UK 18:26 Friday, 23 October 2026
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
An RNS from LGO Energy (LGO) late yesterday announces that hapless CEO Neil Ritson is presenting at yet another conference in Trinidad. Boy that guy must have some air miles. The presentation which you can download HERE is truthful but misleading in respect to the calamitous decline in output. I refer you to page 2 which is below. This is a shocker.
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Comments
Duck and Dive
Why would he bust a gut to include the data from Q4 with its disruptive well accident and non-representative production data? The more meaningful metric is the routine operations prior to the well loss which demonstrates depletion better than the disrupted quarter.
Tom Winnifrith
D&D
Not busting a gut. He has all data & should show it all to give a fair view. Output was declining well before the accident. The data he has used is deliberately picked not to show that
t
Drunken Sailor
They are little tinkers aren’t they. Even if we are being harsh in our estimates of Dec 15 production and it is nearer 800 BOPD – it can’t possibly be much more than that, that is a 50% decline in a year when they spunked about $10m in capex drilling new wells and working over old wells. I am sure that refinancing this quarter – it is tits up time when they can’t pay the froggies the $500k they owe in March, is going just swimmingly over in the US, after all there aren’t any US companies in dire need of refinancing, oh wait a minute there are shit loads of them chasing after the few remaining mug punters who are prepared to put money into oil at the moment. The yanks to like us quaint Brits, but they always look after their own first.
D & D your argument holds no water. The loss of the well is permanent so it is not a short term blip. The well was never producing so they have not suffered a loss of existing production, they have not got the increase in production – which would have declined very quickly anyway. In production terms the data is completely representative of the real world situation and routine operations. The issue with the lost well is financial. They spunked a total of about $3.4M on it and have nothing to show for it. It is not clear exactly how instrumental that event was in the Froggies pulling the plug on the rest of the drawdown and demanding staged repayments. However it would have played a major part in Froggy decision making – they are a bank not a charity for poor unfortunates who have a well go bad on them. You can have a parallel universe type debate on would LGO have still gone tits up had they not lost the well and all the dosh with it. However it would be a rather pointless debate because in the universe in which we live it has happened and LGO is going tits up. The only real question is will it go tits up in March, or possibly earlier, or will some sort of horrendous refinancing package get done which completely screws shareholders – a bit like what was on the table for AFREN before they had a few mishaps with wells in Nigeria, which enables them to limp on and die quietly 12 months later? Either way LGO shareholders are screwed. Traders may be able to get a few more pump and dumps out of them before tits up time, if they time it right, but if they get it wrong they will be locked in with the mug punters they are trying to exploit.
wildrides
Whinni Froth you are thick . The decline rate is normal for the region ie high in the first year from “Initial output” . What matters is what is being produced now to pay the bills and what the current bills coming in are like in proportion ( after cost slimming ) and doubtless we will find that out shortly . Certainly the Whini Maths you produced is wrong and now you are quoting Drunk Maths instead to support your argument . Your whole crit smacks of desperation as your own tips plummet like OPTI and Teathers ( zero) and your short like FastJET rise relentlessly ( up 6p today against a market down 3% )
The only alarming thing in the presentation you completely missed was the number of bodies working in London head office compared to field operatives ……… which is too high in the current oil price regime . There you are , I have helped you out with you vendetta bashing . How sad your approach is to this company .
Drunken Sailor
Wildes,
Stop criticising others who are using the best available data to provide analysis to fill the vacuum left by the company that is clearly trying to hide how grim things are. If they managed to produce Dec 14 figures on 6 Jan 15 why have we had no production update at all since the Q3 figures? (Q3 being Jul, Aug and Sep and not Jun Jul and Aug).
If you think the analysis is wrong present your own analysis based on real data explain how you did the analysis and maybe someone will listen to you. By dribbling on, adding nothing of value to the debate and not admitting to your own mistakes you have zero credibility.
Duck and Dive
@DS – your argument is flawed insofar as this field, like most others, needs new wells coming on-stream to compensate for the decline curve in existing wells. Losing a key new well did therefore distort the picture.
Nor has the blocked well been written off. Given the dosh, which is clearly lacking, LGO could circumvent the blockage.
wildrides
Drunk ……… your clearly drunk again . I used the real data ………….. you made up data , along with Whining Froth. However your data was made up in slightly better quality than Whinneys made up data . But it was made up . And you used a time machine when making your data and the rest of us dont have “Time Lord” qualities . We prefer not to include wells not yet drilled in our calculations . I am content to deal with real facts issued via RNS and I shall wait for that . I am not in the game of market abuse by presenting opinion as fact . The company will or wont overcome its difficulties depending on when the oil price recovers . and that is a material fact . That is the same for the entire oil industry at the present time. We shall have to be patient and see what happens . By dribbling on and making up data and presenting opinion as fact you are adding nothing of value to the debate or your credibility. Its a nice sunny day out side Whinnys Bottom hole and I suggest you take time out to enjoy it ;-)
PS Whinny is now quoting your made up data in his pieces , as apposed to his own very badly made up data , so you can now feel really proud your data is better than his .
Hugs & Kisses
WR
VINES
massaging the figures is part of their job description as aim company directors. if they didnt ramp the shares with spin an employment tribunal could do them over for failing their duty as aim directors
Drunken Sailor
Wildes,
Was 12 months to Jan 16 production an average of 1,153 BOPD as stated in the presentation or not?
Simple yes or no or are you going to bring up a load of spurious crap to duck the question?
Please show where I, not Tom, included wells that had not been drilled in Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sept not Jun Jul Aug) incorrectly or inappropriately in my analysis. Provide the complete cut and paste from the comment where I did that or shut the fuck up.
Just to show you how it is done:
wildrides 14 January 2016, 18:28 Whiny Froth you really are the limit ………….Your Winni Maths is terrible and you are going to have to issue another apology . The Group production you quote at 895 is for the average BOPD THIRD QUARTER 2015 . Ie June July August 2015 . You have included wells producing after that date in your Winni maths ………..what are you like . The conclusions you draw are thus flawed and worthless . – See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/17953/lgo-energy-the-real-reason-its-worthless-depletion-rates#sthash.BUPzr1fA.dpuf
Drunken Sailor
D & D
“this field, like most others, needs new wells coming on-stream to compensate for the decline curve in existing wells.”
Agree 100% but even bringing on 4 new wells in Q3 still led to a decline of 6% that is not good news – “operations at Goudron have slowed pending completion of the refinancing expected in Q1 2016” oh fuck that means production is falling all the time at a much greater rate now doesn’t it! just don’t try to put an estimated figure on it by doing a bit of analysis from official data (not from the company of course because they try to hide the true story), because Wildes gets upset when you do that.
“Losing a key new well did therefore distort the picture” no losing the well is a fact and is therefore the picture. You distort the picture by saying we somehow need to ignore the fact it happened.
“Nor has the blocked well been written off. Given the dosh, which is clearly lacking, LGO could circumvent the blockage.” Again agree 100%, they have given up because they have no money. Yes if they had money (and if your aunty had balls she would be your uncle) they could spunk it away drilling round the problem, but would the investment be worth it given the POO and given the chronic decline rates on the field. You seem to be arguing that we should ignore production figures from the point at which this happened until they have the money (very unlikely) to redrill it and then we can start looking at them again. What a good idea! oh that is effectively what LGO did in their presentation, ignore shit data and include good data instead and try to pass it off as 12 months to Jan 16 data – are you applying for a job writing LGO bullshit presentations? Next you will be saying the 6% decline from Q2 to Q3 is indicative of the underlying decline rate because it is right to ignore the temporary effect of the politically motivated increase in Spain that artificially and temporarily boosted Q3 figures (plenty of ramping about the Sept (for the benefit of Wildes Sept is in Q3) Spain production in the presentation, giving figures that had not previously been released – what do you think Spanish production is like now they have proved the point they wanted to make to support their licence applications and have stopped pissing money away trying to squeeze more out of those very old fields?) and ignore the new production that was brought on stream in Q3 without getting the drilling gear stuck down the hole.
wildrides
Drunken ………… well if you cant see it in Winni Froths analysis then you are blind and drunk and possibly thick ……… you shut the fuck up yourself and wash your mouth out and stand in the corner with a dunces hat on . You did not do any analysis ……… you just guessed . The wells in question were not operating until the end of the quarter being reported July Aug Sept 2015 and one was drilled after that period . The averages cannot be deduced accurately by Whinny or you . ……..obviously ……. because you dont know the decline rates and the published data was initial .
Hugs and Kisses
<WR
Drunken Sailor
Wildes,
Thanks for ducking the question. I will take that as an admission that the presentation is misleading in exactly the way Tom says it is and it is the company that is twisting the data to fool people and not me.
At least you now admit what a twat you were saying Q3 was Jun, Jul, and Aug.
My analysis took account of the dates from when the wells were operating, Tom’s did not and I have repeatedly said that that was why it was flawed and that 1 tiny well, which Tom included and I did not, did not start until after the end of the quarter.
The offer remains open for you to prove me a liar by cutting and pasting the comment where I said I agreed with Tom’s figures, which are flawed, but his overall conclusion is valid – LGO is fucked.
XXXXX
DS
Simon Hodges
DS
Which tiny well is it that is supposedly outside of the period?
If it is well GY-672 then at the latest, production from that well was first announced on 18th September 2015 in the Interim results.
“ Well GY-672 has been flowing oil naturally from a 272-foot interval of Goudron Sandstone at an initial rate of approximately 60 bopd.”
http://www.lgo-energy.com/rns-detail?id=13221949
That well was obviously a duster in the C-Sands so was recompleted in the Goudron Sandstone so technically it is not a C-Sand producer anyway. In terms of the 15 new wells drilled it is a member of that group so can be included on that basis. In any case, 60 bopd does not make any significant change to the overall depletion rates.
wildrides
Drunk person
Take it as an admission of nothing …….. you did no analysis …….. you just guessed what you dont know . I am not a ladies front bottom either ………. wash your mouth out and stand in the corner . The fact is the wells in question were only producing for a few days in the material quarter and you dont know how much they produced . So you cant just quess the effect on depletion and try to pass it off as fact . You jump on the Whiney vendetta if you want . LGO may end up fecked along with most of the rest of the industry if the price decline is prolonged or deeper or both . But one thing is sure ………. the two of you making wild speculations as to what you dont know is not helping them .
Be a friend not a bully ………. There is no fraud there , it is just oil price . I dont object to Whinny covering the issue once but I do object to his continual daily picking on this one company out of the many oillys struggling because of his vendetta with DL . He is just a bully and it is unpleasant to behold. I shall continue to defend the underdog ,although I dont currently have a holding . That is likely to change if I see an attractive entry and oil price levels off or rises from todays position .
Hugs & Kisses
WR
Drunken Sailor
Good to see Wildes still believes obviously misleading propaganda put out be the company and therefore has Zero credibility and just clogs up the comments section like your average BBM. The only reason why Wildes cannot be classed as a BBM is he does not post on BBs. Maybe he ought to start, people might take him seriously there.