Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: can anyone interpret my new nightmare, a Saint (Vin) and a sinner (Lucian) and his toxic 4
The weather this week provided a little reminded to me of 1976. Of course back then, before global warming started, it was far warmer – in fact we had 15 consecutive days from June into July with over 90 degree temperatures (32.2C in new money). This week of course provided me with the opportunity to once again recall those days, if only for a short while. I also looked at Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) RNS on Friday and noted the share price getting hot also.
Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) published its 2020 year end accounts today. Even with a post reporting date cash injection from its running death spiral, the auditors (Ernst & Young LLP) very heavily qualified the accounts, stating an opinion on the use of going concern basis of accounting could not be formed, due the number and level of uncertainties the company faces.
I gather that it is ouzo on cornflakes time at Peter Brailey’s this morning as Simec Energy (SAE) shares have gone into meltdown on the back of a disingenuous but unmistakeably bad statement – something clever old Peter predicted HERE. The stench of David Cameron, Lex Greensill and Tory sleaze is at the heart of the problem.
I always read an operational update from an AIM listed company with interest. This week has been busy so it’s only now I have had the time to draft some thoughts on Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) operational update issued on Wednesday. I always have in mind three reasons for a trading update - “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”. No prizes guessing my conclusions on this one.
Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) updated the market yesterday that the Uskmouth Power Station planning application has been “called in” for determination by the Welsh Government. That in itself is bad news for shareholders as this will cause delay. However that is far from the entirety of the bad news.
Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) is a company I have commented on over the last few years. The share price has defied fundamentals but I have maintain my view, that ultimately, reality will prevail. I rather think that time is arriving. The “flagship” project – Uskmouth Power Station is likely to be facing serious delay. The company is drowning in debt – some of which is immoral in my view. Meanwhile is there a potential whacking great stock overhang to consider.
I revealed on April 2 how Tertiary Minerals (TYM) had ramped its shares by announcing that it had terminated an utterly usurious death spiral with the spivs at Bergen. How the Bulletin Board Morons lapped it up. Tertiary has refinanced with a new entity which er, if you read the small print, turned out to be Bergen and the new package was a death spiral on steroids. Oh boy how the morons had to lube up for that spoof.
Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) updated the markets yesterday on the permitting and consent process for what it describes as its flagship scheme the Uskmouth (Money Pit) Power Station. It confirmed what I have been saying for some time – it’s seriously delayed. The company did not say what has caused the delay and what it means. Let me try to help.
I wrote last week about Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) and the delay in determining the Uskmouth Power Station consents. I highlighted the delay in determination of the Natural Resource Wales (NRW) consent and any positive determination would then be followed by the Planning Application process. I was inadvertently wrong – the planning application is in and running and hence it is only appropriate I correct a matter of fact and what changes in my opinion as a consequence.
Almost all companies advise investors in a timely manner about material developments to the investment case, but some do not. Of course stock market rules mean all should but I have flagged previously how I consider Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) has revealed material project delay information via non-RNS routes. Guess what? – the cash-consuming Uskmouth Power station project looks delayed again, why have investors not been updated?...
I have commented on Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) on a number of occasions over the last year on this site. I like the tidal turbine business as an Engineer, even if it is pre-commercial and in my view has little merit as an investment case basis. I have expressed my real concerns about the Uskmouth power scheme, which is by far the financially important part of the business. Fridays finance update on the scheme is potentially good news, but the fundamental issues I see with the risk profile on Uskmouth remain unchanged.
Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) finally fessed up on its need for cash, announcing an emergency bailout placing today. The results have been issued as unaudited as the company needs the cash to obtain an unqualified audit statement. All very predictable, as I did most recently here. So that justified Ouzo on my cornflakes, but the detail in the RNS statements today rings even more alarm bells for me related to the fuel supply for Uskmouth Power – the claimed flagship project in the portfolio.
My understanding of the disclosure requirements for AIM listed companies is that material price sensitive information known to the company has to be disclosed without delay via RNS. Today Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) has updated the market by RNS on the Uskmouth power project. The share price is off 20% today as I write, but the key “news” was all detailed in my article in April and put in the public domain prior to that!
I have commented on Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) on a number of occasions noting both the use of retail bond funding (immoral) and highly questionable technical and commercial merits of its operations. Today we are told Covid19 has impacted the timing of its flagship project – Uskmouth Power. I think this is rather disingenuous.
I commented on Simec Atlantis Resources (SAE) in August in some detail and I called it a sell based on the technical and commercial situation. I further commented on what I considered an immoral retail bond offering. Today we get three RNS‘s covering developments in various parts of the business which will add to cash consumption. So when’s the placing?
I commented on the investment case for Simec Atlantis Resources (SAE) a few month ago – I called it a sell and justified my opinion at some length. Having reflected on my prior article, and frankly all writers of opinion on investment cases should reflect on their opinion, I am now clear this company’s retail bond offering is at best immoral. For a “Green Energy” company what could be worse?
I have provided input to projects in the UK power sector over the last 30 years, initially in the “dash for gas” in the early 1990’s building gas fired combined cycle plants but in recent years in the “renewable sector” of waste to energy generation. I thought as a change to looking at Oil and Gas companies I would have to detailed look at one active in the renewable sector - Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) caught my eye. High technical and commercial risk, does not begin to describe my conclusions!
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