Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending 16 July 2022
These are the most-read articles and most listened-to Bearcasts of the week. The most read non-Tom article is I think Kistos is taking the piss with its offer for Serica and expect shareholders to reject it by Gary Newman at number two or number five if you include Bearcasts.
- By Darren Atwater |
- 17 July 2022, 07:18 |
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OptiBiotix Health – BUY, 50p first stop, 100p by next year
Writing on OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) last month with the shares at 21p to buy, we noted clear news flow potential to spark the shares. We drank our own medicine with Tom Winnifrith buying more shares in the market at c22p. They are now further up at 37p on the back of a “Joint development agreement signed with Firmenich”-titled announcement.
- By Hotstockrockets |
- 16 July 2022, 18:51 |
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Richard Jennings vs Ironveld, the Align boss hits back at bullying toff value destroyers and suggests he may sue
It is quite clear that Ironveld Resources (IRON) is a serially underperforming AIM dog and that its management should be held to account. Since Giles Clarke took the helm its shares have plunged from 4.5p to just 0.35p. But Giles is a top fellow who went to Rugby School, then Oxford and was head of the England and Wales Cricket Board so we are not allowed to say what a crap job he is doing and how he should never be allowed to run an AIM company again. Clarke is a jolly fine fellow and anyone who says otherwise is just a smelly oik. Step forward professional northerner Richard Jennings.
- By Tom Winnifrith, the Sheriff of AIM |
- 16 July 2022, 18:08 |
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Tom Winnifrith Photo Bearcast: Fevertree and its endangered dividend & bashing the City establishment
I start with some advice from Greece on coping with the heatwave. Then it is Jennings versus Ironveld (IRON) and why - in this case - you really should back Jennings. Finally re Fevertree (FEVR) what do you make of the photo below? And why its dividend should be chopped. And why it is still a short whatever PL suggests.
- By Tom Winnifrith |
- 16 July 2022, 15:52 |
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Scirocco – More On That Stinking Ruvuma Disposal Deal
I note that AIM-listed Scirocco Energy (SCIR) now sees its market capitalisation (according to ADVFN) down at just £2.3 million, having deteriorated from £3 million a few days ago. The reason appears to be two after-hours no-one-is-watching o’clock RNS announcements which were released at 6:10 pm on Tuesday and 5:09pm last night. They concern the Ruvuma disposal, which some shareholders are not very happy with.
- By Nigel Somerville, the Deputy Sheriff of AIM |
- 16 July 2022, 13:15 |
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Already 1/3 sold out: Shares, bears, croquet contest, salmon fishing, more shares, drink and pizza at Tom Winnifrith's farm - Sharestock, 10 September
Normally, 70% of seats are sold in the seven weeks before a show. Here we are, more than ten weeks from ShareStock, and one third of the seats are already booked out. Fingers crossed, it will be sold out by September 10 - and why not, as we have a great day on offer. Shares, prize croquet, salmon fishing, all-day booze and home-produced food: what better way to spend a Saturday?
- By Tom Winnifrith |
- 16 July 2022, 13:12 |
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The View From The Montana Log-Cabin As Gold Slips Further And Inflation Still Rises
Gold finished the week at $1709, down (again) on last week’s $1743. This all seems a bit odd, as inflation figures from the US showed it was still on the rise and Gold is supposed to be the great inflation hedge. If only it were that simple.
- By Nigel Somerville |
- 16 July 2022, 13:11 |
Oil that's Required Is a Little Patience for Shell and BP Share Holders.
Hello Share People. Though I’ve gone largely to cash, fearing a recession, I still have a toe hold in some companies. A few of those are in the oil game, because it’s hard to see how they might fail given prevailing circumstances. It’s this old punter’s view that big oilers are still undervalued. Let’s look at the evidence.
- By Malcolm Stacey |
- 16 July 2022, 13:06 |
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: falling for a £49 covid test scam
Yes I fell for this scam sponsiored by the British and French Governments ands I mention this in the context of folks getting, wrongly, excited by news today from Novacyt (NCYT). Make no mistake: the covid testing bubble is over. I discuss Fevertree (FEVR) where I predict two more profits warnings - stay short. And then on the vicious attack on Richard Jennings by Ironveld (IRON). Jennings is a litigious fellow so may well be talking to his lawyer. I wouldn't bother myself but cant think that Ironveld's board is doing itself any favours with such antics.
- By Tom Winnifrith |
- 15 July 2022, 17:27 |
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Allergy Therapeutics – argues “significant clinical progress”, so why the further share price fall?
Allergy Therapeutics (AGY) has issued a trading update for its year ended 30th June 2022 emphasising “effective cost controls implemented alongside the group's significant clinical progress” and “in 2023, sales are expected to return to their previous near double-digit growth levels”. So what of a current share price response to 17p, approaching 7% lower?
- By Steve Moore |
- 15 July 2022, 17:05 |
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Scirocco – More On That Greenan Deal
I have been pulled up over my article covering the deal whereby AIM-listed Scirocco Energy (SCIR) ponied up £1.2 million as a loan to Energy Acquisitions Group (EAG), which EAG then used to acquire Greenan Generation Limited (GGL). The salient point for me is that all the capital seems to have come from Scirocco, but it effectively only gets half of GGL.
- By Nigel Somerville, the Deputy Sheriff of AIM |
- 15 July 2022, 16:27 |
Crossword Cybersecurity – ‘strengthening working capital on the back of a positive H1’. Really?
Crossword Cybersecurity (CCS) states that it “is pleased to confirm the completion of additional convertible loan notes on the same terms as the extension of the convertible loan notes already in issue… £550,000 of additional loan notes”. So what’s the trading position here compared to a current 29p share price, £21.9 million market cap?
- By Steve Moore |
- 15 July 2022, 15:15 |
DP Poland – emphasises “strong sales performance”, but what about the bottom-line?
DP Poland (DPP), with the exclusive right to develop, operate and sub-franchise Domino's Pizza stores in Poland, states it is “delighted to see the strong sales performance achieved in the first half of 2022 continuing” and is “confident we will emulate the success of the brand in other markets”. But what’s the detail?
- By Steve Moore |
- 15 July 2022, 12:04 |
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Busy Friday! From comedy at Aston Martin Lagonda to continued faith in Burberry
There is lots going on this Friday during the first week of the quarterly global earnings season. I had to smile at the news of Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) announcing a ‘mere’ £653 million proposed equity capital raise with “the proceeds used to meaningfully de-leverage the balance sheet”, aided by “leading global investment fund PIF”. And just in case you don’t know the “Public Investment Fund (PIF) is the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia”... Once again, more money from the rich for a business which only sells to the rich (and which has still gone bust loads of times).
- By Chris Bailey |
- 15 July 2022, 11:05 |
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Cenkos & Bidstack: Dishonesty or incompetence?
Broker Cenkos released a note on Bidstack (BIDS) on Tuesday which is terribly bullish and enthusiastic and appears to have encouraged the morons. But the research is either dishonest or incompetent. I suggest the former.
- By Tom Winnifrith, the Sheriff of AIM |
- 15 July 2022, 10:46 |
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Fevertree warns – told y’all, worse still to come
Lucian Miers and I both warned that this would happen as, I think, did the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl. Chris Bailey is a non-drinker and disagreed. Never trust a non-drinker, as my pal Evil Knievil (not a non-drinker) would say. On 19 May Fevertree (FEVR) told us to expect flat FY EBITDA of £63 million to £66 million. Today, less than two months later…..
- By Tom Winnifrith |
- 15 July 2022, 10:28 |
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Supply@Me Capital – is CEO Alessandro Zamboni about to be forced to reveal a big share dump TWO YEARS AGO?
On 29 July 2020 the fraud Supply@ME Capital (SYME) announced a loan transaction involving 5.89 billion shares as follows in an RNS:
- By Tom Winnifrith |
- 15 July 2022, 10:05 |
Nosh-on-the-Go King Is Set to Soar After Earlier Lockdown Hit
Hello Share Tweakers. We’ve all noticed shops closing in our town centres. The new businesses springing up seem mostly to be in the catering trade. Coffee shops and cafes are the main invaders, restaurants are not. Many posher eating places never recovered from lockdowns and stay shut and one high street catering venture that appeals to me in these difficult days is Greggs (GRG).
- By Malcolm Stacey |
- 15 July 2022, 09:08 |
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Winnifrith Vindicated yet again, Petropavlovsk – The fat Lady to sing on Monday
Petropavlovsk (POG) was obviously aware that I was driving across France on Tuesday and distracted by the most stressful of episodes, as it took the chance to suspend its shares and say that it would appoint administrators while I was distracted. Today it said that the hearing in the Courts to settle the administration is scheduled for Monday. As the fat lady warms up there are three key takeaways from someone who predicted this on March 4 HERE.
- By Tom Winnifrith |
- 14 July 2022, 17:27 |
IQGeo – is “in line with expectations” sufficient for the current valuation?
Previously writing on geospatial software group IQGeo (IQG), last week with the shares sparking higher towards 140p I questioned ‘emphasises “important project” selection, but how do the financials look now?’. So what of now a trading update?
- By Steve Moore |
- 14 July 2022, 17:17 |