Wednesday 23 January 2019 | ShareProphets: The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
I told you that Metro Bank was dodgy...and that you shouldn't underestimate Burberry's Chinese chavs!
Oops a daisy. It looks as if some folks in the City have finally been reading our exposes on First Derivatives (FDP) and are finally waking up to the issues of cash generation, or rather lack of it. Top broker Berenberg was a major bull but has slashed its target price, as you can see in the full note below, from £43 to just £21. Welcome to the party fellows but you are still way too generous – fair value is well under £10 a share.
Given that its IPO prospectus was fraudulent and how its earnings have been materially overstated in recent years as demonstrated here, only the sort of moron who would back the fraud Globo to the hilt would still be owning shares in First Derivatives (FDP). They are an outstanding short at 2125p. But now lets look at kX and something that might just blow up First early in the new year.
As you may be aware, the accounting watchdog, the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) is a great admirer of the work of The Sheriff of AIM. And always keen to give my good friends a pointer, I have today submitted a formal request to investigate the last three year’s accounts of First Derivatives (FDP). The issue is whether stated earnings represent the underlying picture. My letter, below, is to the point.
Reading the interims of First Derivatives (FDP), purveyors of smoke and mirrors to the gullible analyst community, the questions continue to stack up.
As I write, shares in First Derivatives (FDP) the company floated via a fraudulent IPO and which has overstated its earnings by c50% for each of the past three years, are surging. Interims have gone down well and the stock is up 160p ( c5%) at £34.10. But hang on Henry… here are 11 points you may wish to consider before buying
It could be that the current market turbulence is no more than an entry point for easily the most successful investment strategy of the last ten years: BTFD (Buy the Fucking dips) but I sense that this time we might be about to discover who has been swimming without trunks.
Anyone still owning shares in First Derivatives (FDP) after our string of revelations culminating in today's uber-aggressive mega-earnings flattering accounting policies HERE, is bonkers. Well it never rains but it pours...
A few days ago I showed hard evidence that the 2002 IPO of First Derivatives (FDP) was based on false earnings. That was dismissed by supporters as being so long ago that it did not matter. It does! But how about we move to the issue of whether reported earnings in the past three years are "real" or cooked up. I suggest it may well be the latter in which case the stock is going to tank at some stage, soon, when investors realise this. Let me explain...
We pointed out numerous red flags at Globo (GBO) for two years before finally sinking the fraud by publishing Gabriel Grego’s dynamite dossier but some folks knew better. In the fund management community the fraud’s biggest supporter was Harry Nimmo of Standard Life whose fund (other folks cash) were on the register to the bitter end. Harry was a true Globo believer. Now he has weighed into bat for First Derivatives (FDP) which has also, arguably, committed fraud as we revealed HERE.
I doubt that there was the slightest sense of embarrassment at last week’s AIM awards (a ghastly sounding knees up for the world’s seediest stock market) when First Derivatives (FDP) picked up two gongs: Best Technology award for the company itself and Entrepreneur of the Year Award for its founder and CEO Brian Conlon. Presumably these awards were decided well before First’s price tanked amid some serious concerns being raised and the organisers, in true AIM style, were too gormless to think on their feet and give them out to a less dodgy enterprise.
Okay this is not a slam dunk pig and pork like the one that enabled the really dodgy IPO handled by bent broker JM Finn, bit it seems that every "deal" announced by First Derivatives (FDP) now has to be examined to see if it is what it purports to be. Following on from the “contract win” with Red Bull Racing, which appears to be more akin to a sponsorship deal, another “contract win”, which should bear much closer scrutiny is the one with NASA.
I cannot remember the last time a Northern Ireland player scored a hat-trick in an international. But tonight I am hopeful that Belfast’s finest, First Derivatives (FDP), will pick up three gongs at the annual AIM Awards crony capitalists bean-feast and do the six counties proud. Heading the charge is CEO Brian Conlon who is short-listed for “entrepreneur of the year” sponsored by Octopus Investments. The Judges will have ruled on that before we pointed out that his whole IPO was based on a fraud. It gets better…
In a weekend bearcast I flagged up that the real issue with First Derivatives (FDP) is that its core business is a rotten generator of cash. And that – as well as the fraudulent IPO and dodgy related party deals is why the shares ( off again this morning to £28.35) remain massively overvalued. So what do you do if you are set to report dire free cashflows? Natch turn to the Sam Antar playbook – meet 1010 Data
While readers reflect upon the various related party transactions undertaken by First Derivatives (FDP) over the years, see HERE and HERE, and in anticipation of further revelations to come do the smart thing and SELL, it seems an opportune moment to consider more recent “contract wins”.
The related party deal exposed HERE on Saturday that helped First Derivatives (FDP) to list via crooked broker JM Finn should have made any sane investor run for the hills. But for insane investors still on board there are more whiffy deals to examine. So here is number two...
Matt Earl has already done valuable work on First Derivatives (FDP). But is there a smoking gun? Let's rewind sixteen years...2002 was a tough year to launch a tech IPO.
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2017 and thus far in 2018 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
The September letter from Matt Earl to investors in his Shadowfall fund has found its way, via Winnileaks, into my possession. I gather Matt does not want it published but Winnileaks works both way Mr DD! I had a pop at First Derivatives (FDP) myself back in June despite it hailing from God's chosen lands of Ulster, as you can see HERE. Matt goes into far more detail in the 47 page document you can see below.
I am the last person to berate the fine folks from my family’s ancestral homelands of the Kingdom of Ulster or indeed the modern day province. SUFTUM is what I say as I wake up every morning to retweet - with my own comments - @onthisdayPira . But some communities are just perhaps just too tightly knit, too cosy. I refer to the accounting arrangements of First Derivatives (FDP).
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