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US Intervention in Iraq – short term respite – long term disaster

By Tom Winnifrith | Monday 11 August 2014


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


Ben Turney today suggested that US intervention in Iraq would see Isis beaten back and is thus an opportunity to buy Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Genel. He cites some curious examples to back this thesis up.

You can read Ben’s piece HERE and my piece over the weekend explaining why Kurd oil stocks are a sell HERE.

Where Ben is mistaken is in thinking that we will see prolonged US involvement. Obama does not want that. Sure the Islamofascists may be driven out of Kurdistan pro tem. But they will simply retreat to Sunni dominated area of Iraq where ISIS is popular and to Syria where the US WILL NOT pursue them. And the Kurds will not advance into hostile territory so ISIS will regroup in safety.

And its ranks will – I fear -be swollen by thousands of young men and woman who as radical Muslims reckon that America’s prime enemy is their best friend. Obama has unwittingly become the great recruiting sergeant for ISIS. As the US planes disappear ISIS will venture forth once again into Kurdish territory. And elsewhere.

Oddly Ben cites US air power as swaying the war in Libya. Ahem… the West (wrongly) intervened. The old tyrant Gadhafi was killed. But what do we now have in its stead? An islamofascist run madhouse where Westerners are having to be evacuated. Libya is a worse place and more of a threat to the West as a result of our intervention.

Ben also cites Syria saying that had the US struck against Assad with its planes that country would have been at peace. Er… yes it would be run by the non-Assad forces which these days are led by …ISIS. We armed and trained the rebels in Syria many of whom are now fighting for ISIS. Our intervention was disastrous. Had we kicked Assad into touch we would have handed a full victory to ISIS.

Western intervention in the Middle East does not bring peace – that was something I learned studying this region going back to the fifties while at Oxford. Maybe it is not a lesson CNN teaches you.  Our intervention merely strengthens those who hate us most.  The legacy of the war criminal Blair and Bush in Iraq is that it is descending further and further into chaos (there has been a coup in Baghdad today BTW). There will be ebbs and flows but what was Iraq is now ungovernable and uninvestable. And that is why I remain a seller of both Gulf and Genel.

Tom Winnifrith has just published his new e-book, The 49 Golden Rules of Making Money from oil, gas and mining shares. You can buy it on Amazon for £6.25 or you can order a FREE copy HERE


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Comments

3 comments

  1. Don’t underestimate the Wests interests in keeping oil flowing from Iraq. Syria has fuck all oil. Ukraine fuck all except people with missing teeth. The west will protect its interest.

  2. Steps to democracy or at least better human rights take centuries not years . These interventions by America and others to try and limit slaughter and set boundries to human behavior are just part of this evolution . The UK has a 500 year headstart on this path . Time and plenty of it will see improvement for these nations currently in turmoil . America and others must lead the way,or at the very least sign post it , and try to limit the human suffering along the path for the “innocents” . Toms non interventionist policy is just wrong on so many levels and devoid of all hope for so many . It is the position of an Ostrich. .


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