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Black-Swan

A 100 year war with Daesh, oil worthless in 30 years - the Black Swan 2016 Newsletter

Each year my friend Richard Poulden produces a very thought provoking New Year Newsletter and the 2016 edition is a stormer. It is also the most pessimistic I have seen yet. Pour yourself a stiff glass of whiskey and brace yourself.

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Comments

  1. I hope he’s right that Britain votes ‘leave’. I suspect that initially there will be little change but at least we’d steer our own path on a global basis.

  2. Yup, I agree with all of that, I could have written that myself, if only I had the words

  3. What a load of drivel from RP ……….. stone has never been more expensive than it is now , try buying some . If thats the future for oil then things are all good under the hood . He drivels on like a polite Whining Froth thats forgotten to take his anti depressants. Keep away from people like this …………. their gloom is infectious . Live for the day and be happy in it ……. you wont ever get that day again . As for terrorism ………. you can call it what you want and just one more bigot kicking chunks out of Obama is not going to help . What goes around comes around and we are just reaping what was sown for centuries by our various crusades and colonialism across the globe . The economic cycle is what it is ….. a cycle … learn to short , and be happy you whinging pole cat . It will turn up again when its ready . Yawn.


  4. handybrownone

    Poulden – you are a complete lazy arse a sensationalist and totally irresponsible. You re-hash somone’s excellent article and get it wrong

    1. “There is also the problem that once a Caliphate is declared it is the duty of all (Sunni) Muslims to support that state”. SO every Sunni in the world – are you sure? This not what the article says. It says that a caliphatic has been declared and some Sunni’s are going. What about all the Muslims who don’t believe that it is true caliphate set up by God? What about all the Salafi’s who believe that war and everything that is in Daesh is not Koranic? A caliphate set up by God they will follow and declare themselves but this is not it. This is a war of ideology and truth and you fail because you just promulgated the wrong version. Perhaps the people drawn in are not so much religious zealots (I’m sure there are many) but people economically oppressed and with no opportunity – such as people in the country where you live who have few rights and opportunities to better themselves or their families.

    “It is also worth noting here that the Christian bible talks about apostasy and also talks about putting to death unbelievers.” and quote two bible verses. Unbelievable. No. it says that the those people will be judged by God. It doesn’t say that Christian have to go round be-heading apostates. We haven’t heard of a Primate asking for such a things what for say a few hundred years wouldn’t you say? I think theologically this point is disproved so why bring it up??

    You are right to be concerned but you just set out one stall – you underpin the extreme polarisation by not discussing all the issues. What is your motivation to write such twaddle. Clearly you wish only to boost your own ego and somehow make yourself popular and elevated. TW obviously likes you and I can see why….

    By the way I think all you previous theories about China will also come to zero. This is ready to fall

    Your main crime that I charge you with is not being an egotist but in fact sending lots of investors money to money heaven in Wishbone which is an absolute basketcase. Originally placed at 2p and numerous placings after. You squeezed 250k our of the market in Sept 2015 to keep the lights on – presumably becuase you dare not ask for more. Black Swan FZE is yours I assume?

    “Amounts owing and Debt Settlement Shares allotted include, inter alia:

    (a) Black Swan FZE is owed £810,541 (US$1,267,168) and such debt is to be settled by the allotment of 324,216,359 Debt Settlement Shares;
    (b) Easy Business Consulting is owed £28,500.95 (US$43,863.53) and such debt is to be settled by the allotment of 11,400,380 Debt Settlement Shares;
    © George Cardona is owed £25,000 (US$38,475.50) and such debt is to be settled by the allotment of 10,000,000 Debt Settlement Shares;
    (d) Alan Gravett is owed £25,000 (US$38,475.50) and such debt is to be settled by the allotment of 10,000,000 Debt Settlement Shares; and
    (e) The Z/Yen Employee Benefits Trust is owed £25,000 (US$38,475.50) and such debt is to be settled by the allotment of 10,000,000 Debt Settlement Shares.

    Yesterday it hit it’s lowest SP yesterday of 0.11p to sell – presumably because a lot of these share have been sold onto the market? When are you going to update the market on what you lot have been doing to deserve your rich rewards? Presumably there has been absolutely nothing going on? I think you will read this at some point as your ego can’t stop you have a quick look at comments on Tom’s site for your article. So please issues an RNS :) Happy 2016. I look froward to reading your 2017 “predictions”

  5. Daesh, send in Dad’s Army, kill themselves laughing, mind you, they don’t laugh.

  6. By profession I am a (liberal) Biblical and early Christian historian who has an interest in investing on the side. Others have pointed out, but Poulden’s comments regarding Protestant-Catholic history and attempts at Biblical exegesis are nonsensical.


  7. Mick Hoxofter

    Like many oil doom mongers, his focus is on the replacement of fossil fuels with renewables. This overlooks oils importance as fertilizer and as the basis of most plastics and it’s many other uses. You may be able to power an electric car with wind (atmospheric or from the back of a cow) but you cant manufacture one without oil.

  8. Can’t argue with that apart from the Trump call, surely he would beat the Hitlery in a one on one cause she has too many skeletons in the closet and Trump would destroy her in any live debate.

  9. People can go round the houses for a lifetime, making all sorts of interpretations about versions of Islam, believers, non-believers. The answer is just so obvious and covers all of Islam, simply stop killing Muslims.

    This is why this has erupted, because you simply find excuses for killing them, or supporting regimes that kill them. You all bang on about Daesh, has Daesh has now become an “in” word. Saudi Arabia has beheaded far more of it’s critics than Daesh, but of course Saudi is an ally, clearly Daesh is not.

    Syria is now nothing more than the 3rd failure to install an Anglo/American puppet king into the Middle East to replace the one you lost in Iran. If you keep killing them and by the thousand, they will melt you, killing you by the one. For you life is precious, for them life is cheap, and you are screwed. It really is that simple. Just stop killing them and the peaceful children of islam will do the rest.

    So why don’t you mind your own business for a change, you can’t even run your country properly. They don’t need you, they never did

  10. 2 bears in the same room together, must have been riveting !
    “Britain to leave the EU” – I guffawed and lost any credibilty remaining at that point, reckon he just wanted to pounce on any remaining doom-mongering stone left unturned.
    So – load of baloney imo !

  11. Quote “As America moves towards self-sufficiency in oil they might well abandon the Middle East to its fate. “

    American self sufficiency in oil is one of the most pervasive falsehoods being propagated today .

    Even some within the American administration seem to believe it .

    Light tight oil production onshore the U.S. is not capable of making them self sufficient at anything like current consumption levels . Production is reckoned to plateau before 2025 .

    It’s absolutely brilliant that liquids and gas can be obtained from these tight reservoirs but let’s not hype it beyond reality .

    If RP had done any research on the alternative’s to fossil fuels he would have reached a different conclusion but it seems he’s bought into hype and sentiment instead .

    Interesting hypothesis about proliferation of missile technology . Perhaps RP is expecting oil savings to arise out of peoples fear of flying and getting shot down . Not as implausible as it sounds .

Complete Coverage

That Was the Week that Was 7 Days of ShareProphets

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  • 23 October 2026, 12:41
DGQ
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GEX
Letter to the FCA – suspend Georgina Energy shares now and launch a full enquiry
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GBG
GB Group – half-year trading statement, now a value Buy?
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CRTA
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GEX
EXPLOSIVE GOTCHA!: Georgina Energy has misled market 100% about its drilling permits ahead of 2 fundraises
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VLRM
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Thursday »

IKA
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  • 22 October 2026, 16:05
Bearcast
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  • 22 October 2026, 14:27
Crime-Scene
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  • 22 October 2026, 14:14
FAB
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VLRM
Chat GPT analyses the Valereum LIES ( 2026 only)
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VLRM
BREAKING: Valereum – this is FRAUD Part 2 on the California Bezzle
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 12:21
WSBN
A letter to London’s worst Nomad – re Wishbone gold and the planned rescue placing, is it 10p or lower?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 11:27
ATG
Auction Technology – trading “slightly ahead of current market expectations”, but what’s already discounted in the share price?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 22 October 2026, 10:58
VLRM
BREAKING: Valereum – this is FRAUD Part 1 on the California Bezzle
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  • 22 October 2026, 10:27

Wednesday »

GELN
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  • 21 October 2026, 16:09
Bearcast
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VINO
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EDGE
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PBX
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DOM
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WSBN
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ECOB
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  • 21 October 2026, 08:25

Tuesday »

TRI
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  • 20 October 2026, 16:29
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G4M
Gear4music – I having last month noted caution on half-year performance, what about now a “Half Year Trading Update”?…
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  • 20 October 2026, 14:27
ECOB
Eco Buildings – no I do not have a scooby
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TRUE
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IES
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TIN
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  • 20 October 2026, 11:23
GEN
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BSFA
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  • 20 October 2026, 09:20

Monday »

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Bearcast
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  • 19 October 2026, 15:44
GELN
Gelion – “Strong Independent U.S. Validation of Gelion's NES”, timely ramptastic?
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  • 19 October 2026, 13:34
DGQ
Artificial Intelligence is not as clever as bear raider Evil Knievil, a self styled natural genius, – Delta Gold
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MNTL
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IES
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Crash
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Boom
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Sunday »

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Saturday »

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  • 17 October 2026, 14:51
FVA
An “ahead of expectations” and further growth potential Buy
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  • 17 October 2026, 12:09
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Friday »

PR1
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  • 16 October 2026, 15:49
Roulette
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  • By Steve Moore
  • 16 October 2026, 15:30
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Why Amaroq will tell me to Foxtrot Oscar
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  • 16 October 2026, 15:22
Clown_Funeral
The FCA admits that it is utterly useless: Evil Banksta is left almost speechless as am I
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Bear
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BMV
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  • 16 October 2026, 11:46
Confetti
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AMRQ
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THX
Thor Explorations – “Q3 2026 Operating Update”, a further cashed-up Buy
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Collapsing-Reactor
The Morning after the AIM awards dinner – more bad data from the Casino emerges
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