UK 18:44 Monday, 12 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Two and a half years ago I wrote this article, outlining the apparent direct relationship between the movement of the price of oil and the introduction of Quantitative Easing. Even though I’ve had this at the back of my mind since, I failed utterly to anticipate the recent price collapse of the black stuff, in response to the withdrawal of QE by the Federal Reserve. This should have been an incredible trading opportunity, not least because the move appears to have wrong-footed so many in the market. In grappling for an explanation, most commentators have settled on a consensus that oil’s fall from Grace is down to fundamental reasons and the lack of global growth. Anyone who has followed the Baltic Dry Index over the last few years will know this is nonsense. Given that the outlook for the price of oil looks decidedly weak, it’s time to revisit three stocks I assessed over the summer and look for any possible signs of encouragement.
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Comments
alcira16247
Ben
Once again a great narrative….. I really enjoy reading your articles.
For what its worth….
I was fortunate enough to have a spare couple of ‘k’ four weeks ago, always liked KGP and am a fan of CEO John Gerstenlauer. The upside has tremendous potential and @ 45 pence the shares were dead cheap, even given the frightening political and military uncertainty….. however I bottled out and put the lot into Hurricane!
Guess, if you’d followed your gut instinct, following the Fed’s quantitative easing policy and I’d followed mine…
You shorting crude @ $100+ a barrel….. Me buying KPG @45 pence, we would both now be quite happy bunnies!
Anyway, hope you’ll post more analysis on where you might think the smaller cap oilies might be heading and where potential opportunities might be, as I know many private investors are alarmed at the current unexpected turn of events.
Ben Turney
@Alcira – Thank you, it looks like we’ve both had a painful miss!
Them’s the breaks…
As for the sector, I fear worse is to come. I read yesterday some commentary that a glut of US shale oil is due to hit the American domestic market and that the Saudis discounting oil prices to American domestic customers. This has all the hallmarks of a developing price war, with the Saudi goal to put the squeeze on the US shale revolution.