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Tesco - a recovery buy

2017-10-06 00:50:29

Imagine the scene, if you will, on the trading desks of a professional investment house after Tesco (TSCO) just puckered up its interim results. Another quarter of like-for-like sales growth, free cash flow generation chivving down the debt burden, margin targets for later in the decade reiterated and - stone the crows! - the interim divvy is back. Fingers would be tapping away sending little messages to your favoured clients or internal portfolio managers. You can imagine what is written: “Tesco’s is back!”, one message might read. Another would undoubtedly exhort the reader to buy the stock.

Big Recovery for a Once Hard-Hit Retail Giant Makes it a Worthwhile Punt, Now

2017-10-05 00:05:30

Hello, Share Crackers. It happens nine times out of ten. A company announces much bigger profits in its half term results - and the share price crumbles. But no need for alarm, as the price usually recovers to strike north again within a few days. An enticing buying opportunity then? Which bring me to today’s tip.

Four Nuclear Missiles, Big Threats and the Impact on Your Shares

2017-08-11 23:22:18

Hello Share Crunchers. We have a little saying in our family. ‘There’s always something…’ Meaning, however well things seem to be going, there is invariably a major snag to  contend with. 

Tesco May Be Heavily Traded - But I Rather Wish I'd Not Bothered Myself

2017-05-04 00:01:01

Hello Share Grapplers. It seems that two of the most popular shares being bought and sold by we great band of punters at the mo are Lloyds Group (LLOY) and Tesco (TSCO). I looked at Lloyds yesterday, reckoning it has the making of a good buy because of slow, if unspectacular, progress revealed in its last quarterly figures. I’ll turn to another well-traded share, Tesco, today.

Tesco opens its wallet to sort out its accounting scandal

2017-03-28 02:12:44

I found out all about ‘Deferred Prosecution Agreements’ (DPAs) today as supermarket behemoth Tesco (TSCO) said it would spend £235 million to sort out 2014’s accounting scandal…and will not be prosecuted, naturally…

The Tesco Recovery Play - and Why It Might Just Come Off

2017-02-13 01:20:05

Hello Share Grinders. As I write this, I’m aware that wise Shareprophets commentator Wildrides will be sharpening his pencil to disagree. And I am not at all sure about supermarkets myself - though I still have shares in the big three home-grown ones. Looking at Morrison (MRW), Sainsbury (SBRY) and Tesco (TSCO), I think the last named is the most likely to bring us the most money from our owning the shares.

Are the supermarkets hot to shop after their Xmas trading updates?

2017-01-12 05:06:56

After being outed by Tom Winnifrith as a non-adherent to the Star Wars doctrine, I turn my thoughts to matters in our galaxy (not far away)…and the bevy of trading updates from supermarkets this week.

Tesco Shares Soar - But is the Joy Justified?

2016-10-05 23:57:46

Hello Share Twiddlers. Tesco (TSCO) published its first-half figures this week and the shares rocketed by 12%. That pleased me as I still hold a load of its stock - though I wish I could get round to dumping it. You see, I’m not sure that the leap in share price was justified. Yes, revenues were up, but pre-tax profit was down (including a £200m foreign exchange loss).

Tesco's is just like Brexit (or maybe a hedge fund)

2016-10-05 04:28:27

So Tesco (TSCO) shares are flying today.  Well that's great news as a shareholder. The move is justified as Dave Lewis ('Tesco Dave') is doing a solid job with his difficult aircraft carrier sized hand.  Improving positive momentum in UK like-for-like sales, more engaged customers and an internal satisfaction survey that Tesco staff are feeling the love again. That's a couple of boxes ticked on the 'to do' list.  Other parts of the business like the global operations and the Tesco Personal Finance crunch along in a workable manner.  

Tesco three charged with Fraud by SFO - This gives a timescale for Rob Terry

2016-09-09 05:47:56

The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has today charged three individuals, Carl Rogberg, 49, Christopher Bush, 50, and John Scouler, 48, with one count of Fraud by Abuse of Position, contrary to section 1 and 4 of the Fraud Act 2006 and one count of False Accounting contrary to s17 Theft Act 1968. These are the first charges brought against folks at Tesco (TSCO) for cooking its books. The timescale is fascinating for those interested in the fate of Rob Terry and the other Quenron fraudsters...

Tesco - Performance Perks Up, Sector Still Difficult

2016-06-27 00:16:11

My Tesco series continues as we take a quick look at the Q1 results issued on Thursday, and check the market share trends for signs of stabilisation.

Tesco – Simplifying its way to success

2016-06-25 04:16:55

In all the excitement over the European referendum, Tesco has continued to plug away on the recovery track and has possibly been overlooked. News flow has been steady and has positive.

Tesco – Back to Basics

2016-06-11 03:29:32

Friday saw confirmation from Tesco (TSCO) of two divestments which were anticipated to be in the works.  The first is a proposed sale for cash of £30 million, while the second is the intention to sell (price not yet given). The news signals continued efforts to manage the company’s debt pile and the scale of its ambitions. Let’s take a look.

It’s Beginning to Look Like Christmas - and the usual Yule Share Boom.

2015-12-04 00:34:42

Hello Share Surfers. The old Footsie fell 2.5% on a day which began rather well. Why? Well, according to the media, the European Central Bank 'failed to deliver on market expectations for an increase in monthly asset purchases.’

Why Not Join the Tesco Recovery Bandwagon?

2015-10-13 04:07:14

Hello Share Shunters. Well, I’m having a terrible week. My new bed from Tesco (TSCO) arrived with a vital part missing. Then the Internet connection to my new home in York failed to work. And then...oh, never mind let’s look at Tesco.

Tesco: the super tanker starts to turn

2015-10-07 05:43:11

Which of the following do you believe is more important as a guide to Tesco’s (TSCO) corporate well-being?

Pay Your Store Workers a Bit More, Tesco. Every Little Helps.

2015-06-29 00:37:05

Hello Share Twiddlers. I hold shares in Tesco (TSCO). I have written before on this lip-smacking site in anticipation of a big recovery after disastrous figures. But now I am not so sure.

Tesco – every little improvement helps (and hello 225p again)

2015-06-28 05:13:09

Well hello again a 225p Tesco (TSCO) share price.  Friday’s trading update still has plenty of grim headline news contained within it (-1.3% UK like-for-like sales performance and a general food retail market that is ‘still challenging and volatility is likely to remain a feature of short-term performance’) but Tesco shares had a better day.  

Zak Mir's Bear Call Of The Day: Tesco: Below 200 Day Moving Average Targets 140p Zone

2015-06-08 23:43:02

It is perhaps just as well that my remit at Shareprophets is largely focused on the technical side, as it can be said for Tesco’s (TSCO) fundamentals that despite Dave”Drastic” Lewis attempts to turn this situation around, it is difficult to see a happy ending here.

Tesco: don’t look at your holding for three years or don’t bother

2015-04-22 03:53:59

It might be a heavy corporate earnings results day around the world but for tomorrow’s business pages the lead story is already obvious following the disclosure earlier by Tesco (TSCO) that it lost a cool £6.4 billion in the last full financial year. 

Tesco at 239p a buy?

2015-02-11 09:40:42

I note that I reviewed Tesco (TSCO) shares in January when they had sunk to 180p. It was a fairly full note and most of the argument it included still informs any appraisal of Tesco shares even if they have climbed 32% since then.  I took a long term positive view on the shares and see that the market has compressed that long term into a matter weeks.

Pick Some Companies Which Don't Get What They Sell from the Ground.

2015-01-22 02:38:17

Hello Share Twisters. I opined a few weeks ago that the best course, given the disastrous fall of oil and mining companies, is to focus on firms which don't sell the black stuff or minerals.

Tesco at 200p after the Christmas trading statement - where next?

2015-01-09 06:05:22

I suggested here some time ago, that the Tesco (TSCO) dividend payout looked vulnerable, so news that the company will not be paying a final dividend is not surprising. Last year to February 28 2014, the company reported £2.8 billion of operating cash, most of which went in to capital expenditure (£2.88 billion) leaving the annual dividend cost uncovered by operating cash. So the decision to cancel the final dividend and reduce annual expenditure to an annual amount of £1 billion by next year looks logical and rational – and thus I would of thought, encouraging to markets and potential investors. 

Has Tesco Dave played a blinder?

2015-01-09 04:18:32

As Tesco (TSCO) shareholders celebrate the return of a share price that begins with a ‘2’ what should we think of the turnaround plan rolled out by the company’s newish CEO Dave Lewis?

Don't Rely on History – Move Back to the Future.

2015-01-07 02:06:42

Hello Share Streamers. While I am not totally dismissive of the chartists, I do have a few reservations about their ability to predict share success.

Supermarkets To Get Post Christmas Shake Up

2015-01-05 01:33:47

Christmas is over. On my weekly visit to supermarkets on Saturday both Morrisons (MRW) and Aldi were noticeably less busy. Morrisons in particular- about four weeks ago there were around double the number of shoppers in store. Huddersfield’s ‘nightlife’ was quieter on Saturday too, significantly. Some clubs didn’t even open.

I’m Dreaming of a Right Christmas for Tesco.

2014-12-22 02:50:12

Hello Share Babes. I don't know what I would have done without Tesco (TSCO) this Christmas. Well, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration. But it certainly beat most firms I've dealt with so far this Yuletide for super service.

In the market bloodbath…filtering the larger caps (part 2)

2014-12-19 06:19:35

Whilst  part 1 was a romp through a few larger cap stories with cost cutting as a core theme, part 2 is a bit more edgy.  Looking at 2015 it seems to me that there are two themes that really make investors nervous.  The first is growth and the second is underperformance.

Tesco – rounding off the annus horribilis

2014-12-09 10:48:17

I knew it was going to be bad news when I saw an unexpected Tesco (TSCO) trading update statement on the wires this morning.  This close to Christmas if you are a food retailer you keep your fingers crossed that the shoppers are going to eventually flood into your store unless – of course – the news was really, really different from guidance.  I guess the £1.4 billion trading profit indication qualifies on that behalf (I believe consensus UK trading profit guidance was nearer £1.8 billion).

Why I've Tempered my View on Tesco.

2014-11-28 01:34:35

Hello Share Shooters. When I said we might have another go at Tesco (TSCO) recently, there was a volley of opposition among the comments which followed. Hardly anybody agreed that it was worth giving the supermarket giant another chance.

Let's Go Tesco Again.

2014-11-24 01:59:40

Hello Share Punchers: Let me go out on a controversial limb and suggest you look at 95-year-old Tesco (TSCO) once more.

As the Toffs Get Richer - So do Share Shifters Like Us

2014-11-12 00:58:53

Hello Share Folk. Did you see the blockbuster programme on the telly this week that showed the wealthy getting richer and the poor not so?

Tesco at 171p: Does the new CEO have the mission statement attributes of a William Blake?

2014-10-24 09:07:27

The Tesco (TSCO interim results have proved to be such a large dog’s breakfast of awfulness, that it is hard to know where to begin in attempting to describe and understand the situation. 

Tesco – no improvement forever = today’s share price

2014-10-23 13:21:19

When you make a mistake the right thing to do is either fall on your sword and/or beg for forgiveness.  Of course you can try and brazen it out too but I am glad that the Tesco  (TSCO) Chairman has maintained a shred of dignity by expressing ‘profound regret’ at the accounting debacle that has enveloped the UK food business of the FTSE 100’s most struggling retailer.  Clearing the senior executive and non-executive deck clear looks a radical move but it is the only way to move on.  

Moody’s Predicts ‘Big Four’ supermarkets Will Continue to Lose Market Share

2014-10-20 11:57:58

Moody’s, the famous credit rating agency, predicts that Asda, Tesco (TSCO), Morrisons (MRW) and Sainsbury’s (SBRY) will continue to lose market share to the discounters Aldi and Lidl. The discounters’ share of the market currently stands at 8.3% and could reach 10% in a couple of years. Moody’s is basically predicting that the British market will become more like the European grocery sector, where margins are around 3 to 4% instead of the 5% that they used to be in Britain.

Financial Video Postcard #55 - earnings visibility and shares to buy issue

2014-10-19 13:20:13

After four weeks of stockmarket falls is it time to buy shares? Yes and No. In his video postcard this week Tom Winnifrith looks at earnings visibility, value investing, long term investing, Tesco (TSCO) and stocks to avoid. The Q word is not mentioned once!

Why I’m a Tesco Kid.

2014-10-10 07:32:42

Hello Share Casters. Tesco (TSCO) shares are under a cloud at the mo having toppled miserably on some questions about their figures. Even before that, the shares had fallen a long way, due to some not very successful operations abroad and a nasty supermarket price war here.

The Level & Type of Share Buybacks I see make me very worried

2014-10-04 08:32:35

In certain circumstances share buybacks make sense. Where a company has surplus capital and cannot think of a way of earning an economic return on that capital it is absolutely right that it is returned to shareholders via buybacks. I prefer them to special dividends because one can elect to sell less or no stock or to stay on board with a bigger percentage of the equity. It is down to the individual investor. And it is right that surplus capital should be returned to the company’s owners (shareholders) not simply be hoarded by management.

ShareProphets Reader Poll – Tesco – how much of a dog’s dinner?

2014-09-28 14:56:07

It is always the way with corporate scandals, the bad news just keeps bon coming. And so the weekend press makes dire reading for Tesco (TSCO). Prior year accounts may be restated, the Serious Fraud Office is bound to be involved and the useless non-exec chairman looks a worse bet to make it into the New Year than your average factory armed turkey. So what’s your take n Tesco shares. Do you think:

Gallumping Giants Can Be Just as Shaky.

2014-09-24 05:14:17

Just when I thought it was safe to get back into the Tesco  (TSCO) water, another big whammy hits the supermarket chain. The latest is, of course, a massive set-back.

Tesco at 203p: after news of overstated profits – a buy?

2014-09-23 07:15:57

News that Tesco (TSCO) had overstated its profits, prompting a near 12% collapse in the share price was good reason to caste the valuation measure over the shares at 203p. – last seen. I learnt from my A level English literature that the essence of tragedy – the real Greek kind – is to fall from a great height. That makes Tesco and its shares a real Greek tragedy! 

Tesco – accounting, new brooms and embarrassment

2014-09-22 09:10:40

As I am currently on the east coast of the United States it was an especially early ‘silly o’clock’ awakening this morning.  It was not the greatest start to the week however with Tesco (TSCO) unveiling the latest in a line of difficult market updates.  Here’s the crux of what it had to say:

Tesco – a buy after the profits warning?

2014-09-07 14:29:47

They say profits warnings come in Threes so is Tesco (TSCO) not a sell now? Chris Bailey reckons that it is a bargain basement buy and has made it the largest holding in his pension as you can see HERE. Clearly there are two points of view.

Things to Checkout when Visiting Supermarkets

2014-09-01 06:58:49

So supermarkets have been in the news a lot lately, with Tesco (TSCO) slashing its dividend by 75%. All of the supermarket shares took a battering on Friday, with worries that Tesco’s rivals could also cut their dividends. Just on an instinctive feel, I don’t think Sainsbury (SBRY) will cut its but I do feel it may be effected when Tesco start to cut prices- it will probably have to follow suit to an extent.

Why I made Tesco the largest holding in my pension fund this morning

2014-08-29 12:06:55

Last business day of the month.  Last day of a departing CEO’s corporate reign.  Last chance to ‘kitchen sink’ the corporate earnings guidance numbers in the UK’s largest food retailer? A share price back to the level of a decade ago and a 75% cut in the interim dividend does not make pretty headlines.

Tesco at 279p ‘cum’ a new finance director: a buy?

2014-07-12 07:13:27

The news that Alan Stewart was to depart Marks & Spencer (MKS) as it Finance Director saw the next day’s M&S share price increase a little. In the case of Tesco (TSCO) the price was down 1%.  Stewart has a tough job to do at Tesco but as one might imagine, logically - and from his new Tesco pay packet - that he is up to the job.

Tesco: Seeing the light, where's the tunnel?

2014-07-07 09:20:02

Gary Carp returns with a superb analysis of Tesco's future. 

It wasn’t meant to be like this. When Philip Clarke took over as Tesco boss, no one anticipated the pace of structural shift in shopper behaviours that is destabilising retail. Tesco was the most convenient and ambitious UK retailer; it was and still is number one. So why does it feel so dire? The harsh reality is almost every reason underpinning Tesco's last twenty years of success has been turned upside down and inside out. It is hard to see any light at the end of Tesco's tunnel.

Shopper Loyalty Part 3: The end of Tesco Clubcard?

2014-05-03 08:25:32

Will Tesco (TSCO) axe Clubcard? I know, it is an absurd suggestion. Having spent twenty years building a veritable industry of activity around it, how could Tesco possibly abandon its golden child? Unthinkable.

Shopper Loyalty: Membership Matters

2014-04-30 08:02:03

I am the world's worst golfer. After years of trying to play, the basic problem still haunts me: I stand too close to the ball after I have hit it. My golf bag sits forlornly in the corner, simpering, like a long-lost lover: "you never take me out any more!" she murmurs.

Amazon imagine..what does this mean for UK supermarkets‏

2014-04-25 06:30:27

Just imagine. Fast forward fifteen years. Imagine every rule and assumption you currently hold about retailers, manufacturers, brands and own labels being swept aside.  This new dawn is fast approaching.

Tesco: That David Moyes feeling...

2014-04-23 09:19:15

Manchester United's ten month disastrous flirtation with David Moyes is over. To many, he had been a "dead man walking" for months. Despite long-terms critics, like myself, incessantly calling for his head even before he was appointed, the prevailing mood among the faithful had been to tough it out.

Tesco at 288p, will the next figures make this a recovery play?

2014-04-22 06:43:57

The standard analysts’ question “where do we go from here?” is a great one to ask Tesco (TSCO); a share that must serve as part of the foundation of many a portfolio. However, before asking this question there is another that should probably be put first: “where have we been?” On a very long trend of downward valuation, is the flippant answer! However, analysis of the next set of results could provide clues as to whether this down trend can be reversed and Tesco’s shares start to regain some of their former glory.

New Tesco Emerging

2014-04-17 06:06:26

Tesco's preliminary results yesterday hold few surprises. The 6% fall in annual profits and 1.4% decline in like-for-like sales have been well trailed and the markets may even mark the stock up after recent pressure. The announcement and other news give a much stronger sense of Tesco tomorrow and join dots on previous Cheshunt comments.

Tesco’s long term decline is far from over

2014-04-16 11:58:52

Last month I wrote an article about the problems facing UK supermarkets, in particular the competition coming from the discounters like Lidl and Aldi. The big supermarkets don’t see them as a threat because  they say their business model is different. Yet when we look at the statistics the big four supermarkets are losing market share. I suspect this is due to a slowdown in consumer spending and as a result consumers are more likely to switch to the discounters.

Passover at Tesco

2014-04-14 11:49:32

Tonight, the Jewish festival of Passover commences. It is a festival of contrasts. Freedom and insecurity; enrichment and humility; arriving and departing all combine. Under the leadership of Moses, the Children of Israel move from being a discordant rabble into a people with national and geographic aspirations. But what does this have to do with Tesco (TSCO)?

Tesco: Time to reset the clock

2014-04-10 06:42:55

Yesterday's latest Kantar Worldpanel data brought little comfort for any of the UKs Big four retailers. The 0.4% drop in Sainsburys' (SBRY) share versus last quarter highlights Justin King's personal astuteness in calling time on his own leadership at just the right moment. His touch is almost as measured as was Sir Terry Leahy's departure from Tesco (TSC).

Tesco, Asda is coming for YOU!‏

2014-04-08 12:44:51

Asda, famous for EDLP (EveryDay Low Prices), launched the latest salvo in the UK grocery retail war; a new strategy called EDMP. Presented as part of a package of 12,000 jobs over the next five years. The underlying message was meant for Tesco (TSCO)...

Tesco: Big Data, Little Evidence

2014-04-05 08:58:47

If you didn’t catch the news yet, Tesco (TSCO) is now the world's 3rd biggest continent. Having bought US big data firm Sociomantic it now has access to a database of one billion shoppers making it almost as big as China or India.

Omni-Ominous – Tesco rings the changes in its store staffing

2014-04-01 10:59:22

According to The Grocer’s headline yesterday there is "Fury at plans to axe team leader roles" (March 30th) as Tesco (TSCO) are in discussions to remove an entire layer of in-store management. It looks a bold initiative. Yet it might be a straightforward call: if you have to choose, great store service requires action not oversight. 

Tesco: The New Whitbread?

2014-03-27 08:09:22

Whitbread PLC (WTB) is a multinational hotel, coffee shop and restaurant company. What does this have to do with Tesco (TSCO)? I’ll explain below.

They Came From the East - Alibaba, Yahoo & Tesco Compared

2014-03-26 08:18:41

The West in general and the UK in particular seem to believe that our Imperial pasts provide an eternal right to global leadership. Call it our collective colonialist conscience. So when Western retailers decided to retrace the journeys of our ancestors, we naturally expected them to always succeed. Perhaps.

Tesco and the Art of War

2014-03-12 14:13:47

Tesco’s (TSCO) world tour into Asia, the US, Europe, etc is in full-scale retreat with the Turkish operations’ restructure, the latest acceptance of failure. The non-crisis crisis in Tesco Polska will inevitably lead to divestment. If anyone was in doubt: the world tour is over. Tesco went big; they are now coming home.

Why A Company's Performance Isn't Good Enough -ref Tesco.

2014-02-26 07:38:46

Hello Share People: Always remember, gang, that the future means more than the past in life. And it is even more important in Shareland.

Tesco: Christmas trading and the eye of the storm.

2014-01-09 17:58:02

Today’s Christmas period trading statement from Tesco (TSCO) was pretty awful and worse than that from Sainsbury’s  (SBRY) yesterday. 

Tesco and the Charlie Chaplin effect

2013-10-05 03:21:20

How the Tesco (TSCO) share price, like Charlie, disappeared down a hole on publication of the interim results and then immediately popped out again: the “why?” and “what else?” of events. Conclusion: shares for buying and tucking away.

Tesco at 355p – heading for 400p?

2013-07-17 01:46:47

Tesco (TSCO) is a recovery play with a nice dividend yield whilst investors wait for recovery in the UK business from the knocks of the last year or so. The shares look very attractive on dividend yield grounds with a share price moving up after the recent decline. The chart suggests 400p as a rational target.   

Tesco: the reported figures are all rabbits and smoked looking mirrors

2013-04-24 15:07:48

I wonder that Lewis Carroll, the author of the books about Alice in Wonderland and Alice through the Looking Glass did not write on stock markets; the most surreal of all exchanges by price; where events seem to become contradictions of themselves before your very eyes and analysts and market “experts” rush past looking like white rabbits

Tesco: "Don't panic Captain Mainwaring!!"

2013-04-18 06:09:21

Stock markets are bewildering places. The day after Tesco (TSCO) posted appalling results for the year to 23 February 2013, its share price goes up?

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