Medical matters are on my mind as I have the Norovirus. But it takes more than that to stop me writing about companies but naturally my mind turns to drugs. Well I was a young man in the sixties – the 1960s not the 1860s before you ask. Talking of ancient history, the market long ago abandoned the assumption that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) would automatically build a pathway for shareholders to a starlight future of endless profits and earnings growth, by simply spending 15% of its sales revenue on R&D, and turning that into an approved blockbuster therapy every few years. In truth, costs rose and progress became more difficult – the return on R&D capital was not acceptable.
On January 10th IQE (IQE), the Wales based supplier of advanced semiconductor wafer products and services IQE announced a $75 million ($60 million on completion and $15 million payable on the third anniversary of completion) acquisition, a £16.5 million placing of new shares with institutional investors at 29p each and a 2012 trading statement. Having tipped the stock at a 28.75p on this very website on November 19th -I am feeling rather smug
FTSE-250 constituent Pace plc (PIC), a developer of technologies and products for PayTV and broadband, has today announced that, following a strong second half year performance, its “full year results are anticipated to be ahead of the board's previous guidance”. The shares have responded by trading approaching 5% higher at 202p, capitalising the company at £625 million. The following reviews the investment proposition here…
Yesterday Greggs (GRG), the leading bakery retailer in the UK with more than 1,670 retail outlets, released an update on trading for the Christmas and New Year period (5 weeks ended 5th January 2013) and for its 2012 financial year (52 weeks ended 29th December 2012). This included that the company anticipates that it “will report full year results broadly in line with expectations when we make our preliminary announcement on 13 March 2013”. However there were caveats and with concerns about the UK economy and consumer spending – particularly on the high street, the following is my take on the current outlook for this company…
Centamin (CEY), the London and Canada listed gold miner operating in Egypt, has announced record quarterly gold production of 85,543 ounces for the period closing December 31st 2012 – taking full year production to 262,958 ounces, a 30% increase on 2011 and above guidance of 250,000 ounces. The shares have responded by currently trading just over 5.5p higher at 49.75p, capitalising the company at just under £550 million. The company emphasises the numbers as “particularly pleasing given the challenges faced during the year” but the announcement also makes clear that challenges remain. The following details my current view…
Domino's Pizza (DOM), now a FTSE-250 constituent, has been a stellar recommendation from me historically during my 12 years at t1ps.com, but I am currently nervous about the UK economy and consumer spending outlook. Does that dim my faith?
AIM-listed blinkx plc (BLNX), which describes itself as “the world’s largest and most advanced video search engine” , has today announced a further partnership deal – this with KoldCast TV, an international television network of original entertainment programming.
AIM listed Funeral homes group Dignity (DTY) is one of those companies whose shares always look expensive, but then always seem to head higher. You always kick yourself for not buying the stock, after all we have an ageing population and so death ( like taxes) looks a sort of one way bet. As it happens, that is not the case. At a share price of £11.02 the company is now capitalised at £603 million. Is this justifiable?
Normally I would consider that a company that will be loss making unto, calendar 2014 but which at 493p trades on a 2014 PE of 103 would be a slam dunk sell. Wandisco (WAND) is just that company and it cannot be described as a tradition Benjamin Graham style value investment. But before Lucien Miers thinks about shorting the stock, I suggest that he reads on. This is not as simple as it sounds.
Ruspetro (RPO) has already served up a profits warning in 2013 and for its timing as much as its substance it is already in line to win an award for the biggest shock of the year. The shares closed Friday at 83.5p, valuing the firm at £278.4 million but given that the release went live at 6.30 PM the stock will be hit hard on Monday. At what point should you buy if at all?
Shares in AIM and Canada-listed Xcite Energy (XEL) hit 395p in January 2011 as it reported on a successful “transformational well” drill on its flagship Bentley oil field in the UK Northern North Sea, 160 kilometres east of the Shetland Isles. However, market disappointment at a 10th May 2011 reserves report on Bentley saw the shares fall from 316.5p to close at 110p just seven weeks later. They hit a low of 67.5p in July 2012 and currently trade at 92.75p – capitalising the company at approaching £270 million. The stock is a darling of the Bulletin Boards. But is it good value?
Because the yield is too low for a bank (in historic terms), Barclays Bank (BARC)shares are clearly viewed by the market as a ‘momentum’ stock; the elementary investment principle being, that because the shares are going up, buy some more?
On 20th December fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) announced that “following the recently-announced export of gold and resumption of fuel supply, operations have now resumed at Sukari.” The market read this as meaning that output and cashflow generation was now back on track. The shares have thus rallied to 39.3p. But this morning, top broker Fox Davies has published a research report stating “We also understand that gold exports have again been suspended.” Well have they? A RNS statement from Centamin is called for pretty urgently. This is a critical matter but the answer does not matter but the episode reminds us of why the shares are a sell.
Suddenly the price of Iron ore has picked up, spurred by a recovery in Chinese Demand. Iron ore stocks have responded with a number showing sharp gains in the past month. Among the winners is Anglesey Mining (AYM) but also Bellzone (BZM) which has assisted its cause with news on both of its projects in the West African country of Guinea. The Bellzone share price has pushed ahead by 3p to 16p over the past month valuing the company at £117 million but some brokers reckon that it could still double from mere. There is a bear case as well as a bull case.
I promised you something for everyone in my 7 tips of the year 2013 and so I now bring you a profitable, cash generative gold producer with exploration upside. As a relatively low cost producer it will keep throwing off cash if the gold price does noting or even falls. At the current gold price it looks very cheap but if, as I expect, gold moves ahead sharply it is very cheap indeed. My sixth tip of the year 2013 is Archipelago Resources (AR.) which, at 60p, is capitalised at £345 million. This is a stock where at $2000 gold you will double your money within a year.
I promised you something for everyone in my 7 tips of the year 2013 and so I now bring you a profitable, very cash generative growth stock with strong defensive qualities and great ( largely contracted) earnings visibility which is very much a growth play. It is run by a bird who is the smartest cookie in tech and has a great track record over many years and although the shares may look highly rated they, in my opinion offer 54% upside on a one year view.
In the vein of providing something for everybody, my second tip of the year is a gold company, AIM listed Kryso Resources (KYS) at 32p. Modestly, I should point out that I first recommended this stock at 13.25p on t1ps.com (my former website for 12 years before I started my new Nifty Fifty venture) in 2007 and so those who took that advice are already well ahead. But the best is yet to come. Kryso is not yet a producer but by next Christmas it will be
Over the next seven days I shall serve up seven tips for 2013. There should be something for everyone. In assembling this magnificent seven I start with company fundamentals and price. But I also take into account my macro-economic assumptions for the next 12 months. And, I am sorry to say, that I am not terribly cheery. I do not see UK GDP growing rapidly. Credit will be hard to obtain and consumer spending will not be strong. As such there is some merit in starting with a solid defensive play and that brings me to fully listed S&U (SUS) at a share price of 915.25p.
I have always been a fan of Greggs (GRG) the UK’s largest retailer of sausage rolls, puff pastries and all the other sort of comfort food that helped me to become a diabetic. The company has always had net cash, benefitted from operational gearing and delivered solid year on year earnings increases. But in 2012 things appeared to start to go slightly awry and the share price has fallen from 550p at the start of the year to 458p. As recently as 7th November I foreasaw a bounce ( at 470p) but I have been reviewing my assumptions about UK consumer behaviour. As such I apologise for that bad call, a volte face is on the way.I would like to buy this stock as fundamentally it is a good business serving six million Britons each week. But ....
I have tipped fully listed ( and JSE listed) Aquarius Platinum (AQP) three times in my life: once at Red Hot Penny Shares and twice at t1ps.com. Each time we have sold and booked handsome gains but the past 12 months have seen the company have to weather a series of plagues reminiscent of a biblical torment.
Nine share tips, giving in a tax-efficient way, don't count Trump out. And much more...
Is this photo fake? I believe that it is genuine but do not know for sure. But it is starting to do the rounds on the interweb and appears to show drilling equipment being removed from the UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) site at Broadford Bridge. I would assume it is moving, with the goalposts, to Horse Hill.
It is one month exactly to UK Investor Show. Book your seats today! In today's podcast I comment on retail generally but also on any company that says that it is talking to its banks and that they are "supportive." I look in detail at yesterday's results from Eden Research (EDEN). Would you Adam & Eve it? There's lots of snakes in that garden. I look at the request for an EGM of Pathfinder Minerals (PFP) to out useless Nick Trew and NED Toff Tory Sir Henry Bellingham MP of 3DM infamy. Sir Henry I have a score to settle and I have a warning for you about what I plan. If you like bearcasts then remember that at UK Investor on April 21 one of many highlights will be a live bearcast with myself and Paul Scott. Make sure you book a free ticket HERE using the promotional code WINNIFRITH
At 10.38 AM today I published a photo showing that UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) was clearly stopping drilling at Broadford Bridge. The company should have issued an RNS this morning to say this was happening but what does Lyin' Steve Sanderson care about timely disclosure of price sensitive information?
My son Joshua has stumbled across this shocking video which he tells me is the training video that Steve Sanderson of Uk Oil & Gas (UKOG) uses to help him persuade Bulletin Board Morons to buy into the story at Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill. You can now see from where Lyin' Steve gets his inspiration when it comes to "investor relations" ...enjoy
In days gone by Britain's most conceited fund manager Neil Woodford would have noted how shares in Purplebricks (PURP) have slumped from 440p to c300p in just over three weeks and because Nomates always knows better than the market he would have topped up his holdings. But cash is a tad tight for Neil so he has not done so yet. Maybe he will indeed extend his fund's overdraft and catch another knife? But why are the shares tanking. I suggest you ask RICS.
Two days, two bull articles on IQE (IQE). It has worked and I have been goaded here is is why Malcolm Stacey is talking bollocks. I also reference the fraud Eden Research (EDEN) in this discussion on profit being a matter of opinion and that is why cash matters. I discuss why being a liar is bad news as a CEO ref Mkango Resources (MKA) then tease Andrew Monk and Richard Jennings about Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) - their oil analysis as bad as their Syria analysis on this occasion. Then it is onto Flybe (FLYB) and a detailed discussion of the looming cash crisis and joke valuation at Sound Energy (SOU). I suggest SalvaRx (SALV) run by my good friend Jim Mellon faces a bit of a cash issue. Then I explain why I have cut my UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) target price to just 0.25p making it, at 1.125p, still a slam dunk sell. If you like bearcasts then remember that at UK Investor on April 21 one of many highlights will be a live bearcast with myself and Paul Scott. Make sure you book a free ticket HERE using the promotional code WINNIFRITH
FinnCap likes to tell us that it is one of London's leading Nomad's. Okay lets overlook the Silverdell scandal where it insisted that it did nothing wrong as the company misled investors who then lost all their money but how about Constellation Healthcare? This may be off your radar as this company delisted from AIM in January 2017. But this is a massive scandal.
BCA Marketplace (BCA) was written up as "The Big Short" in my major Autumn dossier at 221p HERE. The shares are now 149p. And the share trading by those connected with it of late stinks of panic suggesting that it is a big a short as ever.
The stock market is of course the best soap opera in the world and today's episode has a distinct retail focus and stars comedy profit warnings, hedge fund bailouts, inevitably the banks and well paid CEOs working very hard...to earn less money. Given the structural shifts online, suppressed consumer spending capabilities and everything else we should not really be that surprised.
Nigel Wray is the man known as Britain's Buffett. He does not punt on resources stocks or high risk biotech wheezes. Instead he makes his millions buying shares in smaller growth companies that make profits, pay dividends and generate cash. That is value investing. He was one of the early investors in Domino's and made tens of millions from Telecom Plus as well. There was property giant Burford, just an £8 million capitalised penny share when he got involved and the list of winners goes on and on
I have always thought that Mercantile Ports & Logistics (MPL) was utterly uninvestable because its statements via RNS were so often untrue and because its chairman Mr Nikhil Gandhi was er... "incredibly colourful" as you can see in my detailed coverage HERE.
Hello, Share Snafflers. So IQE’s (IQE) full-year results are out and once again they fail to electrify the City. This led to a full analysis of the new numbers by a sceptical Uncle Tom. As you’d expect, this investigation is fiercely penetrative. And once again, we owners of the stock are frightened to death by what Tom says.
A 6pm “Update on Progress and Potential Equity Fundraise” announcement from Conviviality (CVR) – uh oh, not usually a time for good news…
Green & Smart (GSH) a biogas company from Malaysia is the sort of dog with fleas that has helped to make the AIM Casino the world's most successful growth market. In second place is the Upper Volta bitcoin exchange. Announcements over the past few days are a scandal but, as ever, no heads will roll.
Previously writing on Utilitywise (UTW) it was as the Woodford-backed dog currently suspended as unable to publish audited accounts, updates. The shares are today trading again after publication at last of results for the company’s year ended 31st July 2017!...
Shares in my Christmas tip-fest suggestion of AIM-listed Bowleven (BLVN) have had a strong run over the last few days, having notched up a high of 37.6p today, against a tip price of 30-31p. It doesn’t sound much, but you can’t sniff at a gain of 21.3% in three months (even if Wildes won’t get out of bed for that).
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