Sunday 18 March 2018 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Two Pauls and a Nigel - learn value investing from the masters at UK Investor on April 21- today's offer
The February 2018 edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is now live: Nine share tips, giving in a tax-efficient way, don't count Trump out
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Capitalism in crisis and shamed at Conviviality, Deutsche Bank and across the board
Master Investor - the photos of a washout that asset stripper Jim Mellon is desperate you do not see
It was only yesterday on this site that I wrote: 'One of the hardest things for less experienced stock market participants to get their heads around is the expectations game. Numbers can be good (or bad) but if the teenage scribbler analyst, ‘professional’ fund managers and ‘the great unwashed’ in the form of other market participants broadly already think something, then confirmation of this event is not going to really change the share price needle. Of course as a consequence companies then start to try to become clever in managing expectations in order to 'beat' anticipated numbers...but that's for another time'. It is clear that Tesco (TSCO) either did not get the message or the animal spirits of those teenage scribbler analysts got the better of them…
Tesco (TSCO) shares are little changed today and progress or not over the next few weeks will be highly dependent on the infamous Christmas trading update of early January. I have no great tactical insights on this but I am hopeful it will be part of the strategic improvement and opportunity in the stock I noted a couple of months or so ago HERE. Certainly the share has shown a bit of form recently and this has been driven by improving sales metrics, hopes for the generation of enhanced margin and cashflows, lower debt...and the potential from the Booker (BOK) takeover. It is the latter which is in the news today.
Imagine the scene, if you will, on the trading desks of a professional investment house after Tesco (TSCO) just puckered up its interim results. Another quarter of like-for-like sales growth, free cash flow generation chivving down the debt burden, margin targets for later in the decade reiterated and - stone the crows! - the interim divvy is back. Fingers would be tapping away sending little messages to your favoured clients or internal portfolio managers. You can imagine what is written: “Tesco’s is back!”, one message might read. Another would undoubtedly exhort the reader to buy the stock.
Hello, Share Crackers. It happens nine times out of ten. A company announces much bigger profits in its half term results - and the share price crumbles. But no need for alarm, as the price usually recovers to strike north again within a few days. An enticing buying opportunity then? Which bring me to today’s tip.
Hello Share Crunchers. We have a little saying in our family. ‘There’s always something…’ Meaning, however well things seem to be going, there is invariably a major snag to contend with.
Hello Share Grapplers. It seems that two of the most popular shares being bought and sold by we great band of punters at the mo are Lloyds Group (LLOY) and Tesco (TSCO). I looked at Lloyds yesterday, reckoning it has the making of a good buy because of slow, if unspectacular, progress revealed in its last quarterly figures. I’ll turn to another well-traded share, Tesco, today.
I found out all about ‘Deferred Prosecution Agreements’ (DPAs) today as supermarket behemoth Tesco (TSCO) said it would spend £235 million to sort out 2014’s accounting scandal…and will not be prosecuted, naturally…
Hello Share Grinders. As I write this, I’m aware that wise Shareprophets commentator Wildrides will be sharpening his pencil to disagree. And I am not at all sure about supermarkets myself - though I still have shares in the big three home-grown ones. Looking at Morrison (MRW), Sainsbury (SBRY) and Tesco (TSCO), I think the last named is the most likely to bring us the most money from our owning the shares.
After being outed by Tom Winnifrith as a non-adherent to the Star Wars doctrine, I turn my thoughts to matters in our galaxy (not far away)…and the bevy of trading updates from supermarkets this week.
Hello Share Twiddlers. Tesco (TSCO) published its first-half figures this week and the shares rocketed by 12%. That pleased me as I still hold a load of its stock - though I wish I could get round to dumping it. You see, I’m not sure that the leap in share price was justified. Yes, revenues were up, but pre-tax profit was down (including a £200m foreign exchange loss).
So Tesco (TSCO) shares are flying today. Well that's great news as a shareholder. The move is justified as Dave Lewis ('Tesco Dave') is doing a solid job with his difficult aircraft carrier sized hand. Improving positive momentum in UK like-for-like sales, more engaged customers and an internal satisfaction survey that Tesco staff are feeling the love again. That's a couple of boxes ticked on the 'to do' list. Other parts of the business like the global operations and the Tesco Personal Finance crunch along in a workable manner.
The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has today charged three individuals, Carl Rogberg, 49, Christopher Bush, 50, and John Scouler, 48, with one count of Fraud by Abuse of Position, contrary to section 1 and 4 of the Fraud Act 2006 and one count of False Accounting contrary to s17 Theft Act 1968. These are the first charges brought against folks at Tesco (TSCO) for cooking its books. The timescale is fascinating for those interested in the fate of Rob Terry and the other Quenron fraudsters...
My Tesco series continues as we take a quick look at the Q1 results issued on Thursday, and check the market share trends for signs of stabilisation.
In all the excitement over the European referendum, Tesco has continued to plug away on the recovery track and has possibly been overlooked. News flow has been steady and has positive.
Friday saw confirmation from Tesco (TSCO) of two divestments which were anticipated to be in the works. The first is a proposed sale for cash of £30 million, while the second is the intention to sell (price not yet given). The news signals continued efforts to manage the company’s debt pile and the scale of its ambitions. Let’s take a look.
Hello Share Surfers. The old Footsie fell 2.5% on a day which began rather well. Why? Well, according to the media, the European Central Bank 'failed to deliver on market expectations for an increase in monthly asset purchases.’
Hello Share Shunters. Well, I’m having a terrible week. My new bed from Tesco (TSCO) arrived with a vital part missing. Then the Internet connection to my new home in York failed to work. And then...oh, never mind let’s look at Tesco.
Which of the following do you believe is more important as a guide to Tesco’s (TSCO) corporate well-being?
Hello Share Twiddlers. I hold shares in Tesco (TSCO). I have written before on this lip-smacking site in anticipation of a big recovery after disastrous figures. But now I am not so sure.
Well hello again a 225p Tesco (TSCO) share price. Friday’s trading update still has plenty of grim headline news contained within it (-1.3% UK like-for-like sales performance and a general food retail market that is ‘still challenging and volatility is likely to remain a feature of short-term performance’) but Tesco shares had a better day.
It is perhaps just as well that my remit at Shareprophets is largely focused on the technical side, as it can be said for Tesco’s (TSCO) fundamentals that despite Dave”Drastic” Lewis attempts to turn this situation around, it is difficult to see a happy ending here.
It might be a heavy corporate earnings results day around the world but for tomorrow’s business pages the lead story is already obvious following the disclosure earlier by Tesco (TSCO) that it lost a cool £6.4 billion in the last full financial year.
I note that I reviewed Tesco (TSCO) shares in January when they had sunk to 180p. It was a fairly full note and most of the argument it included still informs any appraisal of Tesco shares even if they have climbed 32% since then. I took a long term positive view on the shares and see that the market has compressed that long term into a matter weeks.
Hello Share Twisters. I opined a few weeks ago that the best course, given the disastrous fall of oil and mining companies, is to focus on firms which don't sell the black stuff or minerals.
I suggested here some time ago, that the Tesco (TSCO) dividend payout looked vulnerable, so news that the company will not be paying a final dividend is not surprising. Last year to February 28 2014, the company reported £2.8 billion of operating cash, most of which went in to capital expenditure (£2.88 billion) leaving the annual dividend cost uncovered by operating cash. So the decision to cancel the final dividend and reduce annual expenditure to an annual amount of £1 billion by next year looks logical and rational – and thus I would of thought, encouraging to markets and potential investors.
As Tesco (TSCO) shareholders celebrate the return of a share price that begins with a ‘2’ what should we think of the turnaround plan rolled out by the company’s newish CEO Dave Lewis?
Hello Share Streamers. While I am not totally dismissive of the chartists, I do have a few reservations about their ability to predict share success.
Christmas is over. On my weekly visit to supermarkets on Saturday both Morrisons (MRW) and Aldi were noticeably less busy. Morrisons in particular- about four weeks ago there were around double the number of shoppers in store. Huddersfield’s ‘nightlife’ was quieter on Saturday too, significantly. Some clubs didn’t even open.
Hello Share Babes. I don't know what I would have done without Tesco (TSCO) this Christmas. Well, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration. But it certainly beat most firms I've dealt with so far this Yuletide for super service.
Whilst part 1 was a romp through a few larger cap stories with cost cutting as a core theme, part 2 is a bit more edgy. Looking at 2015 it seems to me that there are two themes that really make investors nervous. The first is growth and the second is underperformance.
I knew it was going to be bad news when I saw an unexpected Tesco (TSCO) trading update statement on the wires this morning. This close to Christmas if you are a food retailer you keep your fingers crossed that the shoppers are going to eventually flood into your store unless – of course – the news was really, really different from guidance. I guess the £1.4 billion trading profit indication qualifies on that behalf (I believe consensus UK trading profit guidance was nearer £1.8 billion).
Hello Share Shooters. When I said we might have another go at Tesco (TSCO) recently, there was a volley of opposition among the comments which followed. Hardly anybody agreed that it was worth giving the supermarket giant another chance.
Hello Share Punchers: Let me go out on a controversial limb and suggest you look at 95-year-old Tesco (TSCO) once more.
Hello Share Folk. Did you see the blockbuster programme on the telly this week that showed the wealthy getting richer and the poor not so?
The Tesco (TSCO interim results have proved to be such a large dog’s breakfast of awfulness, that it is hard to know where to begin in attempting to describe and understand the situation.
When you make a mistake the right thing to do is either fall on your sword and/or beg for forgiveness. Of course you can try and brazen it out too but I am glad that the Tesco (TSCO) Chairman has maintained a shred of dignity by expressing ‘profound regret’ at the accounting debacle that has enveloped the UK food business of the FTSE 100’s most struggling retailer. Clearing the senior executive and non-executive deck clear looks a radical move but it is the only way to move on.
Moody’s, the famous credit rating agency, predicts that Asda, Tesco (TSCO), Morrisons (MRW) and Sainsbury’s (SBRY) will continue to lose market share to the discounters Aldi and Lidl. The discounters’ share of the market currently stands at 8.3% and could reach 10% in a couple of years. Moody’s is basically predicting that the British market will become more like the European grocery sector, where margins are around 3 to 4% instead of the 5% that they used to be in Britain.
After four weeks of stockmarket falls is it time to buy shares? Yes and No. In his video postcard this week Tom Winnifrith looks at earnings visibility, value investing, long term investing, Tesco (TSCO) and stocks to avoid. The Q word is not mentioned once!
Hello Share Casters. Tesco (TSCO) shares are under a cloud at the mo having toppled miserably on some questions about their figures. Even before that, the shares had fallen a long way, due to some not very successful operations abroad and a nasty supermarket price war here.
In certain circumstances share buybacks make sense. Where a company has surplus capital and cannot think of a way of earning an economic return on that capital it is absolutely right that it is returned to shareholders via buybacks. I prefer them to special dividends because one can elect to sell less or no stock or to stay on board with a bigger percentage of the equity. It is down to the individual investor. And it is right that surplus capital should be returned to the company’s owners (shareholders) not simply be hoarded by management.
It is always the way with corporate scandals, the bad news just keeps bon coming. And so the weekend press makes dire reading for Tesco (TSCO). Prior year accounts may be restated, the Serious Fraud Office is bound to be involved and the useless non-exec chairman looks a worse bet to make it into the New Year than your average factory armed turkey. So what’s your take n Tesco shares. Do you think:
Just when I thought it was safe to get back into the Tesco (TSCO) water, another big whammy hits the supermarket chain. The latest is, of course, a massive set-back.
News that Tesco (TSCO) had overstated its profits, prompting a near 12% collapse in the share price was good reason to caste the valuation measure over the shares at 203p. – last seen. I learnt from my A level English literature that the essence of tragedy – the real Greek kind – is to fall from a great height. That makes Tesco and its shares a real Greek tragedy!
As I am currently on the east coast of the United States it was an especially early ‘silly o’clock’ awakening this morning. It was not the greatest start to the week however with Tesco (TSCO) unveiling the latest in a line of difficult market updates. Here’s the crux of what it had to say:
They say profits warnings come in Threes so is Tesco (TSCO) not a sell now? Chris Bailey reckons that it is a bargain basement buy and has made it the largest holding in his pension as you can see HERE. Clearly there are two points of view.
So supermarkets have been in the news a lot lately, with Tesco (TSCO) slashing its dividend by 75%. All of the supermarket shares took a battering on Friday, with worries that Tesco’s rivals could also cut their dividends. Just on an instinctive feel, I don’t think Sainsbury (SBRY) will cut its but I do feel it may be effected when Tesco start to cut prices- it will probably have to follow suit to an extent.
Last business day of the month. Last day of a departing CEO’s corporate reign. Last chance to ‘kitchen sink’ the corporate earnings guidance numbers in the UK’s largest food retailer? A share price back to the level of a decade ago and a 75% cut in the interim dividend does not make pretty headlines.
The news that Alan Stewart was to depart Marks & Spencer (MKS) as it Finance Director saw the next day’s M&S share price increase a little. In the case of Tesco (TSCO) the price was down 1%. Stewart has a tough job to do at Tesco but as one might imagine, logically - and from his new Tesco pay packet - that he is up to the job.
Gary Carp returns with a superb analysis of Tesco's future.
It wasn’t meant to be like this. When Philip Clarke took over as Tesco boss, no one anticipated the pace of structural shift in shopper behaviours that is destabilising retail. Tesco was the most convenient and ambitious UK retailer; it was and still is number one. So why does it feel so dire? The harsh reality is almost every reason underpinning Tesco's last twenty years of success has been turned upside down and inside out. It is hard to see any light at the end of Tesco's tunnel.
Will Tesco (TSCO) axe Clubcard? I know, it is an absurd suggestion. Having spent twenty years building a veritable industry of activity around it, how could Tesco possibly abandon its golden child? Unthinkable.
I am the world's worst golfer. After years of trying to play, the basic problem still haunts me: I stand too close to the ball after I have hit it. My golf bag sits forlornly in the corner, simpering, like a long-lost lover: "you never take me out any more!" she murmurs.
Just imagine. Fast forward fifteen years. Imagine every rule and assumption you currently hold about retailers, manufacturers, brands and own labels being swept aside. This new dawn is fast approaching.
Manchester United's ten month disastrous flirtation with David Moyes is over. To many, he had been a "dead man walking" for months. Despite long-terms critics, like myself, incessantly calling for his head even before he was appointed, the prevailing mood among the faithful had been to tough it out.
The standard analysts’ question “where do we go from here?” is a great one to ask Tesco (TSCO); a share that must serve as part of the foundation of many a portfolio. However, before asking this question there is another that should probably be put first: “where have we been?” On a very long trend of downward valuation, is the flippant answer! However, analysis of the next set of results could provide clues as to whether this down trend can be reversed and Tesco’s shares start to regain some of their former glory.
Tesco's preliminary results yesterday hold few surprises. The 6% fall in annual profits and 1.4% decline in like-for-like sales have been well trailed and the markets may even mark the stock up after recent pressure. The announcement and other news give a much stronger sense of Tesco tomorrow and join dots on previous Cheshunt comments.
Last month I wrote an article about the problems facing UK supermarkets, in particular the competition coming from the discounters like Lidl and Aldi. The big supermarkets don’t see them as a threat because they say their business model is different. Yet when we look at the statistics the big four supermarkets are losing market share. I suspect this is due to a slowdown in consumer spending and as a result consumers are more likely to switch to the discounters.
Tonight, the Jewish festival of Passover commences. It is a festival of contrasts. Freedom and insecurity; enrichment and humility; arriving and departing all combine. Under the leadership of Moses, the Children of Israel move from being a discordant rabble into a people with national and geographic aspirations. But what does this have to do with Tesco (TSCO)?
Yesterday's latest Kantar Worldpanel data brought little comfort for any of the UKs Big four retailers. The 0.4% drop in Sainsburys' (SBRY) share versus last quarter highlights Justin King's personal astuteness in calling time on his own leadership at just the right moment. His touch is almost as measured as was Sir Terry Leahy's departure from Tesco (TSC).
Asda, famous for EDLP (EveryDay Low Prices), launched the latest salvo in the UK grocery retail war; a new strategy called EDMP. Presented as part of a package of 12,000 jobs over the next five years. The underlying message was meant for Tesco (TSCO)...
If you didn’t catch the news yet, Tesco (TSCO) is now the world's 3rd biggest continent. Having bought US big data firm Sociomantic it now has access to a database of one billion shoppers making it almost as big as China or India.
According to The Grocer’s headline yesterday there is "Fury at plans to axe team leader roles" (March 30th) as Tesco (TSCO) are in discussions to remove an entire layer of in-store management. It looks a bold initiative. Yet it might be a straightforward call: if you have to choose, great store service requires action not oversight.
Whitbread PLC (WTB) is a multinational hotel, coffee shop and restaurant company. What does this have to do with Tesco (TSCO)? I’ll explain below.
The West in general and the UK in particular seem to believe that our Imperial pasts provide an eternal right to global leadership. Call it our collective colonialist conscience. So when Western retailers decided to retrace the journeys of our ancestors, we naturally expected them to always succeed. Perhaps.
Tesco’s (TSCO) world tour into Asia, the US, Europe, etc is in full-scale retreat with the Turkish operations’ restructure, the latest acceptance of failure. The non-crisis crisis in Tesco Polska will inevitably lead to divestment. If anyone was in doubt: the world tour is over. Tesco went big; they are now coming home.
Hello Share People: Always remember, gang, that the future means more than the past in life. And it is even more important in Shareland.
Today’s Christmas period trading statement from Tesco (TSCO) was pretty awful and worse than that from Sainsbury’s (SBRY) yesterday.
How the Tesco (TSCO) share price, like Charlie, disappeared down a hole on publication of the interim results and then immediately popped out again: the “why?” and “what else?” of events. Conclusion: shares for buying and tucking away.
Tesco (TSCO) is a recovery play with a nice dividend yield whilst investors wait for recovery in the UK business from the knocks of the last year or so. The shares look very attractive on dividend yield grounds with a share price moving up after the recent decline. The chart suggests 400p as a rational target.
I wonder that Lewis Carroll, the author of the books about Alice in Wonderland and Alice through the Looking Glass did not write on stock markets; the most surreal of all exchanges by price; where events seem to become contradictions of themselves before your very eyes and analysts and market “experts” rush past looking like white rabbits
Stock markets are bewildering places. The day after Tesco (TSCO) posted appalling results for the year to 23 February 2013, its share price goes up?
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