It was not a good Autumn for AIM listed Shanta Gold (SHG) but the last two RNS statements from the company demonstrate that it is both soundly financed and that, at last, it is delivering operationally. The shares have always had clear latent value it is just that investors have had a number of (utterly valid) reasons for not believing. But the times they are a changing.
The Christmas trading reports from the retailers do not make for pretty reading. There are some who simply cite consumer confidence (or lack of it) in austerity Britain. But I would suggest that there are far wider structural changes afoot, ones that make me wonder if some companies really have a raison d’etre at all going forward. If it did not exist already would anyone bother to establish Mothercare (MTC)? Somehow I rather doubt it. Certainly when it publishes its Christmas trading statement on Thursday it will be grim.
Medical matters are on my mind as I have the Norovirus. But it takes more than that to stop me writing about companies but naturally my mind turns to drugs. Well I was a young man in the sixties – the 1960s not the 1860s before you ask. Talking of ancient history, the market long ago abandoned the assumption that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) would automatically build a pathway for shareholders to a starlight future of endless profits and earnings growth, by simply spending 15% of its sales revenue on R&D, and turning that into an approved blockbuster therapy every few years. In truth, costs rose and progress became more difficult – the return on R&D capital was not acceptable.
On January 10th IQE (IQE), the Wales based supplier of advanced semiconductor wafer products and services IQE announced a $75 million ($60 million on completion and $15 million payable on the third anniversary of completion) acquisition, a £16.5 million placing of new shares with institutional investors at 29p each and a 2012 trading statement. Having tipped the stock at a 28.75p on this very website on November 19th -I am feeling rather smug
FTSE-250 constituent Pace plc (PIC), a developer of technologies and products for PayTV and broadband, has today announced that, following a strong second half year performance, its “full year results are anticipated to be ahead of the board's previous guidance”. The shares have responded by trading approaching 5% higher at 202p, capitalising the company at £625 million. The following reviews the investment proposition here…
Yesterday Greggs (GRG), the leading bakery retailer in the UK with more than 1,670 retail outlets, released an update on trading for the Christmas and New Year period (5 weeks ended 5th January 2013) and for its 2012 financial year (52 weeks ended 29th December 2012). This included that the company anticipates that it “will report full year results broadly in line with expectations when we make our preliminary announcement on 13 March 2013”. However there were caveats and with concerns about the UK economy and consumer spending – particularly on the high street, the following is my take on the current outlook for this company…
Centamin (CEY), the London and Canada listed gold miner operating in Egypt, has announced record quarterly gold production of 85,543 ounces for the period closing December 31st 2012 – taking full year production to 262,958 ounces, a 30% increase on 2011 and above guidance of 250,000 ounces. The shares have responded by currently trading just over 5.5p higher at 49.75p, capitalising the company at just under £550 million. The company emphasises the numbers as “particularly pleasing given the challenges faced during the year” but the announcement also makes clear that challenges remain. The following details my current view…
Domino's Pizza (DOM), now a FTSE-250 constituent, has been a stellar recommendation from me historically during my 12 years at t1ps.com, but I am currently nervous about the UK economy and consumer spending outlook. Does that dim my faith?
AIM-listed blinkx plc (BLNX), which describes itself as “the world’s largest and most advanced video search engine” , has today announced a further partnership deal – this with KoldCast TV, an international television network of original entertainment programming.
AIM listed Funeral homes group Dignity (DTY) is one of those companies whose shares always look expensive, but then always seem to head higher. You always kick yourself for not buying the stock, after all we have an ageing population and so death ( like taxes) looks a sort of one way bet. As it happens, that is not the case. At a share price of £11.02 the company is now capitalised at £603 million. Is this justifiable?
Normally I would consider that a company that will be loss making unto, calendar 2014 but which at 493p trades on a 2014 PE of 103 would be a slam dunk sell. Wandisco (WAND) is just that company and it cannot be described as a tradition Benjamin Graham style value investment. But before Lucien Miers thinks about shorting the stock, I suggest that he reads on. This is not as simple as it sounds.
Ruspetro (RPO) has already served up a profits warning in 2013 and for its timing as much as its substance it is already in line to win an award for the biggest shock of the year. The shares closed Friday at 83.5p, valuing the firm at £278.4 million but given that the release went live at 6.30 PM the stock will be hit hard on Monday. At what point should you buy if at all?
Shares in AIM and Canada-listed Xcite Energy (XEL) hit 395p in January 2011 as it reported on a successful “transformational well” drill on its flagship Bentley oil field in the UK Northern North Sea, 160 kilometres east of the Shetland Isles. However, market disappointment at a 10th May 2011 reserves report on Bentley saw the shares fall from 316.5p to close at 110p just seven weeks later. They hit a low of 67.5p in July 2012 and currently trade at 92.75p – capitalising the company at approaching £270 million. The stock is a darling of the Bulletin Boards. But is it good value?
Because the yield is too low for a bank (in historic terms), Barclays Bank (BARC)shares are clearly viewed by the market as a ‘momentum’ stock; the elementary investment principle being, that because the shares are going up, buy some more?
On 20th December fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) announced that “following the recently-announced export of gold and resumption of fuel supply, operations have now resumed at Sukari.” The market read this as meaning that output and cashflow generation was now back on track. The shares have thus rallied to 39.3p. But this morning, top broker Fox Davies has published a research report stating “We also understand that gold exports have again been suspended.” Well have they? A RNS statement from Centamin is called for pretty urgently. This is a critical matter but the answer does not matter but the episode reminds us of why the shares are a sell.
Suddenly the price of Iron ore has picked up, spurred by a recovery in Chinese Demand. Iron ore stocks have responded with a number showing sharp gains in the past month. Among the winners is Anglesey Mining (AYM) but also Bellzone (BZM) which has assisted its cause with news on both of its projects in the West African country of Guinea. The Bellzone share price has pushed ahead by 3p to 16p over the past month valuing the company at £117 million but some brokers reckon that it could still double from mere. There is a bear case as well as a bull case.
I promised you something for everyone in my 7 tips of the year 2013 and so I now bring you a profitable, cash generative gold producer with exploration upside. As a relatively low cost producer it will keep throwing off cash if the gold price does noting or even falls. At the current gold price it looks very cheap but if, as I expect, gold moves ahead sharply it is very cheap indeed. My sixth tip of the year 2013 is Archipelago Resources (AR.) which, at 60p, is capitalised at £345 million. This is a stock where at $2000 gold you will double your money within a year.
I promised you something for everyone in my 7 tips of the year 2013 and so I now bring you a profitable, very cash generative growth stock with strong defensive qualities and great ( largely contracted) earnings visibility which is very much a growth play. It is run by a bird who is the smartest cookie in tech and has a great track record over many years and although the shares may look highly rated they, in my opinion offer 54% upside on a one year view.
In the vein of providing something for everybody, my second tip of the year is a gold company, AIM listed Kryso Resources (KYS) at 32p. Modestly, I should point out that I first recommended this stock at 13.25p on t1ps.com (my former website for 12 years before I started my new Nifty Fifty venture) in 2007 and so those who took that advice are already well ahead. But the best is yet to come. Kryso is not yet a producer but by next Christmas it will be
Over the next seven days I shall serve up seven tips for 2013. There should be something for everyone. In assembling this magnificent seven I start with company fundamentals and price. But I also take into account my macro-economic assumptions for the next 12 months. And, I am sorry to say, that I am not terribly cheery. I do not see UK GDP growing rapidly. Credit will be hard to obtain and consumer spending will not be strong. As such there is some merit in starting with a solid defensive play and that brings me to fully listed S&U (SUS) at a share price of 915.25p.
The March edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is live featuring 7 share tips, company profiles, interview with Richard Poulden of PCGE, why we fight fraud & fake news on Channel 4, Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, a look at the banksters and much more.
Well this is a company that will sponsor any old crap and let's face it, 95% of Bulletin Board Morons post on the LSE Asylum. As the countdown to the fraud Cloudtag (CTAG) being booted off AIM next week accelerates you kind of sense which stock will be the focus of most entries. The competition rules are simple. Just nominate the daftest post on a BB or on twitter in the comments section below. Once again, our in-house semi-trained loon Wildes is allowed to nominate his own posts. The deadline for entries is midnight on Sunday 26th March. Post away!
The asset strippers who own Master Investor tried to persuade companies exhibiting at Nigel Wray's UK Investor Show to jump ship, promising them that 5,000 attendees would cram into a hall holding less than 3,000 folks. Well here is a photo below of the asset stripper himself, Jim Mellon, staring out on rows of empty seats. In light of that I invite you to examine the photo and offer up a suitable caption. The deadline for entries to be posted in the comments section below, is midnight tonight, Sunday 26th, the day after Master Investor died. RIP.
It is the top of the market so a range of City folks are getting away with behaviour which is, at best , utterly unethical. I name names as I list 10 such offences against basic decency and in some cases the law. And I warn those who are guilty that they will face a backlash and I explain why.
After Saturday's debacle in Islington, there is clearly just 1 major event to go to for those who want to make money from shares - UK Investor Show. To meet more than 120 growth companies and to hear the most amazing cast of speakers you have to be there on April 1 at the QE2 Centre in London. There is just one show to go to so BOOK NOW and join 3,000 other people who want to make money from shares.
This is becoming almost routine. After hours on Friday PrimaryBid announces a material placing opportunity for its members. This weekend it is Premier African Minerals (PREM) which is raising £1.5 million at 0.5p.
I really should not be giving the oxygen of publicity to the half witted duo that is PR Genius Steffi and Sith Lord Zak "Judas" Mir but just to point out how corrupt they are here goes - if you are made of stern stuff there is a video below..
Cloudtag (CTAG) has fessed up to dismal results and to the fact that it cannot get a Nomad to act for it and sign off on its lies and thus its shares will be booted off the AIM casino tonight. It talks of a relisting in the future but then it was telling us just the other day that it would get a new Nomad. But having had since January 10 it has failed. No one will act for this fraud. It is game over.
Gold seems to be tracking sideways pro tem but that does not mean that gold shares will track sideways too. You can make big returns in such a climate claims Steve Todoruk a senior figure within Sprott, the world's leading investor in resource stocks. Steve opines:
It seems as if my father has drunk all the ouzo. Who can blame him? But how will I celebrate if the fraud Cloudtag (CTAG) is booted off AIM today? Join in the fun with our Cloudtag termination clock HERE. Elsewhere I look at Bowleven (BLVN), gosh I loathe its management team, Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO), also run by tossers, and Strategic Equity Capital (SEC).
I owe a lot of my success in investing to Steve Nicandros, CEO of Frontera Resources (FRR), having spoken to him in great detail about his company and investing a lot of money in it as a result.
AIM-listed gold and silver in Turkey play Ariana Resources (AAU) has announced the first gold/silver pour at its new joint venture Kiziltepe plant in Turkey. It has been a long road but this marks the moment when Ariana completes the transition from explorer to producer – cracking news for head honcho Kerim Sener and his team. So what now?
Ho ho ho. Even as it faces insolvency those wags at Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) do so with a sense of humour as they try to spoof us all with news of an even more desperate financing which will keep the lights on until late June. Dr Michael Sinclair you should go on the stage. You really are a hoot.
Tension is mounting for those of us who follow the AIM fraud of the year that is Cloudtag (CTAG). Will any Nomad be so desperate for money that it agrees to act for this company and sign off on its lies? We will find out very soon indeed. So, perhaps for the last time, this contest is in honour of the Onitor groupies. As ever the rules are simple: Just nominate the Bulletin Board post, tweet or video starring the Sith Lord Zak "Judas" Mir that displays complete insanity by posting it in the comments section below. The deadline for entries is midnight on Sunday 2nd April. Post away...
The fraud Cloudtag (CTAG) is almost certain to be booted off the AIM casino tonight. I will also miss it such have been the deranged comments that it has prompted. Last week's contest was sposnored by the LSE Asylum and generated stacks of quality entries as you can see HERE. But the winner, spotted by Warun Boofit was in a class of its own as you can see below
We are already well ahead on this share tip. But we can still see it doubling from here!
Premier African Minerals (PREM) was a company that I had high hopes for a couple of years back, but since then it has largely failed to live up to expectations on the operational front – especially in terms of producing revenue.
Together Robert Sutherland Smith and Tom Winnifrith have now been working in finance for 71 years - the last ten or so together. Tom wishes to stress that RSS accounts for most of that, the great value investor starting his City career at the Unilever Pension Fund the year before Tom was born. In this book they outline 71 tricks of the trade for making money from shares.
Get the first ShareProphets Pocket Guide ebook, EIS - Buying shares with numerous tax breaks. Want to cut your income tax bill, get loss relief if your AIM listed shares go down, pay no CGT, avoid IHT - EIS could be the way and this book explains how.
Most investment books seem to be large enough to keep the front door open and while some contain gems it is hard to find them amid the verbiage. The aim here is to produce a short guide which simply cuts to the chase. I hope that it will provide food for thought for everyone from beginner to expert but whoever you are it should be quick and easy to read and digest.
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