The June edition of the UK Investor Magazine is live - 5 share Tips, voting guide, and where to emigrate if the wrong party wins
Another crony capitalist awards dinner and the ShareProphets team AGAIN trounced by clowns like Lagos Securities
For the Record No 2: Nomad Cenkos again put on record about RNS lies by client Mercantile Ports & Logistics
Imagination Technologies – shares jump on commencement of formal sale process, though “remains in dispute with Apple”
Published 11 days ago
I last mused about industrial plant and tool hire company Ashtead (AHT) fourteen months ago, since when the shares have basically doubled. Happy days...but no resting on the laurels because correctly you should be asking the question of 'so what do we do right here and right now?' Fortunately, the company puckered up its full year results today so all the latest information is to hand.
Published 15 days ago
In part one of this two part bearcast I looked at the political ramifications of last night's disaster. Now in this podcast I look at the implications for the real economy, for sterling, for the housing market and for the stockmarket from FTSE 100 stocks down to AIM.
Published 161 days ago
I have an awful cold so cannot speak properly and the Mrs is giving me grounds for divorce (again) with awful TV choices as I suffer from my ailments. In the podcast I cover insider dealing (ref Logica), buying after a profits warning (ref Red Rock & SpaceandPeople) and why the bulls are wrong even though the FTSE 100 is at a record high (ref Malcolm Stacey)
Published 180 days ago
When it comes to picking a company which is going to perform well over the course of a year, I believe that you need to consider the macro-economic factors that are likely to affect the sector in which it operates.
Published 183 days ago
If you want to buy just one new single stock in the FTSE-100 for 2017 you need to look at the perceived Brexit losers given, over the course of the next 12 months, Brexit apocalypse will move further away via delays and position dilution. Forget big overseas earners as this backdrop will crimp their translated back into Sterling earnings so it has to be more domestic plays. And filtering for market leadership, strong balance sheet and continued growth hopes I end up with Whitbread (WTB) the owner of the Costa Coffee and Premier Inn franchises.
Published 236 days ago
These times are getting interesting and disjointed times. The FTSE 100 share index is now up 30% over five years, yet earnings have fallen by 80% over the same period and with U.S. unemployment at 5% and the core CPI rising 2.2% over the last year, it is difficult for the “data dependent” Fed to further rationalise emergency rates based on its official dual mandate. In addition we are living in an age when a CEO of two US public companies can give a talk about colonising Mars and shareholders don’t see it as a warning signal.
Published 262 days ago
I have been very pleased with the way that Glencore (GLEN) has performed since I covered it here a few months back, but I now feel that it is time to cash in, at least for the time being.
Published 387 days ago
The FTSE 100 closed down on two consecutive days, it would appear the bear trend has resumed. Oil is still trading near the highs, the S&P 500 is still trading near the highs, it seems the FTSE is going down alone. It could be something to do with the referendum or it could simply be that the UK index is leading the way as it has often done during the bear market. In this case I expect the S&P to follow the FTSE lower.
Published 396 days ago
After last Friday strong rally, the FTSE closed down yesterday. It seems the rally is running out of steam. Same thing in the S&P 500, I was expecting a rally near 2070, but the highest level yesterday was 2055 and the index closed down.
Published 404 days ago
A couple of weeks ago, the FTSE AIM All Share Basic Resources crossed again to the upside on the 200 day moving average. It did this a year ago as well but lost it back, and then some, with the ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ sentiment which was seriously amplified by the Chinese equity market sell off in the summer of last year. The FactSet chart below shows the story.
Published 412 days ago
The FT reported this week that Burberry is considering the appointment of a senior manager to assist CEO Christopher Bailey (who also acts as Chief Creative Officer), although the company itself declined to comment. In my view, the negative commentary which occasionally haunts Burberry’s share price can provide some attractive and relatively straightforward buying opportunities.
Published 440 days ago
FTSE 100 fat cats are in the news. They should be strung up with piano wire. I say this as a capitalist my father, a deluded lefty, nods in agreement in the background as I record. I should record that the old lefty was a managerial fat cat this morning as I dug his garden as an exploited worker. Referencing BP in particular I explain who is failing us and why it cannot go on like this.
Published 452 days ago
Last week I said that the FTSE 100 was leading the way down after peaking at 6,237. Very often after a long rally, we see the FTSE 100 underperform the S&P 500. Such a behaviour is associated with a market that is losing strength.
Published 485 days ago
Yesterday my sentiment indicator turned bearish. I know the FTSE 100 is in bullish mood this morning but this was expected. Don’t forget that the FTSE was up 10% in 11 days at the recent high. Such a move has stimulated the bulls, they think the bull market has resumed. Well they will be disappointed, the move up currently underway is a dead cat bounce.
Published 490 days ago
Mr Cameron went to Brussels asking for little and came back with less. He is lying if he says otherwise and should be viewed with contempt. The reporting of this episode by the biased BBC and especially the loathsome Kayta Adler was a disgrace and reason enough not to pay your license fee. 80% of FTSE 100 bosses and the CBI said they would back Cameron even before he got his "deal". In this podcast I explain why these suits do not speak for British business and why all folks on the left or right or those who believe in liberty, freedom & truth should tell Cameron where to stick it and vote for Brexit.
Published 514 days ago
The stock market sell off came amid concerns that the stock market slide itself together with the slowdown in China will cause more capital outflows. Faced with a falling stock market and growing pessimism about the economy, investors are moving money out of China and into countries with better returns.
Published 520 days ago
Sharesin Johnson Matthey (JMAT) have been hit hard by the fall in precious metal prices, plus the diesel car emissions scandal, but I think it offers a buying opportunity.
Published 526 days ago
The FTSE 100 is down 6% in the first two weeks of January, the trend has turned down after a decent bounce during the fourth quarter of 2015. The S&P 500 has turned down too and in China, it is simply a matter of time before China's stockmarket makes a new low.
Published 527 days ago
With the markets in turmoil it makes sense to have at least something more defensive in your portfolio. Gold has historically always been good in this type of situation, and whilst I’m nowhere near as bullish as some are about where the gold price is going longer term, it should at least offer some protection over the coming months.
Published 528 days ago
Hello Share Mashers. Reckitt Benckiser (RB.) is one of those Great British shares which sometimes misses the radar - but the cautious investor might be attracted. This company, which likes to call itself RB, is sometimes ignored by share critics. And yet it is doing rather well among its Footsie peers.
Published 531 days ago
In what are clearly troubled times for the stock market, it would appear to be sensible to veer away from the geopolitical cannon fodder that is commonly referred to as the FTSE 100, and go fo special situations further down the stock market like Clipper Ventures
Published 539 days ago
While it is the case that for the FTSE 100 and many blue chips 2015 was a year to forget, further down the stock market there were some bright spots for which period January to December 2015 was a triumph from the get go.
Published 545 days ago
Tomorrow I shall be in New York with my daughter and her uber-mad lefty godparents. Yesterday I spent the day with my wife's family including her barking mad (Greek) brother in law. He has numerous good qualities and is very likeable but a couple of major blind spots. I managed to control myself as he claimed that the evil Jews were behind 9/11 and controlled global banking. Then he moved onto capitalism. He has it wrong but so does the stockmarket from the FTSE 100 down to the AIM casino. In 2016 chickens will come home to roost for both.
Published 550 days ago
Hello Share Helpers. Not long to go now before Santa calls. But I’m not sure it will as sumptuous a Yule celebration as normal in Stacey Towers. It’s not really been a good year and that applies to most of us, I fear.
Published 562 days ago
Despite the recent sell off my BTI (sentiment indicator) is still rising (bullish divergence), an indication that the FTSE will rally. But the rally must start now otherwise there is a risk the BTI will turn down. Sentiment is affected by stock market declines, if the market falls and the decline lasts too long people turn bearish.
Published 572 days ago
Way back in March, I highlighted the opportunity for ShareProphets readers to become merger arbitrageurs and buy Rexam (REX) shares for a dull but worthy double digit return potential over the subsequent year. The thick end of three-quarters of the way through this period and Rexam shares are up 2-3% whilst the esteemed FTSE-100 is down 7-8%.
Published 654 days ago
Getafix is worried. His potions based on cuttings from the money tree do not seem to be working. Why are shares in Advanced Oncotherapy not at 50p despite being featured here twice a week? Why is the FTSE 100 not at 8,000 as predicted? Perhaps the Money Tree he has been using in the depths of the Welsh forest is a fake or has lost its powers. Fear not…for another old fool (sorry we meant respected druid) has emerged in North London
Published 655 days ago
One of London’s top brokers argues that the London Stock Exchange’s (LSE) lust for screwing the last nickel out of anyone it can is a disgrace and perhaps a sign that on a PE of 42 the shares are a sell. Despite an Oxford degree this fellow needs a grammar lesson so to spare his blushes I have semi-subbed accordingly? The broker writes:
Published 665 days ago
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at shares in Avanti Communications (AVN), Lonmin (LMI), Optimal Payments (OPAY) and set share price targets for all three.
Published 666 days ago
A lot of people are panicking about shares. You can’t blame them. It was just a few months ago that the FTSE 100 was trading at 7000. Now it is well below 6,000. Many AIM listed shares have done even worse. And so some people are just selling everything in a blind panic. That is YOUR opportunity.
Published 687 days ago
Hello Share Pickers. As far as my routine share trading goes at the mo, I am feeling all at sea. The Wide Sargasso Sea, actually.
Published 693 days ago
Rolls Royce (RR.) has had a real roller-coaster of a year so far, including profit warnings and disappointing financial results. The FTSE100 listed aerospace and defense company had just about recovered the losses to its share price from the profit warning that it issued last October, when it announced in mid-May that it was reducing its marine business and set-off on another downwards trajectory.
Published 700 days ago
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at Daniel Stewart (DAN), FTSE 100 (UKX), UK Oil & Gas (UKOG).
Published 741 days ago
In this podcast I discuss why I welcome a market correction which I regard as inevitable. I explain why I view it as inevitable - following on from themes in this Saturday show - but say why I welcome it. I look forward to the day because a) as a long term investor it will allow me to buy great stocks at bargain prices - and yes I am looking at FTSE 100 stocks - and b) because it will force a belated clean out of the Augean stable that is the UK stockmarket today. I look back to 2003 for some inspiration.
Published 758 days ago
With the FTSE 100 holding towards its best levels ever, it does appear to be relatively difficult for would-be bears to gain traction on all but the most obvious of negative setups, Plus500 notwithstanding, of course,.
Published 765 days ago
At the UK Investor Show I made a bearish statement; I won’t tip any share this year because in my view, the rally in 2015 is done. I expect a large correction sometime in the not too distant future. The FTSE 100 could go down by as much as 10%.
Published 800 days ago
The FTSE 100 made a new all-time high this week while the S&P 500 failed to make a new high. There is a divergence between the UK and the US index, if the S&P makes a new high as I believe there is a good chance the FTSE will rally too.
Published 806 days ago
Sentiment was boosted by news that Greece made a loan repayment to the International Monetary fund and continued M&A speculation. Greece’s future is still uncertain but what could be driving the market in the short term is M&A activity.
Published 826 days ago
Malcolm Stacey reckons today that I should apologise as the FTSE 100 breaks 7,000. I make no such apology. Some shares have gone up but a headline index can mislead and the reasons for the rally are not sustainable for reasons I explain here. Malcolm is wrong about how current PEs are justifiable and wrong not to be advising folks to bank gains. I look back to 2003 and to 1999 and look forward to 2016 and explain why Comrade Stacey is rash and unwise. A 1916 Wisden is a far better bet.
Published 827 days ago
The BTI (sentiment indicator) turned up on 16 March and is still rising. The FTSE 100 is strong relative to the S&P 500, the uptrend remains in place so it looks like the rally will extend.
Published 841 days ago
People are still listening to what he has to say. In a few months time they won't listen anymore, from positive mood investors will become more pessimistic. I can't say why or what will cause this change of mood, but I have observed this behaviour for many years. Nothing has changed since my last article, a major correction is expected between now and June.
Published 849 days ago
A few days ago the FTSE 100 crossed above the previous high of 6950.6 set in December 1999 at the height of the dotcom bubble. The euphoria was short lived, today the index is back below that level, there is strong resistance near 6950. It's been a real struggle for the UK index to register a new closing high, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high back in 2013, the FTSE 100 is lagging badly.
Published 855 days ago
The FTSE 100 broke out of a trading range (triangle) a few days ago but the UK index was unable to continue higher. This indicates weakness. The attention is on Greece and it's bailout program.
Published 856 days ago
It is always worth taking a look when there is a big fall in a well-owned FTSE-100 stock. Today’s performance dog is Centrica (CNA) which probably supplies many of you via its British Gas brand with gas and electricity and which has blamed a combination of energy price moves, the weather and utility market competition for a 30% fall in earnings per share in 2014…and most strikingly a 30% fall in the dividend it is going to pay.
Published 870 days ago
If you want to make money in large cap shares then you have to spot the big changes. Deals can be such transforming events…and updates from two big FTSE-100 heavyweights over the last day or so are noteworthy.
Published 876 days ago
Published 890 days ago
Sirius Minerals (SXX), the ambitious company seeking to exploit the world’s largest and highest-grade deposit of the high-nutrient agricultural fertiliser Polyhalite, has withdrawn one of its planning applications for the project, in the North York Moors National Park, for ‘re-tweaking’ and re-submission. But managing director Chris Fraser is still pushing ahead with off-take deals to help fund the £1 billion-plus York Potash project and the company, which hopes to be in production by 2018 if all now goes well, insists it could have the green light by May and then be on its way from a quote on AIM with a £182 million stockmarket value to membership of the FTSE 100 share index of the most heavily-capitalised companies in Britain.
Published 890 days ago
Sentiment is no longer bullish after a series of negative developments. Concerns are emerging about the possible impact of the decline in crude oil and the Swiss National Bank's decision to abandon the euro cap. My sentiment indicator is neutral but if the stock market trend has turned down as I believe this indicator will turn down to confirm the downtrend.
Published 898 days ago
It’s not been a pretty period for the oil price. On Monday (Monday 5 January) ICE Brent Crude Oil fell by a whopping 5.95% to just over 53 dollars a barrel. On Tuesday (Tuesday 6 January) it was down a further 1.05% to 52.50 dollars a barrel. The slide continued yesterday.
Published 907 days ago
I tipped this stock as a sell last year based on fundamental and technical factors. After an uneventful start to the year 2014, the stock rallied during the summer and peaked at 379p on 28 July.
Published 907 days ago
A year ago I tipped Randgold Resources (RRS) as my ‘FTSE-100 tip of the year’ and despite the volatility in the underlying gold price and desperate performance of the average gold miner the tip has done well and has nicely outperformed the UK’s leading share index.
Published 912 days ago
Tomorrow I start serving up my ten tips of the year. On reflection given my bearish take on the markets I am going to go with a 50/50 long/short split. Other writers will be serving up plenty of buy ideas but I cannot bring myself to do that given my macro-take on the world. I am sorry to be so gloomy this Christmas day but for what it is worth I wish you a Merry Christmas. Now to the macrobabble:
Published 916 days ago
Shares can be a real rollercoaster ride. ‘Mr Market’ can perform such gyrations for no logical reason, but this can still have a serious effect on our wealth. This week £62 billion was added to the value of the FTSE 100, as the index enjoyed its best week in three years.
Published 921 days ago
Stockmarkets are always full of surprises and many overpaid pundits have been caught the wrong way during December as those longed for quiet, lengthy ‘business development’ lunches and a half day off to watch the school nativity play has been augmented by a bit of proper volatility.
Published 922 days ago
Season’s greetings share selectors. HSBC (HSBA) is going to be one of the shares to buy for 2015. As you know, I already hold shares in “The World’s Local Bank” and intend to at least hold throughout 2015, and maybe even add to them.
Published 923 days ago
I wish no offence to those who believe in Santa (rallies) such as comrade Stacey not to those young whippersnappers such as Mark Howitt who see every sell off as a buying opportunity. But I have been warning for months that UK Equities were simply overvalued and that remains the case. Their advice to buy on the dips and not on the dips has been flawed. I am vindicated and I shall be more vindicated and so today I explain why shares (FTSE 100 down to AIM) are not for buying just yet.
Published 934 days ago
Published 939 days ago
Petrofac (PFC) has a bit of a reputation amongst its shareholders for shooting itself in the foot every time it looks to be doing well!
Published 939 days ago
Hmmmm. Lots of low grade Aim stocks are flying, the FTSE 100 is nearly at all-time highs, there is a lot of rubbish being spouted about a Santa Rally coming early and I am stuck in Greece preparing to start the olive harvest tomorrow when I should be punting rubbish on AIM making a killing. Right? Wrong.
Published 946 days ago
Today’s news that China cut interest rates has been well received by the stock market. The FTSE 100 rally continues, the UK index has now retraced 80% of its previous decline and has regained the levels above the 200-day moving average.
Published 952 days ago
In March this company was capitalised at almost £3 billion, Quenron (QPP) was – according to fraudster Rob Terry – heading for the FTSE 100. Today, at 68.5p, it is valued at less than £300 million and surely the end is nigh. So when do our readers think that Quenron shares will be suspended and/or hit 0p. The deadline for voting is midnight Sunday.
Published 953 days ago
if the FTSE 100 is about to decline, does that mean the traditional Santa Claus rally came early this year or will we have a repeat of last year movements?
Published 962 days ago
Christmas has come early at Marks & Spencer (MKS) – or almost: “Joy to the world” and “God rest ye merry gentlemen.” As a long term bull of the long awaited Marks & Spencer recovery these figures are an unsurprising pleasure and the shares have rallied to 439p. The market has for long taken progress on the food side as a given; a section of the business that can look after itself. And so it proved once again food sales up 3.6% in the first half and a quarter of one percentage improvement in gross margins on food sales.
Published 967 days ago
As regular readers of my financial research output will attest I am not a skilled technical analyst but the current level of the FTSE-100 index strikes me as interesting. The reason why is sourced in an article I published on this site a couple of months ago where I noted that back then the UK’s leading index was kicking around that 6,800 level. Now I know one correspondent found it to be ‘pointless’ but in the interim selling a few FTSE-100 futures short (as I did) was a sensible way to help protect the value of your portfolio over the last month or two.
Published 968 days ago
Dreadful news for followers of the Quenron (QPP) saga – the LSE asylum has banned the most deluded ramper of all time QPP1000 from posting on its boards. We have begged the LSE to reconsider and allow this most entertaining of total nutters back in the interests both of free speech but also for sheer entertainment value. We ask al ShareProphets readers to join us in our campaign to get QPP1000 unbanned. After all, who could forget such gems as:
Published 974 days ago
This week’s rally extended yesterday but today the UK index is down. There is a good chance the rally is over. Sentiment is still bearish after a five-day rally.
Published 977 days ago
It is good to see the FTSE 100 rise today, but not all companies are joining in on the fun. Shares in British American Tobacco (BATS) have fallen, so have shares in GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Banco Santander (BNC) shares are basically flat at 549p.
Published 980 days ago
After a nice recovery for the FTSE yesterday, I hope we’re all in a better mood. I am, although I still think it’s pretty surreal that every day I’m worth at least hundreds or more likely at least a thousand pounds less or more each day...
Published 980 days ago
Why is a company like a balloon? Because it can go bang. Well, yes, but there's another answer. It's easier to make a small firm grow in size than it is to inflate a giant company which has already been puffed up nearly to its limits.
Published 981 days ago
You could describe what has happened to the market as a massacre over the past two days. It’s even making ‘conventional’ news now, and new ‘experts’ are being found to pass comment on it. The truth is... most of these experts don’t have a clue really. Interestingly today the Telegraph is doing a review of highly paid fund managers who at the beginning of the year were predicting the FTSE would be at 8,000 by the year end...
Published 982 days ago
Ineffectual investors follow the herd. The crowd may be right some of the time, as they're all following the same obvious pointers to success. But if everybody is correct about a situation, and puts their mouth where everybody else's is, profits won't be worth hollering about.
Published 994 days ago
In certain circumstances share buybacks make sense. Where a company has surplus capital and cannot think of a way of earning an economic return on that capital it is absolutely right that it is returned to shareholders via buybacks. I prefer them to special dividends because one can elect to sell less or no stock or to stay on board with a bigger percentage of the equity. It is down to the individual investor. And it is right that surplus capital should be returned to the company’s owners (shareholders) not simply be hoarded by management.
Published 1004 days ago
I have said many times that the bull market of 2009-2014 is not the first leg of an even greater bull market that could last many, many years as many believe. The reason the stock market appears to be a one way bet is that stock prices have been inflated by the central banks. The question is: can we trust central banks?
Published 1010 days ago
Since I had a strategy for investing, I have adopted the ‘High Yield’ approach to buying shares. In a nutshell, this strategy states that you should buy shares with a yield higher than average for the FTSE 100, if possible with a low PE ratio, the dividend well covered and debt as low as possible. Does it work?
Published 1017 days ago
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) shares are trading at 2530p on a PE of 15.53 and offering a yield of 4.43%. So should you buy, sell or hold shares in the largest company in the FTSE 100?
Published 1021 days ago
This week's Financial Orbit starts with the FT celebrating the FTSE 100 hitting a 14 year high despite the Ukraine, ISIS, etc, etc. However back in the real world...
Published 1047 days ago
At the weekend we asked readers which of the eight stocks where marmite figure David Lenigas runs the show is likely to gain most this week. The start price was the Friday closing mid-price. We also gave a ninth option – that the FTSE 100 would outperform the lot. And so our readers said:
Published 1050 days ago
David Lenigas is a Marmite figure and larger than life character on AIM. He is involved in a stack of companies so which will do best next week for its investors …and we include an option for the bears as well. Voting closes midnight on Sunday.
Published 1057 days ago
Malcolm Stacey is a great man and one of the nicest guys in shares. But his bullishness about equity markets is wrong. And here is your 10 point checklist as to why it is right to be bearish.
Published 1074 days ago
The new UK & Europe Step Down Autocall (SG15) is a 6 year investment which is linked to the performance of the FTSE 100 and EuroStoxx 50 Indices.
Published 1118 days ago
Early last month, I pointed out that Rentokil Initial (RTO), the £2 billion plus market cap services support company, was not far from what looked like a potential one year trend support line. At 118p, according to my inspection of the share price chart, the share seems to have reached that support level. So will it bounce off it?
Published 1122 days ago
Hello Share Fiends: The markets are in a stuck-in-the mud phase, as nobody really knows which direction shares should take. Consequently, the Footsie has been trading in narrow bands on most days. Daily gains have been coming quite steadily, but mostly under 30 points and often a lot lower.
Published 1136 days ago
Hello Share Freaks. I brought Arm Holdings (ARM) to your attention recently. I opined that while the price to earnings ratio is horrendous, the company's future prospects seem amazingly good.
Published 1479 days ago
I offer no comment on this weekly feature it is a simple matter of observation. The two tables below show the most active discussions on the ADVFN and iii Bulletin Boards as of a Thursday morning.
Published 1529 days ago
I do not want to go into technicalities too much, but this week the equity markets are threatening to deliver the same treatment for stocks as we have seen for Gold.
Published 1534 days ago
There are not too many times when darting and hovering investor is able to by Rio Tinto (RIO) at an historic dividend yield that close to that of the FTSE 100 Index. I note that that the dividend yield on the FTSE 100 index last seen was 3.55% and the historic dividend yield on RTZ was an attractive looking 3.5%. At a share price of 3,176p its ordinary shares are back to levels last seen three years ago and well below the price of above 4,500p it reached in 2011. Clearly a closer look is suggested.