Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Naivete is not a sin and I really do take it all back about PR genius Steffi - what a nice woman
Published 111 days ago
For five and a half years, uranium stocks have been mired in a historic bear market, ignited by the Fukushima disaster. That was until November of 2016 when uranium stocks quietly began creeping their way up. And now they are set to roar according to Palisade Capital which writes:
Published 133 days ago
Gold investors are a little worried in the last week. On election night, gold shot up $60, while the DOW went down 800 to 900 points. In the morning, gold was down and the DOW was way up! Some people are thinking we are back in a bear market, we need to sell everything- gold is done. Jordan Roy-Byrne argues that this is exactly the wrong kind of thinking. He says:
Published 383 days ago
Hello Share Flingers. For quite a few months now, I've abandoned my earlier practice of looking only at the stocks I hold, in the conviction that I should not put commebdations your way that I haven't the courage to invest in myself.
Published 395 days ago
The February edition of UK Investor Show magazine is now live featuring company interviews with Kefi Minerals and Coinsilium, three sells (from myself, Tom Winnifrith), gold (caveat emptor), how to make money in a bear market and more. You can download your free copy below.
Published 411 days ago
As the equity markets deteriorate and the price of gold increases more and more mining companies are becoming financially viable and their share price is increasing substantially. Mining shares are outperforming bullion, which is a classic sign of a bull market. That is what Florian Siegfried, the celebrated fund manager, argues in the latest podcast with my colleagues at Palisade Capital. As a gold bug I must agree.
Published 412 days ago
Hello Share Trundlers. Having just seen the new film ‘Dad’s Army’, I keep recalling the desperate question ‘Permission to panic. Captain?’ In the case of your share portfolio, I would say ’No’.
Published 428 days ago
Yes that is a glass of ouzo on the lectern. In part one of my presentation (HERE) I explained why my world view and stockmarket view remained bearish. In the second part I offered up specific ways (shares to short) and general ways to make money in a bear market.
Published 428 days ago
The stock market sell off came amid concerns that the stock market slide itself together with the slowdown in China will cause more capital outflows. Faced with a falling stock market and growing pessimism about the economy, investors are moving money out of China and into countries with better returns.
Published 430 days ago
There’s was no shortage of excellent commentary from market heavyweights last week thanks to the World Economic Forum in Davos, but the most revealing probably came from George Soros who gave a sweeping interview to Bloomberg TV, on Thursday, touching on everything from China to Fed policy to Vladimir Putin to Europe’s worsening refugee crisis. As for China, Soros says he “expects a hard landing,” saying that "A hard landing is practically unavoidable," and adding. "I’m not expecting it, I’m observing it.
Published 454 days ago
As a gold bug I look forward to 2016 with high hopes that the bear market is over and that the snap back will be rapid. But perhaps silver is an even better bet. That is the thesis of David Morgan - he explains all to my colleagues at Palisade Capital in their latest podcast.
Published 479 days ago
I am a gold bug so I certainly dont disagree with industry legend Rick Rule of Sprott. The depth of a bull market speaks to the size of the recovery and Rick believes that this bear market could be one for the history books. But when will the bear end?
Published 584 days ago
I leave it to Steve Moore to have the pleasure of plunging the knife into the dog blinkx (BLNX) after its profits warning HERE. It is a dog pure and simple and the shares, at 21p, are a stonking sell with a 12p target for starters. On the matter of blinkx we long term bears are again vindicated while the self-proclaimed expert on the stock, the disgraced ramper Roger Lawson of ShareSoc is one more shown up as a fool as well as a knave. But now to EBITDA.
Published 596 days ago
It’s great to see a mining company on AIM doing exactly what it said it would do, especially in the current climate. This morning, Kibo Mining (KIBO) delivered its latest important milestone, on schedule. The company has released the findings of Phase 2 Stage 1 of its development plan for the Mbeya Coal to Power Project in Tanzania. Based on exploiting the 109.39mt inferred and indicated resource at the Rukwa coal deposit, this represents another significant step forward for Kibo. It’s now something of a surprise to see the company’s share price trading at 4.75p. Up only 0.63p on the day, it seems likely that Kibo’s shares are held back by the general headwinds blowing a gale against the resource sector. Unperturbed, the company continues to push forward.
Published 599 days ago
Is the stock market about to crash? Is gold the place to be? You know that my answers to those questions are YES and YES. But perhaps the crash is already underway.
Published 609 days ago
As a former online poker player, I learned two things from that excruciatingly dull game. First, life is too short. Second, how important it is to play the averages. I’ve probably gained the most from the first lesson, but the second has proven to be surprisingly valuable on a daily basis. It taught me that consistent success often requires making counter-intuitive calls based purely on the long-term mathematical probability of success of repeating the same decision. This technique can often be applied to trading AIM stocks and at current levels Red Rock Resources (RRR) might present just such a set up.
Published 630 days ago
Hello Share Swingers. One of the earliest saying of Warren Buffet, the world’s second richest man who did it all with shares, was this. It doesn’t matter if the stock markets are falling - as long as you don’t want the money in a hurry.
Published 670 days ago
Okay I am a perma gold bull but the past few years have been pretty dire. But might the end of the gold bear market be in sight? My colleague at Palisade Capital, Jordan Roy-Byrne this week looks at four previous bear markets and sees signs from that that this one is drawing to a close
Published 810 days ago
John Embry, is the Chief Portfolio Strategist at the world’s largest resource investor Sprott. This market for gold and gold stocks is the worst he’s seen for 40 years, he noted in a recent interview. But what happened 39 years ago. The interview is a fascinating insight from a man with unmatched experience.
Published 812 days ago
I am really surprised at the number of commentators and ordinary shareholders, who view the current valuation of oil stocks as a God-given buying opportunity. As I’ve written before, all the evidence suggests we are in the early phases of an aggressive global price war. Saudi Arabia (and for that read OPEC) appears determined to crush the US “fracking boom”, through a sustained campaign of price suppression. Times are almost certainly going to get a lot tougher before they improve. Any talk of farm-outs or a flurry of deal making seems greatly misplaced. This morning, Global Energy Development (GED) released an announcement, far more in keeping with the times.
Published 823 days ago
My general view on equities is mildly bearish as I explained in my macro calls piece HERE. As such I will be serving up 5 longs and five shorts as my tips of the year. The first long was HERE and the first short HERE. Now for Number 3, Globo (GBO), the sort of flim flam that will suffer badly in a bear market.
Published 838 days ago
Two weeks ago we had a lively debate on ShareProphets in response to OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its 166th Meeting. Articles and comments flew backwards and forwards, as we all played the wonderful guessing game of predicting world events. Chris Oil and Paul Curtis led the charge for the bulls, while I fought a rear guard action on behalf of the bears. So far, it looks like the market is on my side and there is another argument, which reinforces my bearish view. OPEC’s production targets are not rigidly enforced.
Published 888 days ago
Have I mentioned Quindell (QPP) yet today? You want more? Okay it gets a mention in the podcast as does Forte Energy and the whole issue of death spirals. The Horse Hill stocks are all mentioned as is Omega Diagnostics, the nature of bear markets and the importance of earnings visibility.
Published 913 days ago
It has amazed me how writing for ShareProphets attracts the unwanted attentions of crazies. As soon as you write anything that is perceived as being vaguely negative about a treasured stock, the nutters come crawling out of the woodwork to launch tirades of social media abuse. I won’t name the chief cheerleader for Regency Mines (RGM), but this person took exception to my comment at the end of July that it was “surely only a matter of time” before Regency placed. Tweet followed email followed Tweet about what utter rot (not the word used by my avid fan) I was talking, how I didn’t know anything about the company and there was no way it would place. Well, after today’s announcement, Regency has placed twice in the last seven weeks. What a shock. Perhaps some readers of ShareProphets would do well to spend a little less time frantically bashing keyboards and a little more time reading Tom and mine’s latest book “The 49 Golden Rules of Making Money from Oil, Gas & Mining Stocks”.
Published 918 days ago
I have said many times that the bull market of 2009-2014 is not the first leg of an even greater bull market that could last many, many years as many believe. The reason the stock market appears to be a one way bet is that stock prices have been inflated by the central banks. The question is: can we trust central banks?
Published 965 days ago
Hello Share Wafters: When shares fall there is a perception that we should sell before things get worse. Whenever I have tried this, my recently-sold stocks have staged a miraculous recovery.
Published 967 days ago
It’s hard to look like a genius in a bear market. This is exactly where we are today. Bear markets don’t last forever and nor, sadly, do bull markets. You look like a fool in a bear market and like a professor in a bull market, the trick is to not do too badly when markets slump and to do really well when they rally.
Published 985 days ago
Recorded in his Greek hovel half way up a mountain, Tom Winnifrith brings you his latest weekly video postcard and having dealt with rats and snakes all week in Greece his mind naturally turns to AIM.
Published 985 days ago
While most have been conveniently blaming the tepid first quarter -2.9% GDP growth figure on the weather, we believe that it is just another symptom of a much deeper malaise. As we have argued many times before (see, for example, the March 2014 Markets at a Glance), the U.S. economy has been on life support, graciously provided by Central Planners. However hard they try, they will soon realize that no amount of money printing can cleanse the rot of the U.S. economy.
Published 1035 days ago
Standard Chartered (STAN) was one of the best performing financial stocks until the debt bubble burst in 2007. While the stock has recovered relatively well from the financial meltdown, it has yet to make a new high above the December 2007 high [1975p]. The stock is still in a bear market and a possible shorting opportunity could be brewing.
Published 1448 days ago
Overall it can been seen from the daily chart of Jubilee Platinum (JLP) that we have been looking at a cross between a 3 steps down / 2 steps back up decline, and what the optimists might suggest is a range, but which from a technical perspective really is a “sell into strength” bear market.