Yesterday Greggs (GRG), the leading bakery retailer in the UK with more than 1,670 retail outlets, released an update on trading for the Christmas and New Year period (5 weeks ended 5th January 2013) and for its 2012 financial year (52 weeks ended 29th December 2012). This included that the company anticipates that it “will report full year results broadly in line with expectations when we make our preliminary announcement on 13 March 2013”. However there were caveats and with concerns about the UK economy and consumer spending – particularly on the high street, the following is my take on the current outlook for this company…
Centamin (CEY), the London and Canada listed gold miner operating in Egypt, has announced record quarterly gold production of 85,543 ounces for the period closing December 31st 2012 – taking full year production to 262,958 ounces, a 30% increase on 2011 and above guidance of 250,000 ounces. The shares have responded by currently trading just over 5.5p higher at 49.75p, capitalising the company at just under £550 million. The company emphasises the numbers as “particularly pleasing given the challenges faced during the year” but the announcement also makes clear that challenges remain. The following details my current view…
Domino's Pizza (DOM), now a FTSE-250 constituent, has been a stellar recommendation from me historically during my 12 years at t1ps.com, but I am currently nervous about the UK economy and consumer spending outlook. Does that dim my faith?
AIM-listed blinkx plc (BLNX), which describes itself as “the world’s largest and most advanced video search engine” , has today announced a further partnership deal – this with KoldCast TV, an international television network of original entertainment programming.
AIM listed Funeral homes group Dignity (DTY) is one of those companies whose shares always look expensive, but then always seem to head higher. You always kick yourself for not buying the stock, after all we have an ageing population and so death ( like taxes) looks a sort of one way bet. As it happens, that is not the case. At a share price of £11.02 the company is now capitalised at £603 million. Is this justifiable?
Normally I would consider that a company that will be loss making unto, calendar 2014 but which at 493p trades on a 2014 PE of 103 would be a slam dunk sell. Wandisco (WAND) is just that company and it cannot be described as a tradition Benjamin Graham style value investment. But before Lucien Miers thinks about shorting the stock, I suggest that he reads on. This is not as simple as it sounds.
Ruspetro (RPO) has already served up a profits warning in 2013 and for its timing as much as its substance it is already in line to win an award for the biggest shock of the year. The shares closed Friday at 83.5p, valuing the firm at £278.4 million but given that the release went live at 6.30 PM the stock will be hit hard on Monday. At what point should you buy if at all?
Shares in AIM and Canada-listed Xcite Energy (XEL) hit 395p in January 2011 as it reported on a successful “transformational well” drill on its flagship Bentley oil field in the UK Northern North Sea, 160 kilometres east of the Shetland Isles. However, market disappointment at a 10th May 2011 reserves report on Bentley saw the shares fall from 316.5p to close at 110p just seven weeks later. They hit a low of 67.5p in July 2012 and currently trade at 92.75p – capitalising the company at approaching £270 million. The stock is a darling of the Bulletin Boards. But is it good value?
Because the yield is too low for a bank (in historic terms), Barclays Bank (BARC)shares are clearly viewed by the market as a ‘momentum’ stock; the elementary investment principle being, that because the shares are going up, buy some more?
On 20th December fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) announced that “following the recently-announced export of gold and resumption of fuel supply, operations have now resumed at Sukari.” The market read this as meaning that output and cashflow generation was now back on track. The shares have thus rallied to 39.3p. But this morning, top broker Fox Davies has published a research report stating “We also understand that gold exports have again been suspended.” Well have they? A RNS statement from Centamin is called for pretty urgently. This is a critical matter but the answer does not matter but the episode reminds us of why the shares are a sell.
Suddenly the price of Iron ore has picked up, spurred by a recovery in Chinese Demand. Iron ore stocks have responded with a number showing sharp gains in the past month. Among the winners is Anglesey Mining (AYM) but also Bellzone (BZM) which has assisted its cause with news on both of its projects in the West African country of Guinea. The Bellzone share price has pushed ahead by 3p to 16p over the past month valuing the company at £117 million but some brokers reckon that it could still double from mere. There is a bear case as well as a bull case.
I promised you something for everyone in my 7 tips of the year 2013 and so I now bring you a profitable, cash generative gold producer with exploration upside. As a relatively low cost producer it will keep throwing off cash if the gold price does noting or even falls. At the current gold price it looks very cheap but if, as I expect, gold moves ahead sharply it is very cheap indeed. My sixth tip of the year 2013 is Archipelago Resources (AR.) which, at 60p, is capitalised at £345 million. This is a stock where at $2000 gold you will double your money within a year.
I promised you something for everyone in my 7 tips of the year 2013 and so I now bring you a profitable, very cash generative growth stock with strong defensive qualities and great ( largely contracted) earnings visibility which is very much a growth play. It is run by a bird who is the smartest cookie in tech and has a great track record over many years and although the shares may look highly rated they, in my opinion offer 54% upside on a one year view.
In the vein of providing something for everybody, my second tip of the year is a gold company, AIM listed Kryso Resources (KYS) at 32p. Modestly, I should point out that I first recommended this stock at 13.25p on t1ps.com (my former website for 12 years before I started my new Nifty Fifty venture) in 2007 and so those who took that advice are already well ahead. But the best is yet to come. Kryso is not yet a producer but by next Christmas it will be
Over the next seven days I shall serve up seven tips for 2013. There should be something for everyone. In assembling this magnificent seven I start with company fundamentals and price. But I also take into account my macro-economic assumptions for the next 12 months. And, I am sorry to say, that I am not terribly cheery. I do not see UK GDP growing rapidly. Credit will be hard to obtain and consumer spending will not be strong. As such there is some merit in starting with a solid defensive play and that brings me to fully listed S&U (SUS) at a share price of 915.25p.
I have always been a fan of Greggs (GRG) the UK’s largest retailer of sausage rolls, puff pastries and all the other sort of comfort food that helped me to become a diabetic. The company has always had net cash, benefitted from operational gearing and delivered solid year on year earnings increases. But in 2012 things appeared to start to go slightly awry and the share price has fallen from 550p at the start of the year to 458p. As recently as 7th November I foreasaw a bounce ( at 470p) but I have been reviewing my assumptions about UK consumer behaviour. As such I apologise for that bad call, a volte face is on the way.I would like to buy this stock as fundamentally it is a good business serving six million Britons each week. But ....
I have tipped fully listed ( and JSE listed) Aquarius Platinum (AQP) three times in my life: once at Red Hot Penny Shares and twice at t1ps.com. Each time we have sold and booked handsome gains but the past 12 months have seen the company have to weather a series of plagues reminiscent of a biblical torment.
Like many junior miners, AIM listed Highland Gold Mining (HGM) has seen its share price decimated during 2012. The stock traded at 197p at the start of the year but now sits at 91p valuing the Russian based gold producer at just shy of £300 million. Indeed during the past few weeks as folks have worried that the great bull run in the gold price is about to end the shares have lost 20%. I do not think gold is heading lower. So is Highland a recovery buy or is the sell-off only just beginning? I sense we may be close to the bottom.
During my twelve years at t1ps.com I tipped fully listed Domino’s Pizza twice. The first time was in June 2001 at 62p – I advised selling at 693p in 2007 (a gain of 1018%). The next time I tipped the shares at 193p in July 2008. The share price is now 494p. Not a bad return for share tip given that there is a decent dividend stream on top. But now we face not only a Christmas trading statement * due out January 8th) but also full year numbers (for the 53 weeks to December 30th) which will be out on 25th February. I am a bit nervous about soft consumer spending, fearing that on the high street at least Christmas will be a washout. So what should one do with Domino’s which is today capitalised at £810 million.
AIM-listed staffing and outsourced support services company, Impellam (IPEL) is a big success from my time at t1ps – the website I founded in 2000 and edited until September of this year when I departed to launch the Nifty Fifty offering. I recommended the shares on t1ps at a share price of 40p in September 2009. Today the stock trades at 315p valuing the company at £141 million after a trading update yesterday. This is still a great long term buy.
The May edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is live featuring three share tips from Gary Newman, the Greek meltown is worse than everyone thinks, and the EU is not fit for purpose plus a photofeature from the 2017 UK Investor Show.
The nauseating Mail on Sunday fawned upon Pippa Middleton and her ghastly family as they celebrated the "wedding of the Year". Bring on the revolution! But perhaps the real wedding of the year should be between our two very own in-house Bulletin Board Morons GrannySnuffs & Wildes who seem made for each other. can you find examples on the LSE Asylum, iii, ADVFN or twitter of comments more idiotic than those of our own dream team? If so post in the comments section below, the deadline is midnight Sunday 28th May.
Arron Banks is a big UKIP backer as is his pal Jim Mellon, although the old asset stripper of Uramin infamy is not actually allowed to vote in the UK as he lives offshore in the Isle of Man. Private Eye this week looks at how the two men have not exactly prospered by backing the underperforming, sub scale, IOM-based, AIM-listed, bank Manx Financial (MFX). It also questions whether Banks is as rich as he claims. Enjoy...
My last piece rather naively thought that Echo Energy’s (ECHO) new institutional equity investor, Spartan Fund, or Pegasus Fund as it became, would want to put its funds in at a fair valuation and thought the share price would go down. I was wrong and must assume that it is all part of the connected group of institutions and individuals here that have led to an insane valuation that appears to indicate that the mere mention of James Parsons is worth £100 million. That is nonsense and this is a massive sell.
It seems to be perfectly acceptable for companies on the Casino to complete fundraisings inadequate to see them solvent. Yesterday at 4.22pm shares in AIM-listed Redx Pharma (REDX) were suspended “pending an announcement” by AIM Regulation (the RNS following at 4.35pm – bit of a rush there fellas?) At no-one-is-watching o’clock (6.35pm: after-after-hours) the company announced that administrators had been appointed - just 3 months after the company had apparently raised £12 million in a placing and open offer. Coke and hookers all round for the Nomad and Brokers concerned. Stale bread and water for those sold this particular pup.
The world's best known resource group Sprott has published its monthly report and warns again that those with no gold exposure will lose out big time. Analyst Troy Reik writes:
Katoro Gold (KAT) was once the joke stock Opera Investments which did appear "accident prone". But it has now had the gold assets of Kibo (KIBO) injected into it, done a fund raise, moved to the AIM Casino and is, apparently, a whole new beast. House broker Beaufort has published a detailed note explaining why the shares should soar from 5.25p to 11.7p. I should note that Kibo retains a 56% stake in Katoro and we own a few Kibo shares.
An “Update on Serious Fraud Office Investigation and Board Change” announcement from Petrofac (PFC) sees the shares currently crashing further in response...
Strat Aero (AERO) the AIM casino listed company that under a former management team repeatedly lied to investors is still a joke. In January and February of this year it raised $1.23 million gross (call it $1.1 million net) promising that 2017 would be a turnaround year. One would hope so - in 2016 it lost c$3.5million. So how is it going? Not well I suggest, judging by a joke RNS today.
This is a major fund raise by FlowGroup (FLOW). It has most of it in the bag and will raise up to £29 million. This is institutional territory but it is - very decently - letting in Private Punters via PrimaryBid with an offer announced at 5.12 PM today and which closes at 9 PM tonight. The up to £4 million being raised is being done at 1p - the shares closed at 1.1p-1.15p. But this is not a party for spivs and flippers this is a proper City fundraise which FOR ONCE you can take part in - but hurry, the deadline is 9PM TONIGHT SIGN UP NOW HERE
I reckon that shares in gold miner Altyn (ALTN) are cheap as you can see HERE. Last week the company did a two day City roadshow (not raising cash) in which it gave a full presentation to fund managers. But why should the City boys & girls playing with other folks cash be the only ones to see the presentation? In that spirit...
Hello Share Crunchers. I hold stock in an awful lot of oil producers, perhaps too many. But one company which has never lit my fire is Cairn Energy (CNE). Maybe I should dip in, though.
The great bear raider Wassem Shakoor has termed Frontera (FRR) as one of the three most overvalued bits of crap on AIM. Another is MySquar (MYSQ) where Lucian Miers has just published a devestating expose HERE. Back to Frontera where Waseem has stuck it to the Bulletin Board Morons today. He writes:
There are plenty of companies on AIM where it is hard to see where the value is and why private investors are so keen to chuck their savings into the shares, and BOS GLOBAL Holdings (BOS) would certainly seem to fit the bill!
Four times in the past three or four months we have advised our readers to bank big gains on shares we tipped - the one before the one before last was a 77% profit (offer to bid ) in just 12 days. But though we target quick gains, most tips take rather longer to make money for our readers. take Falanx (FLX) we tipped it last year at a 4.75p offer - it is a solid cashed up fast growing cyber security play. We like it so much we own a few shares too but won't be selling any of them till after our readers bank big gains. The shares are now 9.5p -10p! That is a potential 100% offer to bid profit!
Results announced by 1Spatial (SPA) for its year ended 31st January 2017 are disappointing – though we previously stated they would be and note new management’s current year objective “to ensure that we generate cash and profitable adjusted EBITDA, as well as follow through on key strategic initiatives… Early trading in Q1 2018 has been strong”.
A chap for whom I have some time some of the time asked me why bother sticking it to Arian Silver (AGQ), a worthless piece of crap on AIM. Will it make any difference to the charade, to the game which sees userless tossers like Arian's CEO Jim Williams get ever richer, crony capitalists earn fat fees and investors get buggered again and again and again. No. My writings won't change that. And the chap is right in that it will just make a few more pathetic wretches who would rather lose money than accept the truth hate me. Yup. He is right.
Together Robert Sutherland Smith and Tom Winnifrith have now been working in finance for 71 years - the last ten or so together. Tom wishes to stress that RSS accounts for most of that, the great value investor starting his City career at the Unilever Pension Fund the year before Tom was born. In this book they outline 71 tricks of the trade for making money from shares.
Get the first ShareProphets Pocket Guide ebook, EIS - Buying shares with numerous tax breaks. Want to cut your income tax bill, get loss relief if your AIM listed shares go down, pay no CGT, avoid IHT - EIS could be the way and this book explains how.
Most investment books seem to be large enough to keep the front door open and while some contain gems it is hard to find them amid the verbiage. The aim here is to produce a short guide which simply cuts to the chase. I hope that it will provide food for thought for everyone from beginner to expert but whoever you are it should be quick and easy to read and digest.
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