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Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Family tales

I start with the reason for no bearcast yesterday and end with my virtue signalling siblings lining up to be mugged. In between I look at Strix (KETL), Argo Blockchain (ARB), Chill Brands (CHILL), Cellular Goods (CBX) and the CBD pain myth exposed and also at Tomco (TOM) and Shield Therapeutics (STX) where I sense PL will be apologising to the master soon.

KETL
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Strix – another profit warning, argues “a strong balance sheet” but is it?

Kettle safety controls and other water temperature components group Strix (KETL) commences an announcement today that it “is pleased to announce… completed the acquisition of Billi” and also includes that it “continues to maintain its strong market share position in Kettle Controls and is outperforming the market in the Appliance and Water categories. In addition, Strix has a strong balance sheet”. So what of a current share price response to 78p...more than 37% down!?

VRS
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Versarien pre-bailout placing ramp part 3 - rope in a wretched Tory MP: caption contest?

With a majority of just 834 Tory MP, almost, lifelong career politician, Andrew Bowie is probably already trying to find secure employment for after 2024 when he loses his seat. If so he was in the wrong place yesterday as, as a junior export minister, he pitched up to meet the blubbery lardball that is Neill Ricketts, the loathsome boss of Versarien (VRS) which is set to run out of money by Christmas.  It won't be in a position to make him a NED come 2024. From the winner of a reality TV show 21 years ago to a Tory MP who is not even a household name in his own household, Versarien sure pulls in the all the big stars.

HOME
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Home REIT - "we have them on the ropes now" claims Fraser Perring of Viceroy as he publishes new report (below)!

My pal Fraser does not  think much of Home REIT's (HOME) formal response to his bear dossier and now adds to the savaging of "shy bear" with his own formal response, below in full. Mr.Market agrees with Fraser, the shares are off another 9% at just 51p.  His rebuttal below is pretty brutal.

MUL
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Mulberry and Burberry have similar sounding names…but I have very different views on the respective shares

Eight months of so ago I observed that in a choice between Mulberry (MUL) and Burberry (BRBY), from an investment perspective I much preferred the latter. And that has worked out year-to-date, as the former is down over 20%, whilst the latter is up over 15%. How do I feel after today’s Mulberry “results for the twenty-six weeks ended 1 October 2022”?

HOME
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BREAKING: Fraser Perring and “shy bear” bite back as Home REIT tries – and fails – to rebut

Home REIT (HOME) has today published a very detailed and wordy attempted rebuttal of the bear dossier served up by Fraser Perring at Viceroy Research, HERE. But has Home dealt with the bears? Au contraire. Both Fraser and another leading grizzly have hit back with a series of questions and comments which  I can reveal exclusively, below ahead of a conference call at 11.30 AM.

VRS
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Versarien pre bailout placing ramp part 2 – placing a bogus story in the local rag, for the cultists to then circulate

Given that Versarien (VRS) is now running on vapours, the pointless creation of loathsome Neill Ricketts is desperate to pump its shares as hard as it can to get a bailout placing away. Yesterday we saw lovable oaf Craig from Big Brother 2001 roped in. Today we see the use of the local rag.

TOM
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Tomco – yet another bailout placing – can any AIM listed company better this record of value destruction?

Tomco (TOM) arrived on AIM via an RTO int a failed tech business just in time for Christmas 2006. Was that a White Christmas? I only ask because I am dreaming of one and the chap behind that RTO was Howard Crosby, nephew of Bing and cousin of Mary who shot JR.  More than £5 million was raised at 2.5p. Wind forward today and, accounting for a 2017 200-1 share consolidation, the shares at 0.335p, are 99.933% down. Can any AIM dog, still going, match that record of disaster?

JUST

Just a Thought: Take Look at Just. It might Just See a Rising Share Price

Hello Share Wallowers. If you’ve never read Liar’s Poker and The Big Short may I seriously recommend you do so. We all have a tendency to think that every financial company employee knows their subject backwards and keeps on top of trends. But these two books don’t agree. However, one of the many financial outfits that does seem to keep on top of things is Just Group (JUST).

DVO
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Devro – recommended offer, now a little more than 2 months, near 71% gain!

September-recommended at a 180p offer price manufacturer of collagen products for the food industry Devro (DVO) has issued an update including that “current trading and the full year outlook are slightly ahead of the board's expectations, underpinned by a robust performance and foreign exchange tailwinds”… but, more significantly, has also announced a recommended offer... at 316.1p per share!

Bear
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Thoughts on the FTX scandal and a Short idea from one of the few to emerge from it with credit

Back in May I became mildly obsessed by Sam Bankman Fried (aka SBF), now a household name as the new Bernie Madoff. This was after I read a feature on him in the weekend FT, in its Lunch with the FT column in which celebrities from all walks of life who are newsworthy at time are interviewed over a meal at the FT’s expense. The Silicon Valley tech geeks in this series tend to order the most repulsive woke food and talk the most bullshit and generally be the most dislikeable but SBF really took the biscuit in this regard, and I spent several hours trying to find a way to short anything to do with him, unfortunately with no result. Since the implosion of FTX I have been addicted to following this lurid story and all students of fraud should spend time on this case study of folly, greed and incompetance. It has everything (certainly sex and drugs and maybe even rock and roll) and gives out a great many examples as to the crazy environment that we have been living in for so long.

SUP

Supreme – “a solid trading performance” and “ahead of market expectations”. Really?

‘Fast-moving consumer products’ company Supreme (SUP) has announced results for its half-year ended 30th September 2022 including emphasising “pleasingly, the business has delivered a solid trading performance in the period” and that the full-year is “now expected to be ahead of market expectations”. So what of a current share price response down towards 100p?

BOO
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Boohoo’s Mahmud Kamani – mad, bad or a genius?

I refer, of course, to news today that  that Boohoo (BOO) has increased its shareholding in Revolution Beauty (REVB) from just under 13% to 26.4654% even though Revolution Beauty shares are suspended as it still cannot bottom out the size of a fraudulent accounting black hole. So is boss Mahmud Kamani mad or a genius?

TON

Titon Holdings – “Trading Update” again, profit (lack of) warning again

Previously writing on ventilation systems and window and door hardware company Titon Holdings (TON), in July with the shares down to 75p I noted my prior caution justified; trading warning – concluding that uncertainties saw me continue to avoid. The shares last closed at 81p... but today another trading update.

PFC
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Petrofac – Sorry Gary Newman but I fear the great Waseem Shakoor is right: look at the bond price

Gary Newman last tipped Petrofac (PFC) on this website on 6 September HERE at 112p. He can write what he wish, but I fear he is wrong – this is a stock for shorting -  and note comments from the great Waseem Shakoor today.

VRS
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Versarien pre bailout placing ramp part 1 – loveable scouse oaf Craig Phillips from BB 2001 and the video

There has been a concerted attempt by Versarien (VRS) to ramp its shares in recent weeks. The reason, though it has yet to ‘fess to it is that it will be out of cash, burning cash and having stiff debts to support by Christmas. It clearly needs to do an emergency placing fast, hence the ramping.  Let’s start with the just released video below starring lovable scouse oaf Craig Phillips, the winner of Big Brother 2001.

EZJ
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Despite easyJet making me grumpy earlier this year, I am still holding onto the shares

As I discussed just over a month ago, I have fallen out of love a bit with easyJet (EZJ) as a customer. However, I do still own some shares, which means I was all over today’s full year to the end of September 2022 numbers like a rash.

BARK
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Barkby – Trading And Strategy Update: Is It Good News? Er…..

AIM-listed Barkby has released a trading and strategy update. It reads quite well, but I wonder if beneath the surface there might be a nasty shock for shareholders on the way.

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