Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 11 Feb: Trivial Pursuit Q, the sexual hang-ups of Swedes and Leni-maths from Neil Ritson

Comments

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   A N Other

   11 February 2016, 08:20

   You seem to know very little about the companies you comment on. I can only think that you are on a little earner. How on god’s earth is CNR’s gold of a low quality got a low quality gold and has poor infrastructure….. really where’s your facts? You seem to just like hearing the sound of your own voice. Have cnr refused to pay you?

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   Tom Winnifrith

   11 February 2016, 08:28

   AN Other

   You post your lies anonymously. Is that because you are a coward or just a masturbating little twerp or both?

   I have called CNR DOWN correctly. It tried to sell itself & no-one was interested. It runs out of cash in June. Those are facts.

   I have not asked CNR for money partly because I would not & partly because I know it has not got any.

   It is not the gold that is low quality but its asset which is no-one wanted to buy it when CNR tried to flog it

   Go jerk off somewhere until you can offer facts rather than just ignorance & smears.

   t

   PS I do not like hearing my own voice but our page stats suggest that lots of other folks do

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   Drunken Sailor

   11 February 2016, 09:00

   The link between interest rates and inflation rates are largely a myth created to pretend governments / central banks can control inflation. There are so many macro economic factors that really drive inflation that the idea that increasing interest costs on everyone drives inflation down and decreasing them drives inflation up is bollocks. Possibly the biggest factor which has driven inflation down and in some places created deflation is the crash of the oil and other commodity prices. Shockingly input costs for virtually every industry decreases and therefore output prices can decrease because most producers face competition and therefore cannot pocket the increased margin and this flows all the way down to the retail market.

   MTV – I expect there is a major ramp going on so Bergen can dump their shares before final trading on Friday. Exactly the same thing went on at TXO before they were suspended. Nomads seem to resign with immediate effect when it is only PIs who are going to be lobster potted. If an institution (if you consider Death Spiral funding providers to be institutions) is going to be lobster potted then they resign with notice so the institution can dump and the institution can arrange for some market abusing ramping so there are enough mug punters to take what they are offloading.

   I was hoping MTV would suspend with a price of 10 thousandths of a penny as I think that might be an AIM record. But alas it looks like the mug punters are going to deny us that record.

   LGO should replace ACE on the death list when ACE dies next month. Go on – I know you don’t care if Wildes spams every article you then write with comments about your personal vendetta against Big Dave, who really is not involved at all in these companies, despite tweeting about them constantly.

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   Geoff

   11 February 2016, 10:43

   Hawarden Kite

    The Hawarden Kite was a famous British scoop of 1885, an apparent instance of flying a kite, when Herbert Gladstone, son of the then Leader of the Opposition William Ewart Gladstone revealed to Edmund Rogers of the National Press Agency in London that his father now supported home rule for Ireland. The expression refers to Hawarden Castle, which w…
   Found on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawarden_Kite

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   James

   11 February 2016, 12:48

   MTV – if I understand the RNS correctly from 4th Feb, the company had 1,241M shares in issue and then issued a further 1,594M shares (giving a total in issue of 2,836) to allow a debt to equity conversion for debt holders Bergen. They also settled a debt with a supplier by this same share issue. The new share capital was covering fees and debts worth £143.5k in total, which is not a lot in comparison to the total debts the company has run up.

   From an RNS issued today at no-one-is-watching o’clock (17:36), it would seem that Bergen have been selling down their shareholding and trying to convert to cash some of their holding (going from an ownership of 27% to 20% of the share capital in issue).

   As Tom referred to in this Bearcast, tomorrow is likely to be the last day before MTV loses its nomad, unless it can pull a rabbit out of the hat in its final minutes…

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   Phil

   11 February 2016, 15:25

   Drunken Sailor

   The first paragraph in your comment totally nails in better words than I could use.

   But it is better for shareholders to understand that although deflationary falling input prices migrate into all contributory trade and deflates them,, it does it in linear and proportional way. The real damage happens however when deflation acts on fixed costs, as contributory values get smaller the leverage factor acting against fixed cost inflates causing fixed cost liabilities to increase It is this key point regarding increased fixed costs liability, so little understood, is the real margin buster.

   For companies that trade low stack fixed costs and can still create margin, albeit reduced, they can overcome these issues by increasing turnover, and if they generate a lot of extra turnover they can actually thrive in these conditions. For companies that trade medium stack fixed costs, their profits will fall, and despite them being tipped for recovery, they cannot reclaim their previous posituon merely by increasing turnover with lower prices. They must also reduce their fixed costs.

   For companies that trade high stack fixed costs, and here I am talking about companies that trade intangible assets, Cloud, Analytics, or companies that are just the middle men, the consequences will be severe and shareholders should really consider these companies uninvestable as a high percentage of them will go bust.

   What companies should have done and what they should still do is to reduce their fixed costs in which ever way they can. What they should not have done is to create debt to carry share buy backs. These companies are going to suffer.

   It is still not to late for shareholders. I would forget about buying for recovery for the moment and instead get out of companies that trade high fixed costs and look for those that trade low stack. Alternatively for those that run a margin book these companies that trade on high stack fixed costs become natural candidates for the short book, which is what I am doing.

   Now it has been very good for me, but it never stopped me taking a bath when Tosca opened to possibility of a bid for INTQ. Now I don’t have the guts to trade with no stops, so I trade with stops as wide as I can get. When INTQ tripped my stop it went straight into auction, by the time it came out, there was a lot of water in the bath. Nothing comes without risk

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   wildrides

   12 February 2016, 03:28

   Ah ……..I see your whinning and frothing again and Drunk is again drunk and playing with the permeability of his Super Highway . Interest rates up = more of peoples/companies credit limit used up paying interest on past purchases = less to spend next month = less demand = lower prices needed to capture market share = Defalation = Simples
   As for LGO or any other small oilly ………. its very possible that the lender will just re neg the terms again to get paid what ever can be afforded by the company concerned . They are not going to want to run a distressed asset they cant sell in the current oil price when just waiting for oil price to recover will recover their loan in time . Blood is being spilled all right and its all over the carpet of the majors in terms of job losses and field shut downs and investment suspensions . The blood is not in the minors as was widely predicted . When one company sheds 10,000 jobs world wide ( yes 10,000) you kinda know its lowering its activity as those poor folk are not doing what they once were doing to earn a living . Try not to single out long past former Lemon Gas companies as it just makes you look Vendetta vindictive and lacking foresight and balance in a decimated industry . Its the oil price stupid ……… KISS is the key .

   P/s Other is wrong and you are right on CNR …………Condor own an old worked out Russian Mine , and we all know that Russians just love to leave behind assets for the next man out of the kindness of their “barrel bomb” hearts ………….not . Its a complete piece of shite and I’ve studied it being carefully polished to within an inch of its life for the last five years . They have over buffed it and now its so thin and translucent you can see right through it . Child needs to attend the “less is more” course of ramping at ramping college as he has totally over done it relentlessly with CNR

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   Drunken Sailor

   12 February 2016, 04:54

   Wildes,

   Record low interest rates for ages = record low inflation and in some areas deflation. Yes you are simples if you believe the myth that putting up interest rates brings down inflation and bringing down interest rates puts it up. Interests rates are a very crude macro economic lever which when you pull or push it there is no guaranteed effect on anything because so many other macro economic factors play into not just inflation but a whole host of other factors.

   Banks are under extreme pressure again, because they have lent foolishly yet again, supporting a number of bubbles created by low interest rates. Banks need to get back as much of what they have lent to people who can’t repay as possible. Lending more or to people who can’t pay is not a smart thing to do. LGO are fucked. They have not been able to make any capital investment to keep up production for months, thus production will have declined markedly, thus not only do they need relief from the repayments, they need a massive injection of fresh capital and even then they still won’t be able to produce cheaply enough at current oil price, which still shows no sign of significant recovery. Last year LGO updated the market on production on 6 Jan, we are now in mid Feb and not a peep about Q4 production, I wonder why that is? They know exactly how much was produced and they know exactly how little cash they had at year end. They have not told the market either of these key bits of info. There is only one simple and correct answer to the question why not and that is because the figures are dire. Anyone thinking of investing will want to know those figures, unless they are simpletons who believe in any myth that suits their distorted view of the world.

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   wildrides

   12 February 2016, 07:18

   Drunk ………you are drunk …………. and answering questions that no one asked . All small oilies are in the same boat ………….. its the oil price stupid ………KISS.

   Interest rates are the best tool for lowering inflation ……….. they are THE lever . Its just that banks cant resist lending badly ……….simples . The route of all evil in financial markets is greedy bankers ……..always has been and always will be . If they cant fix LIBOR they will just find something else to “fix” so they can get the next “fix” ( substitute conspicuous item of material wealth garnered with ill gotten gains from bad lending)

   Life is a journey punctuated by the fight between yours and your fellow travelers relative level of greed . No one escapes it unscathed ………ever .

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    lol

    12 February 2016, 11:12

    Hawarden is pronounced Harden (or if you prefer Hard-on).

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    Paul Scott

    12 February 2016, 16:14

    Tom,

    I’ve emailed you the broker note on TRAK that you wish to see.
    You’re completely barking up the wrong tree on this one. I interviewed management, and put over 40 questions to them, all of which were submitted by private investors via Twitter, advfn, and stockopedia, and all the issues you raised were addressed. You seem to have closed your ears and mind to the responses!

    Anyway, as management said in the interview, they’re just now going to get on with running the business. Let’s see what the figures look like when they’re published in early July.

    Regards, Paul. (long position in TRAK)

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    Simple Moving Avarice

    12 February 2016, 18:15

    Paul – I listened to your interview with TRAK and although they answered your questions it was a very lacklustre performance.

    I would have preferred the CEO/chairman to defer to his FD to answer the financial questions (otherwise why was he there at all?) and I’d like to have heard a bit more passion (actually any passion at all) about all the possibly great things they might have planned with Route Monkey on board. But unfortunately it really was a downbeat effort all round.

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    Drunken Sailor

    12 February 2016, 21:55

    Wildes,

    The brake in your car is THE lever to slow it down. If you put your foot on the brake and it does not slow down or worse still speeds up then there is something badly wrong with THE lever. Record low interest rates for and an extended period has resulted in record low inflation and in some places deflation. Thus Interest rates cannot be THE lever. Simples

    Nobody has ever said LGO is the only company fucked and nobody has ever said that oil prices are not the main driving factor as they clearly are. Tom produced a list of 11 companies, only 10 of which were oil companies, that were fucked for exactly the same reasons. The fact that LGO is not alone in being fucked does not mean it is not fucked. Simples