UK 05:50 Sunday, 25 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
In this podcast I look at the issue of earnings visibility with special reference to quoted spreadbetting firms, at Quindell and its change of PR and what that telegraphs to you and then there is a detailed report back on Sefton Resources and its latest omnishambles announcement.
Already a member? Sign in
• All premium articles
• Tom Winnifrith’s Bearcast
• Access to all the entire nearly 13 year archive
• ShareProphets Daily Newsletter
Cancel any time
This area of the ShareProphets.com site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of ShareProphets.com. ShareProphets.com does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at ShareProphets.com is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by ShareProphets.com and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions.
Comments
Diabel
Do you remember telling us a few months ago that throughout the country partners would be disclosing to their significant others they’ve lost the family treasure? Do you remember telling us if you can buy a packet of crisps after dealings costs we should sell? That you expected shares to be suspended any day? That RT sold at £0.70 since he knew it was all over? Everyday the company’s running out of money! How different now. Institutions coming in, new management. Touched nearly £1.20. A sheriff of doom. But seemingly not a share prophet.
Phil
Diabel,
check these two out, issued a year before the GCR bearnote
http://www.shareprophets.com/views/18/quindell-portfolio-is-an-accident-waiting-to-happen
http://www.shareprophets.com/views/35/quindell-portfolio-contract-win-or-not
Seems to me TW & LM were more right when they were right, than more wrong when they were wrong.
Don’t recall anyone trying to nail the date or SP, anyway, it was pretty much best guess.
I read that board that you guys are relying on the PWC report. I think it’s irrelevant, a line drawn regardless. The issue is the placement, get it away then a year to sefton it out, then bust. If they don’t get it away then bust very shortly.
I also think you posters are pretty naive about the short market, there are many way to play an option, and although taking a med/high position with narrow stops is one of them, there are others
alcira16247
Phil
Many thanks for the links to Tom’s and Lucien’s QPP articles. I hadn’t read them before.
Remarkable that both esteemed gentlemen were voicing their concerns at a time that Quindell was one of the darlings of the market.
ShareProphets have called this one right from the beginning and I see no evidence that they have gotten things wrong now!
Forty Two
The Quindell new Board shenanigans, whether historic track record, greedy options awards or dismissal from august standards boards makes an interesting story of its own right. I am, however, getting bored of waiting for the PWC report so I thought I would just marshal the available facts as to the prices paid for the companies that make up Quindell. I make no comment on the value of these businesses but leave that to PWC – whose juniors will not doubt put together a DCF, based on the now discredited CAPM and using such GIGO inputs as “risk premium”, “risk free rate (hey we are in ZIRP)” and “target capital structure”. I shall let the chefs (or many cooks) decide the value of these businesses. There may be rounding errors in this largely publicly available data but I’m quite confident the carrying values, carrying values ex-intangibles and consideration are at least 95% right, if not more (it was just a copy and paste exercise, with only my fat fingers, rather than Quindell to blame for any errors).
And the data says Quindell has paid just over £0.5bn for its acquisitions of which a short £90m was cash and the rest shares. The net carrying value of the assets sums to £66m. Strip out acquired intangibles/goodwill and that number is £17m. Quindell made fair value adjustments that valued the acquired assets at about £100m. According to online sources the mkt cap is £400m – though I suspect that doesn’t take into account deferred shares, which I can’t be bothered to calculate right now. So I’ll let you decide how realistic that cap is (no real need to adjust for “net funds”) – obviously there has been a lot of secret sauce added to these acquisitions and a very successful industrial deafness business added the bulk of the £308 accrued revenues and a good proportion of the £93m legal disbursements reported. Now if these boats came in and the consideration actually paid (well mostly in QPP shares of course) was correct there would be a lot of upside in the stock. If on the other hand the fair value ex-intangibles was more accurate then you are looking gat £17m. Yikes!
Spreadsheet comes out messed up on here – but available on request.
Coda: I’m happy with data from inception till end 2013 but less so with H1 as even treating the warrants for RAC as all goodwill I am £40m short of the combined goodwill and intangibles reported at end June 2014. Some other stuff relating to CCS that was capitalised? Answers on a postcard. Also I used the last reported abbreviated accounts for Ingenie fair values. As it was post the interims there is no data in the Quindell accounts. Also please feel free to correct any other glaring errors and form your own opinion.
Mac
Diabel
Is your head up your arse? QPP remains a walking dead company. The only person truly in the know was RT and he bailed most (all?) his stock at 30-40p. The fact that the sp is north of a £1 is irrelevant and anyone who thinks this is anything other than a stay of execution is a fool.
TW, Gotham and all the bears were indeed prophets unless of course you want to split hairs on the remaining 5% of value that still clings to life in this shitbucket of a company.