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Latest News

Gold
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The View From The Montana Log-Cabin As Gold Tries To Make A Break

Gold ended last week at $1836, up nicely from the prior week’s close at $1818 and, perhaps importantly, just above resistance at $1830-1835. Silver also did well, closing at $24.32 – close to a two month high. Meanwhile, for stockmarket bears, markets were selling off. The only ingredient now needed for Jordan Roy-Byrne’s (ahem….) golden scenario now is a Fed rate hike.

EMAN

Everyman Media and its Posh Cinemas Surprise the City By Filling Seats Despite the Plague

Hello Share Followers. My instinct when asked to consider buying shares in cinema is to say no thanks. Not with the Covid lockdowns and the residual view by some folks that leaving the front door is to risk catching it. But the latest trading update for Everyman Media Group (EMAN) is encouraging.

Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Cake Box is NOT another Patisserie Holdings but it looks a stonking red flag & macro short

I start with a few words on Oxford Cannabinoid (OCTP). I have not said fill your boots nor should you. The issue here is management allegedly lining their own pockets ahead of corporate action which they know all about. One should not buy shares in such companies. Then I reflect on an excellent piece by Maynard Paton on Cake Box (CBOX) which you can read HERE. I comment on some of the excellent points he makes but add in half a dozen of my own, notably comparing boasted net cash and net interest costs but also the shameful CEO pump and dump and the macro headwind given the demographic of its end user base. This is probably not another Patisserie Valerie but at 320p it is a stonking short.

ESNT

Essentra – shares further ahead on trading update, further corporate excitement potential?

Components and (currently) Packaging and Filters company Essentra (ESNT) has announced fourth quarter like-for-like revenue up 12.7% on the prior year (+11.1% v. Q4 2019) and that it “expects to deliver FY 2021 operating profit in the range of analysts’ forecasts” (£80.7m-£84.3m) and “order book trends remain strong”. The shares are now 340p, a just shy of £1 billion market cap, but is there still further to go here?

SWG

Buy Shearwater Group

Shares in cyber security group Shearwater (SWG) are down from more than 200p reached early last summer and more than 140p as recently as November to currently 99p to buy. There is clear trading expectations risk, but also reasons for optimism that the shares will spark again and they now look a risk/reward Buy.

AAU

Ariana Resources – 2021 production update, “fantastic” 2022 ahead?

Ariana Resources (AAU) has announced 2021 production from the 23.5%-owned Kiziltepe mine in Turkey and “with value upside evident across all arms of the company, 2022 is set to be a fantastic year for Ariana”. Well maybe. A lot clearly depends on the gold price but we do think that a) 2022 will be a good year and b) that is not discounted in the curremt share price.

SEED

Seed Innovations – investee company updates, Buy

Seed Innovations (SEED) has announced a further investee company update, helping the shares up to a current 7.4p to buy. So what’s the latest news?

Quiz
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The ShareProphets Sunday Pub Quiz #125

Grab a cup of tea, sit back, and test your knowledge against the other ShareProphets members. Write your score in the comments, there are no prizes, and most important of all – no Googling!

Professor
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Sunday Long Reads: Agents of Doom, Bitcoin Manipulation, Undercover Married Cops, Centipede, Captain Cook

Here are five long reads that have nothing to do with shares. Put the kettle on, find a comfy chair. You have the time, don’t you? 
 

Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending 22 January 2022

These are the most-read articles and most listened-to Bearcasts of the week. The most-read non-Tom, non tip-of-the-year is Is it time for me to sell my Barclays shares by Chris Bailey.

Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Scottish Power really are shysters and the 2 name changes that threw me at Advance Energy

I start with the dire customer service from Scottish Power which is scamming me here at the Welsh Hovel. What to do? Then I am disppointed that none of you could Sherlock ADM Energy (ADME) and its latest fake sheikh. Then, sorry Gary, back to Advance Energy (ADV) and its history with this fine website as Andalas and as CEB Resources, the pumpers (Zak Mir, flip flop Ben Turney, and Justin the Clown), the villains (Dave Whitby) and the lessons. Finally I explain why those predicting financial armageddon are, all of a sudden so plausible, but are wrong, or at least are over-egging the pudding.

CMCX
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CMC Markets should be starting to benefit from increased volatility and is too cheap - recovery buy

I always find it hard to buy shares where I see fundamental good value and where I am intending to hold them as an actual investment rather than just a short term trade based on momentum.

RRR

Red Rock Resources – further judgement in favour in DRC, but what next?

Red Rock Resources (RRR) has announced the Commercial Court of Lubumbashi has issued an executory judgment in its favour for joint venture partner VUP SA to pay it $2 million damages with costs, with there already another judgment for $2.505 million. What of a little changed share price of 0.625p though, albeit at least up from heading towards 0.40p before Christmas?

Bitcoin

Video: Gold Will Outperform Bitcoin and Stocks this Year

Another one to annoy our in-house bitcoin loon Jimbo although I sense that this particular sinner is somewhat repenting. 

HAT
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H and T Group – 2021 update, scope for further progress

October share tip at a 279p offer price, UK pawnbroking group H&T (HAT) has announced that “trading performance during the second half remained consistently strong and the group expects to report profit before tax for the full year within the range of current market expectations”.

ODX
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Omega Diagnostics manifestly deceives investors as CEO walks the plank

If the share price of a company is in sharp decline and the CEO walks it is for one of two reasons and neither is good. It could be that the CEO knows that things can only get worse and wants to put as much clear blue water between him and a ship that is bound to sink. Or the rest of the board know that stakeholders will only do what is needed to try to keep the ship afloat if there is a change of captain, it is an admission that the ship is in deep trouble. Either way it is always a sign to sell or short or add to shorts and that brings me to Omega Diagnostics (ODX) where I have been a long term bear.

Collapsing-Reactor

Video: an epic risk moment in history, shares to crash 90%

Asset manager, Egon von Greyerz does not mince his words. There is no fence sitting here. He argues that systemic risks are increasing but the general investor does not appear concerned. No one knows the size of the derivatives markets but it’s likely in the quadrillions. Egon points out that sovereign bonds make no sense for investors since the only way they can be paid back is with more money printing, hence they are extremely poor investments especially when you consider the dismal returns.

Roulette

Confessions of a Silly Lottery Player and a Warning to Others.

Hello Share Cravers. You may be one of those souls who try the handle several times before they’re happy they’ve locked the front door. My own obsessive behaviour is the unreasonable way I play the national lottery. This is a kind of investment (ha ha). So it’s appropriate to discuss it on this dazzling website.

Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast – a Fake Sheikh hunting competition for detectives among you

I start with a weather report from Chez Atwater, refer to this article, and ask any cultists to explain. Then there is a fake sheikh (or not)-hunting competition regarding ADM Energy (ADM). Finally I ask if we bears really will have a long promised tea party in 2022 as slimmer of the month Lucian Miers suggests. Heck, he is even thinking of shorting Tesla again.

WRKS

TheWorks.co.uk plc – interims, how will it trade with cost pressures in a more normalised consumer environment?

Arts, crafts, stationery, toys and books retailer TheWorks (WRKS) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st October 2021 and an update on subsequent trading which currently has helped the shares up by more than 14% to 64.6p, a £40.4 million market cap. So what’s the story?…

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