Hello, Share Hawkers. There haven’t been many humorous aspects to the pandemic. But we did have the hilarious sight of some shoppers staggering from supermarkets under the weight of extra toilet rolls. This madness helped loo-roll maker Accrol (ACRL) see a huge leap in income at the start of the pestilence. Up by 40%, it’s thought.

I start with Joshua’s Advent calendar where window 20 leads neatly to Lyin’ Matt Hancock and the illegal escape of daughter Olaf and her mother Big Nose to stay with Olaf’s grandmother in West Wales. Then I discuss the difference between contrarian investing and bad investing with reference to Peter Brailey’s article today on oil stocks. Finally, I flag up what to expect from 23rd December on this website. Get your camera ready!

It is time once again for the greatest British competition on this planet – yes, folks, the ShareProphets Christmas Red Flags Sweepstakes is back! Sadly Ebenezer Scrooge is locked down in his counting house in the City and is too mean to get internet so you’ll have to make do with this missive from Downing Street instead. But let me not disappoint you, for the prizes are as usual, in line with previous ShareProphets policy, magnific….. oh, I’ve just been told by Rishi that there’s no money left. Oh well – on with the Great British Show (and probably the only one in London).

What a mad year for oil sector investors. We entered with Brent at $68 per barrel. All looked set for a good sector performance, then the oil price fell off a cliff to $16 Brent before recovering to $52 as I type. I stuck my neck out previously predicting some negative pricing and WTI subsequently went spectacularly negative some weeks later. I’m going to try my luck a second time and give my view for what next year may hold in store.

It was Harold Wilson who said that a week is a long time in politics. It seems now that a day is an eternity. One moment Christmas is all on, the next day it is all off. Yesterday, London and much of the surrounding area were again plunged into crisis: it was placed in Tier 4 of a three tier system  to control Covid-19 – effectively it is in Lockdown 3, only days after Lockdown 2 came to an end. Lockdown 2 must have been a great success then?! I have complained before that it is impossible to run a business under such circumstances – see Tom Winnifrith’s Bearcast yesterday – and consequently, as an investor, investing is made impossible.

So says my good pal, the infamous bear raider Evil Knievil, and he is right. You and I look at a high flying stock where the valuation is insane but where if we go short the valuation can easily go to double insane before gravity kicks in. Especially in fevered times such as those we live in, kicking a man when he is standing strong is not such a smart move.

Here are five long reads that have nothing to do with shares. Put the kettle on, find a comfy chair. You have the time, don’t you? 

Welcome to the Sunday ShareProphets Pub Quiz. Find your own beer, sit in the most comfortable seat, and, under no circumstances, can you Google the answer. Only I can do that. There are no prizes but post your scores in the comments for bouquets and brickbats.

I start with a Santa Claus and Brexit joke

For the seventh year running, I’m looking for Views from Readers’ Windows. ShareProphets readers have sent in their views from every continent (except Antarctica – but we have had one from the Falklands Islands). We’ve seen pictures of warm, blue seas and, from the opposite end, that sad view from Steve’s window. For 2020, in lieu of a view from your window, I will also accept a picture of your pet, preferably in action. Send them to ‘editorial@shareprophets.com’ and we’ll run them everyday between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

I start with Joshua’s Advent calendar today which features a self-obsessed ruler who lost the plot. That brings me neatly on to today’s news.

Optibiotix (OPTI) has announced that Non Executive Director (NED) Peter Wennstrom – of whom we’d never heard – is to step down to be replaced by Christopher Brinsmead CBE, subject to the completion of regulatory due diligence being carried out by the Company’s Nomad. For a £50 million odd capitalised company, Brinsmead is a real BSD to pick up.

A few years back, Ocado (OCDO) was one of the most reviled companies in the UK with the shares regularly topping Short Tracker’s most shorted table, peaking in 2016 with 20% of the shares out on loan. The short interest is now negligible as the bears (myself included) have been sent packing with the relentless, almost tenfold, rise of the share price over the last few years which has only recently looked to be running out of steam.

People often try to tell me that it isn’t possible to make money by actually investing in AIM oil and gas companies and that they are only worth trading, but I would have to disagree based on some of those that I’ve picked out over the years as having long term potential.

Gold has been rebounding. At the close of November the correction had taken it all the way down to $1760 and it had fallen from almost $1880 in the course of just eight trading sessions. Now it is back at $1880 and it looks as though the bottom of the correction has been put in. So what now?

From the FCA’s spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2019 and thus far in 2020 (by net short position %, those in bold not on the list at the start of 2020) – and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week…

I am quietly warming to (sub-) Standard-listed Panther Metals (PALM), chaired by Kerim Sener of AIM-listed gold producer Ariana Resources (AAU). Both are involved in gold, both are being run very conservatively and, of course, Kerim Sener is involved with both. When I first wrote about this company back in August, I had two main concerns: it is Standard Listed, and Peterhouse was the Broker. Despite those concerns, I picked up a few at 9.6p earlier in the year – a case of following the man (Kerim Sener) – but there may be some good news…..

Hello, Share Scrapers. There was a time when it didn’t really matter much about Blighty’s economy when it came to the value of our biggest shares. If the Dow went up, so did the Footsie. And vice versa. It’s only in recent years that this correlation hasn’t been as strong. But just lately, the strength of a record-breaking Dow, despite the virus, seems to have galvanised shares over here. Now if that’s true, then our shares are going to rise nicely next year. I think most of expected that already, but its nice to have a few American views to back things up. 

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Richard Poulden of Wishbone Gold (WSBN) where – no sniggering at the back – there is a case made why this could be a hundred bagger, and bear raider Gabriel Grego on the markets, shorting and on Penumbra, a potential zero. Plus I have a few thoughts on Deepverge (DVRG), pillow talk at dog Powerhouse (PHE and other matters.You can access the show HERE

United Carpets (UCG) has announced a tender offer it emphasises represents premiums including of “19.05 per cent. to the closing share price on the 17 December… 78.44 per cent. to the nine-month average closing share price”. With the shares currently at 5.875p, what to make of it?…