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Horse Hill; the stupidity of buying rumours

By Ben Turney | Friday 24 October 2014


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


At about 3.30pm yesterday, Brokerman Dan revealed his exclusive scoop that Horse Hill was about to yield a commercial oil discovery. This triggered a mini-buying frenzy, which drove the share prices of the listed companies involved in Horse Hill much higher. As the most exposed Horse Hill play, UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) flew from 1.16p, to hit an intraday high of 1.7p, all within the last hour of trading! This morning, as a flurry of RNSs hit the market and the dust settled, it turned out that Dan’s figures were well off the mark. A commercial discovery hasn’t been announced (read the RNSs thoroughly for confirmation of this). Also, the current size of the discovery is “only” a preliminary estimate of 3.1million barrels of oil in place, not 15million to 20million barrels. In the ensuing sharp sell off, UK Oil & Gas is back down to 1.15p. Dan is likely to come in for criticism for his reporting of this event, but this is misguided. Here’s why.


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