Between now and January 3 all of our writers will be serving up their share tips of the year for 2022. Sixth in our series is a BUY from Chris Bailey. Three brains writes:
Between now and January 3 all of our writers will be serving up their share tips of the year for 2022. Third in our series is a BUY from Chris Bailey. Three Brains writes:
I discuss a fascinating article about XL Media (XLM) HERE in the Times of Israel. If I wanted to list a fraud I’d be big on ESG as was XL. Chris Bailey’s fund manager pals would love it as I stole all the cash. I look at gender targets and ask what they should be, referencing Principals of Cambridge Colleges. I look at Mercantile Ports (MPL) and PrimaryBid and then what I plan, or hope, to do next about the fraud Umuthi (UHS), ask the victims to tell their stories. I look at Paul Johnson’s Power Metal Resources (POW) and its latest news which takes me back to 2007 and Mark Watson Mitchell’s Yellowcake. I comment on Asimilar (ASLR) and then go to town on Deepverge (DVRG) and its journalist trolling cock of a CEO Gerry Brandon explaining why I believe investors were materially misled in the run up to the £10 million June 7 placing and why the company is, for a variety of reasons, a total bargepole. It is just not investment grade material.
Another day and another announcement from Argo Blockchain (ARB) the company that is spending $17.5 million buying some Texas scrub land worth $168,000. It is more green hype which might impress some of the ESG loving millennial fund managers who Chris Bailey is keen on, but cash guzzling Argo refuses to address the herds of elephants in the room.
The top non-Tom article this week is Good news at Morrisons (and possibly Playtech) by Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit at number three or number five if you include the Bearcast and Tom’s new shareshow. The Pub Quiz also sneaks onto the list at number ten. Yet again.. Which one is the best of the week? Tell me in the comments.
When Chris Bailey returns to the non-Tom leaderboard, he reurns in style. Bid discussions at Morrison Chris Bailey is number one or number two if you include the Bearcast and Tom’s new shareshow. The Pub Quiz also sneaks onto the list at number ten. Just saying. Which one is the best of the week? Tell me in the comments.
Once upon a time, the Conservative party recognised that what the economy needed was a successful private sector creating jobs and generating taxes and that the best way to achieve that was for the Government to get off the neck of employers. If only we had a Tory Government. Instead, the regime of Carrie Antoinette and her husband Lyin’ Boris has a raft of new plans to encourage flexible working. They might seem harmless.
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, a sparky interview with Red Rock Resources (RRR) boss Andrew Bell and then a detailed four way with myself, Chris Bailey, Gary Newman and Nigel Somerville on all things mining. Which metals are the ones to be in and why and how to play that. If you invest in mining stocks this show is for you..You can access the show HERE
Nigel Somerville agonised at the weekend about who to vote for on May 6. In answer to his questions various of our writers will, over the coming days suggest who is worthy of your support. Next up is Tory Councillor Chris Bailey explaining why you should vote for the party of sleaze and corruption.He opines:
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Richard Poulden on Wishbone Gold (WSBN) where I own shares and am a bull and on his other company Upper Thames (UPPT) a blockchain play where I cannot hide that I do not get it at all and Chris “Three Brains” Bailey on what he is buying and on macro-economics.You can access the show HERE
This is a bonus video for you all discussing gold with a bull ( Chris), a mega bull (Nigel) and a reluctant & cautious bull (me). We discuss macroeconomics, gold, silver, PGMs and copper and certain gold investments.
I start with the new nickname for baby Jaya and why I am doubly sleep deprived. Men of my age really should not be fathering babies. Then to the great news: I have spoken to Chris Bailey and he is recovered and plans to start writing again this week. I discussed gold, inflation, market madness with Chris and relay our thoughts. Then I ask you to consider your mask-wearing habits and discuss Remote Monitored Solutions (RMS). Finally, can you top £150 for a bid for something worth 2 Euro which will not arrive for 6 months? Please do so before midnight HERE. And the reason I may need to seek asylum in England is explained HERE.
Hello, Share Revellers. With the markets closed today, let’s take the opportunity to reflect on ethical investing. Once a strategy for folks considered to be cranks, the idea is taking an ever stronger position in the mainstream of investing. And I should jolly well think so, too. But what’s the best way of cleaning up our portfolios? First, it must be remembered that one person’s ‘unethical’ share is another trader’s perfectly acceptable choice.
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Chris Gilbert the boss of Fox Marble followed by me explaining why, though I am 80% down, I am sure Fox will multibag from here. Then a very long – and very funny – session with Zak Mir with his top share tip among London small caps, his view on the markets, the real economy and discussions on Supply@ME Capital (SYME), Eurasia Mining (EUA) & the lies of both, on Big Dish (DISH) and more. Finally it is me onSupply’s lies again and also on why Trainline (TRN) miust surely see a share price collapse. You can access the show HERE
I start with the therapy my woodshed offers and also a note on Chris Bailey. Then I look at Powerhouse Energy (PHE) and Remote Monitoring Systems (RMS) before considering bitcoin and gold and why I personally have big exposure to the “barbarous relic” and no exposure to crypto.
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new, I hope, weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Chris “3 brains” Bailey on his dirty secret, the real economy why UK shares are so cheap, on gold and his 3 top picks. There is also a detailed interview with the boss of AEX Gold (AEXG) who is not really 13 years old plus I discuss a new stock I have bought into heavily and also why Supply@ME Capital (SYME) has this week hoisted its biggest red flag yet, is a scam and is worth 0p. You can access the show HERE
The most read non-Tom article this week is BREAKING NEWS: Synairgen – Trial “progress”, but do you feel lucky? by Peter Brailey is at a terrific number two or number five including Bearcasts and Tom’s new shareshow. Which one is the best of the week? Tell me in the comments.
The most read non-Tom article this week is Embracing uncertainty and the mad gambling world of GVC by Chirs Bailey is at an excellent number one or number seven including Bearcasts and Tom’s new shareshow.
I start with a few thoughts on the possibility that Greece might be added to the UK’s Covid red list – feck you Boris you utter clown and here’s why. Then I see that old Warren Buffett has finally seen the light on gold and I have a few thoughts on that. Then a bullcast on why Jubilee Metals (JLP) has crossed in inflexion point and is now such a perfect investment.
I haven’t written about my little portfolio of dividend muncher stocks for quite some time – 117 days to be precise. At the last count, on 13 April – in the wake of the Covid-crash – my supposedly big dividend payers which were supposed to beat the bank were underwater on a total return basis, including some top-slices, by 9%. So much for beating the bank! So how are things looking now?
Centrica (CNA) updated the market this morning with its half-year report…..and the proposed sale of its US unit, Direct Energy for $3.6 billion. With the sale process of Spirit Energy still to be restarted once commodity and financial markets have settled and the eventual divestment of its nuclear business still to come, Chris Bailey reckons it looks like this is a trip back to the future as the company returns to its mid-80s look as a regulated UK business. Here, here.
A busy morning recording MineProphets videos with Chris Bailey, remember to book your ticket for next Saturday HERE. In today's bearcast I discuss Boohoo (BOO) and Carnival (CCL).
The most read non-Tom article this week is Commercial property update: Intu's on standby, Workspace believes by Chris Bailey is at a thrilling number three or number nine including Bearcasts and Tom's new shareshow.
Malcolm will not approve of this as he regards it as unethical. But I am getting older and, to date, Centamin (CEY) and San Leon (SLE) are the only dividend paying stocks in my pension. And that has to change
Excluding ShareProphets Radio 29, the most read non-Tom article this week is Another Thursday another reality pill, this time for BT Group...? by Chris Bailey at a fantastic number five or number 13 including Bearcasts.
Fear not you do not need to break lockdown. The event is online and for £9.99 you get access to a line up of stars of the investment world never seen before at a UK show. It really is all star. Carson Block, Gabriel Grego, Mark Slater, Jim Mellon, Evil Knievil, Vin Murria, Peter Hambro, Sam Antar, Adam Reynolds, Luke Johnson, me, Chris Bailey, Dom Frisby, Paul Jourdan, James Delingpole, Malcolm Burne, Chris Bailey, all the team here at ShareProphets, Matt Earl, Lucian Miers, Peter Hambro, the list goes on. As well as the star speakers there is also the Sith Lord Zak Mir and 30 PLC CEOs will also present. Doors open at 8.30 AM amd there will be chatrooms to engage with many of the speakers and each other open all day. And your ticket will give you access to all the videos right up until Christmas. The booking section of the site is secure ( see the padlock is present) and you can book your seats now & get more show details HERE
It is a big question: where can you make money now? More to the point, with economic uncertainty the order of the day, perhaps not making money but just preserving capital as best you can should be the focus. Are shares going to go up? In general, I doubt it – at least for the time being. With interest rates at historic lows and therefore bond prices sky-high it is hard to see much progress there too. Perhaps we should all just move into cash? But central banks are printing, governments are borrowing so the threat of devaluing currencies makes that option unattractive too. What to do?
Excluding ShareProphets Radio 27, the most read non-Tom article this week is Imperial Brands & Royal Dutch Shell - tell us about the 'd' word (please) by Chris Bailey, at number four or number 11 including Bearcasts.
With the current state of the markets there isn’t a lot that I would exactly be rushing to buy at the moment, as I think that even the good companies that have strong enough balance sheets to survive relatively unscathed, could well go a fair bit lower yet.
To be fair to fully listed ITV (ITV) it has to be commended for this morning’s update at regards Covid-19 in much the same way as one should applaud the statement last week from Next (NXT) as Chris Bailey did. It should also be commended for chopping the FY dividend to conserve cash in this uncertain time – that is the responsible thing to do. But the shares have been marked down, suggesting there are problems – although as Chris Bailey points out, they are surely far less severe than at CEO Carolyn McCall’s old stamping ground over at Easyjet (EZJ)!
In today's podcast I look at Intu (INTU), Rightmove (RMV), Purplebricks (PURP), Iconic labs (ICON) and Nanoco (NANO).
ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com, has been very bullish on Gold for a while. His short term view has been that gold is in a correction but that one should treat that as a great opportunity to get positioned for his long term view that a big rise is on the way. Well, it does start to look as though he is being vindicated.
In today's podcast I discuss Carnival (CCL) and the Coronavirus, Optibiotix (OPTI) and Versarien (VRS)
Chris Bailey's article Has Fevertree (FEVR) completely lost its fizz? by Chris Bailey (spoiler alert: it's the top non-Tom story) made me think about the wider drinks industry.
Palldium! That's the asset class that you should have invested in last year. Sorry, we almost renamed ourselves PalladiumProphets but then we got distracted and keep on harassing bad guys. But this chart of 11 asset classes over the past ten years is faciinating.
During the first seven days of Christmas each of the team will serve up two share tips (buys or sells). I will serve up 4. That makes 20 in total. Enjoy our share tips of the year 2020. Eighth up is a BUY from Chris Bailey who owns shares in the company below.
During the first seven days of Christmas each of the team will serve up two share tips (buys or sells). I will serve up 4. That makes 20 in total. Enjoy our share tips of the year 2020. Sixth up is a BUY from Chris Bailey who owns shares in the company below.
Perma-dog Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) has been a predictable disaster for investors since its latest iteration joined the stockmarket last year and ShareProphets readers were well warned off by Gary Newman ahead of the IPO and Chris Bailey was no less scathing HERE. Indeed, Tom Winnifrith wondered HERE whether it would go bust for the seventh time. On Friday evening after hours, at 5.05pm – no-one-is-watching o’clock on General Election results day - the company issued a statement. Uh-oh…….
This is another situation where I ask for valuable feedback from our readers and Tom will add an editor's note reading something like "Darren is being utterly mad."
We are running articles by supporters of the three main parties in Britain urging you to vote for their party. If you are some SNP supporting sheep molester or cottage burning Taffy and want to bleat about not having your say, tough. This is about parties that are serious across the UK ....and also the Lib Dems. Our first contributor was lifelong Labour supporter Brian Basham, next was writer here and recently elected Conservative Councillor Chris 'three brains' Bailey and now it is Woodlarks walker Jonathan Price for the Lib Dems:
Over the next week or so we will run articles by supporters of the three main parties in Britain urging you to vote for their party. If you are some SNP supporting sheep molester or cottage burning Taffy and want to bleat about not having your say, tough. This is about parties that are serious across the UK ....and also the Lib Dems. Our first contributor was lifelong Labour supporter Brian Basham, now writer here and recently elected Conservative Councillor Chris 'three brains' Bailey writes:
I apologise for the lack of articles today, Gary Newman is on a book deadline, Chris Bailey is engaging in his dirty secret and I am olive harvesting. A few words on that and then I look at comments that Roger Lawson of ShareSoc makes on debt and also on Victoria (VCP). On this occasion he is only partially wrong, which must be seen as a result.
An RNS this morning of a Strategic and Trading Update from fully-listed Crest Nicholson (CRST) brought bad news for investors: a volatile trading environment has seen full year earnings guidance chopped and although we are promised the 33p dividend is still expected to be met, it is only for the current financial year – and then only if trading conditions do not further deteriorate significantly. But there is good news for Woodford investors - well the former ones, at any rate.
There are two guests in this week's show, First up I discuss the clown who runs Sirius Minerals (SXX). Then I welcome Chris Bailey. We discuss where value lies in the market and has the mood music changed, SIG (SHI), Metro Bank (MTRO), Funding Circle (FCH), the crazy share price of Diageo (DGE) and much more. Then my second guest is the legendary bear raider Gabriel Grego of Globo and Folli Follie Fame. We discuss his latest triumph Bio-On and much more. If you like this and can't wait seven days for more of the same and are tired of being a cheapskate you should listen to my Bearcast every day.
With a stack of high-yielders which the market might suggest were due to chop their dividends (which is why, on paper, the dividend yield is high) and so far two payouts having come under the guillotine, it is with some trepidation that I thought it was time to take a look at my mini-portfolio of dividend munchers’ stocks. I offer no recommendations here but my mini-portfolio of Vodafone (VOD), BT (BT.A), Centrica (CNA), ITV (ITV) and recent addition Centamin (CEY) is supposed to be beating bank interest but most have been notable for share price slippage over the past few months. I’d better take a deep breath…….
In a mere 80 years, neither Europe, nor the Americas, nor China will have any cities in the top ten by population, according to this video. Where is the growth? Africa.
In today's podcast I discuss the ominous silence from Brady (BRY), dare to disagree with Chris "three brains" Bailey on SIG (SHI), look at Bidstack (BIDS) and consider the, incomplete, Q3 trading statement from Audioboom (BOOM), pondering when its next bailout placing will be.
In yesterday's Bearcast, Tom talked about some of the outlandish claims in this article covering my favourite company, We Work. WeWork (actually known as the We Company) is attempting to IPO in the US. Let me highllight some of choice bits of the article that Tom didn't get into.
I've broken up these lists into articles and Bearcasts for the past year so readers can get a more rounded sense of what is popular each week. But I think that I need to show you the actual, merged, top 11 for this week.
In today's podcast I start with a couple of reflections on the joys of modern life involving Andrew Monk of VSA, cannabis and the tossers at Barclays Bank (BARC). I look at Burford (BUR), Falanx (FLX), IQE (IQE), Xaar (XAR), Providence Resources (PVR) and Lansdowne Oil & Gas (LOGP). I forgot to mention Restaurant Group (RTN) but Chris "Three Brains" Bailey, again, covers it very well HERE and he is right. It is a slam dunk sell. Lucian Miers reckons it might just be a zero.
Once again, please excuse my croaky voice. In this second edition of the ShareProphets Radio podcast sponsored by Riverfort Global Capital, this week, in order I discuss the cowardice of a well known AIM CEO, interview bear raider Lucian Miers on a wide range of subjects including Tesla, Neil Woodford and WPCT, IQE, Purplebricks, UK Oil & Gas, Thomas Cook and cannabis, I then interview value blue chip investor Chris Bailey on, inter alia, Tesla, EasyJet, Imperial Brands, Woodford, Burberry, Dignity, and St James Place. Enjoy. If you like this and can't wait seven days for more of the same you should listen to my Bearcast every day.
Maybe I’m just a blinkered old fool, but I just cannot believe that Jeremy Corbyn will get his feet into Number 10. As such, the biggest part (for me) of the case to sell Centrica (CNA) falls apart in my view. Here is why.
I did warn my pal Andrew Monk, as he greedily filled his boots with Thomas Cook (TCG) shares and for a time he looked smart. Now the stock has collapsed to just 10p but that still values the company at c£150 million. The bad news for Monkey and Chris “three brains “ Bailey, a fellow bull, is that this is likely to be a zero.
This gets worse and worse for Chris Rynning, the former boss of ShareProphets AIM-China Filthy Forty play Origo Partners (OPP). Having discussed how a billion Kroner disappeared to tax-havens under this self-styled China expert, today E24 looks at the company credit card. If you thought Nilesh Jagatia of Teathers (TEA), Insprit (INSP) and Octagonal (OCT) was, ahem, generous (to himself), this appears to take the biscuit.
Hello, Share Takers. Juicin Drumroll, whose posts on this venerable website are always valuable, lashes into my piece on Diageo (DGE) the drinks giant. He alleges that booze can cause more trouble than illegal substances in this country. He said he would feel dirty owning this share.
I just realised that we are coming up on our sixth year of publishing ShareProphets. (The actual date is in April).
With help from Chris "three brains" Bailey and the Sun Newspaper I explain the logic behind young Steve's weekend plans. I then look at GLI Finance (GLIF), try to explain a few points to a man who attacks a bearcast he has not listened to (Brokerman Dan), Flybe (FLYB ), Blue Prism (PRSM) - surely a stonking short - and Westminster Group (WSG) and its record of cash guzzling shame.
OK, I’m a bit late with this update and the last one wasn’t at all pretty as total returns weighed in at a depressing -1.4%. So much for being immune to a dodgy market! But the dividends are still rolling in and I’m still beating Neil Woodford….every cloud, and all that!
Trading updates have been coming through thick and fast over the last few days, accompanied by an influx of tipster tips and broker ratings. In this week’s article, we review two companies that have attracted the highest number of tips over the last seven days, and assess whether consensus sentiment is positive or negative in each case.
A reader this week suggested that we look at a specific bulletin board conversation this week as background to a story. ShareProphets writers rarely look at the boards, and I'd be shocked if any have ever participated, but I took a gander.
Since I broke up the leaderboard into stories and Bearcasts—as a way of shoehorning in more stories—readers don't really get to see the domination of Bearcasts on the leaderboard, much to Tom's irritation.
Hat tip to Gary Newman for spotting this gem from the LSE Asylum. Meet gilogilo.
Between Christmas Day and January 2nd we shall be publishing more than 20 share tips of the year – buys and sells. Seventh up is the second one from Chris "Three Brains" Bailey of Financial Orbit.
Between Christmas Day and January 2nd we shall be publishing more than 20 share tips of the year – buys and sells. Third up is one from Chris "Three Brains" Bailey.
The next City Forum is on January 21 with Adam Reynolds as the guest speaker being quizzed by the Sith Lord Zak Mir. I bet Adam's quaking about that grilling. Three companies will also present and take questions as will Adam. Put the date in your diary. From this week's seminar here is Britain's Buffett being interviewed by Three Brains himself
I start with the news about the olive harvest. When you get the full financial report you will laugh. I almost did. I am almost tempted to get Neil Woodford to invest in it. Then I discuss Thomas Cook (TCG), Audioboom (BUST) and Tekmar (TGP), another disastrous IPO on the AIM Casino. I also discuss the battle between the metropolitan elites and the rest of us ref. France, but also the UK and Brexit.
There are now just ten seats left at the UK Investor Show team's next City forum which takes place on the evening of Monday 3rd December in the heart of the City of London at the headquarters of investment bank UBS. There’s mince pies, wine and canapes on offer but more importantly the event features presentations and a chance to quiz three growth companies: SkinBioTherapeutics, RiverFort Global Opportunities (formerly Paternoster Resources) and Sosandar. The evening ends with our own, Chris “Three Brains” Bailey, interviewing Britain's Buffett Nigel Wray.
What blue chips do the "professional" share tipsters like and should we care?
Just over a year ago ShareProphets went from an advertising model (i.e. letting evil Google bleed us dry) to a subscription based one. That means we can write what we want and thanks to well over a thousand of you, our revenues have gone up and we did, actually, make a tiny, debut, profit last month. Hooray! But perhaps you are reading this article sitting outside all walls and have not signed up for full access at just £5.99 a month HERE. Just think what you are missing…
We’ve made November and the world didn’t end on the stock markets after all. Phew. Having noted that three of my four picks had been pretty resilient during the market squall of October, we have now seen a bit of a recovery across the markets (not that I think it will last). So how’s the performance?
What are your Sunday rituals? The most reliable one of mine is a phone call from Tom demanding to know where this column is.
Fully listed BT (BT.A) is the largest holding in my small collection of dividend munchers by value, although for the purposes of the portfolio it is marked as one unit, along with Centrica (CNA) and ITV (ITV). Vodafone, the fourth member, is half a unit – thank goodness! Yesterday’s interims went down very well with the market, which marked the shares up to around 267p at the peak, and closed at around 260. The shares haven’t been this high since last January and you have to go back to last October before you see an extended period of higher prices than that.
Looking at the leaderboard this week, I find it interesting - after a few days of plummeting share prices - that the most read articles are on prosaic things: clothing, hotels, real estate, and minerals.
Despite a series of strong earnings announcements, it’s been a disappointing few months for holders of London-listed bank shares. Tip activity spiked in the banking sector this week, spurred on by third quarter results announced by Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) and Barclays (BARC) in recent days. This week, we take a look at recent tip activity in the sector, and see how tipster sentiment towards banking firms currently differs from brokers.
Clearly, the topic that brought loads of people into ShareProphets this week was Patisserie Holdings (CAKE). It makes you wonder why this alleged fraud captures the interest of the mainstream media but the Globos and Folly Follies and Quindells do not. Is a high street presence what stops a scandal from being reported or not?
I start with reflections on a rather plump young lady not wearing a bra parking her truck in front of my makeshift studio here in Greece. Moving swiftly on, I have a go at Malcolm Stacey over this piece and at James Bowden over this piece. I stand with Chris "three brains" Bailey on the recruitment stocks. Then it is onto BCA Marketplace (BCA). is it still "The Big Short?" I discuss in light of news both from Pendragon (PDG) and from the USA yesterday.
Well, here we are a month on from my last update and there has been a bit of excitement in my small portfolio of FTSE100 high-yielders which I hope will ride out any market storms ahead. I say excitement – but nothing has changed: ITV made noises about bidding for Endemol and then announced that it wasn’t going to after all. The shares went down, and then recovered on the two bits of news, so I guess the management got the message!
It’s been a busy week in the markets, with a number of big names announcing their latest figures. In this week’s article, we cover broker and tipster reaction to a handful of trading updates that have attracted our attention over the last seven days.
Hello, Share Scrimpers. Some of us consider ourselves ethical investors. We do not buy shares in companies with products and services which we think may harm people or the environment. But some of us have different views on what is ‘ethical. Now my colleague on this beautiful site Chris Bailey is an enlightened man.
A (Top) hat tip (sorry!) to Chris Bailey re. mens formalwear retailer Moss Bros (MOSB), with he in March having noted serious corporate shooting yourself in the foot and suggested to look for offers from the company rather than buying the shares. The shares are lower, despite a half-year results announcement which included “early responses to the Autumn/Winter 2018 range across Retail are positive and product availability is good”…
Debenhams (DEB) and Dunelm Group (DNLM) both featured heavily in the financial press this week and while both had some disappointing news to share, both broker and tipster outlook about the future of both companies was vastly different. This week, we take a look at the respective performances of each, and how tipster sentiment has shifted over time.
It is a while since I updated on my small portfolio of high-yielders from the FTSE100. The idea of the portfolio – perhaps somewhat contrary to expectations – is that I am bearish, but am struggling to find somewhere to park my cash. Bond yields are low and prices high, but interest rates are rising so my simple mind sees capital losses there. You still can’t get any meaningful interest at the bank and property prices look set to (at best) stall. And to cap it all, I am nervous that the market might sell off. So I am investing here as a bear.
When I arrived in the UK over a decade ago, I was asked what football club I supported, over and over.
The answer to that question was far more important than I understood at the time: it would determine, in the questioners' eyes, if I could be trusted, who my friends would be, how hard I was, and a zillion other things. I thought I was being asked what football club I supported.
I note Chris Bailey's excellent article earlier, HERE, and have to say he is bang on the money and those who advise buying housebuilding shares such as Andrew Monk and our own Malcolm Stacey are very wrong. The equity markets are telling you there is a stack of trouble ahead.
It was interesting to listen to yesterday’s Bearcast Special, with Tom Winnifrith joined by Lucian Miers and Brokerman Dan – the last of whom sounded like a jolly good cynic to me. He described AIM as “all puff” and asked which company could go to zero he said any AIM company. Of course, I think there are a few exceptions but in general the cynic in me enjoyed hearing what he had to say. Perhaps that is partly why I’ve been looking to put a dividend muncher’s list together, as well as having some stocks I can invest my cash in to generate a return even if the general market keels over.
I recorded this on my last night in Greece. As you listen I shall be starting the trek back to Bristol. I appeal to those yet to donate to the Woodlarks charity walk by myself, Lucian Miers and Brokerman Dan to donate HERE - we are at 69% of our £20,000 target and every cent pledged will make a difference. Thanks to a reader for spotting a court case involving Safestyle (SFE) which is utterly shocking - I reckon this makes the stock uninvestable. I then take issue with the analysis of a City pal of Chris "three brains" Bailey on the matter of fraud.
There was a lot of huffing and puffing this week as Forbes magazine published this piece on the business fortunes of 20 year-old American reality TV personality Kylie Jenner. Forbes declares Jenner the worlds youngest self-made billionaire based on the success of her cosmetics company, Kylie Cosmetics.
I start with a bit on my walking schedule. I really will suffer tomorrow so about donating a tenner to Woodlarks as you think of the pain that lies ahead. Support a great cause HERE. In the podcast I look at non food retailers where I take a simple view as I am not as clever as Chris. I look at CyanConnode (CYAN), GYG (GYG) and follow up on Gary's piece on Bellzone (BZM) with a discussion on what constitutes market abuse.
Chris Bailey is away, so can’t enjoy his ouzo o’clock moment here on ShareProphets. Instead, that falls to me. Back on May 10, when covering the full year results of BT (BT.A), Chris wrote: …the CEO - who surely the new Chairman is considering whether to keep or not. I, on the other hand, noted only last week that there looked to be a battle going on in the boardroom. So I’ll enjoy my ouzo (but I’ll save Chris a glass)!
Hello Share Braves. I’m so disgusted with the sort of person who’s now common and becoming more frequent in Shareland, that I’m actively pursuing other ways to glean an honest income from my pile. You only have to look at what Tom is having to put up with these days to have sympathy with my current jaundiced view of the Big City.
So far it has been a good day. I look at four shares I own: Optibiotix (OPTI), Falanx (FLX), Premaitha (NIPT) - yes Wildes you are wrong! - and Sosandar (SOS). And I comment on today's Julie Meyer bombshell. Praise be the Lord. I look at Beowulf Mining (BEM) and wider lessons after its placing and then discuss housebuilders in general after Chris Bailey's excellent article HERE. Chris is right, my old friend Malcolm - a sector bull - is wrong and I explain why.
This session was chaired by our own Chris Bailey and featured Andrew Bell of Red Rock (RRR), Rob Scott of Anglo African Agriculture (AAAP - where we own shares - Ahmet Dik of Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) and Colin Bird of numerous companies, including Jubilee Metals (JLP) tipped by Andrew Monk this morning.
Hello Share Swappers. A fellow Shareprophets scribe and a very nice chap I meet with pleasure at all the Global Group UK Investor Shows, writes to commend investment in Imperial Brands (IMB). That, of course, is a tobacco company.
This week all of the team will tip 1 stock - long or short - which presented at UK Investor on Saturday or was mentioned in a presentation. For paying customers only, fifth up it is Chris Bailey who, TW notes did a superb job interviewing Vin Murria on the main stage. Utterly top notch. Back to Chris and his share tip.
I’ve been wandering through my list of tasty-looking dividend plays identified HERE for further additions to my dividend muncher’s list. The first was BT (BT.A) which I bought at 225p and has since risen nicely to 241.5p. We’ll see how this plays out when its results are released early next month, but so far, so good. My second choice was Centrica (CAN), but I haven’t taken the plunge there yet. Working down my list of high yields, it has been too easy to rule out most of them but I alighted on ITV (ITV) and I wonder if now may prove a good time to climb on board.
The excitement mounts as the Winnifrith family heads off for a day at an owl sanctuary for that is the current obsession of young Joshua. Ahead of that I reflect on themes touched on by Malcolm Stacey today (HERE) and also Chris Bailey (HERE). I go far further than they do. The times they are a changin' and not for the better. Bring on the goats. If you like bearcasts then remember that at UK Investor on April 21 one of many highlights will be a live bearcast with myself and Paul Scott. Make sure you book a free ticket HERE using the promotional code WINNIFRITH
Looking down my shopping list for dividend munchers in the wake of our mini-crash (see HERE) I see fully listed BT (BT.A) on a yield of 6.82%. I’m no expert in these large-caps (so this is NOT a tip!), but that seemed pretty tasty to me and worth a bit of a look – my first port of call being what the ShareProphets large-cap professor, Chris Bailey, had to say (see HERE).
Between December 24 and January 2 we are serving up 24 share tips of the year from our team of writers at ShareProphets. The share tips are for paying subscribers only. Next up, the second idea from Chris Bailey.
Between December 24 and January 2 we are serving up 24 share tips of the year from our team of writers at ShareProphets. The share tips are for paying subscribers only. Next up, the first of two ideas from Chris Bailey.
Tesco (TSCO) shares are little changed today and progress or not over the next few weeks will be highly dependent on the infamous Christmas trading update of early January. I have no great tactical insights on this but I am hopeful it will be part of the strategic improvement and opportunity in the stock I noted a couple of months or so ago HERE. Certainly the share has shown a bit of form recently and this has been driven by improving sales metrics, hopes for the generation of enhanced margin and cashflows, lower debt...and the potential from the Booker (BOK) takeover. It is the latter which is in the news today.
Back in October I talked about how you could profitably play at being a hedge fund manager via buying some shares in media giant Sky (SKY) - see HERE. From then to now this call has worked out well and the discount to the proposed takeover price has narrowed sharply. Sounds like a building need to make a decision whether to hold on or cash out...except a lot of other stuff has changed.
'Twas a week before Christmas...and it is apparently time to spot the stock exchange poseur as I read in today's press that the London Stock Exchange has helped float a cool 98 companies so far this year...and naturally is hoping for a couple of tiddlers to take it over the century level before close of business on Friday 29th December. Well...bully for it...
There are two things I know about 2017. The first is that I had not one but two inaugural trips to a Sports Direct (SPD) store (and survived) and the second is that the omnipresent but embattled retailer should have been my tip of the year the thick end of a year ago. However in this world we must look forward and that brings me to today's first half profits at Mike Ashley's emporium.
I have had the horn about Ashtead (AHT) shares for a while now, as noted during my write-up a quarter ago. Another quarter, another update...and boy has it continued to clean up with profits ahead of hopes, assisted by the post hurricane-related spend that tends to benefit the construction equipment and related rental business that the company specialises in.
I have something to confess. I perused the online Guardian newspaper over the weekend...and I did particularly enjoy one article. Fortunately, it was not anything political (I have not completely lost my marbles) but it did involve a fascinating business case study over time of the humble sandwich. Or as one contributor to the article observed 'we are light years ahead of the rest of the world'. Clearly the Earl of Sandwich has a lot to be thanked for. At the front of the queue in terms of British sandwich production is Greencore (GNC), whose heritage is in sugar beet but is now the top supplier of choice to all but one of the major supermarkets.
It is going to be a week filled with economic rhetoric - as every UK Government Budget epoch tends to be. As an aside - and something to remember for this Wednesday - the way to spot a better than average budget is if it is generally slammed in the press the day after. Someone told me this rule too many years ago to recall and I have to say it has been pretty accurate since. Anyhow, back to stocks and specifically another bout of economic common sense from Centrica (CNA) today on the issues of why price caps do not work.
You do not have to be active in the stock markets for long to realise that FTSE-100 companies have the propensity to deliver incompetence and intrigue just like their smaller cap brethren. Today's shocker is centred on automotive and aerospace sector giant GKN (GKN) which has made a bit of a habit over the last few months in bogging things up.
The most boring company in the FTSE-100 by far is in my opinion SSE plc (SSE, Scottish & Southern Energy). Admittedly utility companies are not meant to be sexy but SSE with its lack of growth and grinding up dividend payment (which encompasses pretty much all of its free cash flow) is the ultimate tortoise. Don't worry I know the hare and tortoise fable and my own investment style is hardly rabid but shoot me now if I make this one a top ten portfolio position at any time before the age of 85. However...
Back in mid-September I told you to take your trading profits on Next (NXT) at around fifty quid a share. Today's update highlights again that currently the only way to play even UK retail names with good market shares, decent balance sheets and a propensity to chuck out dividends and undertake share buybacks is with a trader's hat on.
A busy corporate update Tuesday and three sets of comments stand out for me.
Putting a portfolio together involves making decisions by comparing and contrasting one company against many others and wrapping it all up in some overriding sector/macro strategy. Simples, right?! For reasons too obvious to state, the financial sector had a shocker during the global financial crisis and which, in due course, led to the creation of a new competitive grouping - the 'challenger banks'. As one traditional name (Lloyds Bank - LLOY) and one new challenger name (Metro Bank - MTRO) have both reported today, let's compare and contrast and see if either pass muster. Prepare the cage...
Whitbread (WTB) has had an up-and-down year since my last update on the stock - HERE. The Costa and Premier Inn operator unsurprisingly has been impacted by the changes in perception towards the strength (or not) of the UK consumer and this has pushed the shares between a £36 and £42 range this year. Today's interim results have again pushed the shares towards the lower end of this range despite the company reiterating its hopes for the full year.
I cannot get used to calling the company formerly known as Regus the new comedy name of International Workplace Group (IWG). Perhaps David Brent had something to do with the change of name... Anyhow the newish name has not provided much luck today with a 30%+ dumping in the shares.
I have never written about Merlin Entertainment (MERL) before but i have certainly visited one of its leisure facilities religiously at least once a year for the last five years or so. Yes, I can attest that Legoland is actually damn good, clean family fun and due to the fifty minutes I spent in the queue for the new Ninjago ride the other month I have changed my specialist subject for any future Mastermind appearance.
After the omnishables that was Theresa May’s big cough-rence speech, mumblings from the Brexit transition Queen about the need for a price cap on the easy targets of the electricity and gas utilities spanked the shares of Centrica (CNA) and Scottish & Southern (SSE), with the former falling to a 14 year share price low. Whilst the latter bores me, the former does grab my attention as the current management team does have a sensible plan involving selling us energy efficiency related technology and services to complement our core gas and electricity bills.
The fine office of Wikipedia informs me that: 'Ferguson is a Scottish surname and given name. The surname is a patronynic form of the personal name Fergus. The name Fergus is derived from the Proto-Celtic elements *wiros ("man") and *gustus ("vigour", "force", or "choice"). Well...you learn something new everyday. Additionally as of a few weeks ago it is the new name of the old Wolseley (WOS, now FERG), the FTSE-100 plumbing and heating kit stalwart.
I have never smoked and have no plans ever to but I am enough of a libertarian to take the view that if individuals want to light up after knowing everything that medical science has discovered about tobacco over the last couple of generations then that is their business. And so I do periodically invest in the tobacco sector.
A cool two years and two months ago (almost to the day) I observed you had the opportunity to make some money on the shares of precious metal refiner and clever catalytic converter technology company Johnson Matthey (JMAT) with the natty headline of '19th Century heritage with 21st Century appeal'. After briefly getting to the area of my £35 target price a few months after the original call, they are back there again now after a stupendous end of last week bounce.
One of the great pleasures of a Sunday morning is reading the Sunday press or - because i am not completely antediluvian - reading various bits and bobs online without the threat of newsprint getting everywhere. Pacing through the Sunday Times business section on my laptop i almost spat out my morning coffee when I read:
If I told you that UK clothing retail behemoth Next (NXT) mentioned this morning that earnings per share for the current financial year were now estimated to be down between 3.1% and 10.9% you would probably not want to buy the share after muttering about the downbeat UK consumer, nobbled by a lack of real wage growth and a slumped Pound. Well you would be quite correct in not wanting to buy Next shares today...because with the stock up a cool 11% it is once again pushing close to the 50 quid a share level I hoped for as a share price target in my writings on the stock earlier in the year (for example HERE).
Evil Google and wicked Facebook have sucked all the advertising spend out of online media. We poor content providers do the creative work, the internet giants take the cash. And so we have no choice we must ask you to subscribe to ShareProphets or we must shut down. There are 297 reasons a month why you should pay as little as £5.99 a month for our content.
Chris Bailey is one of the writers who a subscription based ShareProphets - assuming enough of you sign up! - will be showcasing more often. In the video below he explains exactly why you should sign up NOW HERE
Has the weather been bad since the second half of July with you? It seems to have been alright in the locality of Bailey Towers but as I spend my time inside slaving over copy for ShareProphets among other akin matters, rather than sitting in a pub garden, I cannot really tell you if Greene King (GNK) is talking reality or not with its expectations-chopping update today observing: 'since the second half of July, when the weather worsened, trading weakened'.
In a world of omnipresent instant communication and next day delivery options, I am not really sure there is that much difference between the first and second class letter service - and I am certain that many of you reading this in rural communities can barely distinguish between the two. Anyhow, Royal Mail (RMG) has itself been downgraded this morning with the news it is out of the FTSE-100 and into the mid-cap melee known as the FTSE-250.
I have not written about Dixons Carphone (DC.) before but, whilst Darren counts the profits from his short sell tip on the share of early January, I have to say today's share price dump has rather piqued my interest.
It was around a year ago that I wrote an article about one of my then tips of the year BHP Billiton (BLT) observing that the world's largest mining company had just made billions of dollars of losses...but correctly the share price was going up. Billiton was a nice solid pick for 2016 but so far this year the share has been more volatile than remunerative.
Who remembers the infamous zero pence share price target established by one 'teenage scribbler' broker on Glencore (GLEN) the thick end of a couple of years ago? Funnily enough, via a decent commodity marketing/trading business, a cute money raising and some decent tier 1 mining assets, Glencore shares did not trouble the scorers below even 50p and over the last 20 months have recovered back to levels seen four or five years back. Today's first half numbers continue that renaissance.
I really do commend to you the search capability on the ShareProphets website because it provides a great short-cut to who-said-what-when. It was last August when I last mentioned Easyjet (EZJ) and since then the stock has been volatile but positive. Ok, it certainly did take a bit longer than I thought AND there were a couple of sub 1000p/share diversions...but you know what it is like with these low-cost airlines: take-off is not always precisely on time...but you get there eventually.
The macro news today showed a glimmer of hope for retailers with the UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) data showing a 1.2% rise in June like-for-like retail sales compared to a year ago. All hail the hot weather and the Eid celebrations which apparently - according to the experts - helped out.
Fans of The Graduate will recognise the form, if not the precise wording of the title. Life has thankfully moved on from the 1960s and in today’s world of internet delivery and crowded consumer choice, packaging matters from both a practical and differentiating perspective.
Is the UK consumer completely shot? For the last year we have had a waxing and waning in views from 'the experts' on this. The reality is that it depends who you talk to but, biggest picture, what is needed is a great product, attractive marketing and a base underlying need. I last chatted through the Whitbread (WTB) investment case in late January, where I concluded that the stock was still worth a punt...
I last mused about industrial plant and tool hire company Ashtead (AHT) fourteen months ago, since when the shares have basically doubled. Happy days...but no resting on the laurels because correctly you should be asking the question of 'so what do we do right here and right now?' Fortunately, the company puckered up its full year results today so all the latest information is to hand.
As the part of rural Wales I was staying in during a good chunk of the Bank Holiday weekend apparently is intermittently covered by the leading mobile network recently purchased by BT Group (BT.A), I had to return to England to surprisingly wax lyrical about the telecoms giant, as the dearth of WIFI forced me to buy an antiquated media device called a newspaper. Within its grubby pages I read that shock-style headline that 'BT threatens fatal blow to final salary pensions'.
Near the top of the FTSE-100 leaderboard today is the telecoms behemoth Vodafone (VOD), which proudly said earlier today that it had enjoyed a ‘good year, gaining share’. Of course the headline profit numbers were full of the negative impact of a non-cash impairment of €5 billion relating to its Indian business. But don’t worry about this! ‘Organic adjusted EBITDA growth of 4%-8%’ is expected and, with €5 billion of free cash flow and a 2% hike in the dividend, the yield munchers will be bought off. Right here, right now though, I would sell Vodafone shares.
The seasons may have evolved a little but the message from FTSE-100 clothing behemoth Next (NXT) is basically unchanged. Life is still tough in a market where, in its words, ‘the UK consumer environment remains challenging’...
In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit and Johnny Hon of Global Group discuss: Is China a Fraud-ridden bubble? And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.
In this video from the storming success that was the 2017 UK Investor Show, David Lenigas of Anglo African (AAAP) discusses making money on African investments with Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit and Laurence Read of Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG), compered by Nigel Somerville. And make sure that you keep April 21 2018 free for next year's UK Investor Show.
I start by explaining why Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit is a freak!. it is all to do with Star Wars. Then it is onto TrakM8 (TRAK) following my kerboom article of earlier. I make specific points about Paul Scott's favourite dog but then general points about why company's acquire and why that turns me off.
Best FTSE-100 short for 2017? After musing about the property stocks I chanced upon Wolseley’s (WOS) epic push towards a 50 quid share price. First congratulations to anyone who picked up shares in the plumbing and building industry supplier at the time of the Brexit referendum vote for around 36 quid. My advice though for 2017 is to sell the shares.
If you want to buy just one new single stock in the FTSE-100 for 2017 you need to look at the perceived Brexit losers given, over the course of the next 12 months, Brexit apocalypse will move further away via delays and position dilution. Forget big overseas earners as this backdrop will crimp their translated back into Sterling earnings so it has to be more domestic plays. And filtering for market leadership, strong balance sheet and continued growth hopes I end up with Whitbread (WTB) the owner of the Costa Coffee and Premier Inn franchises.
As I will publish one day as ‘Chris Bailey’s guide to reading regulatory news statements’, rule 354 is ‘worry about any retail company that starts talking about the price of their products in a RNS’. Normally such price disclosures highlight desperation and hence Sainsbury’s (SBRY) musings earlier today that…
If you are interested in retail shares then one of the more sensible uses of your research time would be to become familiar with the output of Kantar. Even for cheapskates like me there is a reasonable flow of free insights from the business research consultancy to provide a bit of colour.
This was meant to be just a fun debate to start the day with a few laughs. Girly swat Chris Bailey took it really seriously but other competitors myself, Malcolm Stacey, Colin Bird, Dominic Frisby were more relaxed. Speaking for gold Andrew Bell was so relaxed he forgot to turn up but Jan Nelson stood in at the last minute. I explain what a balloon debate is in the video. Enjoy.
After Saracens European triumph on Saturday I imagine that Nigel Wray will be a happy man. He was at the centre of the value investing panel at UK Investor Show with Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit, Paul Jourdan of Amati and myself, Tom Winnifrith. Enjoy
I rather think that the lineup of main writers is now complete. Joining myself, Malcolm Stacey, Amanda Van Dyke, Lucian Miers, Steve Moore, Nigel Somerville, Gary Newman, Chris Bailey, Thierry Laduguie, Evil Banksta and Cynical Bear we now - as of today - have Baby Bear, aka Graham Neary on board.
Gold seems to be in an uptrend so maybe it is time to get a bit of exposure to the gold sector once more? But how? We adsked ten writers connected to this site and/or speaking at UK Investor show on Saturday if they had to bet the ranch on one stock what would it be?
What characteristics do you like to see in an equity? How about revenue and profit growth, free cash flow generation, relatively modest debt levels, an experienced and sensible management team, taking market share against peers and a good capability this could continue over the next few years? And how about for the icing on the cake: a low valuation and increasing dividend capability?
I don’t need to write another love-up article on Randgold Resources (RRS) because with the shares up 50% odd year-to-date you should be looking elsewhere for a bit of relative value. Extending this line of thinking today’s announcement from Polymetal (POLY) is another common sense corporate update from the Russia-focused gold play. Yes I have used the words ‘Russia-focused’ and ‘common sense’ in the same sentence.
The January edition of UK Investor Show magazine is now live featuring an astounding 79 share tips, three sells (from TW), company profile on Avesco, buys from Zak and Chris Bailey, an interview with Zafar Karim, CEO Legendary Investments and more. You can download your free copy below.
Unless you want to stop the conversation dead one tip for a smooth running social gathering event is never to mention corrugated board or packaging. Nevertheless in the ever more consumer convenience world we all live in such products become intimately aligned with ecommerce and retailer brand differentiator trends and that’s why corrugated board and packaging are growing faster than underlying GDP.
My first tip of the year has to come attached with a mea culpa. I tipped BHP Billiton (BLT) at 1000p a share a few months ago and after a suitable disclosure delay bought stock. Since then I have also bought shares below 900p, below 800p and reasonably recently below 700p per share. The clock does not completely reset with a new year but for those investors who joined me in investing at around the 1000p a share level I offer my apologies…but also my advice to double up now.
On the long tack, it is congratulations to Tom Winnifrith with OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) soaring by more than 300%. Kudos also to Steve Moore (K3 Business Technology, KBT, +62% and Impellam Group, IPEL, +57%), Malcolm Stacey (Zytronic, ZYT, +43%), Chris Bailey (Coca-Cola HBC, CCH, +25%) and last of the double digit gainers Nigel Somerville (Core VCT, +11%). On the other hand, it is commiserations to…
And now another main stage presentation from Gold & Bears with the Van Goddess, Amanda Van Dyke leading a resources panel including Chris Bailey, Willem Middlekoop,Chris Berry and the CEOs of Bacanora Minerals (BCN), Jubilee Platinum (JLP) and Asiamet (ARS). There is also a main stage stoming by myself, Tom Winnifrith, as I put the Dutch chappy in his place.
ShareProphets Press' NEW book of 2015 is by Tom Winnifrith, Ben Turney, Chris Bailey and the whole ShareProphets team. In it, the writers on the UK's most compelling financial website look for the eight shares to take advantage of by buying ahead of the 'Santa Rally'.
Spooked by the market sell-off last week, starting to think it will be a Santa sleigh crash in the City? Fear not, Chris Bailey of Financial Oribit discusses the myriad current challenges in the global economy, a hoped for Christmas wish list and why now is not a time for panic selling.
Let me know if you can find a sector more opaque than the insurance sector. In too many years of pacing through corporate reports I cannot think of a sector that consistently bamboozles even experienced analysts with all sorts of anachronistic terminology.
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews 2016 growth rates & policies, sentiment insights, the reason we need to be thankful to China and what we should think about a mega El Nino.
Six months ago after rhapsodising about the 4.5%+ dividend yield I described the Royal Mail (RMG) as:
‘…a brand that has persisted for hundreds of years and it is not going away. As a balance to your blood, guts and violence capital gain stocks it works’
And in that sense the outperformance versus the broader FTSE-100 index since then has been pleasing to note albeit still down a handful of percent since the call was made versus 10% for the UK’s large cap index. Of course you can’t eat relative performance…but that’s where that dividend comes in.
Back in September I confessed to the ShareProphets readers that I had been making some semi-regular visits to my local 99p Store. I also called a sell/avoid/short on Poundland (PLND) shares and it is the latter which has to interest us today following a litany of disasters in the company’s interim results statement today.
A month ago almost to the day (link here) I wrote on the luxury retailer Burberry (BRBY) that:
‘The direction of Burberry shares over the next six months does largely depend on how Chinese performance is perceived. I think they surprise these low expectations and extrapolations…And this makes Burberry shares (still) a buy today’.
Today’s formal six month numbers to the end of September released today reiterate this view.
In the Thursday earnings season results frenzy I knew that Rolls Royce’s (RR/) interim management statement was going to be of the ‘excitable’ nature when the first emboldened headline of the statement was ‘fundamentally strong portfolio of products’.
With Santa apparently due to make his big arrival at my local garden centre next Saturday the starting gun has been fired for the rundown to the end of the year. And for the medium-term investor in me this only means one thing: which sectors, themes and stocks are looking interesting for 2016?
There are some events which transcend normal investment analysis. The shocking scenes of devastation over the last few days from the area around the Samarco iron-ore mine in Brazil following the unintended release of mine tailings received a lot of press coverage. As the co-owner (along with the Brazilian business Vale) BHP Billiton (BLT) correctly in a regulatory disclosure earlier today ‘offered its full support to help the immediate rescue efforts and to assist with the investigation’ and made its ‘immediate priority…the welfare of the Samarco workforce and the local communities’. None of this of course will bring back those who have lost their lives.
I actually was not going to write-up Thursday’s quarterly update from the world’s best larger cap gold mining stock Randgold Resources (RRS). The numbers showed good progress: rising production at an attractively low cash cost, a building net cash balance and exciting prospective exploration development opportunities.
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks discusses US wage increases, global money supply action, signalling from a major European corporate, the US$ and sector opportunities and a ludicrous list of things to do before breakfast.
Market abuser Chris Oil is a big investor in Lenigas Cuba whose IPO will be a car crash on Monday. Thus he and David Lenigas are best buddies these days. Their twitter exchanges last week are disgusting as they celebrate closing down their critics. Prepare to be made nauseous by these ghastly individuals.
In this week's global investment enhanced podcast, Chris Bailey the Founder of Financial Orbit discusses the strong October performance in financial markets, the challenges to Federal Reserve policy, why China is making correct policy changes, a full update on the quarterly corporate earnings round and presents a chart that perfectly explains the investment industry.
The last time I wrote about Chemring (CHG) I noted the lack of questions on its conference call and noted that a lack of interest is generally good news for investors. All eyes are on the defense company today though as it punches up an RNS shocker combining a sounds-almost-certain potential delay to an ammunitions contract with a right issue. Quelle surprise the shares have been slammed over 30%!
The global mega cap energy sector reporting period kicked off today with BP (BP/) reporting 'underlying profit of US$1.8bn for the third quarter of 2015, up US$500m on the previous quarter, along with plans to rebalance its financial framework and grow value long term'. Well that sounds like something for everyone then: profits sequentially up and more than a hint or two about the importance of remunerating it shareholders.
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks is a special with commentary from the presentation slides Chris Bailey gave on Friday at the London Investor Show on the subject of 'Five Global Investment Themes for 2016'
Today's podcast finds me in a panic as Oakley and I need to do frantic tidying before the Mrs returns to cover our respective sins. Meanwhile Tara the cat is also misbehaving. On the agenda - the great unravels at LGO Energy (LGO) but more especially Tribal Group (TRB) - the latter getting a thorough analysis. Then it is onto JQW (JQW), Alba Minerals (ALba) and the Horse Hill/Horse Shite prospect and Michelmersh Brick (MBH) which leaves me confused, perhaps Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit is geekish enough to assist?
This edition of Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the latest macroeconomic news including some troubling data in the United States, a clear slowdown in global trade volumes and the improvement in the gold price. Drawing on these insights five investment themes pertinent to this backdrop - along with relevant individual stock examples - are discussed.
Six weeks ago when I wrote an article for ShareProphets’ e-book The Magnificent Seven I wrote about a business with…
‘…real heritage and was founded a mere 159 years ago in 1856. It is a large business and nestles happily in the FTSE-100 supported by brands that have a growing global appeal with net cash on its balance sheet, good free cash flow generation and a progressive dividend yield of currently just below 3%. The company used to just sell its wares from an expensive shop location but today interacts with its fans and followers digitally to such an extent that a couple of years ago its previous CEO was poached by a small technology company you may have heard of called Apple to assist with their digital brand positioning’
Well more fool me. Burberry (BRBY) may have risen pleasantly in the month or so immediately after the e-book publication but today’s shocker statement and share price moves puts me at a loss today versus my tip level.
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the past week's financial news including discussion on the latest economic data, poor sentiment but also opportunities for investors due to the high correlation of sectors and stocks plus the general pessimism of investors.
Issue 4 of the UK Investor Show Magazine is now out and can be accessed below. Jim Mellon, Rob Terry (prison update), the stockmarket crash (a buying opportunity?), Advanced Oncotherapy, 6 other share tips, accounting for Geeks from myself and Chris Bailey. There is something for everyone.
Allegedly the best things come in small packages…well not today if you are a Vodafone (VOD) shareholder. Below – in its entirety – is a regulatory news service update from the company that hit the wires at just after 7am today:
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the past week's financial news including thoughts on seasonality, the global manufacturing PMI numbers, fund manager sentiment and insights from Caterpillar...and VW.
Dear readers…time for another confession. I may have over the last few months enjoyed shopping at my local 99p Store snaffling a bargain or ten (£9.91 worth!) of relatively near-date cereal, biscuits and chocolate not to mention various household goods.
Bit of a Swiss surprise today with the news that Zurich Insurance is ending its 550p bid for Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA). Normally when a proposed deal falls apart it is because the bidder has found something dodgy in its detailed due diligence – and let’s face it insurance accounting is opaque at best. However this time the issue is all with the seemingly not-so-prudent Swiss with the management at Zurich noting ‘the deterioration in profitability in certain parts of the(ir) General Insurance business’ which it has to sort out first before it could even consider completing a bid on another insurance company like RSA.
Way back at the start of the year one big picture investment theme I had a good deal of sympathy for was that bond investors would have to get used to the term ‘haircut’ (a cut in anticipated coupons/principal repayment cash flows) reflecting the reality of too many crud balance sheets out there. I still believe Greek government bonds have that capability given time and a variety of energy sector bonds look deeply shocking but yesterday the Ukrainian Parliament voted through an agreement struck with its largest bond creditors which included a 20% haircut on its sovereign bonds.
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the past week's financial news including thoughts on the Federal Reserve, 5,000 year lows in interest rates, whether QE will be expanded or not and why we should not fear a structural fall in corporate profitability over the next generation.
Let’s review recent events at the self-styled mining giant Glencore (GLEN). A month or so ago Glencore management gave a pretty clear view in its post results conference call that the balance sheet was strong enough not to raise money. Nine days ago bullied by panicky ‘key stakeholders’ (i.e. big institutional shareholders) the company announced a surprise range of initiatives as I noted here to strengthen their balance sheet. On the accompanying conference call the management noted cost cuts, mine mothballing and disposals were all way preferable to an equity money raising but that – once again – they would be sounding out the company’s ‘key stakeholders’ to gauge their views.
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks enhanced podcast by Chris Bailey, focuses on the week's key macroeconomic news and why the key remains specific theme and individual stock selection in the current market backdrop. This edition focuses on current market challenges, reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic, plus also why cheap breakfasts and inexperienced CEOs provide insight.
Well, well, well. For me today’s number one most interesting UK regulatory news update was from Glencore (GLEN). Just nineteen short days ago after listening to the management of the FTSE-100 mining/commodity trading company confirm their faith in their balance sheet and general corporate approach, Glencore have unveiled a range of initiatives including a US$2.5bn of new equity issuance, the suspension of the dividend for at least the next year and various asset sales and mothballing actions to slash US$10bn from their net debt pile. Well I did warn at the above link that Glencore was ‘still too much of a full-on risk situation to get involved – and don’t believe that 9% dividend yield many data providers are highlighting at the moment…Enthusiasts for large cap mining investment should continue to prefer Randgold Resources (RRS)…or…BHP Billiton (BLT)…(companies) with a proper underpinned dividend and little debt’. For the one-line summary this remains my view.
The latest Financial Orbit Speaks enhanced podcast by Chris Bailey focuses on the week's key macroeconomic news and why it is so important to stick to specific theme and individual stock picking. This is especially the case when the market is in the grips of a panic, as it appears to be now.
In the latest edition of Financial Orbit Speaks, focuses on market volatility, the response of financial markets and what investors prospectively should be thinking about.
My formative investment years were so long ago that I remember the daily thump that announced the arrival of the physical research pile from a variety of investment banks. As a callow youth I used to devour these publications believing them to be a route to insight and riches. The latter was true – although almost exclusively not to the readers of such ‘research’. The reason for this walk down memory lane was that I was reminded by an article from Tom Winnifrith of a report I kept by my desk for months titled something like ‘why EV/EBITDA is the most important statistic for fund managers today’. Suffice to say the quality of my investment insights all those years ago improved materially after I had a desk tidy-up…
Who ever said that large cap equities could not be exciting? A quick glance at the share price graph of the world’s largest miner BHP Billiton (BLT) shows that even a miner with lowest quartile production costs, rising volumes, low debt and a progressive high single digit dividend yield can still struggle against the might of negative investor sentiment towards the space.
In the latest edition of Financial Orbit Speaks Chris Bailey reviews the reasons for the volatility in financial markets...and where to position portfolios to benefit from the next shifts.
Do the Poles drink vodka? I learnt today listening to the results call of Stock Spirits (STCK) that apparently the drink made from the distillation of fermented cereal grains or potatoes accounts for 90% of the Polish spirits market. Surely good news then for the mid cap producer and distributor of vodka brands such as the catchily named Zoladkowa, 1906 and (inevitably) Stock Prestige who is generally regarded as having Poland’s largest market share in the area.
For the mining sector the last couple of years have been almost a perfect storm with its biggest customer China having a growth slowdown and strength in the US dollar further crimping demand. Throw in too the lagged impact of new mines commissioned in more bullish times coming on stream the supply/demand balance has been dire. And so shares in the sector have plunged.
In the latest edition of Financial Orbit Speaks, Chris Bailey looks at continuing challenges in Europe despite the likelihood of a third Greek bailout, interpretations around the Chinese yuan movement, issues in the US and why individual corporate equity analysis remains the key.
Greece may only be a handful of percent of Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling’s (CCH) sales and profits but the malaise from the Eurozone’s most indebted member has overhung the share with its Greek heritage and shareholder base.
In the latest edition of Financial Orbit Speaks, Chris Bailey focuses on the impact of the recently strong US dollar, why this is unstable for the global economy and what areas to focus on if this there is a change in financial metric leadership. Click below to listen to the podcast.
I ended my previous write-up on esure (ESUR) with the observation that ‘my conclusion is to leave the shares for other investors. That is – of course – unless it brings that Italian-Welsh mock opera singer back… ‘.