Fox Marble Trading update - buy

Comments

1. ---

   bob brush

   22 January 2016, 09:54

   Tom

   This looks exactly like one of your red flag stocks. but oddly you seem to be bullish on it.

   - jam tomorrow promises – Check
   - Drop in profits – Check
   - Missed targets – Check
   - Large Debt – Check
   - Expensive debt- Check
   - assurances that it will try to do deal with creditors – Check
   - massively cash burning – Check

   If you looked at this from a non-biased position having never tipped it, would you really come to the same conclusion? because from here it looks like one of the companies you so regularily lambast, except with no lambasting.

2. ---

   Duck and Dive

   22 January 2016, 12:27

   @BB – I was just going to post the same comment. They came out with a similar line last year, saying that the bulk of the 2014 order book had been pushed into 2015 and now, with just €230,000 booked in 2015, it’s all pushed back yet again.

   What happened to the Berkeley Homes order which was due to be delivered in Feb 2015? Did the whole 900 sq m get delivered and if so at what price?

   What happened to the two-year €300,000pa deal with Marmi E Graniti D’Italia signed in Oct 2014, the first of which minimum 100 tons per month deliveries was taking place that month? That order didn’t include any of the troublesome Illyric white and Sivec stones.

   And the big Banyan Stone order for £1.5m worth of block marble, the first tranche of which was due to be delivered in early 2015 has obviously not happened either.

   How long are these customers prepared to wait? And don’t they want to re-negotiate terms now that the world is falling into a recession?

   Now, Feb 26, 2016 seems to be a key date with €600,000 due to be paid over as a deposit on the €2m order, the balance of which is expected on delivery which is expected in Q1. The form book says don’t count on it happening this year.

   I would certainly want to see some of these promises delivered before risking any cash in what is already just another non-delivering AIM stock.

3. ---

   Eshaitan

   22 January 2016, 16:31

   -Average profit margin 75%
   -If the offtake agreement with china comes through its break even this year already without taking any more orders.
   -huge potential for growth, all the orders so far come from uk/Europe where marble is the least used. The biggest markets are India, China, North America and Middle East and they have yet to be exploited.
   -ITS SAFE! Very cheap to get out of the ground, low tech, no capex or ongoing maintenance! Worldwide demand steadily increases year on year, prices are stable as there are no spot prices. If you want a solid stock/product that is largely immune to worldwide shocks this fits the criteria right next to gold :)
   -The board are on low renumerations and want to pay aggressive dividends as they are major shareholders. We’re on the same page.

   Shareprophet’s does get tips wrong time to time. Still hurting from shorting APR but when they tip fundamental stocks they usually get it right. I think the timing of the tip was wrong but no one could have envisaged the issues with accessing quarries and having the marble cut out and ready which is a requisite for the orders and offtakes. This should be fox marble’s year where they come good. I have averaged down a lot here but still 20% down as of close today but I’m very happy with the shares I hold here because the fundamental case has not changed and the newsflow this year should be pretty good.

   Watch this space Bob….

4. ---

   Daz

   23 January 2016, 01:36

   Looks like one of those businesses that got listed just to create fees for crony brokers etc.

   What a cluster f@ck up of epic proportions since it listed, not a single objective or target met.

5. ---

   Bob the brush

   23 January 2016, 03:35

   ok, even if the future is rosy, usually Tom is very sceptical about resource companies that aren’t actually producing much output and cashflow but promise big things. essentially when it was first tipped and probably still now this is a jam tomorrow stock. he hates jam tomorrow stocks. why tip this so early? I am not having a rant at him, I generally agree with this analysis and I bought opti and did very well out of it but I don’t get this one, I just to know why tom likes it and is ignoring his usual red flags.

6. ---

   Jason

   23 January 2016, 03:48

   Made some money on original tip so thumbs up to shareprophets for that. Like others though the non performance and string of excuses since put me off reinvesting although it’s on the watch list.

7. ---

   TheMadStork

   23 January 2016, 04:07

   Have to agree with Bob and D&D here. Honestly, would you be tipping this if you weren’t already invested? Personally I don’t think so.

8. ---

   Tom Winnifrith

   23 January 2016, 04:24

   Mad Stork

   Read the disclaimer you thick upper class twat. I am not invested, neither is Steve, neither is FIML, etc etc. We own no shares. Surely even a trustafarian can understand the words in the disclaimer by himself?

   And yes I think the shares are cheap otherwise I would not say so.

   T

9. ---

   testpack3

   23 January 2016, 04:49

   Besides the obvious Red Flags Bob Brush mentioned, the big one for me is the Royalty payment, payable to a Gibralter registered outfit, on every tonne of marble that leaves the Silvec quarry. The CEO of Fox allegedly worked with one of the owners of the Gibralter outfit before the Royalty payment was agreed. This is a story that TW would normally get his teeth into. Strange. Target price for Fox, 2p.

10. ---

    TheMadStork

    23 January 2016, 05:02

    I may be thick and a twat, but unfortunately I’m middle class at best.

    Still don’t see the bull case given the huge red flags.

11. ---

    wildrides

    23 January 2016, 07:06

    As jam tomorrow stocks go this is nearly as good as WSG . I fully expect the factory to burn down during the commissioning phase , the government to seize the mining licence as soon as it looks like making money and demand for product to dry up in Whinneys market collapse prediction scenario .
    Seriously , in this company run by “Mr Bean” what could possibly go wrong ?

12. ---

    Richard

    3 March 2016, 08:08

    Tom, is everthing tickertboo at Fox? I have mailed Chris, but obviously he is going to say yes. You are better placed than me.

13. ---

    warun boofit

    3 March 2016, 13:07

    I hope TW is right about FOX and that it eventually comes good but it really shows off the best of Zak Mirs forecasting skills, a technical analyst at the peak of his profession. I read his analysis on 8 June 15 , he mentioned ‘ a classic vertical unfilled gap through the 200 day moving average’ and then followed soon after buy a ‘golden cross buy signal’ which could be followed by a wonderful journey up the tramlines from 25p to 35p within 3 months. Of course the reality is that Mr Mir was already up the hill at 25p and the tram was about to make the return journey to 18p three months later so perhaps Mr Mirs technical anlaysis has its roots firmly in fairytale culture :

    Oh , the grand old Duke of technical analysis,
    He had ten thousand shares in Fox,
    He marched them up to the top of
    the tramlines and he marched
    them down again.
    And when they were up they were up.

    And when they were down they were down.

    And when they were only half way up,
    They were neither up nor down.

    (altogether now repeat )