Why do writers opt NOT to own the shares they write about?

Comments

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   Paul Scott

   3 January 2015, 05:33

   Hi Tom,

   Or better still, why don’t you stop tipping altogether?
   Instead just give an opinion on stocks, and invite readers to do their own research.
   That’s what I do, and it works tons better than giving advice on when people should buy & sell, which only leads to them blaming you if it goes wrong, as some will.

   Regards, Paul.

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   Tom Winnifrith

   3 January 2015, 05:46

   Paul

   Not sure that business model works on subscription sites.

   How about this for a cunning plan? I just work my socks off for another 16 months and then call it a day and become a full time olive farmer and so the BB Morons can direct all their bile towards you? Whaddya think?

   http://tomwinnifrith.com/articles/5713/picture-article-pressing-the-olive-oil-from-the-greek-hovel

   T

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   turbograndad

   3 January 2015, 05:49

   Tom,
   I personally like the breadth of share discussion here on share prophs, and the genuine and no nonsence spirit of tell it like is commentary.
   No pussy footing blather here, and surely everybody is therefore entitled to their opinion.
   Rock on boys.

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   nigel somerville

   3 January 2015, 06:11

   Tom – does that mean the great global olive oil shorting conspiracy starts today, so that you can buy up all the olive oil producers on the cheap over the next 16 months? I think we should be told!

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   Elrico

   3 January 2015, 06:18

   Tom – You may remember (probably not) a brief telephone conversation 7 years ago when I wrote for lemming and the topic among others was FSA regs, costs associated for using the Queens English, as in buy, sell or hold. For my part as you point out to Paul, the model Paul suggests did not work for me, even when we had 20,000 + hits a week, this did not provide the revenue enabling me to go pro, even though we were able to demonstrate a very high success rate of c65% if my old grey serves me. Any way – serves me right for not taking your advice and not try to go it alone.

   On the subject of writing about the shares you own. At the peak of lemming I requested feedback on what subscribers thought on the topic of commenting on share – should we be owners or not (we were not tipsters as you know), but commentators and the opinion from subscribers was almost 50/50. To that end nothing really changed as we made it quite clear in each article that we held or otherwise the share we discussed. That said, it became clear that subscribers had a habit of buying into shares we owned and that became a vicious circle where more and more updates and opinions are requested by holders to the point it became a serious issue for others and my moral compass…something that contributed to my decision to close the site in an orderly manner some 3 months after you predicted it would fail as a business. Another good call by you.

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   Gary Newman

   3 January 2015, 07:47

   Very interesting topic and personally i prefer not to write about shares that I own – although there will be occasions when i do, the majority of times they will be ones that i don’t hold a position in. This is especially the case with AIM shares as we all know how sentiment driven they tend to be, even more so these days, and I have definitely seen spikes after i have tipped something (had i been holding it would have been easy for people to accuse me of creating a spike to trade myself!).
   If you took the argument of only tipping shares that you hold to the extreme, then you could argue that you should only recommend a sell on ones that you are shorting (if you are that confident that they will go down) – obviously I don’t believe this should be the case, just making a comparison with the buy recommendations. It is difficult as whatever you do some are always going to criticise you anyway!
   Pretty much everything i write about is with a longer term view so that it means that the fundamentals/value that i can see should be reflected by then, and not just in a quick spike upwards for a few days. There are plenty on social media such as Twitter who will claim to be great share tipsters because they have a lot of followers, they tip a share and pump it heavily across the chat forums, then claim to be some sort of share wizard when that causes a spike for a few days/weeks (obviously plenty get impaled on that spike by buying way too high), but if you looked at where their tips were in 6-12 months, or even further down the line, I would put money on them not performing so well!
   I also trade a fair bit, often intra-day, and it would be easy to pick shares for a quick trade – but would be of little use to most ShareProphets readers who have full-time jobs and can’t watch the markets all day, plus of course would preclude me from trading due to the 72 hour rule anyway!
   I am a photo-journalist by profession and have been for over 15 years (mainly in the magazine side of the business) but i also have an interest in the markets, and have had since i was a kid, and i enjoy looking at company and digging into the background of them, so if i can share some of that research/opinion with others it is a bonus. Obviously no one always gets it right – a fair few of my tips have been hammered in recent months due to the big drop in oil prices (few saw it going anywhere near these levels even if they saw a drop coming) but I still believe that long term they will come good anyway, even if people could have bought in cheaper (getting in right at the lowest point of a cycle is more down to luck than judgement, and anywhere near that level usually yields a good return longer term).
   Just my view of course, and I can also understand where Mark Howitt is coming from, although my personal opinion on this subject differs to his.

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   wildrides

   3 January 2015, 08:30

   I for one will miss your output tremendously if you do go to your olive farm in 16 months . I shall just have to make the best of your tips in the mean while . I suppose a video of virgins pressing olive oil with their tanned thighs is out of the question ? Yeah I thought so .

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   Howard

   3 January 2015, 11:22

   Tom,

   Keep going for a while longer please .. you’ve helped me avoid the QPP saga and with NIPT, Obtala, Opti and Stgr made me £50 grand in 6 months.

   Yours,

   A happy rank amateur :)

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   Johan Cruft

   3 January 2015, 12:21

   Tom,

   I get the feeling you are growing tired about writing about shares. It’s clear that you do like writing. So with a bit of luck you can become the new Earnest Hemingway and run with the bulls quite literally. Or perhaps you could even take on Gabriel Garcia Marquez, but if you did I would be sad, because who wants to live 100 years in Solitude. Which I would if I could not read your Shareprophets articles. You have the potential to become an International Best Seller, Immortal and Legendry. “A Thousand Years More of Greek History!” would make a great title!
   Bandits, Whores, Cowboys and Indians, you can do it all!
   GO FOR IT!

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    Jonathan

    3 January 2015, 12:39

    Personally I find it a lot easier to accurately appraise a share which I have no interest in at all.

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    T.Welbourn

    3 January 2015, 15:31

    Do your research Tom, before you become a full time olive farmer & make sure you diversify. Having done your research you will discover that in Italy 70% of the crop has been destroyed/lost this winter due to the Olive fly, in the Var (france) a similar percentage, and in Spain a similar percentage due to drought. In my particular case I lost my entire crop (in the Var) due to the fly, but this I knew at the end of September, having done my research by dissecting an olive sample and finding maggots in each, I realized all was lost. Of course I might have been able to spray against the fly but then I would not be very happy with the purity of the result. But there you are, “Beware of Greeks bearing gifts”, perhaps the only picking going on is “off the ground”.

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    Tom Winnifrith

    3 January 2015, 23:31

    JC

    I sense irony but will say thanks anyway. T Welbourn, fear not my comments are flippant. Ive no plans to go full time into olive oil. I am happy to carry on writing about shares and jointly shouldering the burden of moron abuse with Paul. Of course there needs to be a balance in all things in life and I have other interests which I want to co-pursue in 2015 and onwards. And they are Greek related.

    The RMPC business model will evolve. Darren & I both turn 47 in the next week or so, we need to figure out quite how we work things out

    t