Friday 20 October 2017 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
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The September 2017 edition of the UK Investor Magazine is now live: Adam Reynolds speaks, seven hot tips, gay penguins, and much more
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) was one of the most hyped up oil companies that I have ever seen during my time in the markets, and although that all ended in tears, I think it could be worth another look now as it has changed a lot since those days.
Say what you like about the army of lunatic small shareholders that have stuck with Gulf Keystone (GKP) through thick and think but they are loyal. Rather like a wife who keep getting beaten up by her drunken husband they just stayed on for more. It was almost touching. And now with the debt for equity complete Gulf is to kick those folks in the bollocks with a share consolidation.
The City's top oil analyst, Zac "the Knife" Phillips of SP Angel has today issued a stark warning on the risks in holding shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP). As it happens I think Zac is being rather too nice on this occassion, he misses a trick. First to Zac, with the shares now trading at 2.23p, but, he warns, worth as little as 0.65p. "The Knife" writes:
On Thursday, as expected, the bond holders in Gulf Keystone (GKP) agreed to the restructuring which will give them 85.5% of the company. All that remains is for the scheme to be sanctioned in court next Friday, a formality. Within five working days of that date just shy of 20 billion shares will be dispatched to noteholders.
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) could be toast by Friday but I think that incredibly unlikely. That they will crash is a racing cert after today's news. Gulf tells us that the owners of 82% of each of the two classes of bonds have both agreed to support the debt for equity swap. It needed just 75% support so that is in the bag. Next up..the Bulletin Board Morons.
When I last wrote about Gulf Keystone (GKP) I said it would be my final word on the subject but that was before Friday’s news of a $300 million bid from the Norwegian Oil company DNO, the details of which are on its website.
Gulf Keystone (GKP) says that it is considering a hostile bid from Norway's DNO which comprises $120 million of cash and $180 million of shares. Given that DNO will be taking on a net $100 million of debt, post the restructuring the offer is remarkably generous but not half as generous as the market implies.
My feelings of satisfaction at being vindicated on Gulf Keystone (GKP) when the details of the debt for equity swap were finally published yesterday were somewhat short lived, as I was put on notice that borrow was being recalled and I had to buy back a fair chunk of the position at more than three times its worth.
Its apology time. To all those morons who have berated me for being a Gulf Keystone (GKP) bear from 180p down it is time to apologise. Today, Paul Curtis and the GKP barmy army have suffered the final kick in the gonads with news of a massive debt for equity swap which sees near total equity wipeout. Its ouzo O'clock for the Sheriff of AIM who awaits the apologies.
Concrete details of the restructuring at Gulf Keystone (GKP) have apparently been leaked to the Times this weekend, confirming that the end is nigh for this once-loved and highly-debated stock.
June was a quiet month for Gulf Keystone (GKP), at least in terms of news for observers. Internally, there are doubtless all manner of interesting conversations taking place. We were given a twin helping of clues on Friday as to the content and direction of these discussions. Unfortunately, there is still no reason to believe that the shares have any value. But maybe the end is nigh.
There is massive speculation about Gulf Keystone (GKP) on the Bulletin Boards and I see that the shares are ahead at 4.2p today. But there are only two facts and I remind you of both as the clock is ticking, it is 11.59 Pm and at midnight shares in this company are likely to go pop.
Cynical Bear has discovered a gem of madness on the LSE Asylum. It seems that if anyone posts a bearish piece on this website it does not matter who the author is named as, the piece was actually written by me, Indeed I am a busy chap because such loons are also convinced that I spend my entire day posting bearish comments on various bulletin boards under various nom de plumes. Hmmmmm why get paid to write when you can post crap for free...why didn't I think of that before?
And God shall wipe away all tears from their eyes; and there shall be no more death, neither sorrow, nor crying, neither shall there be any more pain: for the former things are passed away.
It is with no small sense of humility that I disclose a token short position in Gulf Keystone Petroleum.
Without explicitly using the words "we are 100% fucked and shareholders face either total or near wipeout" drowning in debt Gulf Keystone (GKP) has today pretty much fessed up to what a mess it is in. Not for the first time, the company is telling shareholders that the game is up. Natch they think they know better. They obviously don't remember the last days of Afren.
I am beginning to think that my 1p target price for Gulf Keystone (GKP) is in fact far too generous. Having called this as a sell at 180p and all the way down to abuse from every moron in the land I think it is time to revise the target price. The shares are off another 9% today to just 4.675p. Okay I shall stop being a nice guy, I am cutting my target price from 1p to 0p.
The Morons who have ignored my advice to sell Gulf Keystone (GKP) all the way down from 180p to 6.6p today have occassionally argued that I cannot be right because fund managers are long and strong and they know more than a pizza delivery boy/alcoholic etc etc etc. Today M&G has sold its 5% stake and now owns no shares at all.
As a bear of Gulf Keystone (GKP) since 180p, I note that the shares are now just 11p after the publication of results which are at every level just a disaster - even today this is a storming sell. Where to start?
Gulf Keystone (GKP) has announced that the $15 million gross it announced it was getting on 19 February has arrived which is good news. The bad news, and boy it really is bad news, is that cash post payment is just $56 million.
On the surface it seems like good news once again - as has been the case since September 2015 - the KRG has agreed to hand over $15 million ( $12 million net) to Gulf Keystone (GKP) in fact today's RNS is a disaster.
A candid interview with Gulf Keystone (GKP) CEO Jon Ferrier in that must read publication Upstream (HERE) makes clear that this company is very likely to see a shareholder wipeout within a year. The shares are now 14.5p my target price is , near as damn it, 0p but here are the key takeways from Upstream.
Featuring shares in Clontarf Energy (CLON), China Non Ferrous Gold (CNG), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Imaginatik (IMTK) and Reach4Entertainment (R4E) with share price targets set for all five stocks.
Malcolm Graham Wood is paid large sums of money by oil companies to write reports on their shares which - for obvious reasons - don't tend to be bearish. He does not declare if a company whose shares he is tipping has paid him to do so or not. As such his research should ALL be ignored. Commentators must be transparent in why they are writing. If they are not they are discredited and should be drummed out of town. As such I ignore this pompous lard-bucket.
Ben has produced yet another truly awful piece on Gulf Keystone GKP) today, Flip Flop is a stale long and wrong bull, I have called it spot on as a sell from 180p down to today’s 25.75p. But his offering today “facts about Gulf Keystone’s debt” is not based on fact and makes assertions that are ludicrous.
After my Gulf Keystone (GKP) piece last week (HERE) drew the predictable furious response from Winnifrith (HERE), I’ve been looking into the company’s numbers in a bit more detail. There’s no denying that Gulf is teetering on the edge. However, it is not dead yet. Although it has little to no room for error, so long as the Kurds keep up their regular payments, it is possible that Gulf will be able to pay down its debt and refinance its balance sheet by April 2017. A broker note found its way into my inbox today, broadly supporting this view. It contained some interesting observations on Gulf’s debt position worth sharing.
A few minutes ago flip flop Ben Turney - who has called this stock disastrously wrong - once again put the bull case for shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) at 27p. I've been a bear from 180p all the way down. I remain a bear. My initial target is sub 10p but this could be a zero. I explain all in another mini podcast.
In the next week we should find out whether or not the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is going to make good on its summer pledges. In August and September it promised to establish a regular payment cycle to the various oil producing companies active in the country for crude exports. Share prices of Gulf Keystone (GKP), Genel (GENL) and Norwegian firm DNO (DNO) leapt on the news. Two months and two payments later, the third should be due on or around 15 November. If Gulf receives another $15million, might this help restore some faith in the company’s future?
Featuring shares in Boxhill Technologies (BOX), Empyrean Energy (EME), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Oracle Coalfields (ORCP) and Vast Resources (VAST) with share price targets for all five stocks.
At 32p Gulf Keystone (GKP) is worth £313million. This morning, the company announced its updated Competent Persons Report (CPR) for its oil & gas interests in Kurdistan. The numbers are impressive, but the market reaction has been muted, with Gulf now trading flat on the day. When a company increases its 1P Reserves by a better than expected 55% this would normally be cause for celebration, even in today’s oil price environment. However, as we all know, Gulf’s main challenge isn’t getting oil out of the ground. It is ensuring it gets paid.
Featuring shares in Armadale Capital (ACP), Clear Leisure (CLP), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Transense Technologies (TRT), Tyratech (TYRU), together with some share price targets.
Featuring shares in EMED Mining (EMED), Ferrum Crescent (FCR), Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Plutus Powergen (PPG) with share price targets for all five
Bombing attacks by Turkey on their kinsman, ISIS chopping off heads of their soldiers? A record heatwave in the region killing the old folk and kids? A war on three fronts? Bugger that, these are but trivial issues for the Government of Kurdistan, top of its agenda is protecting the wealth of Bulletin Board morons who own shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP). Well that is what flip flop Ben Turney, Paul Curtis and other bulls of this stock want you to believe. They are wrong.
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) surged yesterday from a low of 26p to a high of 36p, triggered by news of a pledge by the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) that it will start making monthly payments to its oil producers from September. This morning, Gulf’s stock has settled back to 33.5p (last seen), valuing the business at £327.6million. This is towards the bottom of the company’s trading range since the start of the year and after yesterday’s excitement the question is, is Gulf a buy?
Featuring Gulf Keystone (GKP), Jubilee Platinum (JLP), Phorm Corporation (PHRM), Rare Earth Minerals (REM), Stratmin Global (STGR), Vast Resources (VAST)
Featuring Gulf Keystone (GKP), LGO Energy (LGO), Metminco (MNC), Northcote Energy (NCT), Sirius Petroleum (SRSP), Vast Resources (VAST)
Featuring Clontarf Energy (CLON), Edenville Energy (EDL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Tavistock Investments (TAVI)
This morning’s announcement from Gulf Keystone (GKP) had the decided whiff of a profits’ warning about it. It is extremely frustrating when companies dress bad news up. I appreciate the importance shoring up sentiment has, but if a company has to warn shareholders that it is going to miss its financial targets it surely must be an inviolable principle of transparent markets that it explicitly says so. Today’s example from Gulf could prove to be a perfect case in point and doesn’t bode well for new CEO Jón Ferrier’s attitude towards investor relations.
Featuring Coal of Africa (CZA), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Kalimantan Gold (KLG), Red Emperor Resources (RMP)
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at [email protected] - Today I look at Globo, Gulf Keystone, Tristel
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at [email protected] - Today I look at Cyan, Gulf Keystone and Infrastrata.
Apologies for overlooking the truly dreadful smoke and mirrors 2014 results from Gulf Keystone (GKP) last week. In this podcast I look back and flag up a few points the bulls might have overlooked while out on day release from the asylum.
I received shedloads of abuse when I first suggested selling Gulf Keystone (GKP) several moons ago at 186p – the shares are now 36p but where are the apologies? The sell case has changed but is in fact stronger now – my initial target is 10p.
Gulf Keystone (GKP) has managed to raise $40 million before expenses (let’s call that $38 million via a heavily discounted placing at 32p. This is a can kick. It is applying a sticky plaster when your arm just fell off. Bond holders will be laughing, for shareholders the wailing and gnashing of teeth is far from over.
Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) board might not be popular among shareholders at the moment, but it’s been left with little choice. The likely trigger of the Book Equity Ratio (“BER”) Put Option, when the company announces its next set of results, is a looming disaster for the company. If activated, Gulf will be required to make an offer to repurchase all of its $250million 13% Notes, issued last April, for $252.5million plus accrued and unpaid interest, at around the end of September. Given that Gulf had cash of $86.3million prior to this morning’s placement, and appears to be burning about $4million a month, shareholders were facing an Afren’esque (AFR) wipeout. After this morning’s actions, at least there is a glimmer of hope.
Gulf Keystone (GKP) reminded potential suitors on Thursday why there was no reason to pay top dollar for it with the news that permission was needed from the 13% bondholders to avert the exercise of a put option which has been triggered by a fall in its asset value.
If there is one topic guaranteed to start a row at ShareProphets HQ it is Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP). We all know who is on which side and so far I’ve been fighting a losing battle. The collapse in the oil price has hurt this company, but possibly not as much as the specific challenges it faces in getting paid for the oil it produces (oh, and let’s not forget the rampaging nutters currently marauding through the region). On Friday, Gulf disappointed the market with news it had suspended oil exports, pending resolution of a “stable payment cycle”. The share price dropped sharply to settle just above the 52-week low, but are things as bad as the market implies?
Two and a half years ago I wrote this article, outlining the apparent direct relationship between the movement of the price of oil and the introduction of Quantitative Easing. Even though I’ve had this at the back of my mind since, I failed utterly to anticipate the recent price collapse of the black stuff, in response to the withdrawal of QE by the Federal Reserve. This should have been an incredible trading opportunity, not least because the move appears to have wrong-footed so many in the market. In grappling for an explanation, most commentators have settled on a consensus that oil’s fall from Grace is down to fundamental reasons and the lack of global growth. Anyone who has followed the Baltic Dry Index over the last few years will know this is nonsense. Given that the outlook for the price of oil looks decidedly weak, it’s time to revisit three stocks I assessed over the summer and look for any possible signs of encouragement.
I just finished speaking with Gulf Keystone (GKP) CEO John Gerstenlauer and he has confirmed that the skilled technicians required to complete the final hook up of Shaikan 10 are flying to Kurdistan from Canada this week. In Mr Gerstenlauer’s words “we are still on track for 40,000bopd by the end of the year”. Hitting this target, by the self-imposed deadline, will be a significant milestone for Gulf. The company has been criticised in the past for slippages. In meeting the 40,000bopd goal this could go a long way to proving to the market that this business is finally on the cusp of fulfilling its vast potential. Mr Gerstenlauer is clearly confident of this being achievable subject to the security situation remaining stable.
Ben Turney wrote HERE that he gave Gulf Keystone (GKP) the benefit of the doubt after its analysts presentation last week. I do not.
So much hype and hysteria surrounds Gulf Keystone (GKP) that determining a valuation can be an unnecessarily emotional affair. I’ve been increasingly bullish on the stock, since the publication of the Competent Persons Report. However, today’s numbers have given me pause for thought. At 77.5p (last seen), Gulf is valued at £688million. For a company which produced 2.2million barrels of oil in the first half, there is no escaping from the high degree of expectation priced into this stock.
As Iraq adjusts to a new Prime Minister (not a military coup, Tom) and the US Air Force rains down fury on IS fighters, the Kurds have quietly continued to make progress in supplying the international market with their oil. Reuters is on top of this story and over the last few weeks I’ve had a couple of Google Alerts trigger with news of the status of different Kurdish oil shipments. Of all the reports and rumours currently circling around Gulf Keystone (GKP), this could well prove to be the most significant in the long run.
Ben Turney today suggested that US intervention in Iraq would see Isis beaten back and is thus an opportunity to buy Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Genel. He cites some curious examples to back this thesis up
I’ve spent a little time this morning wondering how I could write about events in Kurdistan. It is horrible hoping to profit out of human suffering, but I’ve had to remind myself the market is amoral. It simply reflects the good and the bad of our society, for better or worse. I’ve chosen to be a market commentator and it is more than probable that if you are reading this piece you’ve chosen to buy stocks. However we might feel about what is happening in the world, in this aspect of our lives our goal is simply to grow our wealth by as much as we can. Fear often leads to the best buying opportunities. It is generally a costly mistake to ignore this. The precipitous drop in the value of the various companies with Kurdish oil ventures could prove to be a significant opportunity for anyone who believes in the long term viability of these operations.
President Obama has now ordered his warplanes to bomb some ISIS Islamofascist loons off to a place where they get to meet 72 virgins. He is now off on a 2 week golfing holiday. If you think that this will save the Kurd oil plays in London - Genel (GENL) and Gulf Keystone (GKP) here is why you are wrong.
On a financial level I have always been bearish on Gulf Keystone (GKP) long arguing that the shares were really only worth 30-50p – something that has not endeared me to the Bulletin Board Morons. Well I guess I was right. But what has changed to make this an outright slam dunk short sell? Answer: ISIS.
It is always extremely difficult to pass comment on companies from the outside, without really knowing what has happened behind closed boardroom doors. Even so, I am as certain as I can be that my call last month, that M&G Investment Management was preparing to dump Todd Kozel from Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) board at today’s AGM, has come to pass. We’ve just heard that Mr Kozel has withdrawn his bid for re-election to Gulf’s board, but with this announcement coming immediately before the AGM, I think we can all be fairly safe in assuming it was a case of his jumping before being pushed. Even though Mr Kozel is going to remain as an officer of the company, his departure from the board is a welcome step in the right direction and I am more bullish on Gulf’s prospects as a result.
It looks like little old Scotland’s referendum on independence is proving to be a catalyst for similar movements around the world. The Scottish precedent has the potential to cause a great deal of upheaval, as previously recognised international borders (often rooted in the imperialist past) melt away and fledgling nation states spring up. As a good old fashioned liberal, I view this as a good thing. Why shouldn’t people be able to vote on who governs them? I’ll admit I don’t hold too much interest in the vote for Scottish independence, other than the provocative view if they are allowed to vote on remaining part of the Union, shouldn’t we English also be granted the opportunity to decide whether or not to allow them (and their tax subsidies) to stay?! But before I unleash another wave of Twitter abuse against our site, let’s move swiftly on to events in Kurdistan.
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) have soared in recent days partly on hopes that Todd Kozel would be given the boot at the AGM on 17th July but also on speculation that the company could receive a takeover approach. We understand from a reliable source that there will be no bid.
As the market works itself up into a lather about the prospect of a bid for Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP), the significance of Wednesday’s events appear to have been missed by most shareholders. The headline news was Todd Kozel’s retirement as CEO of the company and his plan to remain as an executive director. The assumption appears to be Mr Kozel will see his wish granted in the vote held on his reappointment, at the AGM on July 17th. I’m not so sure. The departure of three of the four non-executive directors, whom M&G Investment Mgt managed to get appointed to Gulf’s board immediately before the last AGM, surely signals an escalation in the boardroom conflict that has plagued Gulf for too long. And now M&G is no longer playing nice...
It now looks like the recent weakness in Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) share price has been caused by not one, but two civil wars. I covered events in northern Iraq a fortnight ago, yet it is boardroom infighting that is once again the greater concern. Greed does funny things to people and it is high time the directors of Gulf grew up and got their acts together. Failing that, they should just take off their shirts and go and wrestle in the car park until one side cries uncle. Anything would be better than having to watch this never-ending struggle for control of the company.
A difficult week for Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) shareholders finished off with what looks like a positive production update concerning the company’s prolific Shaikan license in Kurdistan. Yesterday, I spoke with the company to confirm a few facts surrounding the latest RNS. In particular I wanted to seek clarification concerning the issues I raised a month ago about the discrepancy between Gulf’s CPR production target for 2014 and the targets the company has since provided, after a few months of operations. In short there has been a reduction in expectations, but this isn’t necessarily bad news, as I explain below. The main point I took away from my conversation was that the company genuinely believes it is on course to deliver its 40,000bopd production target by the end of this year.
I probably shouldn’t write this piece. Making personal judgement on geopolitical events inevitably results in oversimplification and, almost certainly, misunderstanding. I’ve never been to Kurdistan, so the truth is I can’t really have any real insight to what on earth is happening over there. However, my money is mine to do with as I please, and I suspect that the current pullback in Gulf Keystone (GKP) will present an excellent buying opportunity.
The two stocks most beloved by Bulletin Board Morons are Quindell (QPP) and Gulf Keystone (GKP). I have got death threats, shit in the post, a hate campaign against my restaurant for questioning both companies. I am not gloating about the losses suffered by “innocent shareholders.” But the losses suffered by those who have tormented me trying to gag free speech and legitimate questioning cause me no sorrow. Quindell shares have plunged today as it failed to move from the AIM Cesspit to the main market (see HERE) but Gulf is also down by 12.5% at 79.3p: blame leverage and Al Qaeda.
I have noted before how the yield to maturity on Gulf Keystone (GKP) Bonds was a terrifying sell signal on the equity. For folks who have ignored me I have bad news: it is getting worse.
My reasoning the other day on Gulf Keystone (GKP) was that it was due a dead cat bounce and so I went long. That was an error. And I am now short again and here's why.
I am trying as hard as I can to be open-minded about the prospects of Gulf Keystone (GKP). Yesterday, Tom penned another bearish piece on Gulf, in response to the morning’s Interim Management Statement. He raised some valid points, but where I felt his analysis fell short was he didn’t take into account what was promised in the recent Competent Persons Report.
Oh dear, oh dear, today’s trading statement from Gulf Keystone (GKP) is a bit of a dog’s doo doo. I fear that the bears will enjoy it and having suggested that the stock might be a trading buy on the basis that grossly overpaid CEO Todd Kozel might be about to get his P45, I now revert to my normal sell stance – so far utterly vindicated with the share price having dived today to 91p.
I was going to write today suggesting that punters should short the “Card Factory” (prospectus unread) when it makes its market debut next week at whatever price it opens on the basis that Clinton Cards proved two years ago almost to the day that high street greeting card retailers are a recipe for disaster (It went bust).
Report from SkyTV suggest that Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) ludicrously overpaid CEO Todd Kozel might get the order of the boot within weeks. Gulf is declining to comment but the Sky report looks multi-sources and suggests that both other board members and institutional shareholders want Todd to go and to go soon. The shares are 101.5p and unless Gulf kills this story stone dead first thing on Tuesday I’d be a trading buyer on the open. Yes you read that correctly I used the word buy.
A lot of oil companies have had ups and downs, but few to the extent of those experienced by Gulf Keystone (GKP). But after weeks of tumult, what now for this once darling of private investors?
I sense that the tide is turning in Bulletin Board land with regard to Gulf Keystone (GKP). A while back I was universally hated for saying the shares were overvalued. If those who slated me had listened and thought and sold rather than just abusing me they would be rather richer today as a result. Hey Ho. It is their loss. I still think the shares are dramatically overvalued and will see 50p this year. But I sense the mood is changing. These days Todd Kozel is even more hated than me.
It looks as if Gulf Keystone (GKP) has got its $250 million rescue bonds offering away – but what does that mean for the equity? Hmmmmm.
This may surprise you but I reckon shares in Gulf Keystone should bounce – perhaps to 120-125p – in the short term. That to me would be the time to short again as this company’s equity remains grotesquely overvalued as I shall explain.
Not deterred by my death threat last night I offer up two new insights for those unlucky enough to own Gulf Keystone (GKP) shares. I do not delight in your misery just suggest that you consider cutting losses before they become even greater. As they surely will. First to the bond market.
One wonders how seriously I should take an email received last night from a Mr Tony Hartnett of Ireland ([email protected]) - one could read it as a death threat. Just in case I am found underneath a No. 8 bus this week, I reprint it in full so that the Old Bill can know where to start looking.
Looking at the long term (weekly) chart for Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) and it is clear this stock is in some trouble. The breakout below 144p has very negative consequences in the long term. The long term support line (blue dotted line on my chart) was broken on 13th March. This line can be seen as the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern [S1,H,S2] which is a bearish pattern.
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) have slumped by 9% to just 90p today amid ongoing concerns about the company’s rescue $250 million bond offering which has to succeed if Gulf is to avoid going tits up in May.
Bear raider Lucian Miers has a small short position taken recently in Gulf Keystone (GKP)but says that he will increase that short markedly if Gulf shares stay below 100p for two more trading days. And he has issued a stark warning about the Bond issue underway.
At the weekend I challenged Todd Kozel, the grotesquely overpaid CEO of Gulf Keystone (GKP) to record a video interview with me. His Bulletin Board moron fans reckon that I talk cock and so if they are right Todd would wipe the floor with me. I offered to travel anywhere in the world, except to places where Jew Hating bigots might string me up for having an Israeli stamp on my passport – places like Kurdistan, Iran and parts of Bradford. Todd’s PR man says that he won’t do it. Todd is too cowardly to answer questions such as….
ADVFN boss Clem Chambers asks if I can avoid being rude to his customers. Sorry Clem but some of your Bulletin Board customers are total and utter morons and this week’s candidate, posting as Simone Cockswiller is also a rank bigot.
Tom Winnifrith’s weekly financial video postcard this week comes just 13 days ahead of the UK Investor Show. Those who have order tickets have started receiving them already and most will land on Monday & Tuesday. You can still reserve of on the few remaining seats HERE
I gather that I am not wildly popular with certain Bulletin Board Morons for my pieces yesterday on Gulf Keystone (GKP). Arguing that the shares could be worth 0p in some circumstances (HERE) or pointing out that its Bonds were now in Junk Bond territory (HERE) was always going to attract some ire. However, the tone of the comments is most instructive. We are in phase 1 of grief.
The share price of Gulf Keystone (GKP) is driven by private investors. The bond price is driven by more informed individuals and it is now screaming out JUNK!
This is not a question that the legions of Gulf Keystone (GKP) shareholders want to consider but they should now accept that this is a possibility – however remote. How they must wish they had followed grossly overpaid CEO Todd Kozel in dumping all their stock last year.
The Bulletin Board Morons who a year ago worshipped the ground that Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) grotesquely overpaid CEO walked up and abused anyone who had the timerity to question the valuation of this PR creation have had another dreadful day as Gulf has admitted that it could be bust within ten weeks.
In light of the publication of Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s Competent Persons Report, and the subsequent market crash it seems prudent to review the valuation work I completed on this company just 10 months ago. I warned you then…
Much has been written on Gulf Keystone (GKP) since last Thursday when it released a Competent Persons Report (CPR) and provided an operational update. I have been warning about this company for a while now and have no wish to gloat as pretty much every private investor in the land is now sitting on nasty losses as it languishes at multi year lows.
Paid for researcher Edison is rarely harsh on its clients. After all it is paid to produce its research. A hooker does not tell her client he has a small dick she just gets on with it. As such a report out today on Gulf Keystone (GKP) is pretty damning.
Disappointed, angry, confused, upset and shell-shocked are just some of the words we can use to describe Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) legion of shareholders this morning. You’d think the world had ended, judging by the general reaction to the long awaited release of the company’s independent estimate of its Kurdistan oil reserves. The reality is, for anyone who has not bought this share yet (or who can still afford to add), this news looks very welcome indeed. At last we have something of substance to sink our teeth into to try and get to grips with this conundrum of a stock.
One of the problems that you see time again as far as private investors and traders are concerned is that they are drawn to the very stocks and markets which are the most difficult to call and perplexing to understand, even at the best of times.
What is there to say about Gulf Keystone (GKP) that hasn’t already been said? Even the most casual observer of this stock should be well aware of the vast potential and nagging pitfalls, which surround the company and never really seem to be resolved either way. Thankfully I don’t need to get involved in that debate. I have a very simple method for trading Gulf Keystone and it currently suggests it is a buy at 165.94p.
There comes a time in the affairs of all companies that promise much more than they deliver when the patience of investors starts to run out and they head for the exit (usually all at once). Sometimes this can take ages (think Pursuit Dynamics which lasted 18 years or Proteome Sciences(PRM) which is still stringing along investors and approaching its 20th birthday) other times the process is shorter but in virtually all cases the common factor which concentrates minds is cash.
As far as technical analysis of Gulf Keystone (GKP) is concerned, taking a view on the chart is equivalent to gazing on the north face of the Eiger. Is there any hope of regaining that summit?!
Do you know how to trade this most volatile of stocks? Er..no we don’t either. But top chartist Zak Mir has just written a book that claims to “unlock the secret of how to trade Gulf Keystone (GKP)… and its free to download.
Out today is a special trading report from top chartist Zak Mir “Cracking the Trading Code of Gulf Keystone” (GKP). The Uk’s best known chartist explains how to make money on this stock.
There are a couple of technical / charting issues to note at Gulf Keystone (GKP), over and above the way that the shares are “famous” for running rings around retail traders as far as the near term price action is concerned.
It is not difficult to see why the CEO of Gulf Keystone (GKP) Todd Kozel sold out of the bulk of its holding in the Iraq focused oil and gas group in April, given the way that even at the best of times the price action here can be almost heart-attack inducing.
When even those paid to write research are not shouting loudly from the roves of the fan club building that your shares are cheap, you have a bit of a problem. And that brings me to Bulletin Board Moron darling Gulf Keystone (GKP) at 178p.
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) , the oil company which (for the benefit of new arrivals from another planet) sits on the world’s largest oil reserve not in the hands of the multi nationals and is owned by just about every punter in the land, have become a little skittish of late.
Traders always want to hear a definitive entry point and stop loss and target on Gulf Keystone. But right now, the position of the shares at the floor of a rising May price channel, and trading either side of the 200 day moving average at 175p means it is very difficult at the moment to come up with a definitive call.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum is taking on yet more debt with a $50 million bond offering today. The statement made me raise my eyebrows once or twice. I would not buy the shares myself but nor would I short but if forced to choose then at today’s price I’d sell. I observe.
Does anyone understand how to analyse Gulf Keystone on a fundamental basis? Bulls think that it owns more oil than Shell but is valued at 1/70th of the price so is the cheapest share in London. Bears seem to think that it all sounds too good to be true so the shares may well be almost worthless. Who knows?
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) dropped back a bit recently after a sharp rally recently on the news that the law suit bought against the company by Xcalibur had failed. This was always the likely outcome and now that it is out of the way there is a welcome opportunity to focus on the prospects of the company. I remain bearish.
AIM-listed, Kurdistan-focused, oil and gas bulletin board darling Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) has announced the appointments of five new non-executive directors with immediate effect, with the company’s Chairman, Simon Murray, emphasising that it is “firmly focused on completing the move from AIM to the Standard Segment of the Official List before the year end. I have great confidence in the ability of this enlarged, balanced and united board to complete this move and to continue developing the company in the interests of all our shareholders”. However, …
AIM Listed Gulf Keystone (GKP) picked a fight with its instititutional investors over corporate governance and has lost. In light of its earlier statements a climbdown today by the board is, for them, an abject humiliation.
AIM-listed, Kurdistan-focused, oil and gas hopeful Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) has announced a unanimous board recommendation that shareholders vote against the election to its board of all four candidates proposed by shareholder M&G... It’s statement – see HERE – raises some valid points but also includes various hype and bluster...
On the day Andy Murray was serving out for Wimbledon glory, the £7.4 billion M&G Recovery Fund was serving up a volley of a rather different kind to AIM-listed bulletin board darling Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) – which has responded today...
Paid for researcher Edison has published a detailed research report on Gulf Keystone (GKP) giving a crumb to the bears but a loaf to the bulls.
Today we finally see the much anticipated Field Development Plan from Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP).
Full year results from AIM Bulletin Board darling Gulf Keystone (GKP) are out today and broker VSA Resources has been quick to flag to its clients three major areas of concern.
As you might imagine I am very familiar with the daily chart Gulf Keystone. Indeed, it could be said more familiar with it than most. So far today it would appear that the post May recovery does not want to fizzle out just yet.
Thursday will be a day of birthday celebrations for Frank Lampard and Nichole Kidman, but will Gulf Keystone shareholders be cracking open the Champagne, or hitting themselves over the head with a bottle of Babycham when the annual results are revealed?
The recent rebound in Gulf Keystone shares means that they are fast approaching not only the level of the broken two-year uptrend line at £1.70, but also what can be described as the coastal level, the £1.67 zone where CEO Todd Kozel transferred 10 million ordinary shares to a third party.
A few weeks ago I described Genel as being a rich man's Gulf Keystone. Ironically it would appear that in the wake of the latest Kurdistan oil discovery from the two groups, Genel may have itself contributed to help making Gulf Keystone a rather richer version of itself than the bears may feel comfortable with.
As you might imagine over recent weeks have become quite a keen follower of the news wires in terms of the latest developments at Gulf Keystone. I also keep an eye on what the latest targets are for the oil and gas explorer. It would appear that we are looking at anywhere between £10 and 10p as far as the forecast price targets for this much followed / sacred cow of a company.
Today I was delighted to have been forwarded numerous copies of a letter from Mr Dalesmann. Finally he has corrected his errors and he now concurs with my valuation calculations for the assets of Gulf Keystone Petroleum.
I have received lots of letters from confused investors over the past few days, who have simply been unable to derive any sense from the Shaikan Production Sharing Contract, some examples of which are contained below from a passage I was forwarded several times originally inked by a Mr Dalesmann.
I am by nature a sceptic. In terms of Gulf Keystone that instinct is increased by three factors. But in the interests of balance since none of the other 18 writers on this website is prepared to consider the possibility that Gulf shares could go up from here, I offer up a short term bull case for the stock at 129p.
There was a great response from the investment community following my analysis last week. But a couple of points really stick out amongst all the comments I read.
AIM listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) is the darling of many private investors in the UK and further afield.
Investors in Gulf Keystone (GKP) are on tenterhooks right now awaiting the outcome of a court case bought about by a small outfit named Excalibur which is claiming that Gulf owes it a chunk of its assets.
In the classic film Some Like It Hot, Tony Curtis’s character professes to be the heir to Shell Oil in order to win over Marilyn Monroe.
To run a junior oil company which claims to be sitting on reserves greater than those of Shell and to claim furthermore that this is only scratching the surface, takes a fair amount of self-belief.
It has to be said that I am not exactly feeling the love as far as the bulletin board community are concerned, given my recent sell stance on Gulf Keystone and the worst case scenario 10p share price target.
In 2011 and 2012 AIM listed Gulf Keystone (GKP) held its AGM in Paris. This year it is to be in Bermuda…why the switch?
I am expecting that the next statement from Gulf Keystone will be “The company knows of no reason for the decline in its share price.”
Desperado was a great song by The Eagles, and although some 40 years old, could be the theme tune to the latest RNS from Gulf Keystone.
14bn barrels of oil as a possible reserve sounds enormous. But can Gulf Keystone export any oil that it produces from Kurtdistan?
How to approach the shares now that key support at 161p has been lost. Further updates during the week as necessary - stay tuned.
Gulf Keystone (GKP) is either the cheapest stock on AIM or is a horror waiting to blow.
Is it game over for the bulls of AIM listed Bulletin Board darling Gulf Keystone (GKP)? The video from Zak Mir suggests the way forward according to Technical Analysis. It is not a bright prognosis.
Overall, this suggest there will be few who do not believe the February claim from the company that 2013 will be an “exciting” year.
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