Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Sam Antar, Wales, Globo and how do you play the UK housing bubble as a bear?

Comments

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   kennyb

   27 September 2015, 10:38

   ? Is it not just as simple as shorting the housebuilders with all their plots and empty houses?

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   Phil

   27 September 2015, 12:20

   I posted before the Investor Show that you should try and get Sam Antar as a speaker. I don’t admire many people, least of all in the share markets, but I rate Sam Antar very highly.

   I well remember Crazy Eddies re Antar Eddies. It was the darling of Wall Street and when it was exposed for the fraud it was, Wall Street were stunned. What made Crazy Eddies almost unique as a fraud is how easily they morphed from one fraud to another whenever anyone starting having suspicions, and course the creation of the now legendary Panama Pump.

   There are similarities with Quindell, but as I recall Crazy Eddies was undone due to a hostile takeover, but they have pretty much screwed the companies that bought them.

   I have never met Sam Antar but I have seen some interviews and you can see he is a complete charmer with a wicked sense of humour. His website White Collar crime is essential reading for anyone who wants play the markets, so well done, I am pleased I have already booked a ticket

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   andrew

   27 September 2015, 13:17

   Shorting housing –
   Interesting as I couldn’t see any obvious paths either.
   When the housing bubble pops next time it will not be triggered by a recession, but by interest rates rising (my assumption).
   The normal suspects (diy / building supply) may be negatively affected but I am not so sure as buyers have more money to spend on a new kitchen (asset price fall not a general recession)
   Similarly, estate agents will suffer as income is proportional to house prices, but I think the number of (forced) sales will increase which would reduce the effect of a price fall.
   I cannot see whether the number of non-forced sellers falls or not.

   If house prices fall but there is no recession, you could look at the modern successors to northern rock for shorting.
   (https://www.cml.org.uk/news/largest-lenders-in-2014-reflect-a-competitive-mortgage-market/
   not least as they need to keep their capital ratios up
   - so the interesting ratio is lending to market cap and Aldermore has 1.2bn of lending and 972m market cap.)

   Personally I am considering going long insolvency practitioners. (Begbies Traynor)

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   JASPERTHERDOG

   27 September 2015, 17:36

   Housing short suggetion:
   LSL Property Services. They have recently bought Marsh & Parsons in West London, but have roots in the frozen North, so may not be insulated from a downturn.
   You mention Foxtons only to dismiss them as being too up market in London, I seem to remember they caught a cold in the brief downturn last year, they are to be watched.
   The refurbishment businesses like ENTU and perhaps Safestyle will catch it when the market breaks, as will second line refinance and debt management companies, e.g. Fairpoint and, maybe, Arrow. In the house builders second liners like Inland Homes, Urban & Civic and Henry Boot will not be able to realise their land banks.
   Just mulling it over. Enjoyed the chat, as always.

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   Phil

   27 September 2015, 23:50

   Why bother?.

   Just pop down the local bookie and have a bet about how many steps further down into the basement Britain’s business will have taken before it dawns on the electorate that this Tory government is even more stupid than the last.

   Not forgetting the election premise was to be a party for wealth creation via business and massive inroads into Britain’s feckless welfare state. Here is the reality (Source – London South East) , I’ll call this one “Eating the seedcorn” :-

   http://www.lse.co.uk/sharecast-news-article.asp?ArticleCode=23357148&ArticleHeadline=rolls-royce_says_taking_r&d_an_option_if_grants_are_cut

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   BlueFrew

   28 September 2015, 04:14

   Both Paragon and Aldermore have been securitising a significant chunk of their loan books. Whichever institution(s) bought those particular ticking time bombs better hope the hole blasted in their balance sheet isn’t too large.

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   filthy lucre

   28 September 2015, 07:38

   I’d stick to trying to persuade us that everything is a fraud if I were you Tom. Allegations of fraud are the quickest way to bring a company down. You might be right about housing, but timing is well nigh impossible.
   I am not you though, so I think that reckless allegations of fraud are damaging and immoral, if not illegal.

   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/48fc81ce-65d2-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz3n2VlUfA7

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   Charlie

   30 September 2015, 06:16

   I looked at how to play the housing bubble and came up with another potential route. Why not target another, potentially larger bubble that will pop but is inextricably linked to the housing market? Auto Loans – they are out of control and demonstrating an equivalent subprime loan bubble as dangerous as the housing bubble pre-2008. Except that this time the loans are made against an asset that has very limited intrinsic value, needs refreshed far more frequently and can only depreciate.

   Bear with me on the link…

   So when interest rates do rise and the big mortgage squeeze starts, people will have a choice. Mr & Mrs Joe Bloggs will have likely taken the cheap mortgage rates over an extended period as justification to leverage elsewhere – what better than some shinny metal on lease or loan. Just take any standard street an look at the quality and purchase cost of the tin sat outside. I would suggest vast and at a higher level than previously. Where it was Fords and Fiats it is BMWs and Mercedes (they have great 0% deals based on free money). Anyway back to the rate squeeze.. when the squeeze happens people will have a choice: house or car? I suggest that it will be house every time and that the number of car repossessions will rise quickly, the number of cheap 2nd hand cars will rise, the interest rates on new cars will rise with standard rates and the number of people wanting to take new loans out will decrease. Bubble burst and then multiplied by the housing bubble. Bubble x Bubble = ??