Friday 23 March 2018 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
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The February 2018 edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is now live: Nine share tips, giving in a tax-efficient way, don't count Trump out
I admit it: this has been a very poor tip, dating way back to the ShareProphets Christmas/New Year tipfest at the end of 2014 when I offered AIM-listed Scancell (SCLP) at 31.75p. Much of what I was looking for came to pass - apart, that is, from an offer for the company or one of its cancer-busting platforms. And a few things went wrong.
AIM-listed cancer-buster Scancell (SCLP) announced on Friday that its seven-year-old supply of SCIB-1 vaccine trial doses has had to be withdrawn as the product is no longer within the original specification: it has degraded. The formal trial ended last year, but eight patients elected to continue the treatment which has had to come to an abrupt halt until a new batch is manufactured (about 9-12 months). Bad news, but perhaps not as bad as it might seem.
Well this is very annoying, and a result of new rules brought to the EIS scheme. I’m sure that AIM-listed Scancell would have much preferred that it were not the case, but it seems that EIS reliefs can only be applied for by investors who had previously bought EIS-qualifying shares and are now looking to take up their Open Offer entitlements.
It has been too long since I revisited AIM-listed biotech Scancell (SCLP). Much has happened since I picked it as a share for 2015 but it is egg-on-face as the shares have more than halved, with (so far) no value-enhancing corporate deal on the table. The clinical trial on the company’s lead product, SCIB-1, is done but there have been funding questions – correctly called by Tom Winnifrith. Now we have an EIS-qualifying open offer on the table alongside a placing, with some detail of plans going forward. Still holding my shares, the question is what to do?
Scancell (SCLP) has today issued results for the six months to 31 October 2015 which is jam packed with scientific waffle which is - I am sure - all terribly exciting and might get some Bulletin Board Morons buying the stock. That would help as the hard numbers on cash don't lie. It is placing ahoy, Scancell cannot dodge this bullet forever.
Corrected version: Scancell (SCLP) today served up news of a fairly orderly chairman succession but the mystery is of the dog that barked in the night. Yes, it did not. I refer to the apparent lapse of millions of incredibly in the money share options over Christmas.
It is clear that for most of 2015, the experience for traders on the long side of Scancell Holdings has not been a happy one.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at [email protected] - Today I look at shares in IQE (IQE), Prospex Oil & Gas (PXOG) and Scancell Holdings (SCLP) setting share price targets for all three stocks.
Back on August 28 2015 I reported that Scancell (SCLP) wanted to do a placing after its results the following week. Some of the quite deranged followers of this company took it rather badly but as the shares slipped talk of a placing abated. I stood by my assertion that Scancell wanted to place and that its balance sheet was indicative of a company that would place. Hmmm.
AIM-listed biotech play Scancell (SCLP) released its results to April 2015 on Friday morning, along with some further tit-bits from its ongoing Phase I/II clinical trial testing its lead SCIB-1 treatment for melanoma. Since my original write-up on this company (HERE) there have been a few refinements, but the investment proposition is essentially the same as ever: if the product gets through the regulatory drug trial process unscathed then Scancell should be worth a healthy multiple of its current market capitalisation.
Shares in much ramped AIM listed biotech Scancell (SCLP) now trade at 28-30.5p valuing it at a stonking £65 million. But the balance sheet is painfully thin and the word is that there is a placing on the way at a big discount.
As expected, Scancell Holdings (SCLP) delivered an RNS update on its ongoing Phase I/II SCIB-1 drug trials yesterday morning, following its presentation on Monday at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting in Chicago. The meeting itself has generated plenty of headlines, with lots of froth about a new cure for cancer from immunotherapy – the space in which Scancell operates: SCIB-1 is a treatment for melanoma. So what of the new data?
Just a brief piece, as I expect an RNS imminently and will comment in more detail once it is out. Shares in Scancell Holdings (SCLP) have spiked somewhat over the past couple of trading sessions and now sit at 41p last seen (having been as high as almost 45p). Having dipped down below 25p at the beginning of April and even just a few days ago having been 30p this is quite a jump.
Having put forward Scancell plc (SCLP) as my first suggestion in the ShareProphets new year tipfest HERE I had a chat with joint CEO Dr Richard Goodfellow following a clinical trials update RNS HERE .
Scancell (SCLP) is a biotech stock I’ve been keen on for some four or five years. The statistics on getting new treatments through clinical trials and regulatory approvals are terrible, so we are certainly at the high-risk end of the spectrum, but I believe the risk/reward is favourable and I like the company, management, the way it behaves (important!) and the products currently being developed. Here is why.
The other day Scancell (SCLP) saw its market value halve as it announced a conditional Firm Placing of 20,000,000 new Ordinary Shares at 22.5 pence each to raise gross funds of approximately £4.5 million. Its new backers are various EIS and VCT funds managed by Calculus Capital. In addition, and in order to provide Qualifying Shareholders with an opportunity to subscribe for new Ordinary Shares at the same price, the Company announced an Open Offer to raise up to a further £2.0 million (before expenses).
As you might imagine, it is difficult not to have favourites amongst the dozens of stocks and markets you may be looking at from a technical perspective at any one time. In the recent past, the stock that delivered everything promised was Tethys Petroleum (TPL), as a break of 50p targeted 65p, and this was duly hit within a few days. As far as Scancell is concerned, it would appear that we have an almost identical charting setup here.
Once again with a minnow stock we are looking to see when the second leg of a near vertical spike some months ago will resume. In the case of Scancell it would appear that such a move is imminent given that there have already been more than eight months of consolidation of a move from under 10p to over 60p in the June to October 2012 period.
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