Monday 19 March 2018 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Two Pauls and a Nigel - learn value investing from the masters at UK Investor on April 21- today's offer
The February 2018 edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is now live: Nine share tips, giving in a tax-efficient way, don't count Trump out
Hello, Share Chillers. We have two reasons the Footsie is flat at the mo. One is the usual January post-Christmas party hang-over. Shares rose fast just before the 25th in a rosy cloud of Yuletide optimism. But, as nearly always happens, January produces a headache.
Hello, Share Smashers. At the mo, there are some nasty threats to our shares prices. High consumer, corporate and national debt. Comparatively high PE ratios. Over-cooked company valuations, low wages, higher inflation and a bull market, past its sell-by date. But all those perils can be offset by the following massive factor…
Hello Share Swabbers. I’ve held Tullow Oil (TLW) shares for as long as I can remember. At one stage they were up 120%. Nowadays I’m down by 50%. Like all the other big oil producers the share price has been attacked by the falling value of Brent crude. But Tullow seems to have suffered more than most.
Looking at the performance of many oil producers over the past few months you could easily be forgiven for thinking that their problems are over and all is rosy within the sector once more.
Hello Share Bunnies. Tullow Oil (TLW) shares I've held a long time. Too long, as it turned out. Not many years ago they doubled my outlay in a year or two. Then, like nearly all other big oilers they were hit a year ago, or so by the big black stuff crash. Actually the share had been on the back foot before that. But I reckon Tullow could be on the march again. Over the last few days, the advancing oil price has decided to take a rest. But not for long, I fancy. You can see my reasons in a few recent examples of my modest Shareprophets column.
Last night at no-one-is-watching o'clock (6.15pm) fully listed Tullow Oil (TLW) released an RNS entitled Director/PDMR shareholding. At first sight it appears to be a disclosure of option awards. Nothing to get excited about then. But there was also a notification of options being exercised, with some being sold to meet tax liabilities. Still not all that exciting? Read on, and we learn that....
The oil price is on its knees, but I think we’re very close to being at a stage where its time to start buying oil producers for the longer term. The trick is going to be picking those that are strong enough to survive in the current climate, and avoiding those that could get into serious trouble with their debt.
Oil producers have had a terrible year, but I think there could be more of the same to come and we will see some more casualties. Unfortunately oil is one of my favourite sectors and it has performed abysmally over the past 12 months or so, thanks to the crash in oil prices, with WTI currently sitting at around the $40 area, and Brent at circa $43.
Oil companies have been hammered again in recent months, but I think there is still far worse to come for some of them. Reading the bulletin boards you could probably be forgiven for not realising the extent of the problems that many producers will be facing in the near future, as some investors are sticking their heads in the sand and expecting a quick bounce back in the oil price – as they have been for months now!
Hello Share Cats. Nobody talks about oil shares much anymore. It seems the low price of crude has taken its toll on those of us who have invested big time in oil companies, both big and small.
Some of you will think that I’ve taken leave of my senses to even be looking at anything in the oil sector at the moment.
By most valuation measures it is hard to make a case for buying Tullow Oil (TLW). In fact, were Tullow an ordinary oil producing company it would probably be impossible. But Tullow isn’t an ordinary oil producing company. Even after a dreadful year or so in the field, which has led to a 37% drop in its share price, it still sports the reputation of being one of the world’s preeminent explorers. And it has aggressive plans for 2014.
In many ways, as far as Tullow Oil has been concerned, in the post September, period the price action has actually been “too bad to be true”. On this basis, the type of dead cat bounce rally we were treated to yesterday could be seen as par for the course. I say this, even thought the shares were unable to sustain the sharp January support bear trap rebound from below £8.18.
Ouch. Bitch. Miaow. Top resources broker VSA has initiated its coverage of Tullow Oil (TLW) with a detailed note claiming that all the other London analysts have valued this stock incorrectly. Ouch. Bitch and miaow again.
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