The development of heavy oil in the UK goes back further than most people realise. All the way back to 1787, in fact. That was when miners struck a spring of natural bitumen while digging a tunnel for the Coalport Canal; indeed, with a little imagination the “Tar Tunnel” might be described as the UK’s first horizontal production well.
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following details the most shorted shares (by net short position %) and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since a previous analysis HERE.
In today's podcast I start with oil stocks and oil prices and discuss why I would not touch any of them with a bargepole - particular mentions of Tangiers Petroleum, Falklands Oil & gas, Rockhopper, Igas, Northern Petroleum and the rampers of Mosman Oil & Gas. I then move onto Quindell discussing whether my 0p target is too low.
So this is it for the Jim Ellerton Benevolent Fund (SER). After one of the most inevitable and agonising deaths in AIM’s history, at 4pm on Friday, Sefton’s directors finally admitted the game is basically up. The proposed “refinancing” will simply prolong shareholders’ agony for a few more months. The sale of Tapia will deny Sefton its only revenue stream and only the most fanatical Seftonologists believe that the company’s Kansas “assets” can be its saviour. Not ones for reading the fine print of RNSs, this hapless bunch has also missed one important little detail. A vote in favour of the revised Hawker deal will see Ellerton keep his pension.
Speciality pharmaceutical company, Alliance Pharma (APH) has updated that 2014 “pre-tax profits are expected to be in line with current market expectations” on turnover of £43.5 million and that “we continue to evaluate a number of acquisition opportunities”.
Andrew Monk, the CEO of broker VSA Resources has this morning suggested that Igas (IGAS) is both a potential bid target but also already in default on its bonds, methinks he overeggs a bit on both counts.
Hello Share Bashers. It's rather nice being the only bull around this strapping website. Because when the Footsie rockets through the old 6,900 barrier later this year, I won't have to share the credit for being right with anyone.
Get the first ShareProphets Pocket Guide ebook, EIS - Buying shares with numerous tax breaks. Want to cut your income tax bill in 2015, get loss relief if your AIM listed shares go down, pay no CGT, avoid IHT - EIS could be the way and this book explains how
Sometimes we are lucky enough to come across an RNS, which is so outrageous it is just plain funny. This morning, the soon to be renamed Tangiers Petroleum (TPET) issued a corker. According to its “recently completed Independent Resource Report”, the company’s Icewine Project, in Alaska, could contain a potential gross mean unrisked 8billion barrels of oil in place. Better yet, Icewine has an estimated 41% “probability of geologic success”. For little old Tangiers, up 45.8% to 0.88p and valued at £4million, this sounds too good to be true. The reason for this is quite simple. It is because it almost certainly is.
Shares in provider of an online platform for the provision of services, blur Group (BLUR) have now declined to sub 50p - having been circa 730p a year ago. The following reviews post a trading update last week and now an update from Edison Investment Research.
Robert Tyerman vs Lucian Miers: the Sirius debate. I explain on whose side I am on. In this podcast I also cover Webis which I forgot to mention earlier. Notwithstanding the fact that my old friend Jim Mellon is a major shareholder I have a few words to say. The meat of this podcast is the disgrace that is Directors talk. This website should be exposed and boycotted and I explain why. The Ben Turney piece i refer to in this section is HERE
I lasted shorted shares in Sirius Minerals (SXX) in August 2013 when the company, desperate for cash, announced a death spiral equity finance loan from an unnamed New York based firm. This was misleadingly dressed up as an investment, with CEO Chris Fraser even crowing that it demonstrated “confidence in the on going development of the York Potash project” when anyone familiar with death spiral financing knows that it did no such thing and such arrangements invariably cause steep declines in the share price.
West African gold play Aureus Mining (AUE) reckons the latest fall in oil prices could shave some $30 (£20) off estimated all-in cash costs at its flagship New Liberty gold project in Liberia, where the AIM-quoted company expects the first gold pour in May, with fill capacity to be reached in July. That would take costs to $820 an ounce for New Liberty, if oil’s present weakness persists, against a current gold price of $1,276.95c an ounce and would provide a helpful boost to returns from the project, which Aureus expects to produce at a rate of 119,000 oz. a year by open pit mining for the first six years of an anticipated mine life of eight years.
In today's podcast I look at Sorbic International another AIM Casino China stock where you just could not make it up and I ask questions of its hapless Nomad Finn Cap. I also look at Sefton and at Beale and what that says about takeovers. En passant I mention the POS that is Touchstone Gold.
Companies involved in the media sector are notoriously hard to value, as for a lot of them it is more about growth and potential than current revenue streams. That has been the case even with huge companies such as Facebook where its value and balance sheet at the time it was listed certainly didn’t match up!
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following details the 20 highest single net short positions and the changes (red if short increased, green if reduced) since a previous analysis HERE.
Like most of my family, Malcolm Stacey has a range of daft lefty opinions which see us disagree on a number of matters. He is a top bloke and we agree on a lot (busting financial fraud, immigration, etc), but I still have images of him sitting in Wales kneeling in prayer to the Money Tree and that brings us to Impellam (IPEL) which he wrote about on Saturday and where we half agree.
We are facing deflation in the UK. At the moment, the rate of inflation keeps on kicking in below the Bank of England's target of 2%. It's now not expected to exceed that barrier until 2017 at the earliest.
A number of documents have surfaced relating to the smear campaign orchestrated by the former managers of Sefton Resources (SER) to discredit myself and Brokerman Dan as it pursued (and lost) a libel action against us.
An article on Rockhopper (RKH) implying delays in drilling in the Falklands came out in the Financial Times last week. It is wrong. I am sure that CEO Tony Durrant never thought his thoughts would be garbled by journalists in this way.
Sadly illness is still rife in this house so for this Thursday it is no coffee for me with the fit young mums. At least I shall be in Greece in five days time and that must be restorative to my health. In this podcast I start by looking back on UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) and its death spiral. I explain exactly how it works. Then a few further thoughts on Falanx (FLX) and why I am not selling our shares at this price. Then I look at Alexander Mining (AXM), another mega spoof from Clem Chambers, this time at ADVFN (AFN), at "Nomates" disaster RM2 (RM2)Fishing Republic (FISH) - a good zero bet - and at Regal Petroleum (RPT) which seems to be in a spot of bother in Ukraine.
In this bonus podcast prompted by recent events at African Potash (AFPO) and ADVFN (AFN) I look back on other bouts of market insanity. There was the radio boom of the 1920s and the dot com boom of 1999-2001 but is the blockchain bubble at 1999, 2000 or 2001? Among the companies also mentioned are On Line (ONL), Vela (VELA), Milestone Group (MSG) and Coinsilium (COIN), where we have a small holding. Madness, my friends, is in the air.
The video is self explanatory and the UKOG ramper in chief does not mince his words. Enjoy.
Shares in Angus Energy (ANGS) have plunged by 36% to 17.125p today after news from the Lidsey Field which cannot be described as anything other than disappointing. Hope meets reality. At some stage the same process will see shares in UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) crash. Let's start with Angus.
Last month the Jupiter Merlin group which, at one point, had £942 million invested in funds managed by Neil "nomates" Woodford announced that it was pulling out its last monies. Now another big investment group has given up on Britain's most self important fund manager. Aviva, one of the largest savings providers in Britain, has had enough.
You do not have to be active in the stock markets for long to realise that FTSE-100 companies have the propensity to deliver incompetence and intrigue just like their smaller cap brethren. Today's shocker is centred on automotive and aerospace sector giant GKN (GKN) which has made a bit of a habit over the last few months in bogging things up.
The RNS from Mkango Resources (MKA) reads well. It has done a deal which sees Noble Group farm in to earn a 49% stake in the company's rare earth's project at Songwe by spending £12 million on the ground. But there is a bit of a caveat that bulls opt to ignore.
Ramptastic - if not entirely transparent RNS releases, Bulletin Board and twitter ramping by all the usual suspects with ludicrous price targets, no cash. What on earth did you expect was going to happen next at perennial uber dog Mayan Energy (MYN)? As those who were paying up to 0.9p at peak ramp just a few days ago contemplate how they were used to get away a £2 million placing at 0.6p they should have very serious questions for London's worst Nomad Roland Fatty Cornish who has signed off in recent ramptastic releases. Enter the fray Zac "The Knife" Phillips of SP Angel, the City's top oil analyst who has 14 questions that a Nomad with a shred of integrity and competence would have asked before allowing the releases. Over to The Knife who writes:
Whilst many private investors go chasing rainbows and hoping for one of their oil and gas exploration plays to hit black gold, there are actually a number of AIM listed outfits which are already producing, yet don’t seem to be as popular as they are unlikely to generate large share price rises overnight.
I start this podcast with a look at Carillion (CLLN) where I wonder if Steve's damning verdict HERE is just a bit too generous. The boy is too much of a nice guy for his own good. Then it is onto the FRC which will be writing to 40 AIM and Small Cap companies ahead of them publishing FY numbers. I have a few ideas who and on what areas. The FRC are of course the UK's best regulator if only for recognising the work of the UK's top investigative financial journalist. Then I look at Angus Energy (ANGS) and finally there is a detailed discussion on MySquar (FRAUD)
This is the time of year when I ask you to consider making a small donation to ensure that folks far less fortunate than we all are enjoy some real joy this Christmas. Woodlarks is a charity with whom I have worked for years. It provides a one-off service: full holiday acccomodation for those so severely disabled that they would otherwise not get such a break.
Even supporters of BCA Marketplace (BCA) concede that it is massively operationally and financially geared to sales volumes in the second hand car market. And thus yesterday came the data that bulls such as Neil "Nomates" Woodford must have been dreading.
Carillion (CLLN) topped the top shorted London-listed shares at the start of 2017 (recent performance update HERE) and remained so in our Autumn update HERE. Having commenced the year above 235p, the shares had slid below 200p before a July profit warning, business review and Chief Executive “stepped down” announcement. They are currently down from above 40p to below 30p today on the back of an “Update” announcement…
Drowning in debt and red flags POS Green Dragon (GDG) admitted on 30 October that it was in talks with bondholders to push out repayment terms and it promised that those talks - which had been undserway for a while - would be concluded by 20 November. Well maybe not.
The ongoing farce at BOS Global (BOS) continued with an out-of-hours Company Update yesterday which may not be good news for shareholders but it is certainly providing a bit of light relief for the neutral as a high stakes game of chicken seems to be ongoing where the “winner” gets to run a loss-making, close to insolvent, horror show of a business.
I know sweet FA about GCM Resources (GCM) so you are on your own on this one. It has just announced an Underwritten Fundraise, to raise up to £2 million at a subscription price of 34.4p per Ordinary Share - via Primary Bid. This represents a discount of 20% to the closing mid price on Friday, 17 November, 2017. You can sign up and take part, if you wish, HERE
Nanoco Group (NANO) “is pleased to announce its preliminary results for the year ended 31 July 2017” and Chairman Dr Christopher Richards states “it is a pleasure to introduce Nanoco's results for the year to 31 July 2017”. Should be encouraging then…
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