Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Naivete is not a sin and I really do take it all back about PR genius Steffi - what a nice woman
Published 78 days ago
I start by explaining why Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit is a freak!. it is all to do with Star Wars. Then it is onto TrakM8 (TRAK) following my kerboom article of earlier. I make specific points about Paul Scott's favourite dog but then general points about why company's acquire and why that turns me off.
Published 97 days ago
Best FTSE-100 short for 2017? After musing about the property stocks I chanced upon Wolseley’s (WOS) epic push towards a 50 quid share price. First congratulations to anyone who picked up shares in the plumbing and building industry supplier at the time of the Brexit referendum vote for around 36 quid. My advice though for 2017 is to sell the shares.
Published 98 days ago
If you want to buy just one new single stock in the FTSE-100 for 2017 you need to look at the perceived Brexit losers given, over the course of the next 12 months, Brexit apocalypse will move further away via delays and position dilution. Forget big overseas earners as this backdrop will crimp their translated back into Sterling earnings so it has to be more domestic plays. And filtering for market leadership, strong balance sheet and continued growth hopes I end up with Whitbread (WTB) the owner of the Costa Coffee and Premier Inn franchises.
Published 184 days ago
As I will publish one day as ‘Chris Bailey’s guide to reading regulatory news statements’, rule 354 is ‘worry about any retail company that starts talking about the price of their products in a RNS’. Normally such price disclosures highlight desperation and hence Sainsbury’s (SBRY) musings earlier today that…
Published 296 days ago
If you are interested in retail shares then one of the more sensible uses of your research time would be to become familiar with the output of Kantar. Even for cheapskates like me there is a reasonable flow of free insights from the business research consultancy to provide a bit of colour.
Published 319 days ago
This was meant to be just a fun debate to start the day with a few laughs. Girly swat Chris Bailey took it really seriously but other competitors myself, Malcolm Stacey, Colin Bird, Dominic Frisby were more relaxed. Speaking for gold Andrew Bell was so relaxed he forgot to turn up but Jan Nelson stood in at the last minute. I explain what a balloon debate is in the video. Enjoy.
Published 319 days ago
After Saracens European triumph on Saturday I imagine that Nigel Wray will be a happy man. He was at the centre of the value investing panel at UK Investor Show with Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit, Paul Jourdan of Amati and myself, Tom Winnifrith. Enjoy
Published 329 days ago
I rather think that the lineup of main writers is now complete. Joining myself, Malcolm Stacey, Amanda Van Dyke, Lucian Miers, Steve Moore, Nigel Somerville, Gary Newman, Chris Bailey, Thierry Laduguie, Evil Banksta and Cynical Bear we now - as of today - have Baby Bear, aka Graham Neary on board.
Published 339 days ago
Gold seems to be in an uptrend so maybe it is time to get a bit of exposure to the gold sector once more? But how? We adsked ten writers connected to this site and/or speaking at UK Investor show on Saturday if they had to bet the ranch on one stock what would it be?
Published 341 days ago
What characteristics do you like to see in an equity? How about revenue and profit growth, free cash flow generation, relatively modest debt levels, an experienced and sensible management team, taking market share against peers and a good capability this could continue over the next few years? And how about for the icing on the cake: a low valuation and increasing dividend capability?
Published 361 days ago
I don’t need to write another love-up article on Randgold Resources (RRS) because with the shares up 50% odd year-to-date you should be looking elsewhere for a bit of relative value. Extending this line of thinking today’s announcement from Polymetal (POLY) is another common sense corporate update from the Russia-focused gold play. Yes I have used the words ‘Russia-focused’ and ‘common sense’ in the same sentence.
Published 386 days ago
Back at the turn of the year I chose DS Smith (SMDS) as my second share tip of the year noting that the corrugated board and packaging company was:
Published 420 days ago
The January edition of UK Investor Show magazine is now live featuring an astounding 79 share tips, three sells (from TW), company profile on Avesco, buys from Zak and Chris Bailey, an interview with Zafar Karim, CEO Legendary Investments and more. You can download your free copy below.
Published 460 days ago
Unless you want to stop the conversation dead one tip for a smooth running social gathering event is never to mention corrugated board or packaging. Nevertheless in the ever more consumer convenience world we all live in such products become intimately aligned with ecommerce and retailer brand differentiator trends and that’s why corrugated board and packaging are growing faster than underlying GDP.
Published 461 days ago
My first tip of the year has to come attached with a mea culpa. I tipped BHP Billiton (BLT) at 1000p a share a few months ago and after a suitable disclosure delay bought stock. Since then I have also bought shares below 900p, below 800p and reasonably recently below 700p per share. The clock does not completely reset with a new year but for those investors who joined me in investing at around the 1000p a share level I offer my apologies…but also my advice to double up now.
Published 463 days ago
On the long tack, it is congratulations to Tom Winnifrith with OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) soaring by more than 300%. Kudos also to Steve Moore (K3 Business Technology, KBT, +62% and Impellam Group, IPEL, +57%), Malcolm Stacey (Zytronic, ZYT, +43%), Chris Bailey (Coca-Cola HBC, CCH, +25%) and last of the double digit gainers Nigel Somerville (Core VCT, +11%). On the other hand, it is commiserations to…
Published 467 days ago
And now another main stage presentation from Gold & Bears with the Van Goddess, Amanda Van Dyke leading a resources panel including Chris Bailey, Willem Middlekoop,Chris Berry and the CEOs of Bacanora Minerals (BCN), Jubilee Platinum (JLP) and Asiamet (ARS). There is also a main stage stoming by myself, Tom Winnifrith, as I put the Dutch chappy in his place.
Published 473 days ago
ShareProphets Press' NEW book of 2015 is by Tom Winnifrith, Ben Turney, Chris Bailey and the whole ShareProphets team. In it, the writers on the UK's most compelling financial website look for the eight shares to take advantage of by buying ahead of the 'Santa Rally'.
Published 474 days ago
Spooked by the market sell-off last week, starting to think it will be a Santa sleigh crash in the City? Fear not, Chris Bailey of Financial Oribit discusses the myriad current challenges in the global economy, a hoped for Christmas wish list and why now is not a time for panic selling.
Published 476 days ago
Let me know if you can find a sector more opaque than the insurance sector. In too many years of pacing through corporate reports I cannot think of a sector that consistently bamboozles even experienced analysts with all sorts of anachronistic terminology.
Published 496 days ago
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews 2016 growth rates & policies, sentiment insights, the reason we need to be thankful to China and what we should think about a mega El Nino.
Published 496 days ago
Six months ago after rhapsodising about the 4.5%+ dividend yield I described the Royal Mail (RMG) as:
‘…a brand that has persisted for hundreds of years and it is not going away. As a balance to your blood, guts and violence capital gain stocks it works’
And in that sense the outperformance versus the broader FTSE-100 index since then has been pleasing to note albeit still down a handful of percent since the call was made versus 10% for the UK’s large cap index. Of course you can’t eat relative performance…but that’s where that dividend comes in.
Published 497 days ago
Back in September I confessed to the ShareProphets readers that I had been making some semi-regular visits to my local 99p Store. I also called a sell/avoid/short on Poundland (PLND) shares and it is the latter which has to interest us today following a litany of disasters in the company’s interim results statement today.
Published 504 days ago
A month ago almost to the day (link here) I wrote on the luxury retailer Burberry (BRBY) that:
‘The direction of Burberry shares over the next six months does largely depend on how Chinese performance is perceived. I think they surprise these low expectations and extrapolations…And this makes Burberry shares (still) a buy today’.
Today’s formal six month numbers to the end of September released today reiterate this view.
Published 505 days ago
In the Thursday earnings season results frenzy I knew that Rolls Royce’s (RR/) interim management statement was going to be of the ‘excitable’ nature when the first emboldened headline of the statement was ‘fundamentally strong portfolio of products’.
Published 507 days ago
With Santa apparently due to make his big arrival at my local garden centre next Saturday the starting gun has been fired for the rundown to the end of the year. And for the medium-term investor in me this only means one thing: which sectors, themes and stocks are looking interesting for 2016?
Published 507 days ago
There are some events which transcend normal investment analysis. The shocking scenes of devastation over the last few days from the area around the Samarco iron-ore mine in Brazil following the unintended release of mine tailings received a lot of press coverage. As the co-owner (along with the Brazilian business Vale) BHP Billiton (BLT) correctly in a regulatory disclosure earlier today ‘offered its full support to help the immediate rescue efforts and to assist with the investigation’ and made its ‘immediate priority…the welfare of the Samarco workforce and the local communities’. None of this of course will bring back those who have lost their lives.
Published 508 days ago
I actually was not going to write-up Thursday’s quarterly update from the world’s best larger cap gold mining stock Randgold Resources (RRS). The numbers showed good progress: rising production at an attractively low cash cost, a building net cash balance and exciting prospective exploration development opportunities.
Published 509 days ago
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks discusses US wage increases, global money supply action, signalling from a major European corporate, the US$ and sector opportunities and a ludicrous list of things to do before breakfast.
Published 516 days ago
Market abuser Chris Oil is a big investor in Lenigas Cuba whose IPO will be a car crash on Monday. Thus he and David Lenigas are best buddies these days. Their twitter exchanges last week are disgusting as they celebrate closing down their critics. Prepare to be made nauseous by these ghastly individuals.
Published 517 days ago
In this week's global investment enhanced podcast, Chris Bailey the Founder of Financial Orbit discusses the strong October performance in financial markets, the challenges to Federal Reserve policy, why China is making correct policy changes, a full update on the quarterly corporate earnings round and presents a chart that perfectly explains the investment industry.
Published 520 days ago
The last time I wrote about Chemring (CHG) I noted the lack of questions on its conference call and noted that a lack of interest is generally good news for investors. All eyes are on the defense company today though as it punches up an RNS shocker combining a sounds-almost-certain potential delay to an ammunitions contract with a right issue. Quelle surprise the shares have been slammed over 30%!
Published 520 days ago
The global mega cap energy sector reporting period kicked off today with BP (BP/) reporting 'underlying profit of US$1.8bn for the third quarter of 2015, up US$500m on the previous quarter, along with plans to rebalance its financial framework and grow value long term'. Well that sounds like something for everyone then: profits sequentially up and more than a hint or two about the importance of remunerating it shareholders.
Published 524 days ago
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks is a special with commentary from the presentation slides Chris Bailey gave on Friday at the London Investor Show on the subject of 'Five Global Investment Themes for 2016'
Published 528 days ago
Today's podcast finds me in a panic as Oakley and I need to do frantic tidying before the Mrs returns to cover our respective sins. Meanwhile Tara the cat is also misbehaving. On the agenda - the great unravels at LGO Energy (LGO) but more especially Tribal Group (TRB) - the latter getting a thorough analysis. Then it is onto JQW (JQW), Alba Minerals (ALba) and the Horse Hill/Horse Shite prospect and Michelmersh Brick (MBH) which leaves me confused, perhaps Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit is geekish enough to assist?
Published 531 days ago
This edition of Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the latest macroeconomic news including some troubling data in the United States, a clear slowdown in global trade volumes and the improvement in the gold price. Drawing on these insights five investment themes pertinent to this backdrop - along with relevant individual stock examples - are discussed.
Published 532 days ago
Six weeks ago when I wrote an article for ShareProphets’ e-book The Magnificent Seven I wrote about a business with…
‘…real heritage and was founded a mere 159 years ago in 1856. It is a large business and nestles happily in the FTSE-100 supported by brands that have a growing global appeal with net cash on its balance sheet, good free cash flow generation and a progressive dividend yield of currently just below 3%. The company used to just sell its wares from an expensive shop location but today interacts with its fans and followers digitally to such an extent that a couple of years ago its previous CEO was poached by a small technology company you may have heard of called Apple to assist with their digital brand positioning’
Well more fool me. Burberry (BRBY) may have risen pleasantly in the month or so immediately after the e-book publication but today’s shocker statement and share price moves puts me at a loss today versus my tip level.
Published 540 days ago
Which of the following do you believe is more important as a guide to Tesco’s (TSCO) corporate well-being?
Published 545 days ago
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the past week's financial news including discussion on the latest economic data, poor sentiment but also opportunities for investors due to the high correlation of sectors and stocks plus the general pessimism of investors.
Published 545 days ago
Issue 4 of the UK Investor Show Magazine is now out and can be accessed below. Jim Mellon, Rob Terry (prison update), the stockmarket crash (a buying opportunity?), Advanced Oncotherapy, 6 other share tips, accounting for Geeks from myself and Chris Bailey. There is something for everyone.
Published 549 days ago
Allegedly the best things come in small packages…well not today if you are a Vodafone (VOD) shareholder. Below – in its entirety – is a regulatory news service update from the company that hit the wires at just after 7am today:
Published 550 days ago
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the past week's financial news including thoughts on seasonality, the global manufacturing PMI numbers, fund manager sentiment and insights from Caterpillar...and VW.
Published 553 days ago
Dear readers…time for another confession. I may have over the last few months enjoyed shopping at my local 99p Store snaffling a bargain or ten (£9.91 worth!) of relatively near-date cereal, biscuits and chocolate not to mention various household goods.
Published 557 days ago
Bit of a Swiss surprise today with the news that Zurich Insurance is ending its 550p bid for Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA). Normally when a proposed deal falls apart it is because the bidder has found something dodgy in its detailed due diligence – and let’s face it insurance accounting is opaque at best. However this time the issue is all with the seemingly not-so-prudent Swiss with the management at Zurich noting ‘the deterioration in profitability in certain parts of the(ir) General Insurance business’ which it has to sort out first before it could even consider completing a bid on another insurance company like RSA.
Published 559 days ago
Way back at the start of the year one big picture investment theme I had a good deal of sympathy for was that bond investors would have to get used to the term ‘haircut’ (a cut in anticipated coupons/principal repayment cash flows) reflecting the reality of too many crud balance sheets out there. I still believe Greek government bonds have that capability given time and a variety of energy sector bonds look deeply shocking but yesterday the Ukrainian Parliament voted through an agreement struck with its largest bond creditors which included a 20% haircut on its sovereign bonds.
Published 559 days ago
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the past week's financial news including thoughts on the Federal Reserve, 5,000 year lows in interest rates, whether QE will be expanded or not and why we should not fear a structural fall in corporate profitability over the next generation.
Published 562 days ago
Let’s review recent events at the self-styled mining giant Glencore (GLEN). A month or so ago Glencore management gave a pretty clear view in its post results conference call that the balance sheet was strong enough not to raise money. Nine days ago bullied by panicky ‘key stakeholders’ (i.e. big institutional shareholders) the company announced a surprise range of initiatives as I noted here to strengthen their balance sheet. On the accompanying conference call the management noted cost cuts, mine mothballing and disposals were all way preferable to an equity money raising but that – once again – they would be sounding out the company’s ‘key stakeholders’ to gauge their views.
Published 566 days ago
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks enhanced podcast by Chris Bailey, focuses on the week's key macroeconomic news and why the key remains specific theme and individual stock selection in the current market backdrop. This edition focuses on current market challenges, reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic, plus also why cheap breakfasts and inexperienced CEOs provide insight.
Published 570 days ago
Well, well, well. For me today’s number one most interesting UK regulatory news update was from Glencore (GLEN). Just nineteen short days ago after listening to the management of the FTSE-100 mining/commodity trading company confirm their faith in their balance sheet and general corporate approach, Glencore have unveiled a range of initiatives including a US$2.5bn of new equity issuance, the suspension of the dividend for at least the next year and various asset sales and mothballing actions to slash US$10bn from their net debt pile. Well I did warn at the above link that Glencore was ‘still too much of a full-on risk situation to get involved – and don’t believe that 9% dividend yield many data providers are highlighting at the moment…Enthusiasts for large cap mining investment should continue to prefer Randgold Resources (RRS)…or…BHP Billiton (BLT)…(companies) with a proper underpinned dividend and little debt’. For the one-line summary this remains my view.
Published 571 days ago
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks enhanced podcast by Chris Bailey focuses on the week's key macroeconomic news and why it is so important to stick to specific theme and individual stock picking. This is especially the case when the market is in the grips of a panic, as it appears to be now.
Published 579 days ago
In the latest edition of Financial Orbit Speaks, focuses on market volatility, the response of financial markets and what investors prospectively should be thinking about.
Published 583 days ago
My formative investment years were so long ago that I remember the daily thump that announced the arrival of the physical research pile from a variety of investment banks. As a callow youth I used to devour these publications believing them to be a route to insight and riches. The latter was true – although almost exclusively not to the readers of such ‘research’. The reason for this walk down memory lane was that I was reminded by an article from Tom Winnifrith of a report I kept by my desk for months titled something like ‘why EV/EBITDA is the most important statistic for fund managers today’. Suffice to say the quality of my investment insights all those years ago improved materially after I had a desk tidy-up…
Published 584 days ago
Who ever said that large cap equities could not be exciting? A quick glance at the share price graph of the world’s largest miner BHP Billiton (BLT) shows that even a miner with lowest quartile production costs, rising volumes, low debt and a progressive high single digit dividend yield can still struggle against the might of negative investor sentiment towards the space.
Published 587 days ago
In the latest edition of Financial Orbit Speaks Chris Bailey reviews the reasons for the volatility in financial markets...and where to position portfolios to benefit from the next shifts.
Published 589 days ago
Do the Poles drink vodka? I learnt today listening to the results call of Stock Spirits (STCK) that apparently the drink made from the distillation of fermented cereal grains or potatoes accounts for 90% of the Polish spirits market. Surely good news then for the mid cap producer and distributor of vodka brands such as the catchily named Zoladkowa, 1906 and (inevitably) Stock Prestige who is generally regarded as having Poland’s largest market share in the area.
Published 590 days ago
For the mining sector the last couple of years have been almost a perfect storm with its biggest customer China having a growth slowdown and strength in the US dollar further crimping demand. Throw in too the lagged impact of new mines commissioned in more bullish times coming on stream the supply/demand balance has been dire. And so shares in the sector have plunged.
Published 594 days ago
In the latest edition of Financial Orbit Speaks, Chris Bailey looks at continuing challenges in Europe despite the likelihood of a third Greek bailout, interpretations around the Chinese yuan movement, issues in the US and why individual corporate equity analysis remains the key.
Published 595 days ago
Greece may only be a handful of percent of Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling’s (CCH) sales and profits but the malaise from the Eurozone’s most indebted member has overhung the share with its Greek heritage and shareholder base.
Published 599 days ago
In the latest edition of Financial Orbit Speaks, Chris Bailey focuses on the impact of the recently strong US dollar, why this is unstable for the global economy and what areas to focus on if this there is a change in financial metric leadership. Click below to listen to the podcast.
Published 599 days ago
I ended my previous write-up on esure (ESUR) with the observation that ‘my conclusion is to leave the shares for other investors. That is – of course – unless it brings that Italian-Welsh mock opera singer back… ‘.
Published 615 days ago
After Tom’s revelation yesterday about LeniGas Cuba’s… how to put this… “mysterious” leap in popularity on Twitter, we’ve been wondering at ShareProphets who else out there likes to pretend they are more popular than they actually are? As it turns out, this is a fun game and here’s how you can play along too.
Published 617 days ago
For those of you bemoaning the decline of British industrial ingenuity I present to you Johnson Matthey (JMAT): a company with a 19 Century heritage, the name of a provincial solicitor but 21st Century appeal. Here’s why.
Published 641 days ago
Well hello again a 225p Tesco (TSCO) share price. Friday’s trading update still has plenty of grim headline news contained within it (-1.3% UK like-for-like sales performance and a general food retail market that is ‘still challenging and volatility is likely to remain a feature of short-term performance’) but Tesco shares had a better day.
Published 646 days ago
I am a strong believer in accountability and that’s why you will often find me referencing previous articles (good or bad) I have written on ShareProphets. Chemring’s (CHG) results stood out to me today as I have written before about the specialty defence company noting approximately a year ago at approximately the same share price that the share was worth holding.
Published 651 days ago
Hands up if you know someone who is still crazy about loom bands? If I had asked that question a year ago I would have been inundated by parents bemoaning the hundreds of tiny plastic bands everywhere in their homes not to mention the number of ‘right on’ people actually wearing the luminous creations. But today? Tumbleweed…
Published 653 days ago
My name is Chris, I am an experienced investor with years of successful institutional and personal investing behind m,e but I would like to confess guilty to the charge that I have made a bad call. I accept that the Sheriff of AIM in a rare cross-jurisdictional move into the Main Market is correct in his judgements in his generous oral testimony here.
Published 654 days ago
Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit is on my mind for three reasons and I explain why. One of them is APR Energy which I discuss and Chris will post on later. I also look at two China POS stocks, the fraud Sorbic and Auhua Clean Energy. Then at Thor Mining, Trap Oil and Mosman Oil & Gas. Then it is onto the boiler room stocks: Inspirit, Sabien and Flowgroup. Warning: this podcast contains both bad language and also a lot of racist generalisations about folks from Australia and New Zealand with the exception of Kylie Minogue (pictured) who can, of course, do no wrong.
Published 659 days ago
The Depression era US President Franklin Roosevelt is probably not often mentioned on this site but his dictum that ‘there is nothing to fear but fear itself’ is inadvertently one of the best pieces of stock market advice you are likely to read. Let’s consider this in respect of some of Britain’s best loved bank shares Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds (LLOY).
Published 660 days ago
The only story of real interest in UK larger cap shares today is a strategy update by the banking behemoth HSBC (HSBA) which has finally got some focus on what they it wants its business to look like in a few years time. I noted a little over a month ago that:
Published 664 days ago
I read on the internet that ‘the Vodafone logo was designed in 1997 by Saatchi & Saatchi. The colour is red (Pantone 485)’. Well then yesterday there are Pantone 485 coloured faces amongst certain professional investors, as the FTSE-100 giant Vodafone (VOD) said in a regulatory statement today that it was ‘not in discussions with Liberty Global concerning a combination of the two companies’. At the time of writing this knocked a couple of percentage off Vodafone’s share price which now sits over five percent off its multi-year high of a week or two ago.
Published 665 days ago
You have to be careful of trading rules because as soon as they become gospel they tend to not work. I have noticed however that when a stock is booted out of the FTSE-100 it often provides a buying opportunity. This is because in today’s panicky financial market world passive tracker vehicles, which mechanically buy or sell shares depending on inclusion (or not) in an index. Add in the impact of certain ‘clever’ fund managers attempting to anticipate this impact by selling before any such judgement and the quarterly index change period can throw up some opportunities.
Published 670 days ago
As of midnight "flip flop" Ben "pitchfork" Turney will be editing this website as I am on leave for the next six to nine months. Let me explain.
Published 671 days ago
UK Investor Show attendees will know from the presentation I made there that I am a fan of Telecity (TCY) and its exposure, via its range of data centres, to the phenomenal growth in corporate data management requirements. Today was the beginning of the end of the Telecity journey as it was confirmed that its large US peer Equinix will be making a takeover offer half in cash and half in Equinix shares.
Published 674 days ago
A month or so ago at the UK Investor Show I sat on a panel with Ed of Stockopedia and Thierry the technical guru in a screens versus technicals versus fundamentals debate which you can watch here. To cut to the chase my view would be that whilst you should not close your mind off to anything the key for choosing investments for me are fundamental factors like cash flow, selected earnings indicators, the signalling around shareholder remuneration (dividends, buybacks etc) and management credibility and commentary. In short some science (balance sheet), some art (reading primary company documentation) and a slug of psychology appraising the words and actions of management.
Published 682 days ago
If there is one event that should fill investors with glee it is a spin-off. Here’s the theory: a big, complex company decides to allow part of their business to separately list which in turn allows investors to appraise and the market to value the now two separated businesses independently. And guess what? Sometimes 2+2 =5 and sometimes 2+2=3. In my experience it rarely leaves the combined market cap unchanged. This is because either the spin-off is an underappreciated diamond or it is a piece of relative rubbish that investors should run a mile from and dump in the first few weeks of spun-out ownership.
Published 686 days ago
Forget austerity, economic malaise, grinding political angst and the magnitude of Greece’s debt the most important influence on the Greek-tinged but London listed Coca-Cola Hellenic (CCH)'s solid trading update today was… strong Coke Zero sales.
Published 690 days ago
Chris Bailey, the founder of Financial Orbit always finds the quirkiest data - this week it concerns ripe bananas. The bad news starts in China and ends up with some sage words from George Soros. Those who expect the equities surge to continue ad infinitum should spare a few minutes to listen to this podcast.
Published 693 days ago
I am not sure if we should all be thinking about the General Election today or not but hopefully I will be able to squeeze in some time to vote given the newsfest frenzy on shares I am interested in around the world. Last month at the epic UK Investor Show I mentioned four UK stocks to the assembled audience (as you can watch here). Three of them usefully gave interesting updates today.
Published 693 days ago
Also at the bloggers cafe at UK Investor Show 2015 was Chris Bailey, City whizz kid turned editor of Financial Orbit
Published 695 days ago
In my youth I used to come back from overseas investment research trips brimming with new ideas and insights. Having spent much of the period since the superlative UK Investor Show in the US of A I would hope to be able to say that opportunities are a-plenty. But they are not. Here’s a few of my notes from speaking with global investors far cleverer / richer than me at a conference in California a few days ago:
Published 705 days ago
Stockpicking - that is what you all wanted to hear about at the UK Investor Show 2015 and as such a packed out presentation with more than 800 folks crammed into a 700 person theatre came from Ed Croft of Stockopedia, Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit and "the miserable froggie" the great Thierry Laduguie.
Published 708 days ago
It might be a heavy corporate earnings results day around the world but for tomorrow’s business pages the lead story is already obvious following the disclosure earlier by Tesco (TSCO) that it lost a cool £6.4 billion in the last full financial year.
Published 720 days ago
To save me answering a few emails, tickets for the UK Investor Show should start landing today. By tomorrow all bar 40 of the 2000 tickets should have landed so if you have booked and not got a ticket by Thursday PM email me on email@example.com and I will sort it out. The show is now just 10 days away and there are still 40 tickets available so if you want one book NOW at www.UKInvestorshow.com – there are many reasons to book but one is “The bloggers café”
Published 721 days ago
Hello Share Tweakers. The BG (BG.) takeover story started very well with a rise of 40% on the share price of a few days earlier. That was because Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), one of the biggest companies in the Footsie, seek a juicy merger.
Published 722 days ago
Dissatisfied with your chocolate haul at Easter? Well if you are a BG Group (BG.) shareholder than industry behemoth Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) has been kind enough to offer you a late Easter present. Today’s bid may only value BG shares back to a level seen in the middle of last year but at a theoretical near 50% premium to the previously prevailing share price.
Published 731 days ago
If I said ‘Kingfisher plc’ (KGF) to you what would be your first response? Of course many of you are super smart and would immediately tell me that it owns B&Q, Screwfix and the more exotically named Castorama and Brico Depot, which collectively supply us with a range of DIY and home improvement materials across multiple geographies.
Published 735 days ago
I was on an EasyJet (EZJ) plane yesterday and a generally fairly pleasant experience it was too. Admittedly there were not free drinks or nibbles, I had to print out my own boarding card (in a personal technological first I actually downloaded it to my phone – who said you cannot teach an old dog new tricks!) and there were attempts to cross-sell me all sorts of things I did not want but as an overall A-to-B travel experience it was absolutely fine and did what it said on the tin without being too minimalist or crude.
Published 749 days ago
One of the biggest fallacies of this whole investment game is that a sensible individual investor cannot beat the professionals expensively employed in the City of London. As – I guess – a previous member of this latter club let me tell you a little secret: you can…and even in the trading in the largest of large companies out there. Believe me the debate on Tesco (TSCO) on this website was far better than in most ‘professional’ circles.
Published 751 days ago
I admit it: I’m a car insurance price tart. When that time of the year comes around again I am more than happy to dump one car insurer for enough at the merest hint of a lower price for my simple cover requirements. I’m pretty sure I have used esure (ESUR) before but frankly I might be wrong – they all blur into one after a while.
Published 754 days ago
If you spot attractive investment themes early enough then profits should follow. Much more of a challenges is working out what to do when a good structural theme has tactical challenges. Take the temporary power world. Demand by the emerging world for power far outstrips the ability of central governments to provide it and so temporary power providers like Aggreko (AGK) and APR Energy (APR) have a ready market for their services even before you consider opportunities at major sporting events or music festivals. Over the last few years both have cleaned up and today stand proudly as key players in the global industry.
Published 755 days ago
The final gold tickets went last week. There are now fewer than 500 of the 2000 £12 investor class seats left for the show of the year and at current rates they will be gone within weeks so book your seats TODAY for UK Investor Show 2015 and here are 5 reasons why – you can book HERE.
Published 768 days ago
So - apparently - there is some element of a deal for Greece although the more I read about it the more I think that it is nothing really more than kicking the can down the road for four months at most. The trouble is that it does not get to the heart of the problem: debts that still need to be serviced or refinanced. Given the only viable solution is a restructuring (which will have other repercussions) I really struggle to see how ultimately this is nothing more than a sticking plaster. And that is not all that is wrong with the world.
Published 770 days ago
It is always worth taking a look when there is a big fall in a well-owned FTSE-100 stock. Today’s performance dog is Centrica (CNA) which probably supplies many of you via its British Gas brand with gas and electricity and which has blamed a combination of energy price moves, the weather and utility market competition for a 30% fall in earnings per share in 2014…and most strikingly a 30% fall in the dividend it is going to pay.
Published 773 days ago
There are a few candidates for the most interesting UK company update over the last week but high on my list are a couple of updates from the premium carrier neutral data centre operator Telecity (TCY). Regular readers will know it is a share that I have written positively about a number of times over the last year or so, most recently back in December when I noted that while ‘there has been a bit of huffing and puffing on the site about the old CEO’s exit but my view remains this is a business benefiting from the unbelievable growth in data need and usage with pretty reasonable barriers to entry. I’ve bought it three times in 2014 with a ‘6’ in front of it and I would certainly recommend embracing any volatility because ultimately we are going back to the 1000p+ level…’
Published 774 days ago
That is not the official title of this week’s Financial Orbit but my pal Chris Bailey should have used it. This is a most excellent edition covering the insanities of negative bond yields in Europe, the alarming disparity between earnings revisions and equity re-ratings on the S&P, data on new brokerage account openings in China and much else. To my friend Mr Bailey, I say “this is your best issue yet!”
Published 778 days ago
A very pleasing set of numbers from Randgold Resources (RRS) earlier this week confirmed that it is clearly the best larger cap gold company in the world. The Q4/FY update reinforced its consistent achievement of the gold sector’s holy trinity of rising production/grade, all in cost control way under spot gold prices and a solid balance sheet (in its case now with net cash on it).
Published 781 days ago
In the glow of the US jobs number on Friday (don't hold your breath for a quick interest rate rise in my view)...let's get back to some realities: the S&P 500 index is struggling to decisively break the 2,000 index point level. Looking longer term, I look back to 1500 for charting evidence that inflation – and thus rate rises – will come back before that long.
Published 784 days ago
If you want to make money in large cap shares then you have to spot the big changes. Deals can be such transforming events…and updates from two big FTSE-100 heavyweights over the last day or so are noteworthy.
Published 789 days ago
The first Highlights since mid-January due to travel finds the global financial markets at a similar point to which we left it: troubled and hence volatile. Still opportunistic too of course but you need to be brave, skilled or lucky (or maybe all three…).
Published 808 days ago
Tom W has already mentioned a certain Mr Rose earlier today but it is another one of his chairmanship that particularly interests me today and that is at AO World (AO.). I looked at the self-styled ‘leading European online retailer of electrical products’ a few weeks ago and concluded that it would ultimately prove to be a car crash for investors based on an excitable valuation today in a sector with growth but ultimately wafer-thin margins and a high level of competition.
Published 811 days ago
As Tesco (TSCO) shareholders celebrate the return of a share price that begins with a ‘2’ what should we think of the turnaround plan rolled out by the company’s newish CEO Dave Lewis?
Published 815 days ago
How many share tickers can you remember? Of the hundreds that are floating around my head one of my favourites used to be ‘EEEK’ which stood for the eastern / central European focused soft drinks beverage producer/distributor Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling on the Greek stock market. I have to say ‘used to be’ because in a rare display of austerity the ticker today is a truncated ‘EEE’ which is much less memorable.
Published 816 days ago
I am glad to see that Chris Bailey is calling gold and gold stocks as a buy in his 2015 macro themes out today. As a gold bug that is music to my ears. I am still a believer! As is Jeb Handwerger. the editor of GoldStockTrades.com who was interviewed this week by my colleagues at Palisade Capital. Jeb explains clearly why this bombed out sector will rebound in 2015 but also why you have to be selective and how to be selective.
Published 819 days ago
Hopefully I don’t need to elaborate on the observation that the global economy has a few problems otherwise at this stage of the economic ‘rebound’ from the dark days of 2007-9 interest rates would be going up. This warped environment favours a different sort of share and – sorry to say for any current employees who will be impacted – but Aviva’s (AV.) cost cutting heavy takeover of Friends Life (FLG) is just the sort of story that has a strong chance of working next year.
Published 822 days ago
A year ago I tipped Randgold Resources (RRS) as my ‘FTSE-100 tip of the year’ and despite the volatility in the underlying gold price and desperate performance of the average gold miner the tip has done well and has nicely outperformed the UK’s leading share index.
Published 832 days ago
Whilst part 1 was a romp through a few larger cap stories with cost cutting as a core theme, part 2 is a bit more edgy. Looking at 2015 it seems to me that there are two themes that really make investors nervous. The first is growth and the second is underperformance.
Published 851 days ago
No wonder investors are so bullish, we are now officially into the third longst bull market in history. But will it last? In this week's edition of Financial Orbit I flag up a number of worrying indicators. And just for Tom W one of the flashing warning signs is coming for the country where he now seems to live most of the time, Greece.
Published 854 days ago
When we look back on 2014 the market share gains by discounters in the retail sector will be one of the investment themes that will be remembered. There is therefore a certain correctness in the timing of the Poundland (PLND) IPO earlier this year. Unsurprisingly if you were lucky enough to buy some shares early on in its life as a public company you are currently at a capital loss but let’s not be too critical at least the business has shown a bit of form over the last few quarters. It is not easy to generate a 4.7% like-for-like sales growth as Poundland did over the last six months.
Published 863 days ago
I nearly spat out my Sunday morning cornflakes when I read on the Telegraph’s finance section that ‘Quarterly reporting quietly comes to an end’. Yes, apparently, the FCA have concluded that ‘Interim management statements, which generally cover three months of trading, were deemed too short a snapshot of a firm’s performance to properly inform investors’ and in order to encourage longer-term thinking any mandatory requirement to publish detailed has been scrapped.
Published 865 days ago
A month ago global equity markets were in a state of complete panic. Four weeks later markets are substantially up, sentiment has hugely recovered and investors are generally looking forward again to 2015…especially in the US. Despite the market recovery of recent weeks the world remains clearly imbalanced. That’s not to say there are now things to be doing and the technology, food retail and gold sectors were of particular interest to me this week.
Published 872 days ago
There’s a lot going on at the moment. The impact of the US mid-term elections, implications from the monthly ECB meeting in Europe, changes in Russian, Japanese and Chinese policy-making plus volatility in foreign exchange rates and commodities and the ongoing Q3 earnings season (of course). If you pull it all together a casual observer would conclude that the differentials and challenges are building. Funny how not much of this is reflected in investor sentiment or volatility measures. Maybe that’s the dulling impact of expanding global QE. It feels to me much more of a specific world than that.
Published 880 days ago
The end of a particularly brutal and volatile October. Despite the exhausting nature of such financial markets now is not a time to relaxing. I note below the potential for more volatility across multi-asset classes as the combination of US optimism, Japanese policy shifts and European challenges meet with emerging market inherent growth of influence. It is a time of volatility, an importance of putting the work in but also – as far as I can see it – of opportunity too. This remains a stock pickers world and in that context Europe surely offers the greatest opportunities as I explain in this week's Financial Orbit
Published 893 days ago
That was a volatile week! As Fast FT noted though due to the bounce back on Friday it was not a wipe out week for index trackers: “The gains, though, weren't enough to erase losses for the week, with both the S&P 500 and Dow 1 per cent lower over the past five days – the fourth consecutive week of declines”. So what next?
Published 895 days ago
Well what a week and if you are a Rolls Royce (RR/) shareholder what an end to the week…but more on the perils of owning one of the favoured holdings of institutional professional fund managers in a minute.
Published 900 days ago
Stockmarkets were exciting this week. In this issue of Financial Orbit I look at the looming deflation threat in Germany and the EuroZone but flag up the posdsibility of QE 4 in the US. But amid the cranage there is value. The US earnings season has started and I look at a couple of value plays which reported - this is still a stock picker's market.
Published 907 days ago
I should have thought of the phrase myself but Christine Lagarde’s observation that the clear risk for the global economy is of an extended ‘new mediocre’ era fits with many of my observations about the world. Investment life, however, is not about extended pessimism and the most important observation has to be that it will mean individual investment opportunities – namely stock picking – become more important. Starting with the UK:
Published 927 days ago
Back on the final day of January earlier this year I asked the question whether it was ‘time to get the emerging market beers in?’ This slightly strange title question was a reference to the global brewer (with a particularly large geographic focus on Africa and Latin America) SABMiller (SAB), which, at that time, was buffeted by emerging markets concerns and kicking around the £27 share price level.
Published 931 days ago
It would be fair to say an interim results statement from Morrisons (MRW) that reiterated their profit range and debt reduction hopes for the current financial year was not a consensus view amongst the (to quote a Chancellor of the Exchequer of yesteryear) ‘teenage scribblers’ that populate the professional analytical ranks of the City’s investment firms. Still, sentiment towards the company feels as low as it was when I first wrote on the stock a couple of months ago. The shares are certainly still kicking around the 170s.
Published 935 days ago
They say profits warnings come in Threes so is Tesco (TSCO) not a sell now? Chris Bailey reckons that it is a bargain basement buy and has made it the largest holding in his pension as you can see HERE. Clearly there are two points of view.
Published 936 days ago
This week's Financial Orbit starts with the FT celebrating the FTSE 100 hitting a 14 year high despite the Ukraine, ISIS, etc, etc. However back in the real world...
Published 944 days ago
Last business day of the month. Last day of a departing CEO’s corporate reign. Last chance to ‘kitchen sink’ the corporate earnings guidance numbers in the UK’s largest food retailer? A share price back to the level of a decade ago and a 75% cut in the interim dividend does not make pretty headlines.
Published 947 days ago
The post bank holiday cobwebs were well and truly blown away by this morning’s Telecity (TCY) regulatory statement innocuously titled ‘Board Change’. No third level non-executive director shuffling his range of fee paying obligations…no, this was a big one: the resignation of the CEO.
Published 951 days ago
I would hope that most of you have had the opportunity to watch Groundhog Day one of the greatest films, in my view, of the last generation. Fortunately I am not about to go into a reverie about twenty plus year old films but talk about a couple of stock market related Groundhog Days. Bring up a chart of the FTSE-100 over the last couple of years…
Published 956 days ago
Change is good for all of us but in financial market terms it can causes those difficult transition points which investors –extrapolating the past into the future – can dislike. What strikes me most about today’s financial markets is the fusion between change and sentiment.
Published 962 days ago
Sitting on his newly constructed eco-loo in The Greek Hovel, Tom Winnifrith reflects on how much he is enjoying living on Greece but – sadly for Quindell (QPP) shareholders he is going to have to come back to the UK at some stage.
Published 971 days ago
A week ago I published a review of the status of some of my tips I originally made a few months ago (here ). So how about some of the more recent names I have mentioned? I am happy to say that on balance I am, well ahead!
Published 978 days ago
According to the excellent ShareProphets website search functionality it is over 140 days since I wrote a piece titled ‘Update on 8 share tips’. In the spirit of continued openness and accountability, how are these eight tips looking and what would be my view now?
Published 984 days ago
Financial Orbit is one year old - congratulatons to Chris Bailey. This week's edition makes fascinating reading - the 2014/2000 comparisons and clear signals for the world economy from Sweden (yes really) are fascinating. And make grim reading for the bulls.
Published 987 days ago
At the start of the year a Morrisons’ (MRW) share was worth about 270p, whereas today you can own a stake in the UK’s fourth largest supermarket chain at a share price in the 170s. So much for supermarkets being defensive businesses, but is there any hope for this chain?
Published 991 days ago
This week’s issue of Financial Orbit by Chris Bailey explians the Portugal issue and looks at consumer debt and then finds a few more reasons why the bulls should be scared.
Published 1000 days ago
Even Bill Gates has not been immune to a few bad headlines in his wildly successful corporate life. His point is well made, however, and is deeply applicable to the stock market. One of the hardest aspects for anyone – beginner or experienced investor – to fully appreciate is the role of expectations or to put it more simply: what is factored in already. One of the best ways to gauge what is factored into a share price currently is to look at the reaction to what – at first glance – is a good or bad news headline. And this brings us to Serco (SRP).
Published 1001 days ago
Britain’s Buffett, Nigel Wray led the value investing session at UK Investor 2014 and what an educational and sparky session it was as you can see in the video below. Wray was as humble as ever but Britain’s Buffett did not pick up that nickname by chance.
Published 1009 days ago
With events in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine continuing to rumble on, you would have thought that a defence company would be an ideal investment – especially one with strong global market positions in pyrotechnics and countermeasures plus developing exposure in the growing sensors/electronics areas. Chemring (CHG) has been a volatile investment, however, and at the time of writing is once again below 200p a share having been at 285p as recent as March. I noted an opportunity in Chemring shares back in January and enjoyed the sharp rise, but now the shares are back to the multi-year low levels of last November.
Published 1010 days ago
Was it really 187 days ago when I wrote about Croda International (CRDA) and Vedanta (VED) exiting the FTSE-100 and maybe providing a buying opportunity? Vedanta has worked well enough (and I have been taking some profits but, of course, do your own work and come to your own conclusions) but Croda has returned to the c. £22 share price level today it was in mid-December after a short Q2 pre-close statement.
Published 1011 days ago
Time really does just fly past. It has been about a couple of months since my last Highlights publication – apologies for that – but the ever expanding range of activities under the Financial Orbit banner has kept me very busy. The good news is that new articles have been appearing on www.financialorbit.com every day despite the busy schedule…and the even better news is that I am looking to augment this with a restyled highlights piece each Saturday of four or five pages in length (of which this is the first one).
Published 1014 days ago
Despite the inevitable national torpor following events in Brazil yesterday it is time to pull yourself out of the depths of misery and think about shares. Well today one share in particular: the Royal Mail (RMG). Now you probably remember trading this one late last year (or early this year) and selling your IPO allocation somewhere either side of the 6 quid level if you were clever, lucky or both. Have you checked the share price recently? No longer a ‘6’ in front of it. Not even a ‘5’…but a ‘4’. The low 480s to be precise at the time of writing.
Published 1021 days ago
In part 1 of these articles I talked about the need to avoid index funds and the importance of stock picking focusing on growth or ‘proper returns to shareholders’. Now, in part 2, I focus on the second of these two investment themes.
Published 1024 days ago
It is probably a good thing that England’s World Cup games are in a completely different time zone; otherwise already poor trading volumes are likely to become worse than negligible. With the FTSE100 putting a little bit more clear air between itself and the 6,800 point resistance level the easy conclusion for the stock market watcher is to catch a few of the intermittent sun rays and a lot of the ‘summer of sport’.
Published 1031 days ago
‘It is naught, it is naught, saith the buyer: but when he is gone his way, then he boasteth’ – unknown author on bargaining
Published 1041 days ago
Following the mammoth success of UK Investor Show 2014 we are moving into overdrive for the 2015 show on April 18 and one new feature will be a series of 14 one hour masterclasses with an audience limited to 80 – we are taking on an additional floor in Westminster.
Published 1045 days ago
It is all about rotation I am told. Telecity (TCY) shares remain above where I talked positively about them in early December and early March, but frustratingly they are only a few percentage points to the good. Even so, as I explain below, this is still a stock I am happy to hold.
Published 1053 days ago
I got two regulatory disclosure news alerts in my inbox this morning from BSkyB. The first was the regular share buyback announcement and the second concerned some of the rumours that appeared in the weekend press. As the statement by the company to the market today notes:
Published 1075 days ago
Direct from the Queen Elizabeth Conference Centre a video featuring a UK Investor Show 2014 presentation by Stephen Streater of Forbidden Technologies (FBT)
Published 1078 days ago
Direct from the main stage at the Queen Elizabeth Conference Centre, featuring Nigel Wray, Ed Croft, Chris Bailey, and Paul Kavanagh - the topic is value investing man vs machine