Articles by: LUCIAN MIERS

EPIC TUI
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TUI may be flying but it is still a short

Shares in TUI (TUI) have risen around 35% since December when it announced that it intends to pay back the German Government the expensive emergency funding it secured during the pandemic and there has been general relief amongst investors in the travel space ( and with travellers themselves) that normality has returned. So it is worthwhile examining whether the bear case is still intact.
  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2023-01-22 13:37:22
EPIC
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AMC Entertainment – I have become an APE

As most people know, AMC Entertainment (NYSE - AMC), the US based cinema chain, would be bankrupt now (like its rival Cineworld) but for its status for the last couple of years as a meme stock which has allowed CEO Adam Aron to issue stock like confetti to the self-proclaimed Apes and keep the creditors at bay.
  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2022-12-29 16:44:59
EPIC VCP
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Victoria plc – The Signs are There!

I have just finished reading Tim Steer’s excellent book, The Signs Were There (The clues for investors that a company is heading for a fall), which I thoroughly recommend. It contains chapters on many old favourites such as Connaught, Quindell/Slater & Gordon, Autonomy, Carillion and the Woodford Equity Income Fund. I hope that the book will be updated in the near future, and when it is I fully expect a chapter on Victoria plc (VCP).
  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2022-12-13 14:34:59
EPIC
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Thoughts on the FTX scandal and a Short idea from one of the few to emerge from it with credit

Back in May I became mildly obsessed by Sam Bankman Fried (aka SBF), now a household name as the new Bernie Madoff. This was after I read a feature on him in the weekend FT, in its Lunch with the FT column in which celebrities from all walks of life who are newsworthy at time are interviewed over a meal at the FT’s expense. The Silicon Valley tech geeks in this series tend to order the most repulsive woke food and talk the most bullshit and generally be the most dislikeable but SBF really took the biscuit in this regard, and I spent several hours trying to find a way to short anything to do with him, unfortunately with no result. Since the implosion of FTX I have been addicted to following this lurid story and all students of fraud should spend time on this case study of folly, greed and incompetance. It has everything (certainly sex and drugs and maybe even rock and roll) and gives out a great many examples as to the crazy environment that we have been living in for so long.

  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2022-11-29 16:47:50
EPIC
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Beyond Meat is Beyond Redemption.

Before the market meltup, shares in Beyond Meat (BYND) closed at an all-time low of $11.90 on Wednesday night after releasing a disastrous Q3 earnings report. Is this a chance to buy into the BBC's favourite Nasdaq stock? No! Au contraire.

  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2022-11-12 13:35:02
EPIC ARB
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Kicking two men who are down

In my experience it is often better to short a company’s shares when they have already fallen sharply and it has indicated that its equity is worthless. After all, the upside for a short that goes to zero is 100% whether you open it at 100p or 10p.

  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2022-11-06 17:59:56
EPIC RTN
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Restaurant Group: My 2022 Short Tip (as a sell) Update.

While there is disagreement among the investment experts about whether inflation, stagflation or outright recessionary deflation is on the horizon, there seems to be a consensus that times are going to be tough for a the rest of this year and 2023.

  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2022-09-25 10:18:18
EPIC VCP
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Gyrations at Victoria Carpets

Two weeks ago today at Sharestock, I spoke about Victoria Carpets Plc  (VCP) and outlined the reasons why I thought it still had the makings of a good short, despite its fall from £12 in January when I last wrote on it. Although the stock closed yesterday at just 427p, the share price gyrations of the past fortnight underline why I stated that right now might not be  a great time to open the short. The shares raced ahead post Sharestock but are now 53p below the share price then.

  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2022-09-24 17:11:38
EPIC BOOM
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Versarien and Audioboom: Some Thoughts and they are bearish

By my rough calculations the second of Versarien’s (VRS) disastrously expensive death spirals struck with Landstead has come to an end. The good news is that this prevents roughly 25,000 shares being dumped in the market every day. The bad news is that Versarien no longer receives around £100,000 a month from Lanstead. It’s also bad news for the unnamed “agent” who has been trousering a 2.5% cut of the money!

  • By Lucian Miers
  • 2022-08-27 09:43:01
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