UK 17:14 Friday, 23 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Our writers are divided. Ben Turney sees the recent OPEC meeting as disastrous for AIM listed oil shares (HERE). On the other hand Chris Oil (HERE) and Paul Curtis (HERE) argue that the bad news is more than discounted and are buyers of the sector. I started my career as an oil analyst and so what does Tom Winnifrith think?
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Comments
Daniel Victor
Part of the problem for oil exploration companies is that a far smaller proportion of projects are viable at the current lower oil price.Even those that are viable are less lucrative.
wildrides
Thing is readers Tom and Steve have missed out on some stonking oil plays in the last year or two . Look at LGO for a start :- O.60 p to 5p a share and still at 3.80p after the recent fall back . There will aways be exceptions in any sector and by adopting rigid “stay out of sector” rules you miss out on the contrarian plays that take a portfolio from merely good to stonking annual performance . Success for LGO was almost certain to anyone who knew the field after the first drill result . But the experts would still rather push water up hill with a stick than tip it . Dont make life hard for yourself ……… break out of the safe sectors and go contrarian ……. trust your own gut feeling when your research says its right . Aim oilys have already fallen much more than the fall in oil price ( I mean producers not explorers ) . The oil price is close to the bottom and if you are not in it ……you cant win it !
Paul Curtis
Tom
Good video and I agree that quality of AIM directors a concern. I also believe that the business model for small cap oils explorers now holed below the water line. Used to be make large discovery, ramp up share price, raise money at higher price than last placing, virtuous circle. Now any drill success is not commensurately reflected in share price and that’s a lousy risk reward. I don’t see that changing when sector recovers.
I wasn’t advocating ‘filling your boots’ but making a partial investment, maintaining cash reserves incase further falls (as seen this morning!).
Current valuations already discount extremely bearish sentiment towards the oil price. I’m not smart enough to call the bottom but as a diehard value investor I can’t resist buying tangible assets at such a significant discount. Especially when the macro outlook so favourable since the oil price is cyclical. Caveat is no Global meltdown!
I’ve been investing for over 25 years and believe that during this period there have been only four or five exceptional buying windows for value investors. One was the cash rich incubators you referred to when Paul Scott and I bought stakes and agitated for cash backs.
Oil stocks at current valuations represent another. They may well get cheaper still but this is an area, in my opinion, all value investors should be focusing on now.
Oil will bounce and the two issues are trying call the bottom and of course investing in companies that can survive a prolonged downturn.
Best
Paul