No doubt this will be celebrated by many a moron as well as many a fraudster. Gabriel’s latest dossier is on Cassava (SAVA) on Nasdaq. It is compelling yet he has today been flamed by the Reddit crowd and Cassava shares are roofing it. What does this all mean? Purplebricks (PURP) shows why bears are forces for good. I discuss it. Then Acceler8 (AC8), Parsley Box (MEAL) and Metro Bank (MTRO).
I still cannot see the case for owning shares in a cinema chain, any cinema chain but Cineworld (CINE) has its own additional problems and the debt markets are telling you that thy are going to come home to roost very soon.
It is time for yet another ouzo! As long suggested on this fine website, AIM-listed jam-tomorrow IoT investment company Tern plc (TERN) has done yet another discounted placing to raise c.£2 million (before expenses) at 18.8p per share – and launched a PrimaryBid offer (which you should definitely ignore) in an attempt to raise the same again. But the joke is that it seems it was the Bears to the rescue!
The bears are looking extremely foolish right now. The coronavirus appears to be in retreat and equities are roaring, US jobs data yesterday was taken as bullish, the Nasdaq scored a new all-time high the Dow Jones index closed just 8% off its all-time high and gold has been in retreat. So all is wonderful in the garden, right? I’m not so sure – in fact, I think things are setting up for another big crunch. To coin a phrase (from Alan Greenspan, former head of the Federal Reserve): the markets are exhibiting irrational exuberance.
I take my hat off to Woodford dog, revolutionary washing machine maker (geddit?) Xeros (XSG). It closed Friday with a market capitalisation of about £6 million, according to ADVFN, and has just raised another £6 million without totally crashing the share price. In the current environment, that is quite an achievement – especially since the company has been a cash-burning dog all through its life. What might we learn?
You cannot say you were not repeatedly warned here on ShareProphets – we have been bears from the start of Aston Martin’s latest incarnation as a listed vehicle (geddit?) and this morning we learn that having listed at a stonking £18 per share in October 2018, there is a rights issue on offer at just 207p. Oh, and the full year results are out….
Natch the bad news came after hours, at no-one is watching O’clock. With journalist smearing FTI Consulting doing the PR turd polishing what else would you expect? My pal Carson Block of Muddy Waters whose dossier first exposed the cesspit at NMC on 17 December 2019 HERE noted “At this point, the company’s announcements speak for themselves and seem to be even more damning than our initial report was.” Indeed. Well let’s start with the apologies
Oh dear, oh dear, London’s worst Nomad, Roland “Fatty” Cornish really does have a lot on his plate this morning. I refer not to his third portion of finest Manx Kippers dripping in butter, followed by a quartet of hot crumpets with lashings of strawberry jam. No, he is already in hot water over his advice to ADVFN (AFN) that it should break AIM Rules but now Fleet Street Legend Brian Basham has written to Fatty about another of his cash guzzling and worthless clients, Vast Resources (VAST) and, thanks to Winnileaks, I have that letter.
ShareSoc wants your money. Will you make a donation of £500, £100, £10 or whatever you can afford or will you join for £45? Er No give the cash to Woodlarks instead. But the appeal comes at the bottom of news that ShareSoc has launched the ShareSoc Sirius Shareholder Group to provide whatever support it can to 85,000 investors in this company. The appeal is disingenuous at two levels.
Oh dear, ShareProphets has exposed Versarien rampers getting all excited in private chatrooms. I suspect that this is going to be something we get to mine for quite awhile until the deadwood press catches on.
The talks are advanced but it looks odds on as if Sirius Minerals (SXX) will get bought out at 5.5p per share by Anglo American (AAL). I guess that explains the very strong share price over the past few days, not that there is ever any insider dealing in London.
A day of delight for Joshua as we head off to meet Thomas the Tank Engine at Llangollen and for me as Brokerman Dan makes a truly amazing discovery at the Welsh Hovel. Then it is onto Gabriel Grego's latest triumph, why we bears do such great work and the forces of evil ranged against us.
A day of travel adventures. I recount my breakdown last night, an angelic lorry driver and how I ended up on Nigel Somerville's sofa. Meanwhile Darren Atwater is leaving the UK but not ShareProphets. Then I look at utter lunacy from a "woke" FRC and inept Business Secretary Andrea Loathsome. Then it is onto Neil's sacking from Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), what it means for the Trust and how it will help him hide another £25 million personal windfall gain. I cover Tesla (TSLA) as the bears are squeezed by book cooking. Finally a look at the murky death spiral announced by Vast Resources (VAST).
I start with a look at who might be sued in the Neil Woodford scandal, focussing in on the directors at Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT). Then I lookl at another mini-bond disaster, this time involving Kevin McCloud of Grand Designs. Finally I discuss the latest deranged thoughts and acts of Chris Frazer of Sirius Minerals (SXX) as he ponders an AIM (sorry main market) delisting. Timber!!!! He is, again, the bears best friend.
IQE PLC (IQE) has today announced that it is buying out its partners in a JV in Singapore. Quite simpoly this JV has been a financial disaster, not that this was ever reflected in IQE's accounts.Now it seems to have imploded with IQE's partners walking away. Amazingly the shares are up on the deal at 62p. This is madness and this remains a stonking short.
Bulls claim to be delighted. Having issued a shocking profits warning on June 21, IQE has served up half year numbers which reconfirm full year guidance. There is no follow up profits warning. Well not yet. But bears have real reasons for cheer. Having stated in June that it could operate within its existing £27 million overdraft into Q1 2020, we see today that the company has secured an additional £30 million asset financing (expensive debt). Ok, no bailout placing pro tem but a sign that cash continues to be burned.
I first invested in NYSE listed McEwen Mining (MUX) in early 2016, after watching a podcast on ShareProphets featuring a very impressive interview with Rob McEwen, the founder, CEO and 22% shareholder. . Rob has had previous success in mining having been the founder and CEO of Goldcorp, which he built to a market cap of over $9 billion. His innovative style of leadership has no doubt contributed greatly to his corporate success, as well as seeing him win a multitude of awards in his native Canada.
In today's (long) bearcast I look at Burford (BUR) asking questions of bulls and bears, at Thomas Cook (TCG), surely a slam dunk short at 8p, at Cabot Energy (TOAST), ADM Energy (ADME) and finally at Seedrs where the PR bird is trying to bully me into publishing a falsehood. She is picking on the wrong man. maybe she confuses me with the spineless financial illiterates and PR cocksuckers at the deadwood press?
Shares in IQE (IQE) are volatile. In the past year they have traded between 136p and 56p and closed yesterday at 68p. The market can often be unforgiving when companies disappoint but in the case of IQE it seems remarkably tolerant…
I was re-watching the movie last night and ask the question. I discuss signs that the FCA really is getting stuck in, albeit too late. I look at too good to be true investments starting with London & Capital Finance. I look at house prices and why I think that bad data gives far too rosy a view. I look at US jobs data yesterday and what that means for base rates. And I look at the big short positions in AIM stocks. Don't bet against the bears! Now off to West Ham.
Most of us reading this superb website are bears. Not many people have anything to do with shares at all. And what makes us different is that we are optimists while most people aren’t. And if you are a pessimist, you won't be interested in shares. End of. That’s why traders like us are a minority.
Versarien (VRS) is the reason why everyone should sign up with Primary Bid right now. Most Primary Bid offers are ones that I have no hesitation in telling you to avoid like the plague, being trapped in a lift with Emmanuel Macron or both. But just occasionally one comes along that is really worth punting on. I told you on Friday that Versarien was almost certainly in that category HERE. Today I am vindicated.
Having demanded we bring back this contest, once again Juicin Drumroll fails to win with his nomination. Come on Juicin, we are doing this for you, please try harder. This week's winner of a semi naked photo of Britain's top share blogger, before lunchtime, Thirsty Paul Scott, is Daniel Victor. You can see all the entries HERE but Daniel's winning entry, from twitter, is from a Tesla loon:
In this podcast I cover Tesla (TSLA) which is curiouser and curiouser, Optibiotix (OPTI) and the parasitic vampire that is ADVFN (AFN), Great Western Mining (GWMO), Toople (TOOP), Angus Energy (ANGS), the Brockham Well, UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) anmd its latest despicable smear c/o yellow journalists at The Daily Mail and cheered on by the vermin paid share rampers of LSE Share Talk
Yesterday started badly for the bears when it emerged c/o the FT that the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund had built up a stake of 3-5% in Tesla (US:TSLA) via market purchases. It then got worse as CEO Elon Musk tweeted, yes tweeted rather than announcing via a formal announcement, that he was considering taking the company private at $420 a share and had funding.
Having collapsed by another 25% yesterday to just 4.8 Euro shares in Folli Follie were suspended on the Athens stock exchange first thing today prompting a bearcast ouzo. Initially the company told the Greek media that it was because of all we nasty bears spreading false rumours and creating a disorderly market. Then at 11.30 GMT the awful truth came out.
And the next video is the bears with myself, the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl, the Bard of the Boleyn Lucian Miers and a cameo by Nigel Somerville on Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO). On the agenda Telit (TCM), Tesla (TSLA), Mitie (MTO), IQE (IQE), RM2 (RM2),Avanti Communications (AVN), AIQ (AIQ) and a good stack more.
Shares in Purplebricks (PURP) have had a good run of late, hitting 355p the other day, just a fraction shy of the price at which the German firm Axel Springer invested £125 million on the 26th of last month. Don't lose heart my fellow bears...
Hello Share Packers. We all know the big UK Investor Show is at Westminster next week, compere Mr Malcolm Stacey. And, because you’re serious enough about shares to be on this magnificent website now, I bet we’ll be meeting a few of you on Saturday. I’ve been attending the show for years now, so allow me the impertinence of giving a few tips on how to wring the best from your visit.
I have not slept since Saturday and I am cream crackered. I discuss a few of the movies I watched flying to and from New York. Naturally watching Paddington 2 for the second and then third time was the highlight but there was also Atomic blonde which had great eighties music and lots of violence with commies getting killed. That's fine by me but there were certain scenes I felt a bit uncomfortable watching. I digress. On today's bearcast I cover UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), Mothercare (MTC) and the idea of we bears "preying" on retailers as legal wankers Linklaters suggest. I look at Avanti (AVN) and Pantheon (PANR) and recall an interview I did with Colin Bird. I also look at Nakama (NAK) and discuss how events can spiral badly for a company seen to be in trouble. If you like bearcasts then remember that at UK Investor on April 21 one of many highlights will be a live bearcast with myself and not one but, now, two special guests. Make sure you book a free ticket HERE using the promotional code WINNIFRITH.
A good day for the bears here in New York. First up I walked up from Battery Park to see where I used to work in the black and white era on Wall & Water. It is now being turned into luxury apartments. Anhow, I wandered on past the New York Stock Exchange and, as you can see, the tickers were all red. Then later on it was to meet the King of the fraudsters my pal Sam Antar who, as you can see below, is in relaxed mood. More on that in today's bearcast.
If it was not ouzo o'clock at the Sheriff's Greek bolt-hole after the Servision (SEV) debacle it sure is now after UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) fessed up to disastrous news from Broadford Bridge. We bear have been utterly vindicated but there is far worse to come for the morons who thought they knew better - the shares have slumped to 1.9p but they will now inevitably fall to as low as 0.5p in the coming weeks.
As we have seen with the debacles at Provident Financial, Capita and elsewhere, Britain's most conceited fund manager, Neil "Nomates" Woodford likes to bet - other people's money - against the herd. A share price is tanking, the market must be wrong. The bears are adding to their shorts. They must be wrong too. Nomates always knows best, I demonstrated this with a chart looking at Capita (CPI) the other day HERE. Now I offer up three more Woodford dogs...
Capita (CPI) is the latest high profile catastrophe for Britain's most conceited fund manager, Neil "Nomates" Woodford. Before we go to a chart of shame, a couple of choice quotes from his December montjhy excuse-sheet, sorry fact-sheet, published on 19 January
Hapless Neil Woodford has poured out his heart to the poodle press, Citywire, bleating about how wicked bears Kerrisdale have been beastly about one of the largest - and most obviously overvalued - of the pack of dog investments in his Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT). The bears have bitten back!
So Carillion (CLLN) has gone tits up. You do rather feel for its 19,500 employees but as folks work out what happens next there is an orgy of recriminations. What lessons do you learn?
Relief for Telit (TCM) bulls came at 4.05 PM Monday with news that Davide Serra had bought 1.6 million shares in Telit last week taking his holding from sub 3 to 4%. He only submitted his TR1 after the weekend but paying 160p-180p AFTER we exposed the, then, CEO Oozi cats as the Boston fraudster he clearly knew better than we did. But where did that name Davide Serra ring a bell?
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2016 and thus far in 2017 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week (see HERE) - you may note a sharp increase in the Telit (TCM) short position even though the shares have collapsed. The bear community smells a zero here, this is Globo all over again - note Tom Winnifrith's smoking gun of earlier & ignore it at your peril
Oh how the Lucian Miers baiters were having fun a couple of days ago as UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) shares hit 11p. The Bulletin Boards were full of folks gloating about impending poverty for Lucian and for bears such as Waseem Shakoor. The biggest morons were adding to their holdings as they talked of ever more fanciful targets. Oh dear, as wre speak it is those who averaged up who are now hurting and hurting badly. The shares are just 6p-6.15p.
In this video from Jordan Roy Byrne, Palisade Capital covers Gold and Silver and where they could go over the very short and medium term. It also covers gold stocks which are trending lower slowly but remain in a massive multi-year bottoming process. Overall the picture is one that will make the bears not the bulls happy bunnies.
In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Graham Neary, Lucian Miers, Tom Winnifrith, Matt Earl, and Gabriel Grego select two well known stocks set to collapse. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.
It seems that despite bears not being universally popular, I'm not the only one who thinks that AIM-listed Frontera (FRR) is an out and out bargepole stock. In the wake of yesterday's ramparoonie (oops) highly informative RNS, the Twitterspere has seen a few comments - not least of which from Waseem Shakoor and investment house Jub Capital - sticking the knife in.
You might hate bear raiders. You might think that short selling is unethical. But what you cannot argue with is that ignoring men such as Evil Knievil when they sniff out a fraud or accounting malpractice will cost you a packet. At last year's UK Investor Show the Country's top bears did a detailed presention on AIM darling Avanti Communications, one of the AIM companies most beloved by professional fund managers. Since that warning Avanti shares have collapsed by more than 90%. This year the bears have new targets.
I waited until 10 AM before drinking a bit of my father's ouzo in celebration of the Cloudtag (CTAG) take-down described earlier HERE. That is the sort of restrained guy I am. Boy does the ouzo - pictured below - taste great and its only 51 days and I shall be back in Greece for a lot more. Today has been a 100% vindication for The Sheriff of AIM and my fellow bears and the Bulletin Board Morons and fraudsters are now in undignified retreat. I discuss what happens next, have a few new revelations and a few lessons the morons will, no doubt, not learn in this bonus podcast.If you are client of Novum stuffed into today's placing I explain how you can get your cash back.
Here we go again. Wicked and evil bears launch an attack on a great British company and Roger Lawson of ShareSoc insists he knows better, just like he did with Globo and Blinkx, and attacks the bears. He opines on his blog with three readers:
Well here is an early Christmas present for all good bears, Avanti Communications (AVN) has sort of fessed up to the fact that its shares may be suspended from the AIM Casino on 30th December and that it may be facing a new bond default. Oh dear. If that is not a cue to sell as fast as you can, what is?
Bear raider Waseem Shakoor had called Cloudtag (CTAG) pretty well so far and he is also bang on the money on the matter of free speech. He has just posted this on the ADVFN asylum and he is 100% correct. Or is he? My target is 0p as this is a fraud. Shakoor is just too generous with his 0.1p target. He writes:
Until it was taken private back in 2012 Misys was one of those stocks you did not need to own. Its track record was okay but not brilliant. It had a habit of letting investors down now and again. Its departure was not greeted with wailing and the gnashing of teeth. But now it is planning a comeback in what is flagged up as being one of the largest IPOs for many a year. Caveat emptor.
I start with the woes of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. Then on to why dogs leave it to the last minute to report results. As such I look at Strat Aero (AERO), Vislink (VLK), IGAS (IGAS), and Wolf Minerals (WLFE). I touch on Inspirit (INSP) as it runs out of cash and is - I gather - not paying suppliers. I then look at the two frauds: Highlands Natural Resources (HNR) and Cloudtag (CTAG) where the morons are as happy today as the Quindell (QPP) Morons where when those shares hit 650p. How the morons laughed at the silly old bears as they told us that £20 was on the cards. But of course those backing the Cloudtag fraud insist that it will be different this time.
The standard of entries in yesterday's Getafix on holiday contest was dire. And so notwithstanding the fact that Wildes will now report me to the FCA for market abuse I am awarding the non existent prize to my own entry. You can see the other captions HERE. Please do better with today's selfie sent in by Malcolm who is now back on the beach as you can see below.
It is not just to avoid Wildes screaming "fix - insider dealing and market abuse" and reporting me to the FCA but once again I am not awarding the prize for the day three contest to Nigel Somerville. You can see his and the other five losing entries HERE. For today's contest Getafix has, it seems, left the beach and headed inland and sent us a new photo to allow you to do your worst. The deadline for entering today's contest is midnight ( which is also the deadline in the Tory leadership poll HERE). So yesterday's winner with another corker was...
There is so much delightful (for we bears) symmetry between LGO Energy (LGO) and Andalas (ADL) as both sink to a level where flippers in the recent placings must now take a loss. Right down to the CEOs both having facial hairs. It is uncanny and the subject of this podcast which also makes general points about stocks where the share price dips below a placing price in short order. It is all about human psychology.
And so the four bears wandered onto stage for the final presentation at UK Investor Show. We majored in on why Avanti Communications (AVN) was a 0p stock but we covered many other stocks besides. Enjoy
Bears are the new regulators, in fact the only regulators. Jabba the Hutt wants shorting banned. Worse still he is telling his deluded followers that shares in Afriag (AFRI) and his other dogs fell because of shorting. That is untrue as I explain in this podcast. I also cover: the after effects of ouzo, Frontier Resources (FRI), FastForward (FFWD), TrakM8 (TRAK), PeerTV (PTV), Sirius Minerals (SXX), London Capital (LCG) - in detail - and Jiasen (JSI)
I am sorry for the delayed podcast but I am only just back from time in the Grim Northern welfare safari with the mother in law and thus can now let myself go with a volley of bad language. I end with an explanation of who benefitted from the £150 million + Himex fraud at Quindell (QPP) laid bare earlier HERE and how it also affects Watchstone (WTG). Before that I talk of my annoyance on the silly blogger spats and the explain the difference between a cash shell and an investment company and why I regard our work on exposing the latter as invaluable. In the middle segment I have more bad news for oil companies such as XCite (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Petroceltic (PCI) & Gulf Keystone (GKP) and for the sector as a whole but also for the markets. Dont blame China, we bears are still in the driving seat.
At the 18th April 2015 UK Investor Show, the top shorts of bears Evil Knievil, Lucian Miers, Matt Earl and Kevin Ashton were announced. As noted HERE, we're monitoring progress of those also having been identified as shorts by significant investment companies...
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, we recently detailed the shorted AIM shares (by net short position %) at the start of 2016 - see HERE. The following review of 'The AIM shares shorted as at the start of 2015' suggests further why it may be worth paying some attention...
Hello Share Swashers. There were some real heavyweight stars talking about shorting, mining, gold investing and the general state of the economy at the fabulous Gold Bears and Traders Show at Westminster at the weekend. The turns were all brilliant in their revelations.
This podcast should really be a tutorial in red flag analysis. In it I endeavour to cover every single lesson you can learn from the Globo (GBO) fraud - I hope it makes you look at your portfolio of shares in other companies in a more critical manner.
A busy day with my daughter beckons. In the evening it is the new James Bond film. But first a lunchtime bootcamp with Uncle Chris (Booker) to put her straight on the Evil Empire, the EU. In the podcast I ask if InternetQ (INTQ) is the new Globo (GBO)? Then I look at Chemring (CHG), Dialight (DIA) - another win for the bears - Afren (AFR) gets a mention as does LGO Energy (LGO), BP (BP.), Union Jack Oil & Gas (UJO) and - just to niggle Wildes - Premaitha (NIPT) whose shares are moving ahead nicely - more to go there!
Sadly for us bears most of the slam dunk mid-cap AIM shorts have already gone our way. We have had great sport with Monitise, Tungsten, Quindell, Range Resources, LGO Energy, Cupid, Globo (still more to come there), Gulf Keystone, etc. We won. The Bulletin Board Morons lost. Only Avanti Communications is still left to topple. It will. But now I think we have a new quarry to stalk: Boohoo.com (BOO) looks a slam dunk short at 33p.
Having soared from 0.315p at the start of the month to a 1.725p close on Monday before falling to 1.31p yesterday, shares in African Potash Ltd (AFPO) are currently on the rise again on the back of the company dismissing a report in the Daily Mail as “speculative and unfounded”…
Having crashed well below 500p on a 27th July interim results announcement, shares in Dialight plc (DIA) have maintained recovered levels of around 550p following an announcement of “Cost Reduction Actions”. What’s the current view here?
China is opening down another 2% today. Almost half the stocks out East are still halted or suspended so what is today’s (failing) panic reaction from the Authorities? Yes – arrest the bears, putt the pandas in cuffs because as we all know, the only reason shares fall is because of evil bears. Rob Terry really should list his latest fraud Quob Park in China.
Short Slater & Gordon has been a cracking trade ever since it announced the purchase of Quindell Legal Services. For British bears the weakening of the overvalued Aussie Dollar has been a bonus. The maths are shocking ( and of course will get worse as the various Quindell frauds unravel).
Slater & Gordon overpaid grotesquely for the Quindell (QPP) legal business but the Aussie company is now beginning to pick up the tab as the bears move in. Two of the bear pit panel at UK Investor Show are already short of Slater & Gordon as is well known Aussie bear raider John Hempton of Bronte Capital. Lucian Miers opens the batting for the UK bears.
As a weekend treat I canter through the biggest fallers on the market on Friday and look at which ones seem certain to issue new shares -probably at a big discount - over the coming months. It does not take me that long to come up with more than a dozen names and make a few observations about other matters to do with bears, shorting and the fine firm that is Daniel Cesspit along the way.
“We continue to redefine retailing in our chosen categories with unbeatable prices, huge range and availability, complemented by amazing service.” So says AO World (AO.) CEO John Roberts today. Shareholders might not be so confident – the statement appearing after a warning that “the company expects growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the UK business for the current quarter to be lower than anticipated” and that next year’s performance is also expected to be impacted.
Kevin Ashton was the analyst at Canaccord tasked with covering Quindell. When he handed in a note refusing to say buy or set a price target Rob Terry told Canaccord it would be fired as joint broker if it published it. So Ashston was fired. He is a feared analyst with a forensic mind and great integrity and he will now be speaking at the UK Investor show on April 18.
So as 2015 dawns we can gaze upon the familiar wreckage that is the new norm for the Euro. The blood coming through the Greek bandages, which we were assured were merely little bits of residual bleeding, are now exposed to be the full-on broken limbs some of us said were always there. How much has been spent on Greece? Does any body know? €45 bill to start in 2010, two months later €130bil, €130bil in 2011, the default of 2012 for €206bil and another €130bil needed at the end of 2012…is this the same money: does anybody care?
Commenting on the recent quarterly trading statement from online 'fast fashion' retailer ASOS plc (ASC), I concluded that it did little to improve my sceptical view on the valuation – which has been more bearish than what has seemed to be the consensus broker view. The following updates on the broker reaction to the trading update.
Online 'fast fashion' retailer ASOS plc (ASC) has updated on its quarter ended 30th November 2014 – emphasising that a “strong UK performance continued”, though admitting that “international trading conditions remain challenging”. The following updates.
Following a late October piece – ‘Fitbug Holdings ramparoonie – beware, balance sheet terrible, placing ahoy?’ – the company (FITB) has duly announced it has undertaken a discounted placing, this raising a gross £3.5 million at 9p per share. The following updates.
I spent a happy night reading an an article supporting stock promoters and crooks and an attack on bears from Zak "Judas" Mir. Cripes it was drivel. I then read a quite superb academic paper "Go Down Fighting Short Sellers vs Firms" from the US which is the most comprehensive study of bear raids on US firms. It analyses how they respond but demonstrates quite clearly why the bears are the good guys, why we bears are the most effective regulators against stock promotion and fraud in town. The bald and clear fact is the sheer scale of long term underoerformance of stocks in the years AFTER a bear raid. The clear message is that bears are exposing wrong doing in a way that regulators do not and that listening to bears & selling shares in companies they target rather than siding with the con artists saves you money.
Why do Bears go short? Why do US bears target AIM? Why is being short such a poor risk/reward play? Why do shares go down? What is the difference between a weighing machine and a voting machine? In today's podcast I go inside the mind of a bear.
Given the heaps of abuse I took for calling this one as a nil (that is to say worth 0p) HERE and HERE and several other times on BearCast, I may be forgiven for having a celebratory ouzo today as African Minerals appears to have bitten the dust. Needless to say “its tits up time” was announced at no-one is watching O’Clock , 5.36 PM.
As the stench of death gets ever more ghastly at Quenron (QPP) it seems that every new day this corpse in waiting attracts the attention of a new celebrity bear raider. A couple of weeks ago Muddy Waters chipped in. Today it is the legendary John Hempton of Bronte Capital who has been tweeting words of “encouragement” to the morons. That is before he warns that the shares are going to 0p.
Quindell (QPP) took on the bears and Quenron is losing. I first cited red flags about this fraud in April 2013. A year later Gotham City Research took it apart and now the shorters are upping the ante. The smell of Death is clear and now the best known US Bear Muddy Waters has also chipped in via twitter.
A good day for the bears on the markets and ahead of a boozy lunch I am in good form. The podcast is again explicit in its language, this is no holds barred stuff.
So far the bear portfolio of Matt Earl (the Dark Destroyer), Evil Knievil (the fat man), Lucian Miers (the Bard of the Boleyn) and Tom Winnifrith (the Sheriff of AIM) is down by an average of 18.2%. Today one stock leaves the portfolio (New World) having duly collapsed and in its stead goes African Mining (AMI) which will collapse. But which of our 10 shorts do you think will slump most by Christmas. The deadline for voting is midnight tonight as things are moving rapidly with at least one constituent.
Back in the summer, July 9, the 4 Bears sat down and compiled our top ten shorts for the summer. There has been one disaster – Concha (CHA) – but despite that an average loss (gain for us) of 18.2% per short is not bad. So where do we stand now?
This video is superb, In a humourous way it demonstrates why bears & short sellers provide such a valuable service to the stockmarket and it promises another major China fraud expose next week. I am almost tempted to head off to the Big Apple for the party...
Afer two weeks of globe-trotting Financial Orbit is back and a scan of the macro signals from around the world should give bears, rather than bulls cause for celebration. There is the odd bull opportunity but on balance it does not look so good.
Bears of the Horse Hill Oil stocks keep insisting that the well has a 20% COS. Where, a reader asks, does this number come from? Er… the bears. We put this to Mr David Lenigas this morning who appears to disagree with this assessment. His (diplomatic) response was:
Perhaps we did not give enough options in our reader poll? We should perhaps have included “short selling is okay, unless the bears are shorting a stock I own in which case they should be sent to prison for life immediately.” Anyhow we gave you three options are here are the results:
"If a certain high profile company goes bust will you be happy to have destroyed 2,000 jobs?" I am asked by a poster on ShareProphets. Clearly I am not happy if any job is lost (except, perhaps, that of Fat Sam Allardyce) but please understand that if a firm goes tits up it is not the fault of the bears.
Shorters, or bear raiders, are vilified by the ignorant as destroyers of wealth and of jobs. Some folks want shorting banned. They are wrong. The only people who benefit from banning shorting are crooks, liars and frauds. Capitalism needs shorters for it to work efficiently. Here’s why.
Anyone who was at UK Investor 2014 knows that the Bears session (HERE) saw some great calls. And so ahead of a long sweaty summer I asked Evil Knievil, Matt Earl (The Dark Destroyer) and Lucian Miers for their top 5 shorts of the summer and for good measure I add in my own. Between us we have thus compiled the top ten stocks to short in London!
This may be Tom Winnifrith’s last video postcard for a while as he explains at the start of this edition. The Mrs has bought a hovel in Greece and he is off on Friday to start its renovation. It really is a hovel and right now has no internet and is a 15 minute drive from the nearest habitation. But Tom will work hard on getting connected ASAP.
This morning I published the following article and incorrectly referred to the latest data in the Commitment of Traders (CoT) report as being up to May 6th. In fact the latest data goes to May 13th. I've edited the piece below, but broadly my argument still stands. I've made appropriate corrections and thank a devoted, almost obsessive, reader in the North for alerting us;
I have a follower on Twitter – salt of the earth – who has been questioning my position on Quindell Portfolio (QPP). Hopefully, the following article will clarify the situation.
I am slightly miffed that Quindell Portfolio has given a charting sell on an exhaustion gap fill end of day close basis – one that delivers bearish news for technical traders, but not the end of the world scenario my fundamentals based friends are warning of.