Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 9 January: In denial, Paul Scott, Quindell & China nutters

Comments

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   cooperman

   9 January 2016, 10:29

   Tom, for the life of me I cannot understand why S & G bought Quindell, it defies even brain dead logic. They did not even try to get it on the cheap and paid through the nose ! It almost as if Quindell had secret pictures of the S & G board in compromising positions ! Totally nonsensical . Someone please tell me why they bought it

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   Simple Moving Avarice

   9 January 2016, 11:05

   The Chinese stock market rose about 50% in the first half of 2015. (In fact it was up over 100% since mid 2014. You never see moves like that on the FTSE100). There were no screams of pain. Now it is coming back to a more reasonable level and everyone is screaming blue murder.

   The BBC helpfully explain that in China “there’s a class of share buyer who treats it almost like the dog track”. In other words most of China’s main market behaves like the micro-cap sucker stocks beloved of LSE’s BB morons. Can you imagine if we had circuit breakers for a stock like NEW after it rose 10x on the back of a cack-handed placing debacle to try to stop it going back where it should be?

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   phil

   9 January 2016, 18:08

   A quote from Mark Twain. It is easier to fool someone that to convince them they have been fooled.

   In the almost exclusive unwinding of Quindell by TW and Shareprophets, they have found lies, intrigues and frauds in everything they looked I find it very difficult to believe that in this forensic analysis of Quindell, that deep inside it there is a diamond of a valued gemstone that TW and Shareprophets have missed.

   I also do not accept that all the fraud within Quindell was sold out to Slater & Gorden, I think there is still a lot of this story to come out, and I doubt we will ever know the complete picture and of everything that went on. Terry is the only one that knows it all, and he wont be for telling

   I continues to say, Quindell was created to be a fraud, was a fraud, that the fraud was total, everything in was a fraud, there is no real value in it anywhere other than shareholders put there and the SP will over time be 0p.

   As far as deluded criticism from incompetence like Filthy Lucre and the BB morons, It is clear that the only people they seem to revere, buy into and almost worship, are players like Rob Terry. I would consider any criticism from this group of deluded group of idiots pretty much a complement.

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   wildrides

   10 January 2016, 06:16

   If the world keeps growing its economies then China MUST be in growth . Its makes just about fecking everything we consume or the components of those things .

   Scotty is just saying its a good stock pickers market in retail ………. cant see how your opinions differ really . Your just too lazy to stock pick a sector and prefer to blanket avoid ,where as he likes to “nerd up” on all the individual companies and stock pick .

   Glad to hear your not fecking Zac …….. his wife will be relieved and yours too .

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   Paul Scott

   10 January 2016, 08:09

   Hi Tom,

   I agree with you that, if China, US economies go into recession this year, then the UK will probably follow them.
   So in that scenario, then I would also expect profits & share prices of UK retailers to fall.

   However, my main point was rather shorter term than that – namely that the erratic weather patterns over the winter have significantly hurt non-food retailers, with High St footfall well down, and this is nothing to do with macroeconomics, it was down to the weather.

   Therefore, as things stand right now, some (very selectively) non-food retailer shares are good value in my eyes. That could change if the macro picture deteriorates though, as you rightly say.

   The fall in price of SPD looks a very good buying opp in my view – Mike Ashley is a nightmare, but a lot of the other problems at Sports Direct have been wildly exaggerated in the press, and are in any case fixable things. So I very much like this now at c.435p, and bought heavily on Friday after the mild profit warning.

   BON is looking interesting – I haven’t bought yet, as am uneasy about the well regarded CEO leaving.

   BOO – as you know, I’m a big fan, it’s one of the few big stars in the online-only space. Hopefully trading update on Tue should be good, as up against soft comps, and they have a new App driving sales this year, plus I see Wholesale is growing – BOO products are now on Asos, and the Next Directory.

   FCCN – has almost doubled from recent lows, so a very nice recovery (I backed up the truck at 23-25p, as noted on advfn bulletin board at the time).

   HOME – a massive winner for me this year, after it being (by far) my heaviest loss last year, so am relieved more than anything to have recouped my losses, and made a decent profit on top. The Bal Sheet strength is key here, and lots of people simply missed that – surplus cash & near-cash (the store-card book) of almost £800m! It was a complete no-brainer when the market cap reached that level – basically an EV of NIL, for one of the UK’s biggest internet retailers (half of sales are now done online).

   Laura Ashley – good value, amazing yield, strong Bal Sheet, and trading quite well. Cheap. Downside is horrible ownership structure (similar issue to SPD), and Australian franchisee recently went bust, which might hurt sentiment. Also trying to expand in Far East, which doesn’t look well-timed, but OK as through franchisees.

   MySale – very good value potentially, if turnaround gathers pace. Moved from loss to profit.

   Other than that, I’ve not bought any other retailer shares (apart from a dabble in Majestic Wine). I wouldn’t touch any supermarkets, and am short of Ocado (nonsense valuation, for a lousy business).

   All I’m saying, is that with many non-food retailer shares off heavily because of the unusual weather patterns, this is a good time to at least look at the sector, and try to find the bargains!

   Regards, Paul.