UK 15:37 Friday, 23 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: Financial Investigative Media Limited, which is not owned by Tom Winnifrith but by a trust for his dependants, owns shares in companies mentioned in this article. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
The sizzling rumours - MX Oil (MXO) and Moneyswap (SWAP). I start and finish with a favour to all of my younger or more IT minded listeners. If you can please action that today it would be fab, Then I move on to look at Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX), Nighthawk (HAWK), Stanley Gibbons SGI), Starcom (STAR) and, in some detail, Cambian (CMBN) - where I do hope you heeded my warning 141 days ago HERE.
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Comments
chris quinn
Hi, Re Nighthawk….see RNS from yesterday which some see as positive. Agree does not improve financial position but more jam tomorrow?
Duck and Dive
It was positive that Nighthawk received conditional approval from the regulators for their proposed Arikaree Creek waterflood project. And that they appear to have maintained a decent level of (hedged) production without any new wells. However, having taken a sub-1p punt on them a few weeks ago, I was happy to jump ship yesterday at almost 3p as the rise looked very frothy to me if not a tad engineered. For long periods throughout yesterday’s rise it was impossible to sell automatically which didn’t add up when the SP was doubling (although it made me a few extra grand as I had tried, and failed, to sell at all prices between 2p and 2.8p).
HAWK are still treading a fine line with their bank loan covenants even after coughing up $4m last month out of their total “available” cash of $6m; and with the waterflooding project delayed by several months, production must decline while they wait. The Jan 11 RNS said that HAWK had adequate liquidity to continue its existing operations through 2016 – but it’s a moot point whether the waterflood project counts as “existing“…and anyway it has been delayed so I’m expecting some kind of fundraising soon.
The bad decision to farm in to a neighbour’s acreage last year cost HAWK dear – not simply because the resulting wells were expensive dusters but because the company clearly felt that drilling someone else’s asset on unfavourable terms was a better bet than developing/exploring their own 200,000 acres.
wildrides
I had a very similar experience to Duck yesterday trying to get out of Hawk while the price was rising and buys coming in . Just like Duck ended up getting a better sell price later ! The water flood permits allowing large increase in recoverable reserves was deffo the reason for rise but well overdone with MM manipulation or an incompetent maker on the desk . You expect not to be able to sell at approaching peak but selling into the rise with buys flooding in was near impossible yesterday . Most likely a big sell order undeclared “under water” that needed a certain price height to action .
Duck and Dive
Yes, it was a funny day. Maybe they didn’t have enough MMs on duty so had to close down the system for long periods while they caught up…in which case I just didn’t try at the right time. I saw plenty of trades going through but assumed these were Limit or At Best which I wasn’t willing to do.
Anyway, HAWK will presumably be able to borrow more under their Reserve Based Lending deal when and if the waterflood delivers the reserves as forecast. But that could be Q4 or later. Meanwhile, they will need at least $2m by their earlier estimate to implement the waterflood scheme (although this sounds cheap to me); and they are burning cash. According to their 4.11.15 RNS, they had $11m cash available at the beginning of November and this had shrunk to $6m by the beginning of January ($2m after handing $4m over to the bank). So, ostensibly, they were burning $2.5m per month – but this may be too simplistic as oil revenues can fluctuate and I’m not sure when they would receive their hedging payments.
I would also like to see the outcome of the lawsuit brought by Running Foxes/Tedesco. I think the waterflood hearing exposed Tedesco’s true colours and expect his claim to be thrown out; but he is obviously willing to waste a lot of cash on legal fees so can’t be completely discounted.