Hot share tips and all the big AIM exposes from the City's most-connected reporters
Each day until New Year's Day, we a showing a photo taken through the window of a ShareProphets reader. Today's snap is by Brian, out of his bedroom window in Frensham, Surrey.
Hello Share Tremblers. As I hold many shares in British companies which do a lot of business in the USA, perhaps I should be getting cautious. Maybe I should beware the Trump effect in the New Year.
Once again I am sitting here in Shipston with a live audience of one, my father. So we have his take on George Michael - mine is HERE. My views on Syria are referred to in the podcast and the article I mention is HERE. Then I go onto my 8 macro calls for 2017 covering Europe and the Euro, interest rates, corporate earnings visibility, fraud & bankruptcies, house prices, shares, gold and oil.
Avanti Communications (AVN) finally published its annual report for the year ended June 30 2016 at 2.22 PM on the last Friday before Christmas, 112 minutes after the stockmarket closed. It is packed full of red flags which perhaps explains the publication at no-one is watching O'Clock. So let's start with an admission of what a crap business this is - the metrics on HYLAS 1.
Reach (R4E) flagged up in its FY numbers in May that it would probably breach banking covenants. It argued this was a technical matter of no concern but the shares slumped. We urged you to buy then.
The impact of record-keeping on the course of history cannot be overstated. For example, the act of preserving Judaism and Christianity in written form enabled both to outlive numerous other contemporary religions, which were preserved only orally. William the Conqueror’s Domesday Book, compiled in 1086, and it was still being used to settle land disputes as late as the 1960s. Now there is a new system of digital record-keeping, emerging and it will speed up the de dollarisation of the world, which has serious implications for us all, not just the West. It is called the blockchain and it is not going away and it will change the way the world interacts.
Following another profit warning recently, InterQuest (ITQ) has been a disastrous tip for 2016 from myself (though, thankfully, outweighed by my other one, Avesco Group, delivering a more than 180% return). But the current 36p offer price for the shares looks to me much too harsh an appraisal…
Kefi Minerals (KEFI) has been hit by the weaker gold price , issues in Ethiopia at a macro political level and by suggestions that its major shareholder ( Odey) may have its own issues. However Mr Odey is doing, we've established that he is not a seller of Kefi. If he needs to raise cash he will do so via larger more liquid positions. The other issues were addressed in a trading statement last week.
Sound Energy (SOU) has performed better than I expected in 2016 and the share price has held up at higher levels than I anticipated, yet I still think the current market valuation is totally crazy at this stage!
Each day until New Year's Day, we a showing a photo taken through the window of a ShareProphets reader. Today's snap is by Howard, with "the view out of my patio window in Portugal looking at my real Xmas tree that's out there ... planted 5 years ago when my son was 7..."
There could only be one winner this week although there were some cracking entries as you can see here. But congratulations to Goggles for this winner found, natch, on the LSE Asylum Cloudtag thread:
The precious metals sector, specifically Gold and gold stocks have been oversold for a while. They recently broke lower and have made a small bounce the past few days. They may have to drop further before a sustained rebound takes place. Jordan Roy Byrne also analyzes the US$ and how its strength could eventually help Gold bottom in the latest video from Palisade Capital.
City slicker Mark Lyttleton of BlackRock is behind bars this Christmas. But not for long enough. How he sinned tells us how bent the whole City is and the joke sentence shows that white collar crime really does pay. This podcast is recorded in Shipston with my father listening. As a stern lefty he would imprison all fund managers not just the crooked ones,
Each day until New Year's Day, we a showing a photo taken through the window of a ShareProphets reader. Today's snap by a Mr Tom W., a longtime fan of the site, with a picture out the back window of his father's house in Shipston.
We cannot hide our disappointment that we go into Christmas with shares in Optibiotix (OPTI) trading at just 61-63p. They really should be far higher and we do expect an exciting re-rate in Q1 2017. We had expected it earlier but were wrong. We won't be this time!
On the face of it, Harvest Minerals (HMI), whose shares have quadrupled since they switched horses from the ASX to the AIM Casino a year ago, seem like a cracking good investment.
With prodigious cash burn the focus of my other sell tip of the year, the focus on this one is the balance sheet in conjunction with current trading…
When it comes to picking a company which is going to perform well over the course of a year, I believe that you need to consider the macro-economic factors that are likely to affect the sector in which it operates.
If you are a ShareProphets regular, please take a photo of the view through your window and email it to [email protected] We'll pubilsh a new one every day.
As Worthington (WRN) heads into administration, Craig Whyte's long term business partner Aidan Earley is trying to blame the media and especially me. He also says that there are questions over an insurance claim and my involvement in a £40 million City fire which is odd as the start of the fire was caught on CCTV and so there are no questions at all. So in honour of the libeller of the week...
Nine share tips tips, defending Churchill, and not missing Nigel Wray. And much more...
If it was not ouzo o'clock at the Sheriff's Greek bolt-hole after the Servision (SEV) debacle it sure is now after UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) fessed up to disastrous news from Broadford Bridge. We bear have been utterly vindicated but there is far worse to come for the morons who thought they knew better - the shares have slumped to 1.9p but they will now inevitably fall to as low as 0.5p in the coming weeks.
As I write shares in AA Group (AA.) are down by 23% at 89p and you will never gbuess which high profile fund manager is a major holder, largely for the dividend income. Yup you got it, its Neil Woodford and yes the dividend is being slashed.
You may say that fundamentals don't matter on the AIM casino. In the short run you are right - sentiment drives share prices. But in due course fundamentals always out and that inherent valuation mismatch is your opportunity to buy cheap, unloved, stock or to short over-promoted crap. And that brings us to UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), now just 1.375p after yesterday's disastrous news from Broadford Bridge. So what is it really worth?
Once again Waseem Shakoor has been vindicated and those morons who ignored his sensible analysis and attacked him have done their conkers. Waseem stays short of UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) and his tweets over the past 24 hours ( starting with the most recent) explain why. I think his analysis of where next is very similar to mine of earlier. Over to the great man...
"CEO Gidon Tahan, ex broker Beaufort Securities, Auditors Hays Macintyre, PR himbo Christian Taylor Wilkinson, lacky Nomad Nick Athanas of Allenby, financiers Yorkville, the Bulletin Board Morons we have beaten them all, we have beaten them all!). Servision, can you hear me? Servision ... your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
"I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day." So said the great Irish author James Joyce. But the question for lackey Nomad James Joyce at WH Ireland is whether his client UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) has a tomorrow, has a future day at all? A statement is needed now to clarify the financial position of his client.
Premaitha Health (NIPT) has announced an exclusive partner agreement to offer the IONA non-invasive prenatal test across Egypt and a first Egyptian customer…
Just when I was losing hope that my insights into the world of frilly curtains and related were proving next to useless, my old pal Dunelm (DNLM) loses another senior executive! To be fair the news that 'Keith Down, its Chief Financial Officer, has informed the Board that he will step down in June to take up a role closer to his family home' is not as shocking as the CEO resignation I talked about in my last piece about the 'UK leading homewares retailer' but the executive revolving door is continuing apace...and has helped push the shares back down to the level I first wrote about them at last August.
Last October I talked positively about Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) versus one of its challenger peers, noting:
Hello, Share Surfers. Ever since my fellow scribe, Cynical Bear recommended Biome (BIOM) I’ve kept a close eye on the share. I also had a punt after reading the article and am now sitting on a gain sneaking up on 40%.
KEFI Minerals (KEFI) has updated that its “activities have been unaffected as regards its daily interface with the various government agencies and with the community at Tulu Kapi” following the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s recent resignation and the concurrently announced State of Emergency - and that it “believes its finance plans remain unaffected”…
Digital retail technology and enterprise software group Sanderson (SND) has updated on trading and that it has “a good level of confidence that the group will make continued progress in the current financial year ending 30 September 2018”…
Shares in traffic and rail software and services provider Tracsis (TRCS) have recently fallen back below 500p, but are currently rebounding on the back of a Trading Update…
Previously updating, we noted HaiKe Chemical Group (HAIK) potentially in the 'geong, geong' stage. There has since been developments - and what does the 'Filthy Forty' look like now?...
Corporate and public sector interiors company Havelock Europa (HVE) “is pleased to announce an agreement in principle to secure additional funding for the company. The company also provides an update on trading in respect of the year ended 31 December 2017”…
Previously writing on energy services company Flowgroup (FLOW) in December I concluded there looks much to do, including noting potential working capital support required. There’s now a Funding Facility and Related Party Transaction announcement…
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