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Even a few of our detractors have now come around
Back in early March, here, I talked about the fantastic performance of Entain (ENT) which was originally known as GVC. The shares have really had a remarkable last year and – especially if you added back in the dog days of March-May last year – it has been a good ‘un. After all, whilst we used to go to a betting shop, nowadays so much of the focus is on online sports betting and gaming, meaning ownership of Ladbrokes, Coral, BetMGM, Bwin, Sportingbet, Eurobet, partypoker, partycasino, Gala and Foxy Bingo gives you a bunch of different and successful franchises.
An excitable day today as I had my first Covid-19 vaccine (thanks for all those involved including a stock I have not held for years, AstraZeneca (AZN)) and the further progress at Aviva (AV) was very pleasing. As I noted about the latter here, a couple of weeks ago, its simplification process remains strong. For what it is worth, my own target price has risen up by a few more pence above four quid and there is even a 5% plus dividend yield on offer. The shares are still a strong hold for me.
It is good to be back writing a few thoughts on UK stocks. Another time I will update some views on a few names such as GVC, which renamed itself Entain (ENT) back in December. What a last few months for it, and the Americans now want to buy it. I also need to do an update on my old pal DS Smith (SMDS), which performed very strongly whilst I was not watching the markets. And on a whole load of other favourites I will update over the next month or two. I am going to leave Next (NXT) to the experts, as an 8% odd romp in the share price has pushed it to crazy levels, and focus here on Wm Morrison (MRW) instead…
You know I have been a fan of GVC (GVC) for a while, observing a couple of weeks ago here that ‘the market knows that the online betting genie has left the bottle years ago and the events of lockdown #1 just accelerated the transition…all another lockdown does is accelerate the already ongoing radical estate pruning’. Yesterday’s update from the company under their newish CEO Shay Segev titled ‘The Way Forward’ reiterated those structural positives.
Markets, eh! Don’t you just love them? Acres and acres of doom and gloom in the press but – when I last looked today – the FTSE 100 was up. Now admittedly October was dire and the safety valve known as the pound is down, so comps and the backdrop are supportive. I am far from aggressively bullish – you cannot be without much more of a focus on mitigation, workarounds and basically liberating the private sector again to do what it is good at (making money in innovative ways) – but the old adage of ‘being greedy whilst others are fearful’ is whirling around my mind. You have to stay opportunistic…
The most read non-Tom article this week is Embracing uncertainty and the mad gambling world of GVC by Chirs Bailey is at an excellent number one or number seven including Bearcasts and Tom’s new shareshow.
If you wait for everything to line up in an investment opportunity, then often by the time it does you have missed a good chunk of at least the initial move. Actually – in my experience – it is a good thing when there is a little bit of uncertainty because then you are likely to be going into something with your eyes open. Just as nothing exists in a vacuum, nothing is flawless. Life and the markets are both risk-reward games.
Two regulatory news items catch my eye today. I discussed a few days ago, the opportunities and challenges for gambling name GVC Holdings (GVC). The push-pull I noted with regulators and governments continues apace this morning with the announcement of a wider scope HMRC investigation into the group's former Turkish-facing online gambling business, now including 'potential corporate offending'...
I do gamble a little bit. No jokes about this being the norm for any investor! But I do have the odd wager. The late Spurs winner against the Gooners a few days back hurt at a fan level, but given it pushed the number of goals above 2.5 it led to a nice wager win. Still...2-1 to Arsenal yesterday evening! My biggest gambling sector position for a couple of years now has been GVC Holdings (GVC)...
Another new month, another set of disclosure at bad boy Amigo Holdings (AMGO) which shows that the financial markets are a soap opera without parallel. For those of you who want some elements of the backstory, then check out this posting a month or so ago. Anyhow across a couple of regulatory updates, the company has admitted…
Excitable times with markets having a very firm start to the week. And the reason? Yes, the hope that the trends in coronavirus second derivative data is implying periods of lockdown are not as extensive as some were fearing. Naturally we will find out in the fullness of time how true this is going to be, but it means that the glass is half full today and anything mentioned by corporations is going to be seen the right way. Take my old mucker Rolls-Royce (RR.), which I was loving up a couple of months ago…but which has seen its shares plunge due to you-know-what impacting aircraft travel and other servicing-related opportunities...
Business first then pleasure. There were solid updates from two of my larger cap naps this morning in the form of GVC Holdings (GVC) and Aviva (AV.)…
I read a good bit of investment advice the other day - yes, despite almost a quarter of a century as some kind of professional investor I am still learning. It noted that 'if you're a very rare trader with edge, you'll act according to your strategy...if you're one of the majority of traders with no edge, this volatility may be revealing'. Goodness I wish I had exhibited sufficient knowledge and accrued insight to have written that. It is very true in my opinion.
I was more of an observer than a participant in the financial markets on Friday as I was travelling back down south of the border after a brief sojourn in Scotland. I was not surprised that Hammerson (HMSO) shares fell after it announced more asset sales at a discount which only nudges - rather than dramatically reduces - their material debt burden. And I read in the press today that all sorts of excitements potentially await in their results this week including a big dividend cut. Well quelle surprise.
As noted yesterday, I am currently enjoying a short stay at one of the Premier Inn locations of Whitbread (WTB). Thumbs up from my personal bottom-up perspective and - as per the above link - you know my positive thoughts on the stock. Now onto another company I have written positively on over the last year and that is GVC Holdings (GVC)…
Two interesting gambling sector stories over the last day or so. Yesterday there was a report that credit card payments were set to be banned by the Gambling Commission in order to protect troubled gamblers who max out their credit lines in search of funds to keep playing, leading in almost all cases to bad debts and other personal and social ills. The Commission wants electronic payments to be limited to just debit cards and this is undoubtedly eminently sensible. All of this is just another step along the road of professionalism for the gambling industry…
As my thoughts turn towards my tips of the year for 2020, it is only proper and correct to review how my tips for 2019 have worked out. Yes, I know that the year is not quite yet finished...but let's face it, nothing that much is going to change now…
It has been a busy weekend...although not exclusively for the reasons Tom briefly mused upon in his bearcast yesterday(and on which i will do a grand reveal early next week). Back to the markets and I read that another FTSE reshuffle is imminent. Regular readers will recall that this is a regular opportunity moment I muse upon.
It was a mixed-up morning for me with some family and business obligations, so I was a bit less focused on today's regulatory news statements early this morning. Habits die hard however and after ticking off my other engagements, I am back at the desk piling through the rather lengthy list of company updates and musings today...I have got to start with luxury car perma-dog Aston Martin Lagonda (AML), which I last commented on at the time of its very expensive bond issue. Today's Q3 results are even described by the company as reflecting 'challenging trading conditions' and you can take your pick of exciting metrics…
My name is Chris Bailey. I am an extremely clean living person with a couple of minor disclosures to make. One will become apparent in an article Tom has asked me to write in a month or so. The other is that I have a filthy share investing habit, with my personal pension fund having a reasonable chunk invested in demerit areas such as tobacco and gambling...
I am not the biggest fans of the large accountancy and consultancy companies but it was quite striking that a new report from EY observed that there 'were more profit warnings from listed companies in the first nine months of 2019 than in any year since 2008'. And you guessed it - as one of the deadwood press notes - 'the report cites concerns over the economy and delays or cancellations of contracts as the two main causes for companies to miss their forecasts. Brexit was highlighted as the reason for 22% of profit warnings in the three months to September — up from 10% in the first quarter'.
Oops...they did it again. Fortunately on gambling company GVC (GVC) I am talking about a profit upgrade. Now admittedly the Q3 trading update is talking about a 'pre-IFRS16 ebitda' but it is going up in terms of the full year guidance to £670-680 million from £650m-670 million, which sits nicely with the August upgrade…
I have written about GVC Holdings (GVC) a number of times this year, after making it one of my tips of the year back in late December. I have been critical on many occasions this year, predominately because of the ludicrous share sale by the Chair and CEO just days after loving up the full year numbers and prospects. Rather appropriately the share sale was at 666p. The number of the beast, indeed! Today's interim numbers read well on an overall basis...
Whilst one of my tips of the year Sage Group (SGE) goes from strength to strength, the other one - GVC (GVC) - continues to be all over the place as I recounted here a couple of months ago .
Like the complete investment sad-o that I am, I will be listening into today's GVC Holdings (GVC) capital markets day. You will recall I made the stock one of my two tips of the year and then the Chair and CEO stupidly dumped a bunch of stock which nobbled the share price. As discussed HERE, I decided to remain a believer and channelled my inner Peter Lynch in deciding that they were foolish but not rotten as the only real guide to director views is buying more stock with cold hard cash. Well the shares have recovered a little since and judging by the tone of today's pre-capital markets day blurb, life remains opportunistic…
I wailed and gnashed my teeth over betting behemoth GVC (GVC) a month or so ago after the company's CEO and Chair dumped a bunch of shares just days after an excellent results publication...which they also loved up in print and voice at the time. Throw in the terse regulatory news statement and correctly the stock dumped afterwards and has not yet recovered. Moving aside from the satanic aspects of selling shares at 666p (and the CEO having 666,666 shares left!), today's trading update represents the start of a rebuilding phase for the company with UK market investors...
In today's podcast I look at Neil Woodford's latest disaster Redde (REDD) where i accuse the management led by Avril of recklessness. I believe that she is guilty of the same at BCA Marketplace (BCA) and explain why that is the next car crash for Neil Woodford. Then there is a note on GVC boss Kenny Alexander whose behaviour last week marks him down as a prize shit. And that is me being charitable. If you enjoyed this bearcast, follow Jim Mellon and support the Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks HERE.
We will get onto the latest from one of my stock of the year tips in a couple of paragraphs time, but first the brick company Ibstock (IBST) which I loved up just under one hundred days ago HERE. As I noted back then, this is a sensible company which is not only benefitting from an inherent undersupply of domestic bricks but also by both investing in and focusing on just the UK market having sold for a decent sum its US brick/tile business. Today's numbers are a bit messy due to these investments and the disposal but the trends are still pointing in the right direction…
There are some thin news days...and there are some busy ones. Today is one of the latter...so let us dive in…
EasyJet (EZJ), GVC Holdings (GVC) and Just Eat (JE.) all released eagerly-anticipated trading updates within the last week, so it’s no surprise that they’ve been attracting the most attention from brokers and tipsters amongst LSE-listed companies over the last seven days. In this week’s article, we take a look at how brokers and tipsters have interpreted the most recent numbers, and what sentiment towards these three firms has looked like over the last seven days.
Being a slave to news flow, despite it only being mid-January it is time already for an update on my two tips of the year as both reported updates earlier today…
Thin old pickings in today's larger cap regulatory news disclosures but I did read a trading update from Anglo-Irish betting company Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) where it bemoaned recent retail store and Australian performance...but loved up online and the US of A. Well quelle surprise. If there is anything I know about gambling sector stocks it is that (1) most are horribly regressive and it is the relatively poor who are the sources of most of the profits and; (2) there is a big switch from retail to online as with many other areas in life…
I enjoyed Malcolm's piece on William Hill (WMH) yesterday. I too had checked out Friday's results statement which included (inevitably) a Gareth Southgate picture on the cover of its analyst presentation document. Goodness only knows what they would have done if we had actually won...
