Until late 2019 shorting shares in Fevertree (FEVR) was an extremely unsuccessful strategy. Its has been a great British success story: a powerful global brand that in twenty years has conquered all before it with superb marketing of a great product.
In response to some dynamite exposes on Shareprophets about Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited (COPL), the company released a bizarre RNS in which the sole executive, Arthur Millholland, dismissed his critics, mainly Tom Winnifrith, as snake oil salesmen and expressed “renewed confidence” about the future. Pots and kettles spring to mind here when Millholland’s track record is taken into consideration.
As Q1 limps to a close, it is difficult to see clearly through the fog of war. Mindful, doubtless, of the Covid aftermath - which bottomed almost exactly two years ago and led to a spectacular rally in stocks - investors have returned, and the sell-off seems to have petered out.
Given the hysteria surrounding the situation in Ukraine over the weekend, the falls in Western-listed Russian names were relatively muted with most being down low single digit percentages on Monday. The exception to this appeared to be FTSE 100 constituent Evraz plc (EVR), the steel producer and coal miner with major operations in Russia and Ukraine. The stock which had closed on Friday at 444p opened at 285p, showing a decline of 159p or 35%. The press was quick to latch on to this “carnage”:
These shares are already lower since this article first appeared on the N50 website just yesterday but they look to have much further to fall as, at last, it seems that we might have reached a point where equity fund managers, suddenly fearful rather than greedy, are taking a look at their portfolios to have a closer look at exactly what they hold.
Between Boxing Day and January 3 all of our writers will be serving up their share tips of the year for 2022 - and now a new occassional contributor has stepped up to the plate so that will be 24 tips. Twenty second in our series is a SELL from Lucian Miers. Over to the Bard of the Boleyn...
Between Boxing Day and January 3 all of our writers will be serving up their share tips of the year for 2022 - and now a new occassional contributor has stepped up to the plate so that will be 24 tips. Fifteenth in our series is a Sell from Lucian Miers. Over to the Bard of the Boleyn...
Last week I suggested that it might be time to look at shorting some names in the US as it seemed that the markets were at last showing some signs of fatigue. Since then the indices have risen, lead by a small group of mega caps not least Apple which made the 3 trillion mark for the first time. Under the surface however there has been a fair amount of turbulence, with meme stocks Gamestop and AMC being particularly hit and even the posterchild of insanity which is Tesla remaining under pressure. Not even Bitcoin has been spared. I stated that, as was the case in the dotcom reckoning in 2000, many companies will lose 90% of their value with a fair few going all the way, and I firmly believe that the reality check for this bubble is not far away.
Although the S&P 500 index is still around all time highs, there have been some savage declines of late in certain names and 275 stocks are lower now than they were six months ago. This suggests to me that the health of the US markets is much more fragile and precarious than the level of the three main indices implies.
Until recently the playbook for activist short sellers was relatively straightforward. You spend a lot of time and money researching your target. You write a punchy report explaining your thesis in a manner designed to persuade even the most mentally challenged fund manager that they are holding a ticking bomb. You release your report at a time of your choosing and in the resulting share price fall you maybe take a bit off the table to cover your costs. If the report is well researched, accurate, and compelling, it is a reasonable and, in my view, perfectly respectable way of making a living which is beneficial to the integrity of the market in an age where regulators and enforcement agencies are greatly enfeebled.
