UK 14:08 Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Long, long chats yesterday with a Liverpool lawyer and a helpful reader email allow me, I think, to explain why the underlying cashflow miss at Quindell in H2 2014 was in fact UP TO £85 million ( not the £45-60 million I had demonstrated). And I think the key to the miss is accruals and when Quenron started its Industrial Deafness push and how it accrues for it. This is a bit geeky but I believe explains the mystery in full. It has clear implications for the Rob Terry insider dealing case, demonstrates clear market abuse and also if one reads through to 2015 shows why Quindell is insolvent. I also try to explain why I have never had the surname Cochrane (sorry Quindell Quislings). And I cover the importance of the Tosca news.
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Comments
zeronegative
Wonder what the Quindell Echo headline will be…
“TOSCA selling is great news for Quindell”
“Quindell business model is fantastic as TOSCA takes well deserved profits.”
“TOSCA haven’t sold any shares – Its just a BIG FAT LIE from TW”
Forty Two
The Ingenie “missing link” makes good sense – great work – add that to the S&G bung, deferred salaries, stretched payables, jobbed on medical reports, share sales and OAB and you are right – the non-collection of NIHL matches the black hole. So not only do you have the accounts as nonsense but also the term operating “cashflow” has been seriously abused (before exceptional items but including “initiatives”). That word “initiatives” is the only defence against market abuse IMHO and a flimsy one at that. Market abuse aside what you are saying is that PWC will declare it insolvent as well as obliterate the accruals and goodwill, that the precedent of non-payment will mean crazy 2015 cash flow forecasts can’t be supported, meaning it is not a going concern. Cripes. On the other hand mini me “believe[s] that we have a strong business, with great people and we look forward to the future with optimism”. So that’s all right then.
Forty Two
@zero maybe “Pinnacle of 19th century Italian culture forced to liquidate position by pepperami-packing pizza purveyor”. Gotta give it to Tosca – nice trade!
turbograndad
I bailed on this POS at 207p new share price fiddle
When I bought in my inner suspicion was what is this relationship between Larry Morse FD, and CEO Rob Terry, it was very much a duet, and the rest of the board was made up of token NED’s.
It seemed as if Larry was the accompaniment, and Rob the puppet master general Svengali, not that it excuses Larry FD, this was my GUT instinct.!!!!!
I ignored my GUT, bad decision, I talked myself out of this gut suspicion, in favour of that we have regulation, protocol, this a British Company with a good idea, going places fast, and that I was just a battered suspicious old sower puss, wrong again, bad decision.
In investing listen to the gut, those reasons may be subjective, but may serve you well.
I pose this human take as opposed to all the financial gobbledygook that TOM, is more than capable of, as we investors are a broad church, and financial minutiae, is not all our forte, though perhaps it should be.
dasv
CockneyRebel sums it up nicely:-
“If in doubt, get out”
Pauly Walnuts
I’ve long since thought that Ingenie USA and Ingenie Canada were mirages in the QPP desert (and you can add Ingenie Brackets UK to those 2 as well). I recall Tom has popped up Ingenie’s (incorrectly) abbreviated 2013 accounts at some point in the past, which didn’t seem to tie in to the QPP 2013 96 page tome (page 90). I make the £15.6m as being all Ingenie Ltd, so Rob knows where the other 3 Ingenie’s are at. I have an image in my head of FD Larry sat at his desk in Fareham in full Harry Potter outfit, magic-ing all these up as he goes along. If I was a cruel bastard I’d go for christening him as Larry Potter. Good job I’m not tho eh.
zeronegative
Interesting trade gone through…..looks like a sell
14:37:33 63.25 21,385,903 O 65.00 66.00
TOSCA???
alcira16247
Tom
Hell of a piece of work and what a scoop!
Appears TOSCA have heeded your warnings and bailed out!
Google 14:37:33 63.25 21,385,903
alcira16247
Tom
As a matter of interest when the fund managers jobs of M&G Recovery and Toscafund Asset Management LLP are offered to you…… which one will you be taking?
invetigate
I think you will Toscafund have done very well since their average entry price is likely to be below 50p. remember they are a hedge fund… take bets not investors.
the morons thought Tosafund was their white knight!!
Paul Scott
Hi Tom,
To be honest, I didn’t really follow any of the detail in this webcast, but I know you do your research well, so you’re probably right!
Also, I think I am starting to detect the occasional hint of a West-country accent. You said “cash burrrrrn” in a very Bristol accent somewhere around 17-19 minutes!!!
As regards Quindell, in my view the shares have dropped by about 90% from the peak, the disgraced founder conman has gone, so in a way I can’t see much point in remaining short. So personally I’m largely out of my short now, and just have a tiny remaining position, for old times’ sake.
Just to throw a spanner in the work though, I note that in the Slater & Gordon results webcast earlier this week, they did say that Quindell’s problems were NOT fundamental to their legal practices – i.e. this is actually supportive to the bull case on Quindell. Maybe there is some significant value in QLS, if it can be turned around?
Overall, I’d say that I’m fairly neutral on it right now, or mildly bearish. S&G haven’t got the financial clout to launch a really big bid for QLS, and their track record suggests they pay about 3-4 times EBITDA. Who knows what QLS’s sustainable EBITDA actually is? I suspect a deal of maybe £100-200m with S&G is do-able, but it could easily fall apart.
The bull case is that the new Non-Execs might be able to line up some interim financing, to enable them to avoid having to sell QLS at all.
Who knows? I don’t think it’s a slam-dunk short any more. It might survive, who knows?
Well done for exposing all the dirt on this company. People should remember that it was you alone who flagged up the Equities First scandal. Without your work, investors would be none the wiser about the true nature of those dodgy deals, and the way they were misrepresented by several companies.
Regards, Paul.