Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 29 July - LGO Energy, letting rip again

Comments

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   Mark

   29 July 2015, 07:05

   Great Bearcast Tom, life without Aim? Hmmm wouldn’t be worth living ;-)

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   wildrides

   29 July 2015, 11:16

   Blimey ………… your turning into an impersonation of interventionist owner Rupert “the bear” Murdoch with your editorial meddling while on sabbatical . Please give Sherlock Turney a break Tom and give him full support instead of sideline sniping . You of all people know how difficult the Editorial position in a publication can be ! You need to switch off , unwind , stroke Oakley alot and spend time with your family and book writing . Please forget about the markets altogether . They will still be here when you get back ! Launch full head long into the sabbatical like you mean it and come back whenever intended fully refreshed ……………..you know it makes sense.

   As for Scraping Aim and moving everything to the unregulated bottom end of the LSE …………. what the hell is that going to change I really cant imagine . Reform of AIM is what is needed . Lets not throw the baby out with the bath water . All Aim needs is the current regulators to actually regulate and more appropriate due dilli on entry for companies wishing to join . It aint rocket science .

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   DUCK AND DIVE

   29 July 2015, 11:42

   As for the Cornhill grope suspect, I can’t see why you think this reflects on the man’s employer. You may think you’re sticking a pin into Cornhill but you’re not – even if the employee is eventually found guilty. So whoever took the story down last night was acting responsibly in my view; and whoever put it back up was being silly, petulant, childish, whatever.

   I’m not invested in LGO but I think you have missed some key facts from your rant. I was able to establish the following in 5 minutes of RNS reading:

   1. LGO’s production cost is $10 per barrel so even at 950bopd and $50 per barrel, they are earning at the rate of $14m per annum.

   2. The 950bopd figure doesn’t include any production from Pad 4 which is about to come on stream (with one of the wells allegedly delivering 500bopd naturally).

   3. LGO haven’t yet drawn down the second $13m tranche of the BNP Paribas loan.

   4. LGO are due to start paying back the first ($12m) tranche in September — to which end they forward sold 250,000 barrels of oil back in February when oil was above $60pb and close to its 2015 high.

   If they have no other debts, they should be generating cash any day now, having paid off the first tranche of the loan. In fact, I might have talked myself into buying some shares at 1.5p.

   Now what’s been wrong with your server? Are you being targeted by the Manc robber with a DoS attack?

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   J P Spaghetti

   29 July 2015, 13:28

   Tom – I think you mean the fancy Belgian chocolate (worth remembering if ever you’re in the bad books of the lady in your life!)

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   cooperman

   29 July 2015, 13:53

   The church is an employer and they did a great job hiding such activities and the Houses of Parliament a similar job. Exposing this kind of activity is a step in the right direction in preventing it .

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   Mark

   29 July 2015, 13:58

   Duck n Dive. That 950bopd is group production. Not a cat in hell is Spain running at $10 a barrel, more likely at a loss, 100+bopd at last notice, 250k barrels on debt deal will dig in further, and that’s just on the trini oil, I’m thinking 800-850bopd trini max probably less, how can it possibly be making money when it has to pay for drilling to maintain production never mind increase it. I think it’s fair to say current production is even worse as the Rinser came out on today’s media saying they can’t get the figures to the market yet (slang for it’s shit in the Ritson hood winking world) good luck if you decide to buy in,but it’s doing an RRL in trini, it’s geologically flawed and needs waterflood which RRL unfortunately took too long to realise, although they are on to it now, Lgo are just doing the usual aim shite of misleading the market until the next guaranteed placing to try and reverse the declining trend, I can see the drawdown being withdrawn soon on some technicality like today’s news and the still underwhelming oil price. I do hate Ritson I must admit, the fucker has conned to many people for to long, both here and Solo, today’s news was forced upon him by the market, and still he hides his figures in his usual witchcraft way.

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   Barford

   29 July 2015, 15:04

   Good piece Tom… On the matter of Mr Lenigas and Lgo may I draw your attention to his other interest ie Horse Hill Devlopements Ltd and the winding up petition!
   If you check The Gazzette or Google winding up petition for Horse Hill you will see they have a petition to wind the company up from clearly a disgruntled service company called P W Well Services Ltd.
   Also I note they twice in the past 6 weeks or so have moved reg address and strangely even though they are well run (apart for not paying a bill ‘allegedly’) they seem to have not filed fairly basic first accounts that have to be Done by September.
   Surely their must be a question other future permits if they are rubbing up well service company’s the wrong way….
   Just wondered your opinion as you have covered the company before..
   Thanks….

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   tony

   29 July 2015, 17:34

   Tom, and Duck and Dive.
   LGO has plummeted 50% or more in the last 2 weeks. Why this might be is a good topic to discuss! A lot can be discounted by the falling Oil Price, some maybe on your bearcasts!
   but not all.
   I find both your view points interesting, yet very much at odds with each other.
   It troubles me because I have a few quid in LGO, and you leave me wondering: BUY/SELL/HOLD?
   Tom says he is suspicious, because LGO’s output has not risen this year, (about 1000bpd)
   despite drilling more wells. (The implication of this is that the resource is running out: LGO has to drill more wells into the same source to keep up production).
   Duck & Dive says production costs are only $10 per barrel, so at a current price of $50-60
   per barrel LGO is making loads of dosh!
   Obviously both are true, because RNS are not allowed to lie (sic :-;)
   We have to choose what to believe, so I put myself in the position of LGO CEO:
   He has a falling Oil Price, and he has a finite resource in Goudron. It wont last forever.
   He has costs to meet. He has a company to run.
   What does he do?
   Well, if I was in his position I would do exactly what he appears to be doing:
   The price for his oil is low, so he is producing just as much as he needs to cover his costs.
   He is proceeding with his exploration work, so that when the Oil price rises he can control
   production to his advantage.

   Low Oil Prices will not last. The US Shale Oil Fracking will be seen to be the nightmare
   bubble that it is. Oil supplies from the ISIL beleagured middle east will be threatened.
   Conventional Resources in peaceful areas of the globe will prosper!
   I think I will Av Down tomorrow! Because next year will be pay day in Trinidad!