Sunday 16 December 2018 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
TrakM8 (TRAK) served up dismal interims late last week but as I warned then, things could get an awful lot worse. It all depends on how much the bankers at HSBC and panicking and what they are doing about it. TrakM8 needs to fess up to investors and make a statement.
For a while it was going so well for TrakM8 (TRAK). Put out RNS’s saying you had cash when you had debt, record ramptastic interviews with thirsty Paul Scott and get him ramping hard, make really dodgy acquisitions that made no sense, generate no cash and watch the shares go ever higher. Then the Sheriff of AIM started to look underneath the hood and kick the tyres. The shares were 360p back then. They are opening today at just 23p to sell after a truly diabolical set of results and a (lack of) profits warning. If you were at the heart of the rampfest, it would be enough to turn a man to drink.
My long term bearishness about TrakM8 (TRAK) a company that issues misleading RNS’s, makes ludicrous acquisitions as it racks up its debts and never translates profits (a matter of opinion) into cash (a matter of fact, unless you are an AIM China fraud) is well documented here. Of course, Thirsty Paul Scott had cosy chats with the management and knew better than a "nutcase of the first order". Today the shares have tanked to a new multi year low after another dire statement.
Results for its year ended 31st March 2018 from Trakm8 Holdings (TRAK) emphasise earnings and revenue growth and see Executive Chairman John Watkins stating “it is pleasing to report very strong progress during the past year”. The shares have responded, er, currently 8.5% lower, back sub 100p…
Shares in Trakm8 (TRAK) ended yesterday c12% higher, back above 100p, on the back of a “International Contract Award” RNS. Ooooh, “international” hey – ramptastic or what’s the detail?
For those of us who have been 100% vindicated with our bearishness on TrakM8 (TRAK) today is a bit of a party because we find ourselves celebrating not one but three pieces of bad news. And we are not the only ones celebrating.
I would imagine that Lorne Daniel, an honourable man, who is the research analyst covering tech round at FinnCap will also be on cloud nine as he will never have to write another supportive corporate broker note on this dog ever again. For the first news is that TrakM8 is switching Nomad and broker from FinnCap to Arden Partners.
I wonder if my pal Paul Scott, the UK's top share blogger, has headed up to the post industrial grim urban wastlelands of Coventry for the AGM and investor open day of TrakM8 (TRAK). As someone who grew up near there I would not wish such a fate on anyone let alone a sensitive soul like Paul. Anyhow if a day in the place that gave us "Living in a ghost town" is not bad enough he will also have to digest a trading statement crafted by evil PR genius and crony capitalist Reg Hoare which ...leave a lot to be desired in term transparency. I would expect nothing less.
My contention, questioned by certain other well known share bloggers, is that TrakM8 (TRAK) is what Warren Buffett would define as a "bad company." That is not saying that it is a fraud. It is not, although it has told untruth's in RNS's and raised cash to buy some strange old businesses. It is bad because it just does not generate free cashflow. Paul Scott, PR crony capitalist Reg Hoare or the paid corporate shrills can bang on abourt earnings per share till the cows come home but earnings are a matter of opinion, cash is a matter of fact. Trakm8 yesterday published its, piss poor, results for the year ended 31 March 2017.
This morning, after a series of profits warnings, AIM uber dog TrakM8 (TRAK) has announced that there is a bookbuild underway on a £1.66 million bailout placing at just 65p. The shares are now 67p bid so you'd be a moron to participate but conversations are being had between institutional morons and hapless broker FinnCap right now, not withstanding the fact that today's statement lays bare the Nov 28 interim statement as 100% misleading.
All the shit I got when I warned y'all repeatedly what a crap company TrakM8 (TRAK) is almost seems worth it now after yet another awful profits warning. No doubt share blogger Paul Scott, crony capitalist PR Man Reg Hoare and uber-bullish analyst Lorne Daniel of Finncap have already ordered that crates of ouzo be sent to me at once as my top analysis is vindicated again. It is what this warning does not say that should terrify you. Things will get worse.
It is my birthday today and the TrakM8(TRAK) supporters club of top blogger Paul Scott, crony capitalist PR man Reg Hoare and tech analyst Lorne Daniel of FinnCap need each to order a bottle of ouzo to send me with a note saying "you were right - you is da king". Subsidiary accounts for Route Monkey have finally emerged and are truly diabolical just as I predicted to hoots of derision from the supporters club.
As we know, my good pal Paul Scott bought shed loads of TrakM8 (TRAK) shares at c220-230p following what he termed a "Winni-wobble", that is to say share price weakness caused by my high quality investigative and forensic journalism. With the shares dipping another 10% today to 165p-170p without me saying a dickie bird, perhaps Paul wants to average down? I wouldn't.
I am aware that Britain's top share blogger Mr Paul Scott is flying back from an extended Greek holiday this morning. When he lands at Gatwick and checks his smartphone he will see that shares in his beloved TrakM8 (TRAK) have dived by 10% today, to just 200p to sell after a piss poor trading statement. I hope Paul has some duty free ouzo for the Sheriff as I think he owes me an apology on this one. Hmmmmm I can almost smell the aniseed now...Scotty you know where to send it.
No doubt Paul Scott is wetting himself as TrakM8 (TRAK) boasts of how pre-tax profits of £3 million leads to cash of £4.45 million being generated in calendar 2015. There is so much cash generated that his Dorset bunnies are paying a 2p per share dividend, even though the company has now moved into net debt. The squeals of Scotty delight in Brighton are almost audible here in Bristol. Except that it is all smoke and mirrors. TrakM8's business remains a piss poor non generator of cash.
Paul Scott insists that I must ignore the series of historic lies, woeful lack of cash generation and the rest of the Red Flags at TrakM8 (TRAK) and look forward to the jam tomorrow. I shall do exactly that on Monday and show why that jam won't arrive. But Benjamin Graham tells us that historics are often a better guide to valuation than promises of jam tomorrow and in that vein I shall now demonstrate what an overhyped dog's dinner of a cash consumer this company is.
Paul Scott's beloved TrakM8 (TRAK) would like you to think that its latest purchase, Route Monkey, was a prize jewel it was lucky to pick up. Au contraire. Its a dog and has been for sale for at least 20 months...finally it found a buyer in TrakM8. Now one potential purchaser who "kicked the tyres" has been in touch. He says.
Paul Scott has today dismissed THREE lies told by TrakM8 (TRAK) in RNS statements as irrelevant. Whatever. So let's go with a fourth and from there look at what was hailed as a transformative deal, the purchase of Box Telematics Ltd in a Reverse takeover in October 2013.
Britain's top share blogger Paul Scott seems to have fallen in love with TrakM8 (TRAK) and is thus blind to numerous red flags which in any other stock would be causing him to plunge the knife in. Let's start with the lie about net cash.
The real reason that shares in TrakM8 (TRAK) are going to crash is that whatever bull it spouts about earnings and profits it simply does not generate any meaningful free cashflow as I demonstrated yesterday HERE as I also showed what a duff deal the Monkey purchase was. But in order to give the impression of growth, companies like this always have to do lots of acqusitions so now let us look at the purchase of DCS Systems announced - with another lie - on 16th June 2015 about a month before directors dumped 1.22 million shares at just 157p.
On 21st December - as all normal folks were not watching - much ramped AIM casino telematics play TrakM8 (TRAK) announced the £9.1 million purchase of Route Monkey Holdings, a transaction which is nonsensical - if one bothers reading Monkey's 2014 accounts - but given that Trak's own shares are ludicrously overvalued who really cares?
The daily chart of Trakm8 has been and continues to be a decent example of a trending stock which one should be able to rely on.
It is interesting that the big buy signal on the Trakm8 (TRAK) daily share price chart was as long ago as December last year, coming in the form of a golden cross between the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. Can the shares live up to this omen?
It rather goes with the territory that as far as Bull Calls Of The Day are concerned, we should be generally looking at and looking for charts for shares like the one currently being sported by Trakm8 Holdings (TRAK). There could now be an interesting upside share price target brewing
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