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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Gulf Keystone Special

By Tom Winnifrith | Saturday 11 April 2015


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


Apologies for overlooking the truly dreadful smoke and mirrors 2014 results from Gulf Keystone (GKP) last week. In this podcast I look back and flag up a few points the bulls might have overlooked while out on day release from the asylum.

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More on GKP


Comments

1 comments


  1. Paul Curtis

    Raise three points:

    1. Say cash position perhaps only 12 months. IMO nearer 6 months.

    2. GKP claim of 40K bopd daily production disingenuous since targeting average 36K bopd for the year.

    GKP clearly explain that the difference is anticipated plant availability. 40K bopd is the targeted daily rate but there will be downtime for maintenance.

    3. GKP’s problems are all their own making, that KRG blameless and therefore don’t care if GKP go bust!

    Tom has completely missed the elephant in the room. GKP are in dire straits because KRG haven’t been paying them!!! And if KRG ‘don’t care’ if GKP go bust, why did they make an advance payment of $26m for ‘forward sales’ a month ago, after GKP had ceased all production? KRG desperately want GKP’s 36/40K bopd.

    The investment case hinges on whether Iraq will now honour its side of the oil sales agreement. When GKP say this is a pivotal year, this is what they mean. Future CAPEX commitments hinge on KRG making regular payments to the oil companies, incl back costs.

    Partial payments now flowing from Iraq to Kurdistan. Still early days but Genel, DNO and Gulf state they are confident that this will filter through to them.


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