Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Matthew's Dog will be on cloud nine as I am so angry with Nigel, the corrupt Sunday Times and with MyHealthChecked
As readers will know I was a big fan of AIM-listed biotech Scancell (SCLP) but lost my patience with what appeared to be an attempt to jump on the Covid bandwagon. Well blow me down, for today the shares have doubled to 28.25p at peak this morning. What’s going on (apart from me looking like a prize chump)?
There was bad news this morning from AIM-listed cancer-buster Scancell (SCLP): Cancer Research UK has pulled out of a funding deal to put Scancell’s second SCIB product through Phase I/II trials.
I have documented over many years what a rotten investment Scancell (SCLP) has been but its spoofing on its quest for a Covid vaccine is one of the biggest red flags fluttering. Today it plunged new depths of spoofery as it announced a collaboration with Cobra Biologics “for Cobra to manufacture Scancell's COVID-19 vaccine.” Great, except that…
Having previously bravely (or perhaps stupidly) held on to my bullish beliefs in AIM-listed Scancell (SCLP), I finally threw in the towel last week after what appeared to be an attempted ramp by jumping on the Covid-19 bandwagon. I said sell – and it appears it was not just me looking to get out...
One of my first ever tips for ShareProphets was AIM-listed Scancell (SCLP), way back in the 2015 New Year tipfest. It has not covered me in glory, having tipped it when it was hanging around the 23-33p mark as the shares closed last night at around 5p. I had hoped that it would turn itself around and its biotech business would find a willing buyer in the end. But today the shares are up buy a thumping 46% (last seen) on news of Development of vaccine against Covid-19. Should I be celebrating? I’m not so sure….
Pharmaceuticals isn’t a sector that I generally tend to invest in, other than possibly for the dividends paid by some of the huge multinational companies.
AIM-listed immunotherapy cancer specialist Scancell (SCLP) announced last week that the FDA had posed a few questions regarding its application to run a Phase II combination trial for its SCIB-1 skin cancer compound alongside a checkpoint inhibitor. The market saw this as bad news, and marked the shares down heavily – but I’m not so sure it is all that serious.
My old (and terrible) tip from the 2015 New Year of AIM-listed Scancell (SCLP) has announced a placing. And there I was thinking that things were finally turning around, with the shares back up to 17.5p. The 12p placing and open offer is, on the face of it, at a huge discount of 31%. No doubt broker Panmure Gordon will rise to the incredibly difficult task of placing the shares out and earning its commission.
I admit it: this has been a very poor tip, dating way back to the ShareProphets Christmas/New Year tipfest at the end of 2014 when I offered AIM-listed Scancell (SCLP) at 31.75p. Much of what I was looking for came to pass - apart, that is, from an offer for the company or one of its cancer-busting platforms. And a few things went wrong.
AIM-listed cancer-buster Scancell (SCLP) announced on Friday that its seven-year-old supply of SCIB-1 vaccine trial doses has had to be withdrawn as the product is no longer within the original specification: it has degraded. The formal trial ended last year, but eight patients elected to continue the treatment which has had to come to an abrupt halt until a new batch is manufactured (about 9-12 months). Bad news, but perhaps not as bad as it might seem.
Well this is very annoying, and a result of new rules brought to the EIS scheme. I’m sure that AIM-listed Scancell would have much preferred that it were not the case, but it seems that EIS reliefs can only be applied for by investors who had previously bought EIS-qualifying shares and are now looking to take up their Open Offer entitlements.
It has been too long since I revisited AIM-listed biotech Scancell (SCLP). Much has happened since I picked it as a share for 2015 but it is egg-on-face as the shares have more than halved, with (so far) no value-enhancing corporate deal on the table. The clinical trial on the company’s lead product, SCIB-1, is done but there have been funding questions – correctly called by Tom Winnifrith. Now we have an EIS-qualifying open offer on the table alongside a placing, with some detail of plans going forward. Still holding my shares, the question is what to do?
Scancell (SCLP) has today issued results for the six months to 31 October 2015 which is jam packed with scientific waffle which is - I am sure - all terribly exciting and might get some Bulletin Board Morons buying the stock. That would help as the hard numbers on cash don't lie. It is placing ahoy, Scancell cannot dodge this bullet forever.
Corrected version: Scancell (SCLP) today served up news of a fairly orderly chairman succession but the mystery is of the dog that barked in the night. Yes, it did not. I refer to the apparent lapse of millions of incredibly in the money share options over Christmas.
It is clear that for most of 2015, the experience for traders on the long side of Scancell Holdings has not been a happy one.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at shares in IQE (IQE), Prospex Oil & Gas (PXOG) and Scancell Holdings (SCLP) setting share price targets for all three stocks.
Back on August 28 2015 I reported that Scancell (SCLP) wanted to do a placing after its results the following week. Some of the quite deranged followers of this company took it rather badly but as the shares slipped talk of a placing abated. I stood by my assertion that Scancell wanted to place and that its balance sheet was indicative of a company that would place. Hmmm.
AIM-listed biotech play Scancell (SCLP) released its results to April 2015 on Friday morning, along with some further tit-bits from its ongoing Phase I/II clinical trial testing its lead SCIB-1 treatment for melanoma. Since my original write-up on this company (HERE) there have been a few refinements, but the investment proposition is essentially the same as ever: if the product gets through the regulatory drug trial process unscathed then Scancell should be worth a healthy multiple of its current market capitalisation.
Shares in much ramped AIM listed biotech Scancell (SCLP) now trade at 28-30.5p valuing it at a stonking £65 million. But the balance sheet is painfully thin and the word is that there is a placing on the way at a big discount.
As expected, Scancell Holdings (SCLP) delivered an RNS update on its ongoing Phase I/II SCIB-1 drug trials yesterday morning, following its presentation on Monday at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting in Chicago. The meeting itself has generated plenty of headlines, with lots of froth about a new cure for cancer from immunotherapy – the space in which Scancell operates: SCIB-1 is a treatment for melanoma. So what of the new data?
Just a brief piece, as I expect an RNS imminently and will comment in more detail once it is out. Shares in Scancell Holdings (SCLP) have spiked somewhat over the past couple of trading sessions and now sit at 41p last seen (having been as high as almost 45p). Having dipped down below 25p at the beginning of April and even just a few days ago having been 30p this is quite a jump.
Having put forward Scancell plc (SCLP) as my first suggestion in the ShareProphets new year tipfest HERE I had a chat with joint CEO Dr Richard Goodfellow following a clinical trials update RNS HERE .
Scancell (SCLP) is a biotech stock I’ve been keen on for some four or five years. The statistics on getting new treatments through clinical trials and regulatory approvals are terrible, so we are certainly at the high-risk end of the spectrum, but I believe the risk/reward is favourable and I like the company, management, the way it behaves (important!) and the products currently being developed. Here is why.
The other day Scancell (SCLP) saw its market value halve as it announced a conditional Firm Placing of 20,000,000 new Ordinary Shares at 22.5 pence each to raise gross funds of approximately £4.5 million. Its new backers are various EIS and VCT funds managed by Calculus Capital. In addition, and in order to provide Qualifying Shareholders with an opportunity to subscribe for new Ordinary Shares at the same price, the Company announced an Open Offer to raise up to a further £2.0 million (before expenses).
As you might imagine, it is difficult not to have favourites amongst the dozens of stocks and markets you may be looking at from a technical perspective at any one time. In the recent past, the stock that delivered everything promised was Tethys Petroleum (TPL), as a break of 50p targeted 65p, and this was duly hit within a few days. As far as Scancell is concerned, it would appear that we have an almost identical charting setup here.
Once again with a minnow stock we are looking to see when the second leg of a near vertical spike some months ago will resume. In the case of Scancell it would appear that such a move is imminent given that there have already been more than eight months of consolidation of a move from under 10p to over 60p in the June to October 2012 period.
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