Thursday 24 January 2019 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Arden's message for FinnCrap and a shamed cabal of promoters at Blue Jay: where's the beef?
Hello, Share Tweakers. As someone who regularly sets himself up as an Aunt Sally for Tom’s entertaining bearcasts, I hesitate to commend a home builder to you. But I really think Barratt Developments (BDEV) is worthy of your support. And I base that view on its latest trading report.
Hello, Share Turners. Time was when comedians told jokes about Barratt houses. No longer. There is perky customer satisfaction. And though I have my detractors on this stupendous website, I still think Barratt Developments (BDEV) continues to go places fast. And so I fancy will the share price.
It’s been an eventful few days for UK house builders, with numerous earnings announcements over the last week coinciding with speculation about the future of the Government’s flagship ‘Help to Buy’ subsidy scheme. As a result, we’ve seen daily returns and sentiment levels in the sector fluctuate more than usual over the course of the week. This week’s chart shows abnormal tipster and broker sentiment levels (above/below the 6-week average) towards a portfolio of eleven house builders over the last few days. It also shows returns for the same companies over the same period.
Hello, Share Snackers. The building sector is an interesting one. And previously I've sounded optimism for building firms. After which, we've seen some big increases in share prices.
Hello, Share Chuckers. As I bring you promising companies which may have escaped your notice on office days, there’s time to explain my general methods at the weekend. I can’t expect you to follow my various suggestions unless you know my lines of thought. So, for those of you wise enough to subscribe to this essential website, here goes.
Hello, Share Tanglers. The idea of living on a Barratt housing estate used to fill me with dread, but a lot of folk seem to like its houses nowadays, so I humbly suggest you look at the shares.
Hello Share Samplers. At the risk of annoying some of my gloomier detractors, I continue to argue that house builders are a good investment at the mo. A good friend of mine has just bought a large house in a very swish part of the Smoke. I admit this could be a mistake, as some London house prices are under threat because of Brexit. Fewer rich foreigners will buy here, it is argued, because the capital will no longer be seen as the centre of the financial universe.
Hello Share Freakies. There are those among us who feel that house prices in Britain have peeked. Uncle Tom is one. But I just can’t see it. If one thing drives demand more than anything else it is shortage of supply. And everyone knows that there are simply not enough houses and flats to go around.
I think it was six years ago that we all thought low interest rates would not last. They have, and there is no sign, as far as I can see, that they will rise any time soon. They may even continue to bump along at their present lowly level for another six years.
Hello Share Fans. I hate the expression 'no-brainer', so I won't use it in the context of buying shares in Barratt Developments (BDEV).
Hello Share Totters. When I said a month or two ago that British housebuilding firms were a good investment, I did not realise how right I was going to be.
In February I published a detailed comment on housebuilder and FTSE 250 constituent Barratt Developments (BDEV), stating that a recent upbeat trading statement meant that then upcoming results should contain no nasty surprises but that for a cyclical company seemingly approaching the top of the cycle, the valuation was simply too high. Now, post the results, the following updates my view…
FTSE 250 listed, Housebuilder Barratt Developments (BDEV) issued an upbeat trading statement on 16th January covering the six months to 31st December and there is little doubt that the results out next week will contain no nasty surprises. The company has a forward order book equivalent to around four months of sales and as such there is no reason to expect any great change in trading in the second half. Yet with house prices now on a multiple of average wages seem only once before in living memory ( 2007) and with the normal catalyst for a house price correction ( a rise in interest rates) surely only a matter of time the current rating looks untenable.
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