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Placing my bets with Betfair on the General Election

Published 17 days ago

Paying some attention to the man who – unlike me – called Trump and Brexit correctly - and as a chance to redeem my disastrous Brexit wager, I have proceeded with caution when it comes to betting on the General Election.

FED Policy Turns Bullish For Gold

Published 25 days ago

Gold guru Mike Swanson was expecting a market pullback last year, however the Trump election caused him to go long on the market. Initially these administration changes could have driven the markets and stimulated the economy. He doesn’t think that Trump will get much done on these fronts and most of his promises are probably not going to materialize.

The explicit signs that a stockmarket crash is on its way... soon

Published 26 days ago

All investors wish that they had a crystal ball to predict when a recession is coming in the US. But there’s one thing, says David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff that has predicted imminent recessions...

Trumphoria Fades

Published 54 days ago

The United States has a President that made his fortune on the back of debt, but somehow the market thinks Trump will govern in a tea-party-hard-money fashion. Nothing could be further from the truth. All investors would be wise to forget anything (and everything) Trump has said, and instead just ask themselves what his most likely course of action will be once he gets to that inevitable fork in the road.

Now is the time to buy gold stocks and don't rule out a Le Pen victory

Published 56 days ago

I'm not so sure about his call on the French Election but gold commentator Louis James makes a persuasive case for exposure to the yellow metal in this week's podcast from Palisade Capital. He argues that we have turned the corner and it’s onwards and upwards from here. When gold takes out $1400 a lot of the bears will quiet down. Now is the time to get in near the ground floor, while we still in the initial stages of a major bull run that will put 2011 to shame.

Could Digital Barriers be on the verge of turning things around?

Published 90 days ago

Digital Barriers (DGB) has been like so many other AIM companies, in that it has promised a lot but has failed to deliver in the way that investors expected it to, and it now looks like the last chance for the company to live up to expectations.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Wringing the Vicar's Neck, he is a mad Guardian reader

Published 95 days ago

Dad and I got back from the hospital and were sitting down to lunch. water for me, wine for him. After a morning with a range of Shipmans he deserved it. Who should bound in but the vicar from our old village of Byfield. I told him that I had recently written an article about wringing his neck HERE. He then gushed out a stream of left wing views on Trump, Brexit and other matters that were so barking mad that even my Guardian reading father was a bit taken aback. A bitter attack on Uncle Chris Booker was the final straw. No wonder the CofE is going to the dogs.  On the podcast that followed I cover Orogen (ORE) where we are in and backing Adam Reynolds again, Nyota (NYO), Audioboom (BOOM), Andalas Energy (ADL) and Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO).

Beware the 15th March, as Trump makes America wait again & the Euro prepares to fall apart

Published 111 days ago

The US President is expected to speak to the Greek prime minister in the coming days. The substance of the call, according to well-placed sources, will be Greece’s ongoing negotiations with creditors and the role the International Monetary Fund may or may not play in the country’s current rescue programme.  Donald Trump has publicly tweeted that he thinks the Greeks are “wasting their time” staying in the Eurozone. 

Greece is likely to leave the Euro before the year is out, helped on its way by Trump

Published 124 days ago

In the past, the Americans have vigorously supported a compromise over Greece because, along with the rest of the political establishment, it views preserving the euro and the European Union as a strategic imperative of over-riding importance. But Trump doesn’t like the EU. Trump has made it very clear that he is very hostile to the EU. He backed Brexit, appointed an ambassador who believes the euro is destined to fall apart, and started a rhetorical trade war with Germany. In response, EU leaders, from Germany’s Angela Merkel to France’s François Hollande, have been fiercely critical of Trump. Relations between Washington and Brussels have probably never been worse. 

Political and Market Uncertainty Is Driving The Rush For Gold

Published 128 days ago

In this week's Palisadce Capital potcast Peter Spina explains the recent market action and how gold stocks have historically lead the spot price. There is considerable support near $1100, and long term resistance at $1275. This level may well translate into resistance to the upside, once through it though, expect $1475 to $1500. He is seeing growing Wall Street and Chinese speculation in the market, there seems to be a general rush for gold.

For the ill prepared, a tsunami of financial misfortune lies ahead

Published 132 days ago

An unexpectedly bearish BlackRock CEO Larry Fink in the week joined the likes of Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach and Ray Dalio who have all similarly turned downbeat in recent weeks. All have cautioned that the U.S. economy is in the midst of a slowdown and financial markets could see a significant setback, for the same reason, that the Trumpflation trade has burnt out in recent months due to uncertainty over global trade and the Trump administration's plan to cut taxes. "I see a lot of dark shadows," Fink said adding that. "The markets are probably ahead of themselves." 

The bull case for gold from the team at Sprott

Published 137 days ago

The world's best known investors in precious metals, Sprott Asset Management has published a detailed 22 page report explaining why gold will head higher and will do so fast after the Q4 post Trump correction. Analyst Trey Reik notes that:

A revealing dinner last week with Yanis Varoufakis –the former Greek minister of finance

Published 139 days ago

John my colleague had dinner in the week with the old Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. We will issue a more detailed note on the conversation in the week.  At AG we are now even surer that before that the Euro WILL implode, only the timing is debatable –but the next six months though is looking very problematic as Trump enters the fray.

So Long Ashtead. Your Last Share Hike Led Me to Take Hefty Profits

Published 159 days ago

Hello Share Movers. After a long and happy relationship, I’ve dumped all this family’s shares in the tool and plant hire company Ashtead (AHT). There are fair reasons, I feel. Though they are nothing to do with the company itself.

Do You Hold Shares with an American Connection? Watch Out for a Possible Donald Effect.

Published 179 days ago

Hello Share Tremblers.  As I hold many shares in British companies which do a lot of business in the USA, perhaps I should be getting cautious. Maybe I should beware the Trump effect in the New Year.

After 2017, is there going to be a Europe to actually to leave?

Published 188 days ago

The EU and the euro project have been an economic disaster for all participants, including Germany, which will eventually be forced to write off the hard-earned savings she has lent to other Eurozone members. We know, with absolute certainty that the euro will self-destruct and the Eurozone will disintegrate, only the timing is debatable. We know this for one reason above all, the political class and the ECB are guided by economic beliefs mascarading as theory which will guarantee this outcome. Furthermore, they insist on using bogus statistics that are used to reinforce inappropriate and illegal policies.

Precious Metals Market Commentary - why has gold tanked since Trump?

Published 192 days ago

Contrary to the pre-election consensus, Trump's victory has been negative for gold, at least in the short term. Since his election on November the 8th, price has declined from a peak of $1,336 to where it’s currently trading at $1,170 – a drop of $166 or 12.5%. So what next? Over to the experts at Sprott:. 

October UK Investor Show Magazine - Shares to beat ASOS, When the Bubbles Pop, Scotland can't afford to leave

Published 199 days ago

The October edition of the UK Investor Show magazine is live features 7 buy tips, including 5 our writers believe will  beat ASOS. Plus a feature on why the Bubbles are About to Pop, in Trump vs Clinton - who is the biggest loser from this contest, and why Scotland can't afford to leave the UK.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: 550kg of olives harvested in one day, I'm cream crackered

Published 203 days ago

I am utterly wiped out after day one of what looks like being a cracking harvest. A full photo report is HERE. In the podcast I discuss votes tomorrow in Austria and Italy and what they mean and why we bears are feeling good about the lack of a Santa Rally. Trump was Santa this year and that rally is over. I explain why I disagree with Malcolm Stacey's article today. I then look at a number of AIM stocks set to slide and why, as I refer to Steve's piece earlier. In focus: Avanti Communications (AVN), Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO), Telit (TCM), Boohoo (BOO), Tungsten (TUNG), Fastjet (FJET), Cloudtag (CTAG), African Potash (AFPO) and I have a few words about Worthington (WRN)

Why Galloping Ashtead is More than Another Brick in the Wall

Published 206 days ago

Hello Share Pickers. Perhaps my favourite Footsie share is Ashtead (AHT). It was only recently that I brought it to your attention again. But I've thought of a few more encouraging vibes that you might like to hear about.

Take care not to get trampled in the rush, when money turns physical again.

Published 209 days ago

The surprise paper currency money-grab by the Indian authorities has intensified the Indians public’s perception of a corrupt, overly-bureaucratic, and ineffective government and the suspicion that government paper money is ultimately worthless (which of course it is) will have gained immeasurable credence. An accelerating decline in the purchasing power of the rupee is the most likely economic consequence for Mr Modi, ultimately destabilising for both the country and his government. Globally, not just in India, Our entire monetary system depends on trust. 

Peter Schiff - the bond carnage post Trump - next stop real estate

Published 209 days ago

Shares may be zooming in the Trump rally but libertarian gold bug ( and all round super hero) Peter Schiff does not think it will last or is sustainable. But the first casualty of the bonds sell off will be commercial real estate warns Schiff in his latest podcast.

Even Trump’s Best Policies Can’t Stop the stockmarket Crash

Published 213 days ago

Some investors are getting carried away with ‘Trump trades’. Now that he is elected we see the psychological optimism linked to cutting taxes, deregulation, and infrastructure spending being reflected in the stock market. David Skarica thinks the stock market is overvalued, and this upward trend won’t last long. He is preparing for a crash between the summer and fall- which is the common historical trend, as is a crash under a Republican majority.

Whacky ideas: update as promised

Published 217 days ago

I previously pondered (HERE) what to do with markets seemingly (in my view) overvalued and due a correction. Taking cash off the table is the easy part (once one is resolved to sell up, that is) but where to put it was a bit of a question. Government bonds and cash offered little to nothing and in the wake of the Sterling flash crash it seemed that even cash wasn’t all that safe!

The new era of status quo rejection is just getting underway, itExit anyone?

Published 223 days ago

In the US the Left has a lot of soul searching to do, as does the Right. Trump wasn’t the Republican’s preferred choice and they fought him tooth and nail all the way. In terms of the traditional Left vs Right rivalry, both sides lost this election.

Take advantage of the crash in precious metals prices

Published 223 days ago

It was a real rollercoaster ride for precious metals and shares last week, following the results of the US elections and a surprise win for Donald Trump, but this could present some great buying opportunities.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Draining the swamp of AIM

Published 224 days ago

Over on my personal website today's podcast (HERE) looks at  how the liberal establishment still don't get it post Trump. In bearcast I look back at a fraud from seven years ago which is back in the news and discuss why we fail to drain the swamp of AIM or indeed the wider City of London 

Why Shares May Lead the Way in a Topsy Turvy World

Published 225 days ago

So far, the election of Big Donald has done the opposite of what many of us feared and the Dow has soared to new heights. If Trump does what he promised, or is it threatened, in his pre-vote speeches we can probably expect the Dow - and consequently the Footsie - to fall away again. Possibly heavily.

Donald and Mexico. Will It Strike a Sour Note with Sugary Giant Tate and Lyle?

Published 226 days ago

Hello Share Crashers. It seems to me that there is a headwind against the over-consumption of sugar. The Government warns against eating too much and so do all sorts of health writers. And when what you sell is under scrutiny, then you have to be concerned about future profits.

Do gold & silver care that Donald Trump won?

Published 227 days ago

Short answer: No. Well that is the response of Dave Kranzler who manages gold and precious metals fund in Denver. Short term maybe the answer was in fact yes. But taking a broader perspective I reckon Kranzier is correct. He writes over on the Sprott website:

Peter Schiff: Q3 GDP data rigged to help Hillary Clinton and emails explained for dummies & cars tell you its 2008 all over

Published 235 days ago

Libertarian gold guru Peter Schiff is a big hero of mine. In his latest podcast he discusses why he thinks US Q3 GDP data was rigged and why Us consumers really are feeling bad. He also explains for anyone too thick to understand why the Hillary Clinton email issue really should send her to prison and why he thinks Trump deserves to win and now may well win. And what this all means for the markets. Peter called the 2008 crash now listen to what he says on US car leasing and what that tells you. It tells you that there is a meltdown coming folks...

How the US Election is Stifling Our Share Prices.

Published 239 days ago

Hello Share Twiddlers. You may have noticed the Dow Jones indicator has been very sluggish lately. It just cannot break through its recent all-time highs above 18,500. As usual, lots of high sounding reasons are trotted out, all based on domestic economics and global forces. But these might be the-so-called experts showing off.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Fraudsters, losers & tossers the lot of them

Published 270 days ago

In this bearcast I refer to my article on the Trump & Clinton debate overnight and what it means HERE and the latest shocking expose of Quindell fraudster Rob Terry HERE.  I warn about bad things happening in Euro land and the worst of tem all is Deutsche Bank. There is a Radio 4 programme tonight on AIM fraud at 8 PM. I am not involved but some fine upstanding members of the community are. that is irony in case the loser Roger Lawson thinks I have forgiven him and ShareSoc for defending the blinkx law breakers by smearing me and Ben Edelman.Elsewhere I look at the role of certain NEDS who are Tim not so nice but fucking dim. I cover the Cloudtag (CTAG) scam, Northern Petroleum (NOP) - placing ahoy _ and Imaginatik (IMTK) as well as China fraud Jiasen (JSI)

Trump set to win on November the 8th

Published 272 days ago

Zero Rate Interest Policy is the desperate response of economists in the US Federal Reserve, and central banks / elite Universities around the globe which have hopelessly failed. But rather than acknowledge their collective failure, like all past Emperors of failed Empires toward the end, they have doubled up on failed policies. Negative interest rate policy demands that banks and depositors must pay for the privilege of holding cash.  Instead of fixing what's broken, ZIRP and NIRP have pushed a broken system further along the path of self-destruction. A few "professional" economists do understand this, largely the same ones who foretold of 2007/8, but they are being ignored now as then.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Truthful Trump but Democrats lying on terror, The maths on Watchstone now & Alba spouting shite

Published 279 days ago

ISIS seems to have struck again in the USA, in Minnesota but also in New York and across the river in New Jersey. Pathetic weasel words from Democrats will only anger folks on Main Street even more, Trump calls it right again. I cover the amazing weekend poll numbers on Trump the mainstream British media won't report today HERE and HERE. He is going to win. Elsewhere I explain how to value Watchstone (WTG) post today's shock news on the Quindell fraud from S&G (HERE). I look at Mitie (MTO), WH Ireland (WHI), Servision (SEV) and a statement from Alba (ALBA) which is pure 100% cock. 

The smartest easy money political bet - Lay Crooked Hillary Clinton. I bet Bill won't

Published 286 days ago

Okay it will probably be the first time that Crooked Hillary got laid in years but I suggest you open a bet against her being the next President at Betfair right now. The price is now 1.59 meaning that to win £1,000 you risk £590. Let me explain.

The Share Price Keeps Building - But this Beauty Is Tooled Up for Even Bigger Profits.

Published 332 days ago

Hello Share Screechers. It’s possibly time we looked at a share in the fabulous ‘slow, steady riser’ category. In some ways Ashtead Group (AHT) is a rather odd company to put our trust in.

Notes from Underground: Yes we Khan

Published 399 days ago

Last week I promised you a love letter to new London mayor Sadiq Khan. Actually, I don't have much to say about him other than if he drives Tom so mad, he must have some redeeming qualities. TW Note, I said I was glad Khan won, check your facts beardie,

Video: Peter Schiff, Trump & Sanders are right, the US economy is broken

Published 433 days ago

This is classic Peter Schiff with the great man explaining to Alex Jones why he thinks that the US economy is already shrinking and getting worse. In essence Trump is right - the economy is broken. He describes negative interest rates as an admission of failure and warns of an impending dollar slump.

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