Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 7 March - race to 0p - Fastjet, LGO, Xcite...who else?

Comments

Drunken Sailor

7 March 2016, 05:53

Tom you will be glad to know that following you saying the 3Leg admission document was a complete joke and should be withdrawn and redone (not that you had actually read it), it has been thoroughly relooked at and nothing found amiss and there is no need to reissue it. A bit more work for the crony capitalists, which no doubt they will charge fees for, so they thank you for that.

Life does not begin at incorporation. Things happen before that and binding agreements can be made, which result in the issue of shares, which can be paid for at later time based on the agreement. Agreements and shares can be novated to new companies as they themselves incorporate. The responsibility for CH filings sits with the board of the company doing the filing. Jim Mellon is not on the boards of the company which neglected to fill in the box under section 3 of the SH01 that was filed. I have found no issue with other filings made by the company concerned, so there was a problem with A filing and not filings. The facts are important as you so often say.

We will just have to agree to disagree on mark ups and what is obscene and what is normal. I do agree with you that issuing shares to yourself and your mates at 0.01p then 2 weeks later getting a load of supposedly sophisticated investors to pony up at 2p, without telling them they only own half what they thought they owned because of the earlier issue is wrong. However those so called sophisticated investors were being greedy mothers themselves because they thought they were going to get a great mark up when the shares listed a few weeks later at 5p. That one of the 2p mugs was Chris Oil makes it all the better.

I am looking forward to GUSC doing its RTO. I will be having a good nose through the CH filings of what they reverse in and having a good look at who makes the biggest mark up – as you rightly say, no one should be immune from scrutiny and criticism when it is justified by the facts.

What I find most interesting about GUSC is why bother with an RTO when the company will already have lost its listing. Why not ditch the baggage – we ran out of time, can’t be helped, you took the risk, you knew the rules, and you lost? Why not bring whatever it is straight to market in an IPO? I am sure the re admission document, which I will read most carefully before commenting, will make the rationale for that clear.
Tom Winnifrith

7 March 2016, 06:01

DS

You say doc thoroughly looked at . How do you know. Who told you? Are they impartial or just an adviser to 3LR.

Does the doc explain why RNS statements made by 3LR do not tally with companies house filings. Because it should. It needs to. But it does not does it?.

Just because a crony capitalist tells you something it does not make that true. Or maybe crony capitalists think that there is no need to explain such matters as you just dont need to tell the whole truth these days.

Sorry pal I think you do. I guess we just disagree

Tom
Rhambo

7 March 2016, 06:26

Tom, unbelievable opportunity for bears in XEL today. I’ve got shirts on PCI and XEL now, if they both come off I need your address and favourite bottle of wine….
Drunken Sailor

7 March 2016, 06:32

Tom,

You still have not read the doc have you? Let’s just agree to disagree

I am sure you will be far more interested in what I have just found on Companies House regarding Teathers Financial Software Ltd.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09285287/filing-history

As you know the company was incorporated on 29 Oct 14 with an address given as c/o Inspirit Energy.

At that time 100 shares were issued at £1 nominal all to CA Sperati PLC.

On 14 Oct 15 1 share was issued fully paid for £150,000 in cash.

On 16 Feb 16 The company was issued with a first strike off notification for failing to file its annual return, which was due on 26 Nov having been made up to 29 Oct 15.

This was clearly the kick that was needed to get the directors to live up to their responsibility and file the annual return, as it was then filed on 23 Feb, just under 3 months late.

This shows 100 shares issued all paid at the price of £1

Shareholding 1 is 99 shares held on 29 Oct by Teathers PLC with a note that 1 share was transferred on 14 Oct 15

Shareholding 2 is 1 Share held on 29 Oct by Teathers PLC.

The figures do not add up. How can 100 shares have an extra share issued at a 15 million % mark up and there still only be 100 shares all shown in the annual return as paid at £1.

Something really stinks here and the Sheriff should investigate at once – nobody is immune.
wildrides

7 March 2016, 07:20

Ha Ha Whinny Froth …………… the race to ZERO has already been won by your awful tip
TEATHERS

Teathers mate Teathers
As in Teathers
SA Spurt rati , Teathers and Inspirit ……….. oh how the tenticles reach between Lemongas and Whinny Froth ………………ahem .
P/s Drunk …….. you obviously dont know the Drummond brothers previous reps . Look at the history of the directors of Coms and MDC for a starting point to their wonderful past .
zach01

7 March 2016, 08:00

Alternatively, an honest appraisal of your own company. Read CEO & Chairman’s Statement of One Media……..refreshing.
Millfield

7 March 2016, 08:05

Now it is possible that I am a total mug punter, but I must take issue with you on your assertion that buying companies with yields >10% and looking too good to be true must be just that.

I recently (Oct-Jan) changed my SIPP portfolio to hold 100% (except for POG) US shares. Apart from gold/silver miners, the balance of the holdings are equally divided between BDCs and mREITS, bought at a discount to book of 25%-40% and yields of 13%-25%.

The strategy was to diversify away from UK and European stocks, and to take advantage of US dividends paid into a SIPP being totally tax free.

At the time of implementing this strategy I reasoned (hoped) that the possible currency gain plus maintained (or not too reduced) dividends, would produce a sustained gain over and above a possible (or probable) capital loss.

Like all good plans this one has not worked as expected, as only two of eight US stocks are currently showing capital losses, one being very minor, whilst the rest are in profit, with four being substantial. This, together with the dividends already paid (monthly and quarterly) has produced quite stunning returns. These are enhanced of course by Sterling weakness.

This month I subscribed to your Hot Rockets, but have yet to garner enough courage to invest in a further AIM stock (I hold only AMA and HGM in ISAs). My experience on AIM thanks to TB of RHPS was not a happy or profitable one.
Drunken Sailor

7 March 2016, 08:07

Wildes

As I was never interested in buying TEA – I am sworn off all shitty little investing companies, I am not interested in doing the full research package, which always starts with directors histories and always includes an anorak session in CH filings, before I make my investing decision.

Tom seems to think cock ups in CH filings are a crime of the century, but having looked through so many CH filings there must be very few companies that have not cocked one or 2 up, I generally do not worry too much as long as I can understand what really happened – having a comprehensive admissions document helps here and it is therefore fine to not worry if a bunch of Doctors make a small slip up on one filing.

I take strike off notifications much more seriously. Quite a lot of companies are a week or so late with Annual Returns. Although they are far simpler than an annual report, you do only get 28 calendar days to file them. Being so late you get a strike off notification and then still cocking them up is not the crime of the century either, but it is a far more worrying indication about the business acumen of the management. It will be interesting to see if iOx (not Oxi – it does harm the credibility of what you are saying when nit picking if you can’t even get the name of the company you are criticising right) filies its annual return on time and correctly by 9 Mar (have to wait a few days for CH to upload, but the date filed is always there).
Tom Winnifrith

7 March 2016, 08:08

Zach01

You are right on that Michael Infante statement at OMIP – that is exactly what a CEO should say. Honest and readily understandable

T
Drunken Sailor

7 March 2016, 08:20

MILLFIELD

Good old Tom Bullshit at RHPS, many a bucket shop placing was done into his tips. Subscribing to RHPS was the worst investment I ever made, as it was responsible for many years of AIM losses. The best investing decision I ever made was cancelling my subscription and learning to do my own research. How do you get on with researching your US plays?

I have an ASX stock (underwater but getting close to breaking even now) and have had others in the past. But mostly I stick to UK companies, because I know where to go to research them and with the CH beta service giving free access to filings and the wonders of Google, it generally cost nothing other than my time.
eyeguy

7 March 2016, 08:36

I’ve e-mailed Mr Chase again. It has been noted by another shareholder that the previous placing was with Smaller company capital limited only 5 weeks ago. This is London based and the RNS suggests this money was raised in sterling. Yet the very frickin people who are buying these shares that the company have issued at a discount do not have any rights because we aren’t Australian. I’m absolutely livid guys.
You really could not make this up. I have e-mailed Fiske to see if any corporate wrong doing has been done.
If so I would want the new BOD to reclaim all the cash back from this stalling.
Duck and Dive

7 March 2016, 08:50

When it comes to Fastjet, you’re a bit of a twerp. If you paused your headlong dive into sensationalism for a moment to exercise a few brain cells you would realise that today’s RNS had to be signed off by a reputable chairman and a nomad. It is simply inconceivable that the company could claim to be managing ok on its available $20m cash if it actually was trading while insolvent (or anywhere close to it). So quit cackling and grow up.

In case of need, it also owns a $15m Airbus 319 which it can flog or borrow against. And it will see increased passenger revenues over the imminent Easter holiday and in the July/August holiday period — which is when airlines make their money.

Thereafter it will know whether or not it can see out the year on its current resources and cash flows. As of now, it thinks it can — and it will have to back up that forecast with some hard data over the next few days given that Stelios has called for an EGM. You probably should have waited until then before making yourself look silly again.

There are potentially other sources of cash too, including local strategic investors and other airlines.

And by the way, Fastjet didn’t say last year that it would be cash generative in 2016. The December update stated that the company expected to be cash generative in 2017.
Tom Winnifrith

7 March 2016, 08:57

D&D

I said the forecasts were bollocks and the shares were a sell. You said you believed the numbers and the shares were a buy.

You now say you think there;s a enough cash. I disagree. We shall see. But so far you have called this one like a twerp and myself and BB have got it right.

He who laughs last eh…..

T
Drunken Sailor

7 March 2016, 09:13

EYEGUY

Unfortunately you can be 99.99% certain that the Aussie lawyer Chase is spunking your cash on to advise him on these matters is giving him the correct advice iaw Aussie law, which is similar to UK law in many ways but not exactly the same.

I went after an ASX company that used to be dual listed but dropped the AIM listing and transferred all shares to ASX. I did, with others, eventually get the CEO sacked, but only after he had completely trainwrecked the company and the shares were already suspended never to return – I eventually got a tiny payout from the Chinese company that was majority shareholder and pulling all the strings anyway when they bought all shares they did not own. I tried to get a class action going but the jurisdictional issues were too great as we would have been going after the Chinese puppet masters in China.

Together with another UK shareholder we mounted a major campaign to get a fair deal from the Chinese who where robbing the company blind when it was still trading. We had all sorts of insiders giving us the dirt and we were in contact with all sorts of regulators. We had a Chinese speaker in the action group who translated e-mails I sent to the thieving Chinese bastards, who spoke no English. The lesson I learned from this is get out as soon as you know it stinks. If you want to still give them a hard time sell all but 1 shares so you can remain a shareholder to give them a hard time. But if you think you are going to get more of your money back by holding and fighting you are probably deluding yourself. That does not mean you should not bother to fight though. Give them as much hell as you can through as many different routes as you can, too few people bother and that is why they get away with it only to come back and do exactly the same thing time and time again. Best of luck keep up the fight.
Duck and Dive

7 March 2016, 09:51

“You said you believed the numbers…”
No I didn’t.
“…and the shares were a buy.”
I didn’t say that either.
“You now say you think there’s enough cash.”
Nor did I say that. That’s what Fastjet said in today’s RNS. I said, given the chairman’s credentials and the nomad’s regulatory duty, that it couldn’t possibly be interpreted as “trading while insolvent” which was your wishful/wilful invention.

Say what you will about The Guardian and other print media, they wouldn’t dream of making up the hogwash that you seem regularly to revel in. However news is delivered, the first rule must be that it is true (or at least double sourced). If that goes out of the window because hotheaded bloggers just want to drive traffic to their site, then just the rubbish is left.
Tom Winnifrith

7 March 2016, 10:00

D&D

SEE A DOCTOR QUICK! You are suffering severe memory loss. May I refer you to all your prior gloating posts when FJET shares went up as others believe in the bogus forecasts. You kept on cheering them higher. Either you also believed the forecasts (fool) or you did not but just cheered anyway (knave). Remember all these postings from yourself now ?

http://www.shareprophets.com/views/17483/fastjet-today-s-rns-does-not-alter-the-fact-that-it-is-going-to-zero
Drunken Sailor

7 March 2016, 10:10

D & D

Are you trying to win BBM of the week with that comment?

“RNS had to be signed off by a reputable chairman and a nomad.” If you time reading and contributing to SP has taught you nothing it must have taught you what bollocks that argument is. Liberum Nomad to great companies like Excite, Audioboom and Plus500!

I have been sticking the knife into Eden on ADVFN because nobody else was. One of the key arguments is Eden can’t have commited fraud or be in dire financial straights because Shore Cap would have done full DD before taking them on as Nomad & Broker. It seems to be readily accepted that WH Ireland were shit (joint broker to FJET alongside Liberum) but Shore Cap have great reputation and somehow are not subject to the massive COI that being both broker and Nomad creates. I have e-mailed Shore Cap twice about issues at Eden. They have not replied (I did not expect them to, they should not reply, but they should get an RNS put out clarifying the serious issues raised – they have not). In many ways well done to Liberum on this one, they signed off on the bollocks statement regarding profitability and cash generation a couple of months ago, things have changed and in accordance with rule 11 they have made the company put out an RNS saying so. They have however allowed the use of the meaningless term “cash available”. Is that net current assets, is it cash in the bank or worse still is it cash in the bank plus any overdraft facility they may have managed to negotiate. We can only guess because the term cash available is not a recognised accounting term. The only real question is do they need to do a placing right now or can it wait a few months as they do not actually need to get the accounts signed off with a going concern statement until 30 Jun.

They could easily be technically trading whilst insolvent, but they can still claim that they have a reasonable expectation of getting a series of placings away that keeps the lights on and they can always do another death spiral with Darwin – Darwin made a fortune out of the last one – it completely fucked the shareprice and diluted shareholders to buggery but who care about that they can always do another capital reorg and consolidation to bring the shareprice back into whole pence rather than fractions of a p.
Tom Winnifrith

7 March 2016, 10:18

DS

As I have now made explicitly clear any of D&D’s numerous ramptastic posts on FastJet are admissible for BBM of the week, feel free to nominate away. You are spoiled for choice.

T
Drunken Sailor

7 March 2016, 10:22

Forgot to say Liberum only did the right thing by rule 11 AFTER Stelios had blown the whistle – anyone else blowing the whistle would have been ignored.

I always quite liked Stelios when he appeared in that awful reality TV show he set up to promote Easy Jet that my wife used to put on. He is a Greek Cypriot as opposed to being a proper thieving bubble and squeak.

D & D can be quite sensible on other matters. Just like BMD there is good in the man.
Millfield

7 March 2016, 11:24

DS

I find Seeking Alpha invaluable as I get alerts on every stock I put in the watchlist, and they have very knowledgeable contributors who provide much informed analysis on many different sectors.

For XD dates, Short Interest and Insider Dealing plus many other features, NASDAQ.COM is a fantatic tool.
Duck and Dive

7 March 2016, 11:28

“Remember all these postings from yourself now ?”

Of course I remember them. And however long you spend ploughing through them, you won’t find any of the quotes/reported comment that you have lazily/childishly mis-attributed to me (ie. invented).

As a shareholder, I did take natural delight in rubbing your nose in Fastjet’s rise – coming, as it did, hot on the heels of your uneducated 0p forecast first aired on 22 December, when the shares were around today’s price. That rise saw the SP swiftly move to 75p — a near 75% gain that you steered your followers away from.

As for today’s RNS, the only new news therein was the confirmation that Fastjet still had $20m cash available at the end of February and expected not to need to raise more. This was actually good news, even if the trading environment in Africa is weak at the moment. The planes will fill up for Easter – with many passengers paying more than the headline lowball price for earlybird bookings.

So, plenty still to play for — especially if Stelios succeeds in cutting overheads.

@DS – I’m well aware that nomads can’t be relied upon to do the regulatory job they were appointed to do. I am more interested in the oversight provided by Fastjet’s chairman, Colin Child, whose CV is impeccable.
Phil

7 March 2016, 14:51

I can’t help feeling that for circa 90% of private shareholders investing in shares is a lot simpler than all this.

This is my 3rd year of using the internet and is it only on the internet have I ever been involved with other shareholders, up until then I have played a lone game.

Seeing others has thrown up a number of surprises and the most obvious is how so slamdunk stupid some of them are. But another big surprise is just how many shareholders actually put time and effort in the defending or promoting their shares.

I was a product of child labour, and I enjoyed it. But I did notice that I was working my bum off for very little money, my supervisor worked less than I did for more money and the boss did no work at all yet made the most money. It made me realise that making money from other people working for it was the easy money. and in the fullness of time, that is what bought me to the stock market.

I thought the whole idea was for the company you have invested is supposed to do all the work, I thought that was why shareholders paid directors, so the directors did all the work and you made all the money. I see now why Lenigas can run so many companies, no wonder if he has all his shareholders working for him. It isn’t even as if you make it hard for him, every time he asks for more money, shareholders stump up.

Do you think if you made Lenigas work a little harder for shareholders he might actually create some wealth for a change. Why is there such a rush to get into Horse Hill, why not wait, and when the companies working Horse Hill actually do some fucking work for a change on the Horse Hill project instead of working their shareholders and wasting shareholders cash in the process. Do you think if shareholders made those cocksuckers work for their money they might be a little more accurate and reliable as to what shareholders are getting into.

Do you think perhaps AIM is really going the way of USM, that it’s ultimate failure will be as much to do with dumb-arse investing as much as anything else.
NEMESIS

8 March 2016, 02:34

Phil

Don’t take this the wrong way but I think you should be further on in your learning curve after 3 years.

A lot of shares have resident experts on bulletin boards and it’s your job to find them as they can fill in the gaps your research and analysis misses. Alone it’s very difficult to get all the answers as the best investors have a structured way of thinking and that leads them to analyse in a particular way, occasionally it requires a different mindset and approach to disrupt this process for the good of all concerned.

Nobody has all the answers, however much work you do it’s never going to legislate for exceptional items and changes in the macro environment but you do the best possible and adjust your position accordingly as changes arise. Thus people don’t necessarily “defend” shares they own, it’s just they have more invested in them, this leads to them researching more fully and having a far better grasp on matters than those who do not.

My suggestion would be to find what you believe are the people with the biggest grasp on the shares you invest in, ascertain if they know their stuff and then listen to them whether bullish or bearish. You will find they do a lot of the work for you. BUT you must find the right people, not somebody who is necessarily a prolific poster, but somebody who’s reasoning and rationale for what they write makes sense to you.

Then occasionally bashing that person sometimes works too, because it makes them rethink their original justification for their position, I for one have certainly appreciated this in the past. But the overall effectiveness of bashing em when your knowledge on the subject matter is a fraction of theirs, and both sides know that, needs to be put into context.

In my opinion Tom’s come a long way over the last 18 months, most profoundly by gaining independence and attacking anything and anyone as he sees fit. Overall it’s a good thing. However at times it is going too far the other way and becoming a bit personal, and this is reducing the accuracy of what he writes. There’s a lot of his calls I think are valid 0p calls, but to extrapolate those calls dependent upon if a particular person is or has in the past been associated with that company and make these 0p calls too doesn’t work and will ultimately shown to be inaccurate.

I’m far from being an expert on Fjet but can appreciate the business model from what’s gone before with junior European discount carriers. The early/ traction phase is long and the time to financial stability and sustainability is long because of a number of factors notably a high amount of initial investment and entering what I consider an established branded “cartel like” sector with significant barriers to entry. This is no different. Imo it ain’t a 0p share.

Regarding Leni shareholders they are not stumping up at all, and this is part of the issue, always is. Whatever company he runs, he disapplies the pre-emption rights, always seems to find a need for cash, and then dilute behind the scenes at a discount and not to existing shareholders. This is the real problem.

Allied to that is the greed which has become associated with the ventures. He says “You can’t make a business with bottle tops” to justify the endless placings and he’s right, but when you get to the stage when your giving yourself 140m shares at 0.01p (£14k), nobody listens, and their right not to.
phil

8 March 2016, 16:06

Nemesis

If Tom Winnifrith didn’t get personal, I wouldn’t bother listening to him

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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 7 March - race to 0p - Fastjet, LGO, Xcite...who else?

By Tom Winnifrith

7 March 2016 04:44

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