This issue seems to be confusing some of the morons who own the humungously overvalued shares in the fraud Zoetic International (ZOE). And so I shall explain why. I shall make it simple as those who are confused are themselves simple and so there will not be too many long words. Before I start, I explain why Zoetic is a fraud.
Folks owning shares in frauds or Bulletin Board Morons always, for a time, crow at the stupidity of ShareProphets as such stocks, like shooting stars, can rocket before the final collapse. Natch shareholders do not see this. They are convinced that ShareProphets and its writers are shorting, which we are not and that temporary share price strength is a sign that they are right. Here, for such folks, is a tweet from a moron called Spencer Freeman who used to plague me seven or eight years ago.
This year a lot of private investors seem to have been focussing on any stocks even loosely associated with Covid, plus those in the tech sector, and more recently mining has also seen a resurgence, gold in particular, but oil and gas has very much remained unloved and out of favour. That gives you a great opportunity and this is no fisherman’s tale…
To be fair to Tom Dobell, his first ten years running the M&G Recovery Fund were pretty spectacular. That was partly because the market tanked as he arrived and then bounced back. Corks, waves etc but still his record was impressive. Today that all seems a long time ago with news that he is being resigned at Christmas.
As at June 30 2019 Petra (PDL) had net debt of of $541 million. The shares, 45p a year ago are now 8.735p valuing the company at just £75.6 million. The question is: will Petra go bust?
For those who missed out on Thomas Cook (TCG) which failed in its attempt to blag £200 million off her majesty’s government, the bonds in Sirius Minerals (SXX) - which failed in its attempt to blag $1 billion from HMG - are trading at 33 cents on the dollar.
Oil prices have taken an absolute battering this week, but I suspect that what we have seen is somewhat of an over-reaction.
I trained as an oil analyst 27 years ago and have been writing about the sector ever since. Those morons who thought they knew better, as they filled their boots with Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite (XEL), Magnolia (MAGP), Andalas (ADL) and UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) always thought they had greater sector experise and on twitter came up with devestating responses to my hard analysis. Meet utter fucktard Donato Perretta, a UK Oil & Gas owning moron.
I have to take my hat off to UK Oil & Gas (UKOG). It has kept the show on the road for far longer than is customary with these types of promotes and seems to have cemented its position as the nations’ favourite oil tiddler after the long reign of Gulf Keystone (GKP) in the good old days of "The Tod squad".
I resisted the temptation to short Premier Oil (PMO) a year ago, along with Afren, Gulf Keystone and Petroceltic as it was never in the same basket case league as that lot. I even hitched a brief ride North as it became clear that a wipe out was not going to happen. (In case I come across as arrogant or smug I should declare that I was short Hurricane Energy at the time which more than did for the Premier rise)
Having asked for readers tips for 2016 for the amazing prize of lunch or dinner with Tom Winnifrith (or the chance to fob it off on someone you don't like) HERE, this is the result...
Yes, I am indeed resident at a motorway service station as I explain HERE. In today's podcast I look at ethics, Milestone (MSG), Strat Aero (AERO), SalvaRx (SALV), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Blur (BLUR) - as a long I kid you not - and Audioboom (BOOM), er..less so.
Say what you like about the army of lunatic small shareholders that have stuck with Gulf Keystone (GKP) through thick and think but they are loyal. Rather like a wife who keep getting beaten up by her drunken husband they just stayed on for more. It was almost touching. And now with the debt for equity complete Gulf is to kick those folks in the bollocks with a share consolidation.
Having seen Cloudtag (CTAG) demonstrate one of the golden rules of share trading here is another: run for the hills when a company starts messing with its creditors. Step forward Avanti Communications (AVN).
As a rule, as I have pointed out before, the stocks most talked about on bulletin boards make appalling investments. Gulf Keystone (GKP) is a good example of this and Tern (TERN) the pretender to the Gulf throne is also a case in point.
At time of writing bondholders in AIM-listed over-indebted Igas Energy (IGAS) are meeting in Oslo, having been summoned by the company to consider proposals to waive certain bond covenants while a restructuring of the company’s capital is negotiated. Igas previously indicated that a bond covenant breach was anticipated to occur this very week. Will the bondholders play ball?
I have had rather a soft spot for the management of Xcite Energy (XEL) ever since it responded to a rise in its share price by effectively warning over exuberant retail punters that its shares were close to worthless.
It is red faces for Sir Richard Branson and for uber pious Richard Reed of Innocent as app firm Sup goes bust but the whole story is just so hilarious, a message on the stupidity of man and his inability to learn from his errors you will wet yourselves. The nature of the demise of this company is the highlight of my week and it will be yours too. Elsewhere I look at Telit Communications (TCM), Ambrian (AMBR), Aureus Energy (AUE) - I await your apologetic update Jo Hart - XCite (XEL) and Gulf Keystone (GKP).
The reason for that is revealed at the end of the podcast. Before that I look at Gable (GAH), Entu (ENTU), Gulf Keystone and a stock ramped by Justin the Clown, Global Energy Development (GED). Does an endorsement from the Clown mean that the shares might not be cheap?
The City's top oil analyst, Zac "the Knife" Phillips of SP Angel has today issued a stark warning on the risks in holding shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP). As it happens I think Zac is being rather too nice on this occassion, he misses a trick. First to Zac, with the shares now trading at 2.23p, but, he warns, worth as little as 0.65p. "The Knife" writes:
The world still hates small oil stocks. We are not sure when that will change but given how many of the mid caps are collapsing either entirely (Afren) or surviving only via schemes that see shareholders almost wiped out ( XCite, Gulfsands, Gulf Keystone, IGAS, LGO, etc, etc) we feel we could be at a Burmah Castrol moment. Do a google search if you are too young to understand the reference!
When I penned my one and only suggestion in the 2015 ShareProphets Christmas tipfest, AIM-listed Igas Energy (IGAS) shares sat at 18.5p on a market capitalisation of £55.3 million. They have been all over the place since then – up as high as 21p twice and down as low as 10p. They are currently 12p as the last bubble nonsense deflates gently but has anything really changed? Er, no. The company is still drowning in debt which it can’t repay and the lit fuse is now almost ten months shorter. Igas remains a stonking sell.
On Thursday, as expected, the bond holders in Gulf Keystone (GKP) agreed to the restructuring which will give them 85.5% of the company. All that remains is for the scheme to be sanctioned in court next Friday, a formality. Within five working days of that date just shy of 20 billion shares will be dispatched to noteholders.
Thanks to Steve Moore and Gary Newman we own shares in Xtract Resources (XTR). Both deserve P45s for that. I discuss this disaster as well as another hole in the ground in Bongo Bongo land which stinks - Armadale Capital (ACP). Then it is onto Newmark Security (NMT) - Graham Neary hang your head in shame for this exercise in nepotistic value destruction - before I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and the administration waiting to happen that is Avanti Communications (AVN)
As I have pointed out before with Quindell (QPP) there seems to be a strong correlation with the underlying quality of a company and the unblinking loyalty of its hardcore shareholder base. In the case of Quindell this spilled over into unbelievable hatred and invective at anyone who had the temerity to question the company’s obviously questionable practices.
In a while I must go asremble a cot. It won't be like a cot of old but is bound to have 85 parts, six types of screw, an Allan Key and instructions designed for a Nobel Prize winner. It is like a heroic task from Greek mythology and I expect to be in a bad mood soon. So for that reason and one other I record early. On the agenda: Cloudtag (CTAG), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Pantheon Resources (PANR), 88 Energy (88E), Vipera (VIP), XCite Energy (XEL) and Strat Aero (AERO) and only en passant the fraudsters at African Potash (AFPO). This podcast is long and detailed.
I refer to my 8 Reasons Donald Trump will win podcast in this bearcast - you can listen to that HERE. Elsewhere I discuss the problem of a corrupted press with reference to today's Sunday Telegraph on Gulf Keystone (GKP). I then examine why I think the stockmarket might crash this fall. Finally I offer up a quote from Ayn Rand and challenge you to disagree with how, in 1957, she describes the sad world of 2016.
Still no lawyers letter from African Potash (AFPO) has arrived at Sheriff Towers. It really is like waiting for Godot. But at least my mother in law has remembered that it is my wedding anniversary tomorrow. I discuss another thing happening tomorrow, that is to say African Potash which has no cash having to repay $1.1 million to its FD's Mrs, Katrina Clayton. I look at Highland Natural Resources (HNR), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Glenwick (GWIK), Opera (OPRA) and then Gable (GAH) which really has posted a most enormous red flag today. Sell - target 0p.
While we are working our way through the silly season when all sorts of rubbish zooms ahead, I see that Sound Energy (SOU) is nudging an insane market cap of £300 million while I write. It could well soon take the place of the soon to be departed Gulf Keystone as the oil stock of choice for the retail loonies.
When I go to hell it will be to spend eternity in an ante-natal class such as the two hour ordeal I endured today. I am unbelievably angry at having wasted two hours of my life on this cobblers. Moving on I look at ECR Minerals (ECR), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Avanti Communications (AVN) Eden Research (FRAUD) in the wake of the demise of its sister company Environmental Recycling (see HERE), Braveheart Investments (BRH) - run by an old Sefton man, African Potash (AFPO) and its partner in slime Blenheim Natural Resources (BNR)
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) could be toast by Friday but I think that incredibly unlikely. That they will crash is a racing cert after today's news. Gulf tells us that the owners of 82% of each of the two classes of bonds have both agreed to support the debt for equity swap. It needed just 75% support so that is in the bag. Next up..the Bulletin Board Morons.
I have a stack of dessert gooseberries. I know they should be in a fruit salad but I can't buy into that so want to put them into a crumble but with what? I seek answers from any gourmands or gourmets who are listening. Then I look at Alba (ALBA) in detail, its placing ahoy! I move through Northbridge Industrial (NBI), Gable (GAH) and the mystery of the dog that barked in the night, Gulf Keystone (GKP), Keller (KLR) and FastForward Innovations (FFWD).
I start with Gulf Keystone (GKP) and a share price driven by morons. talking of morons, London's most useless Nomad, Roland "fatty" Cornish has screwed up again. This time it is Nyota Minerals (NYO) although the real issue here is when is Nyota bust. I think it might be already. I look at Avanti and ask who is smarter: Tom Dobell of M&G, a Bulletin Board Moron or an institutional investor in bonds. I look at Koovs (KOOV), Essentra (ESNT) and Audiooboom (BOOM).
Gulf Keystone (GKP) says that it is considering a hostile bid from Norway's DNO which comprises $120 million of cash and $180 million of shares. Given that DNO will be taking on a net $100 million of debt, post the restructuring the offer is remarkably generous but not half as generous as the market implies.
I am challenged to comment on Cenkos (CNKS) as an investment in light of todays news on its role in the Quindell fraud (HERE). Okay, I do my best. Then it is on to Techfinancials (TECH), Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) and some friendly advice for Malcolm Stacey, Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite Energy (XEL) and then I end with Avanti Communications (AVN) where I hope you understand the historical analogy.
I had to buy a copy of the Guardian for Dad today and carry it home through the streets from the newsagent. How I am shamed in front of my neighbours. Meanwhile dad is reading books I own by Peter Hitchens, Niall Ferguson and Melanie Phillips and is loving them, as his inner reactionary is exposed. On the markets I look at Servision (SEV), Xtract Energy (XTR) - Steve Moore and Gary Newman you are FIRED! - Gulf Keystone (GKP), Taihua (FRAUD), Oxford Pharma (OXP), Judges Scientific (JDG) and another bad day for disgraced Roger "Ramper" Lawson of ShareSoc, Kennedy Ventures (KENV) and finally the poltroons stock of choice for today, Nyota (NYO).
I spent the morning at an ante natal class with the Mrs. Hell's teeth I am a feminist don't you know? But the whole experience left me feeling just rather old and I discuss why. Then it is onto today's ramptastic news from Horse Hill and I explain what it actually means. I waltz through Gulf Keystone (GKP) - bear squeeze - Stanley Gibbons (SGI) - recovery play? - and Guscio (GUSC) - Nigel Wray play. Then it is onto Tern (TERN), Gable (GAH), IGAS (IGAS) and Golden Saint (GSR) where I discuss why today's RNS really is just bollocks and how bulk sampling really works.
Tomorrow my father faces his interview at the Conservative Club and I have been coaching him on what he can say as a deluded lefty to get access to the cheep beer. Elsewhere I discuss how share prices can defy gravity temporarily and why with reference to Gable Holdings (GAH) and Gulf Keystone (GKP). Then I move onto Nyota (NYO), Avanti Communications (AVN), Strat Aero (AERO) and then, in some detail, the dog run by liars that is African Potash (AFPO)
My feelings of satisfaction at being vindicated on Gulf Keystone (GKP) when the details of the debt for equity swap were finally published yesterday were somewhat short lived, as I was put on notice that borrow was being recalled and I had to buy back a fair chunk of the position at more than three times its worth.
It is of course Bastille Day and that, of course, prompts a few jokes at the expense of the Froggies. I then move into Gulf Keystone (GKP) and a spot of moron baiting and working out moron investing game theory. I then move to a detailed look at Digital Globe (DGS) before covering en passant XCite (XEL), LGO Energy (LGO), Trinity (TRIN), Circle Oil (COP), Premier Oil (PMO), IGAS (IGAS) and Nostra Terra (NTOG). I also comment on Glenwick (GWIK), 88 Energy (88E), Strat Aero (AERO) and Inspirit Energy (INSP)
Its apology time. To all those morons who have berated me for being a Gulf Keystone (GKP) bear from 180p down it is time to apologise. Today, Paul Curtis and the GKP barmy army have suffered the final kick in the gonads with news of a massive debt for equity swap which sees near total equity wipeout. Its ouzo O'clock for the Sheriff of AIM who awaits the apologies.
For months and months Trinity Exploration (TRIN) has been in default on loans taken out with Citibank. Investors who declined to sell the worthless shares seemed to believe the truism that "If you owe the bank $1 you are in trouble, if you owe $1 million the bank is in trouble" as Citibank - which was actually owed $13 million declined to pull the plug. Until today. Instead of the normal weekly rollover announcement we are told:
As Gulf Keystone (GKP) sputters toward its inevitable fate, the hunt is on to spot the next equity wipeout in this space. There are quite a few runners and riders. I mentioned Xcite (XEL) a while back and Premier Oil (PMO) is also in the frame. My nap however is Igas Plc (IGAS) as the next for the chop.
I have spent the morning getting twitter grief for this article but the one polite twitter enquiry concerns BoxHill (BOX) and I answer that in this podcast as well as explaining why shares are both up and down since Brexit - it all depends how you look at it. I also cover Gulf Keystone (GKP), Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV), Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) and Avanti Communications (AVN), I meant to talk about Bovis (BVS) but forgot. I shall try to remember tomorrow when I am down to make a gooseberry crumble. I shall report back on that over the weekend.
It looks as if shareholders will very soon hear the final grim news at Gulf Keystone (GKP). I first said sell at 180p and have been given grief all the way down. Folks can line up to apologise to me in an orderly queue. I discuss who is to blame and what happens next. Then it is onto the reason Brexit is not the real issue, there is an elephant in the room and its European but its on the other side of the channel. That takes me to the UK deficit, Cheryl and the cheerleaders and my stance on equities.
Concrete details of the restructuring at Gulf Keystone (GKP) have apparently been leaked to the Times this weekend, confirming that the end is nigh for this once-loved and highly-debated stock.
June was a quiet month for Gulf Keystone (GKP), at least in terms of news for observers. Internally, there are doubtless all manner of interesting conversations taking place. We were given a twin helping of clues on Friday as to the content and direction of these discussions. Unfortunately, there is still no reason to believe that the shares have any value. But maybe the end is nigh.
I am back in from the fields where I have been labouring in 40 degree plus heat. Today I offer a few thoughts on Circassia (CIR) and the risks folks just dont seem to appreciate of a) biotech and b) backing stock selections of star fund managers, in this case Neil Woodford - who incidentally is clearly a very talented chap. I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite Energy (XEL), China Frauds and then in some detail at Blur (BLUR). For further info on its brain dead dickhead of a PR man Dominic Barretto go HERE
Well fingers crossed anyway - I cannot claim to be hiding my views! The Mrs flies back to the UK today so normal full work service resumes tonight. Pro tem I have comments on Vast Resources (VAST), Highlands Natural Resources (HNR), PHSC (PHSC), XCite Energy (XEL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Totally (TLY) and Skil Ports & Logistics (SPL).
Why are shares in TrakM8 (TRAK) plunging. This is not a "Winni-wobble." The company needs to make a statement either officially or via its spokesman on earth, Paul Scott. Elsewhere, after a visit to Mistra which was amazing, I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP), death merely postponed, Avanti Communications (AVN ) - ditto - Edenville Energy (EDL) ditto and Cyan (CYAN) where I explain who is shafting Joe Retail: brokers and management.
There is massive speculation about Gulf Keystone (GKP) on the Bulletin Boards and I see that the shares are ahead at 4.2p today. But there are only two facts and I remind you of both as the clock is ticking, it is 11.59 Pm and at midnight shares in this company are likely to go pop.
There may not be a bearcast tomorrow. It is all down to the arrival of the Mrs as I explain. Meanwhile I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and XCite (XEL). The best time to kick a man is when he is down. So says Evil Knievil. And that applies to these two oilers where events are moving fast and the shares are near enough certs to be toast already. CIC Gold (CICG) is in an even worse state and today's RNS is a shambles. The curse of boy scout mugger Stuart Bromley strikes again. It is doomed. Then I discuss what, if anything, is wrong at TrakM8 (TRAK). Then a question raised by the share price move on Friday at ADVFN (AFN).
Over on TomWinnifrith.com, Tom writes about the latest person who has annoyed the Daily Mail (and thus, Tom), drinking ouzo down the Kambos pub, and waging the WW III against snakes and rats.
I start by putting one scouser straight on how things work in the real world. Then it is onto DDD Group, China Norfolk Aquatic Foods (AFG), Glenwick (GWIK), Sovereign Mines of Africa (SMA), Wishbone (WSBN), R4E (R4E) - go Dr Hon! - and Gulf Keystone (GKP).
We polled you on Friday asking which oil mid cap did you think would follow Circle Oil (COP) in admitting that there would be little or no value left for shareholders. Which is the next oil company to admit that it is toast. And your verdict was clear. I would say that it is probably a tight race between the gold and silver medalists in this poll. You voted:
And so today, Circle Oil (COP) has admitted what anyone with half a brain cell could have figured, that it is officially toast. The question is which of the drowning in debt oil mid caps or large E&Ps will be next to fess up? There is an RNS from Gulf Keystone (GKP) today saying its bondhoders have given it another 11 days but could it be overtaken by XCite (XEL), whose shares are sliding as the clock ticks? Other oilcos in breach of loans include Trinity Exploration (TRIN) and LGO Energy (LGO) while the yield on IGAS debt suggests it is in the merde. So who will be next to admit it's toast, to use either the word "administration" or the phrase "little or no value for shareholders". Voting deadline is midnight tonight.
Yup I am still clean and 99.9% of the time very glad to be. But I know that if I have just one fag it will be all over. So I will not. I digress. Today's podcast covers my little internet difficulties here in Kambos then goes onto Aureus Mining (AUE), Circle Oil (COP), IGAS (IGAS), LGO Energy (LGO) and Gulf Keystone (GKP). Finally I urge regular listener Marcus Stuttard, head of the oxymorons at AIM Regulation, to read the utterly shocking Phil Edmonds and Andrew Groves tale HERE as it shows what a shite job the bogus Sheriff is doing.
Without explicitly using the words "we are 100% fucked and shareholders face either total or near wipeout" drowning in debt Gulf Keystone (GKP) has today pretty much fessed up to what a mess it is in. Not for the first time, the company is telling shareholders that the game is up. Natch they think they know better. They obviously don't remember the last days of Afren.
We were meant to record a video. In fact we did record but something went wrong and the Conservative Club with its cheap beer beckoned. And thus the video short letter appears as a contemporaneous note.
I woke up last night panicking that after staggering home from a boozy lunch with Lucian I had written a drunken piece laughing at all sorts of folks after Phorm admitted it was bust but that I had just written it becuase I felt like it not because it was true. Imagine my relief to discover that it was in fact true and with hindsight I think I write jolly well when drunk. Perhaps we should have a writing contest myself & Paul Scott both drunk vs two boring sober bastards. I digress. I look at BP and executive pay and unable to resist poking some fun at the ghastly Nicola Horlick and dreadful Channel 4 News. I look at 21st Century Technology ( C21), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Strat Aero (AERO), Grand Group (GIPO)) and 88 Energy (88E) where Lucian is short. In a sort of flashback I recall our discussion yesterday on 88 and recount it.
I am beginning to think that my 1p target price for Gulf Keystone (GKP) is in fact far too generous. Having called this as a sell at 180p and all the way down to abuse from every moron in the land I think it is time to revise the target price. The shares are off another 9% today to just 4.675p. Okay I shall stop being a nice guy, I am cutting my target price from 1p to 0p.
Lucian will be here soon so I thought Id better record ahead of our trip to the Conservative Club with its tempting cheap beer. On the agenda I fail to mention that Finncap are complete and utter bastards but they are. I do, however, cover Ruspetro (RPO), Gulf Keystone (GKP), SeaEnergy (SEA), Rose Petroleum (ROSE), Sierra Rutile (SRX), Burberry (BRBY), Mothercare (MTC), a couple of Paul Scott jokes - please do not tell me he has any friends in the Mothercare management community that he thinks I may be offending - as well as a word or two on Challenger Acquisitions (CHAL)
The Morons who have ignored my advice to sell Gulf Keystone (GKP) all the way down from 180p to 6.6p today have occassionally argued that I cannot be right because fund managers are long and strong and they know more than a pizza delivery boy/alcoholic etc etc etc. Today M&G has sold its 5% stake and now owns no shares at all.
I name a few folks who fell for Nigel's April Fool today. How could you think so badly of me? Then it is onto: Ascent Resources (AST), Nighthawk (HAWK), Digital Barriers (DGB), Jiasen (JSI), Stratmin Global (STGR), Gulf Keystone (GKP), AFC Energy (AFC), Vast Resources (VAST) and Nakama Group (NAK). I am rude about folks with MBA's today so if you have one brace yourself.
I seem to have annoyed a lot of folks with an early article on the attacks in Belgium HERE but I am unrepentant and go on to point out a few other things most folks dare not say. From that mess created in the Middle East to another - Gulf Keystone (GKP) and why its RNS today is so bad and tells you 1p is the best case scenario. Then onto what was 3 Legs Resources but what is now SalvaRx (SALV) and why I find what has gone on just not acceptable. I also comment on stock manipulation, Sirius Petroleum (SRSP) and Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) which I cover in more depth HERE
To the Bubble boys 5 nil, To the bubble boys 5 nil, To the bubble boys 5 nil. That great Bubble Sir Stelios has Fastjet (FJET) and its fascist bully boy PR scumbag operatives at Citigate Dewe Rogerson realing. Naturally I start with this. The heroic Sir Stelios makes me even more of an admirer of all things Greek. Well almost. I look at Hellenic Carriers (HCL) and also at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Northern Petroleum (NOP).
I start with two matters from yesterday's Budget which I neglected to mention in my otherwise excellent post Budget podcast HERE. The I move not to Sirius Minerals (SXX), which I shall cover in a seperate article elsewhere following a chat with Chris Frazer which left me quite impressed, but to Sirius Petroleum (SRSP) which is a dog with fleas and whose placing today stinks. Then it is onto Wandisco (WAND), Gulf Keystone (GKP) - where are my fucking apologies from the morons? - Audioboom (BOOM), Challenger Acquisitions (CHAL) and the uber perma dog Sareum (SAR) before I engage in a lengthy discussion on Fitbug (FITB) another perma dog.
As a bear of Gulf Keystone (GKP) since 180p, I note that the shares are now just 11p after the publication of results which are at every level just a disaster - even today this is a storming sell. Where to start?
Gulf Keystone (GKP) has announced that the $15 million gross it announced it was getting on 19 February has arrived which is good news. The bad news, and boy it really is bad news, is that cash post payment is just $56 million.
And yet again the Bulletin Board Morons take something of a battering because they thought they knew better. This time it is - essentially bankrupt - Petroceltic (PCI), shares in which have this morning been suspended pending clarification. Ooops a daisy.
Time and time again we bears warned folks that shares in Petroceltic (PCI) were essentially worthless. But the Bulletin Board Morons - as always - knew better. Tom Winnifrith is just a failed fund manager/pizza boy/alcoholic they chanted as they bid the shares to 20p+. Oh dear folks, this former oil analyst has no sympathy as today Petroceltic received a bid at just 3p per share and that is as good as it will get. The Morons - as ever - just do not know what they are talking about.
On the surface it seems like good news once again - as has been the case since September 2015 - the KRG has agreed to hand over $15 million ( $12 million net) to Gulf Keystone (GKP) in fact today's RNS is a disaster.
A candid interview with Gulf Keystone (GKP) CEO Jon Ferrier in that must read publication Upstream (HERE) makes clear that this company is very likely to see a shareholder wipeout within a year. The shares are now 14.5p my target price is , near as damn it, 0p but here are the key takeways from Upstream.
I feel let down by someone, legged over. But revenge is a dish best served cold. Last year I "dealt with" someone in print who'd cost me money 15 years previously. It was all the better for waiting. I am sure there will be a couple of listeners who will take this on board today. Was I wrong about Gulf Keystone (GKP) yesterday HERE? No the analysis still stands, today's share price spike is a selling opportunity. I also look at Kenmare (KMR), Lakehouse (LAKE), Litebulb (LBB), MX Oil (MXO - statement needed - Crossrider (CROS), Afriag (TOAST), Blenheim (BNR) and Solgold (SOLG) which gets a detailed review and sell advice.
My earlier podcast on oil was I thought very balanced but one shareholder in Gulf Keystone (GKP) disagrees as you can see in the comments section beneath that excellent Bearcast HERE. My fried you are in denial just like Comrade wildes on LGO Energy (TOAST) and those who still believe in Avanti Communications (AVN). I refer to all three stocks but Gulf in particular as I examine the various facets of this common investor trait of denial.
The weekend press is full of stories of doom and gloom and dividend cuts for BP (BP.) and Shell and clearly there are a stack of smaller companies that are totally screwed and where shareholders are likely to face total wipeout. In that vein I discuss Magnolia (MAGP), Igas (IGAS), Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite (XEL) and, of course, LGO Energy (TOAST). But is there a case for buying oil shares as a long term invester. I look at a few cases from BP down to Union Jack Oil (UJO). Perhaps there is no rush but the time will come.
I am sorry for the delayed podcast but I am only just back from time in the Grim Northern welfare safari with the mother in law and thus can now let myself go with a volley of bad language. I end with an explanation of who benefitted from the £150 million + Himex fraud at Quindell (QPP) laid bare earlier HERE and how it also affects Watchstone (WTG). Before that I talk of my annoyance on the silly blogger spats and the explain the difference between a cash shell and an investment company and why I regard our work on exposing the latter as invaluable. In the middle segment I have more bad news for oil companies such as XCite (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Petroceltic (PCI) & Gulf Keystone (GKP) and for the sector as a whole but also for the markets. Dont blame China, we bears are still in the driving seat.
The weekend news from the oil sector is grim. I am not sure that folks out there in, what Malcolm Stacey might term, punterland realise just how grim it is. There is a massive PR and IR industry supporting the proposition that things can only get better. Au contraire, for the next few months at least, they are going to get a lot worse. And in that spirit I offer up a list of eleven oil E&Ps to sell now, to get out what and while you can, as they could well hit zero.
I think that Koovs (KOOV) is a basket case anyway but the manner in which it disclosed information - or lack of it - this morning is disgusting and treats private investors with contempt. The Gulf Keystone (GKP ) RNS is a shocker & I have cut my target price to well below 10p. Some folks just don't seem to accept how the oil price has changed everything and I discuss why certain stocks are now well and truly toast notably Northern Petroleum (NOP), IGAS (IGAS) and LGO Energy (TOAST). I am delighted to see that Cynical Bear's articles yesterday have had some impact and comment on Corero (CNS) in detail. And then Afriag (AFRI). Its my birthday tomorrow and I have a present for Yusuf Kajee to celebrate. Incoming!
I could not sleep last night so spent several hours looking at filings by Alibaba (US:BABA), the world's largest IPO. They seem red flag strewn and I would have this one down as a slam dunk sell for 2016. There will be more on this to follow but I am just putting a marker in the sand. Back in the UK I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP), African Potash (AFPO) and LGO Energy (LGO)
In junk bond fund land the closures are accelerating. I look at what is going wrong and why it will go more wrong in 2016 and the UK PLCs which will find themselves deep in the merde as a result. I identify, Avanti Communications (AVN), Gulf Keystone (GKP) and IGas (IGAS) but I am sure you can think of others.
Featuring shares in Clontarf Energy (CLON), China Non Ferrous Gold (CNG), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Imaginatik (IMTK) and Reach4Entertainment (R4E) with share price targets set for all five stocks.
This was one of the sparkiest sessions at Gold & Bears and I loved it. Each of myself, the bard of the Boleyn (Lucian Miers), the Dark Destroyer (Matt Earl) and Baby Bear (Graham Neary) selelected two stocks we thought were going to zero and explained why. They were: Fastjet (FJET), AO World (AO), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Slater & Gordon (SGH), Avanti Communications (AVN), Plus500 (PLUS), Tungsten (TUNG) and - bugger me - I can't remember Matt's other pick. Watch the video to find out, its a stormer.
In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.
Featuring shares in Atlas Development (ADSS), Amur Minerals (AMC), Feedback (FDBK, Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Reach4Entertainment (R4E) with share price targets for all five stocks
It is short podcast time as I am having issued sending material back to the UK. The Albanians did not turn up today so the olive harvest is delayed by 24 hours. It may be delayed again if I have to head to Athens on Global Shorting Conspiracy business. Things are starting to get interesting as I mention briefly and this is NOT Globo (GBO). Elsewhere I cover Edenville (EDL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Sweet Group (CSG), Atlantic Coal (ATC), Iofina (IOF) and African Potash (AFPO). Warning: this podcast contains bad language and rather too many references to Britain's most talented chanteuse Ms Cheryl Cole.
The annual ritual is complete. The Mrs and I have photographed my morbidly obese three legged cat Oakley in his Christmas hat and even Tara played her part posing in the hat and in a stocking. And thus our rather un-Christian cards are now in production. Awway from that I have a long look at Slater & Gordon (SGH) where the management has just allowed the bears a chance to sell even more shares. Jabba The Hutt stocks Solo (SOLO) and LGO Energy (LGO) get a mention as does Aureus Mining (AUE) with its hugely discounted placing. Alba (ALBA) is clearly lining up its next confetti issue and I comment on that as well as Blur (BLUR), Outsourcery (OUT), Wandisco (WAND), Plant Health Care (PHC), Gulf Keystone (GKP) and NAHL (NAH), Finally I commend the CEO of ValiRx (VAL) who attended Gold & Bears on Saturday and was incredibly poilite. Memo to TW. I will be less beastly to her in 2016.
Malcolm Graham Wood is paid large sums of money by oil companies to write reports on their shares which - for obvious reasons - don't tend to be bearish. He does not declare if a company whose shares he is tipping has paid him to do so or not. As such his research should ALL be ignored. Commentators must be transparent in why they are writing. If they are not they are discredited and should be drummed out of town. As such I ignore this pompous lard-bucket.
Greetings from Brooklyn. The podcast starts with a look at dying Groupon and LivingSocial, dying unicorns. What does this tell us about buying shares in cash burning companies – think most stocks on AIM. Then it is onto Armstrong Ventures (AVP), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Iofina (IOF), Alecto (ALO) and Cloudbuy (CBUY). Sorry this is a short issue with no swearing at all, but a busy day beckons.
In today's podcast I start with my thoughts on the NHS. Guardian readers may wish to fast forward past that.Then it is onto assisting a twitter dickead (not David Lenigas) on Reach4Entertainment (R4E) and Nigel Wray. Then it is onto CDialogues (CDOG), blinkx (BLNX) and Havelock Europa (HVE). Finally a few more words on Gulf Keystone (GKP), Alba (ALBA) and Horse Hill.
Ben has produced yet another truly awful piece on Gulf Keystone GKP) today, Flip Flop is a stale long and wrong bull, I have called it spot on as a sell from 180p down to today’s 25.75p. But his offering today “facts about Gulf Keystone’s debt” is not based on fact and makes assertions that are ludicrous.
After my Gulf Keystone (GKP) piece last week (HERE) drew the predictable furious response from Winnifrith (HERE), I’ve been looking into the company’s numbers in a bit more detail. There’s no denying that Gulf is teetering on the edge. However, it is not dead yet. Although it has little to no room for error, so long as the Kurds keep up their regular payments, it is possible that Gulf will be able to pay down its debt and refinance its balance sheet by April 2017. A broker note found its way into my inbox today, broadly supporting this view. It contained some interesting observations on Gulf’s debt position worth sharing.
Featuring shares of 88 Energy (88E), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Metal Tiger (MTR), Sopheon (SPE), Sirius Petroleum (SRSP), together with some share price targets.
A few minutes ago flip flop Ben Turney - who has called this stock disastrously wrong - once again put the bull case for shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) at 27p. I've been a bear from 180p all the way down. I remain a bear. My initial target is sub 10p but this could be a zero. I explain all in another mini podcast.
In the next week we should find out whether or not the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is going to make good on its summer pledges. In August and September it promised to establish a regular payment cycle to the various oil producing companies active in the country for crude exports. Share prices of Gulf Keystone (GKP), Genel (GENL) and Norwegian firm DNO (DNO) leapt on the news. Two months and two payments later, the third should be due on or around 15 November. If Gulf receives another $15million, might this help restore some faith in the company’s future?
Featuring shares in Boxhill Technologies (BOX), Empyrean Energy (EME), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Oracle Coalfields (ORCP) and Vast Resources (VAST) with share price targets for all five stocks.
Featuring shares in Arria NLG (NLG), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Mariana Resources (MARL), Pan African Resources (PAF), Pinnacle Technology (PINN), Sareum (SAR), together with some share price targets.
In today's podcast I cheer on Paul Scott in his twitter battle with Roger Lawson (see HERE). Then it is onto Globo (GBO) and where we are now. Then I look at the companies announcing at no-one is watching O'Clock yesterday: IGAS (IGAS), EKF Diagnostics (EKF), ADVFN (AFN) and Gulf Keystone (GKP)
Featuring shares in Atlas Development (ADSS), Beowulf Mining (BEM), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Jubilee Platinum (JLP), Oxus Gold (OXS), Sovereign Mines of Africa (SMA) with share price targets for all six stocks.
Featuring shares in Afriag (AFRI), Castle Street Investments (CSI), Findel (FDL), Gulf Keystone (GSK), Intelligent Energy (IEH), New World Oil & Gas (NEW), Orsu Metals (OSU) with share price targets for all seven stocks.
At 32p Gulf Keystone (GKP) is worth £313million. This morning, the company announced its updated Competent Persons Report (CPR) for its oil & gas interests in Kurdistan. The numbers are impressive, but the market reaction has been muted, with Gulf now trading flat on the day. When a company increases its 1P Reserves by a better than expected 55% this would normally be cause for celebration, even in today’s oil price environment. However, as we all know, Gulf’s main challenge isn’t getting oil out of the ground. It is ensuring it gets paid.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at shares of APR Energy (APR), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Oxus Gold (OXS) and offer some share price targets.
Sadly for us bears most of the slam dunk mid-cap AIM shorts have already gone our way. We have had great sport with Monitise, Tungsten, Quindell, Range Resources, LGO Energy, Cupid, Globo (still more to come there), Gulf Keystone, etc. We won. The Bulletin Board Morons lost. Only Avanti Communications is still left to topple. It will. But now I think we have a new quarry to stalk: Boohoo.com (BOO) looks a slam dunk short at 33p.
Featuring shares in Armadale Capital (ACP), Clear Leisure (CLP), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Transense Technologies (TRT), Tyratech (TYRU), together with some share price targets.
Featuring shares in EMED Mining (EMED), Ferrum Crescent (FCR), Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Plutus Powergen (PPG) with share price targets for all five
Mug punters in search of get rich quick opportunities on the seedy AIM casino seem to have abandoned resource stocks for the moment which is no surprise given the price of gold, oil and the general slump in commodities. China Frauds also seem to have lost their lustre.
Featuring shares of Gulf Keystone (GKP), Kibo Mining (KIBO), Pathfinder Minerals (PFP), Range Resources (RRL), Reach4Entertainment (R4E), Trinity Exploration (TRIN), together with some share price targets.
Featuring shares of Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR), Edge Resources (EDG), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Kenmare Resources (KMR), Solo Oil (SOLO), W Resources (WRES), together with some share price targets.
The Bear shares portfolio I outlined for summer on 19 July HERE is doing pretty well i.e tanking. Yesterday I outlined my reasons for continuing to remain bearish at a macro level HERE and I also refer to an excellent piece on Zero Hedge HERE. Then I return to the bear portfolio which is:
Featuring shares in AMC Minerals (AMC), Falkland Oil & Gas (FOG), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Optibiotix (OPTI), Rockhopper Exploration (RKH), Xtract Resources (XTR) with share price targets for all
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) surged yesterday from a low of 26p to a high of 36p, triggered by news of a pledge by the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) that it will start making monthly payments to its oil producers from September. This morning, Gulf’s stock has settled back to 33.5p (last seen), valuing the business at £327.6million. This is towards the bottom of the company’s trading range since the start of the year and after yesterday’s excitement the question is, is Gulf a buy?
Featuring Gulf Keystone (GKP), Jubilee Platinum (JLP), Phorm Corporation (PHRM), Rare Earth Minerals (REM), Stratmin Global (STGR), Vast Resources (VAST)
Featuring Cap-XX (CPX), Forte Energy (FTE), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Globo (GBO), Imaginatik (IMTK), LGO Energy (LGO)
Featuring Gulf Keystone (GKP), LGO Energy (LGO), Metminco (MNC), Northcote Energy (NCT), Sirius Petroleum (SRSP), Vast Resources (VAST)
Featuring Clontarf Energy (CLON), Edenville Energy (EDL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Tavistock Investments (TAVI)
Okay, the sabbatical really does start this week so maybe not that many bearcasts from now. But for today I explain why the market will be harder for non profit stocks and on that basis I start with a reference to my 21 stock death list of last month (Afren looks to be the first to fall) HERE but also refer to the excellent must read piece by Lucian Miers yesterday HERE. And then I launch into my 10 top shorts for summer. Companies mentioned are:
This lunchtime, Worldview released details of the subject matter of the EGM it has called for at Petroceltic International (PCI). In response to the “past history of very poor financial management and false claims”, Worldview now seeks to place restrictions on the board and to stop it pledging the company’s “crown jewel, namely its participation in the Ain Tsila asset, as a security for a contemplated $175 million bond issuance”. Reading through Worldview’s full announcement and it looks like things are about to get bloody over at Petroceltic.
Featuring African Potash (AFPO), Asian Citrus (ACHL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Iofina (IOF), Servision (SEV), Sirius Minerals (SXX).
For “the world’s most successful growth market” the mortality rate of companies that list on AIM is shocking. Since the start of 2001, an estimated 1,937 companies have delisted from AIM, seeing shareholders in most cases lose everything. Whether taken private or simply bankrupted, it is a terrible indictment of this market that c.54% of all the businesses that have floated on it in the past 14 years have just disappeared. Curiously, Grant Thornton chose not to mention this when it compiled its report to celebrate AIM’s 20th Birthday.
Once again IT issues in Greece delay this podcast. I start by explianing why the reaction of Paul Scott and the craven deadwood press to the new national living wage proposed by George Osborne displays 100% economic illiteracy. It is simply a transfer of wealth from business to the State, the poor will gain nothing. Then onto defending David Lenigas and Andrew Bell from some of the sillier comments made by some folk and to explian why flip flop Ben Turney is again wrong on New World Oil & Gas. hats off to Paul Curtis for the silliest remark of the day as I stck the boot into Gulf Keystone and then also to the prep, pump and dump at Beowulf Mining. And finally I have another go at biotech dog ValiRx.
This morning’s announcement from Gulf Keystone (GKP) had the decided whiff of a profits’ warning about it. It is extremely frustrating when companies dress bad news up. I appreciate the importance shoring up sentiment has, but if a company has to warn shareholders that it is going to miss its financial targets it surely must be an inviolable principle of transparent markets that it explicitly says so. Today’s example from Gulf could prove to be a perfect case in point and doesn’t bode well for new CEO Jón Ferrier’s attitude towards investor relations.
Featuring Edge Resources (EDG), Ferrex (FRX), EMED Mining (EMED), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Northcote Energy (NCT) and Nostra Terra Oil & Gas (NTOG)
Featuring Coal of Africa (CZA), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Kalimantan Gold (KLG), Red Emperor Resources (RMP)
When a share price collapses it is often tempting to go bottom fishing on the basis that the fall is overdone. Some people use this as an investment strategy: look for the biggest fallers of the day and buy them: hoping that the bigger the fall, the bigger the bounce will be. Sometimes this works but it’s usually down to luck rather than judgement and more often than not ends in tears.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at Globo, Gulf Keystone, Tristel
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at Cyan, Gulf Keystone and Infrastrata.
It seems that my comments in yesterday's bearcast on Gulf Keystone have sent cheerleader for the Gulf loons Paul Curtis into a bit of a frenzy. And so while he takes a bit of medication to calm down I have another go. Then, via Igas, it is on to Horse Hill where today's press coverage is shockingly bad and I have another detailed review of what on earth is going on.
Apologies for overlooking the truly dreadful smoke and mirrors 2014 results from Gulf Keystone (GKP) last week. In this podcast I look back and flag up a few points the bulls might have overlooked while out on day release from the asylum.
I received shedloads of abuse when I first suggested selling Gulf Keystone (GKP) several moons ago at 186p – the shares are now 36p but where are the apologies? The sell case has changed but is in fact stronger now – my initial target is 10p.
It has just been announced that Mr Rob Terry now owns 7.4% of Daniel Stewart. Is it THE Rob Terry, fraudster, insider dealer and crook? I explain why that Rob Terry owes Daniel Stewart a favour plus there is a follow up on Gulf Keystone.
In today's podcast recorded with my cats Tara and the morbidly obese three legged Oakley listening carefully I look at Daniel Stewart (more to come on that), Coms, Hunter Resources, Gulf Keystone and free speech on ShareProphets, Premaitha, Aquatic Foods, Nanoco and - in detail - Northern Petroleum
Gulf Keystone (GKP) has managed to raise $40 million before expenses (let’s call that $38 million via a heavily discounted placing at 32p. This is a can kick. It is applying a sticky plaster when your arm just fell off. Bond holders will be laughing, for shareholders the wailing and gnashing of teeth is far from over.
Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) board might not be popular among shareholders at the moment, but it’s been left with little choice. The likely trigger of the Book Equity Ratio (“BER”) Put Option, when the company announces its next set of results, is a looming disaster for the company. If activated, Gulf will be required to make an offer to repurchase all of its $250million 13% Notes, issued last April, for $252.5million plus accrued and unpaid interest, at around the end of September. Given that Gulf had cash of $86.3million prior to this morning’s placement, and appears to be burning about $4million a month, shareholders were facing an Afren’esque (AFR) wipeout. After this morning’s actions, at least there is a glimmer of hope.
I save the best, Quindell, to the end of the podcast but ahead of that cover Gulfsands Petroleum, Igas, Gulf Keystone, Northern Petroleum, Mosman Oil & Gas, Afren, Digital Globe ( read Steve's piece HERE), Daniel Stewart, Gate Ventures before ending with Quenron and PWC.
Gulf Keystone (GKP) reminded potential suitors on Thursday why there was no reason to pay top dollar for it with the news that permission was needed from the 13% bondholders to avert the exercise of a put option which has been triggered by a fall in its asset value.
Just a quick mention of the 57 year old punk who made my week - the full article is HERE. In the main podcast I look at oil stocks and ask is it time to buy? The answer is no - Gulf Keystone and Afren could both still fall by another 75%. I look at them, Igas and Mosman. Then onto why small City brokers are ALL failing and what needs to change
I start the podcast today with a little joke for Gareth at Sirius Minerals before dealing with Afren, Gulf Keystone, Mosman, Kea, Touchstone Gold, Cloudbuy, Powerhouse Energy and Gate Ventures. Steve Berry, you crony capitalist, I have a little song for you.
My podcast today was delayed by a lot of sleep. But I hope that it is worth the wait. I discuss the next Nomad to face scandal, have some very serious questions for Daniel Stewart PLC and look at Gate Ventures, Mosman, Soco and Gulf Keystone in detail.
By the time this goes live I shall be in the High Court. I comment briefy, sing a song for a regular listener and then move onto ADVFN PLC with some observatuons, on the nature of Bulletin Boards and onto Gulf Keystone
Recorded outside the Kourounis Taverna in Kambos for reasons I explain this podcast starts with Mariana Resources as I try - and fail - to be charitable. I move into Quindell, Tower Resources, Mar City, Gulf Keystone, APR Energy and Afren.
I stand accused yet again of insulting the entire investment community and of delighting in folks losing money. Au contraire, I delight when Bulletin Board Morons lose money but that is just a small group of those who use BBs.
I urge you all to listen to the earlier Quindell special podcast HERE as that slam dunk shows why the firm is bust and worth 0p. In this audio I also cover Afren, TXO, Gulf Keystone, Bacanora, David Lenigas, Circle Oil and Northcote Energy
The good news: Worthington's lawyers letter issued today is not from Pinsent Masons and so as per my deal with God earlier I can carry on drinking, swearing and thinking about Cheryl Cole. In short: the letter has arrived and I shall see you in short bitchez! I am not a man for backing down. The bad news, my critics have anounced they will smear my 78 year old Dad as well as me. I feel a bit of white rage coming on here. At a company level I discuss Trap Oil, Gulf Keystone and Tangent Communications.
I start - as I would always do when I err - with an apology and correction on Scholium as per yesterday's Bearcast. I then go onto high handed CEOs who say they do not care about Private Investors and get a big come uppance. Step forward the little shit who runs Northern Petroleum, Keith Bush. I comment on Inspirit and Ambrian and going back to oil I disagree strngly with Ben Turney (HERE), Gulf Keystone remains a stonking sell. I also touch on Igas, Afren and Hurricane. En passant I touch on the china frauds like China Chaitek and Camkids.
If there is one topic guaranteed to start a row at ShareProphets HQ it is Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP). We all know who is on which side and so far I’ve been fighting a losing battle. The collapse in the oil price has hurt this company, but possibly not as much as the specific challenges it faces in getting paid for the oil it produces (oh, and let’s not forget the rampaging nutters currently marauding through the region). On Friday, Gulf disappointed the market with news it had suspended oil exports, pending resolution of a “stable payment cycle”. The share price dropped sharply to settle just above the 52-week low, but are things as bad as the market implies?
I am in a good mood. Why am I in a good mood? I do not know.. But I am. And thus I am well set to be beastly to everybody but I think that I have just managed a whole podcast without swearing. Let's put that down as a first but not a precedent. On this edition I discuss oil prices and Max Petroleum, Afren, Igas and Gulf Keystone. What does blood on the streets mean for this sector. I look at Scholium, Oracle Coalfields and also why I am right to be bearish and Comrade Malcolm Stacey is wrong to be bullish about equities.
In today's podcast I look at Afren, a general point about whether institutional ownership validates a stock, Hunter Resources, Golden Saint Resources, Tomco, Powerhouse Energy, Tate & Lyle and Gulf Keystone (please note morons, TW vindicated again)
Cripes, I sometimes think that I am a sad git. Here I am preparing for my birthday on Monday and what am I doing? I’m talking to Steve Moore about the next share tip we are publishing on the Nifty Fifty website. Sad or what?
The Oil price slide throws up some interesting opportunities on the AIM market. I have shorted a basket of five stocks on the basis that if it continues to fall or stays at these levels they will get into serious financial difficulty very rapidly. If it rallies the upside is hopefully limited by management practices that are unlikely to reward shareholders.
In Part 1 of this pair of articles I took a look at Gulf Keystone (GKP). In Part 2 I revisit two more of my picks from the summer, Bowleven (BLVN) and President Energy (PPC). With the outlook for oil prices as bearish as it is, is there much to be positive about for either stock?
Two and a half years ago I wrote this article, outlining the apparent direct relationship between the movement of the price of oil and the introduction of Quantitative Easing. Even though I’ve had this at the back of my mind since, I failed utterly to anticipate the recent price collapse of the black stuff, in response to the withdrawal of QE by the Federal Reserve. This should have been an incredible trading opportunity, not least because the move appears to have wrong-footed so many in the market. In grappling for an explanation, most commentators have settled on a consensus that oil’s fall from Grace is down to fundamental reasons and the lack of global growth. Anyone who has followed the Baltic Dry Index over the last few years will know this is nonsense. Given that the outlook for the price of oil looks decidedly weak, it’s time to revisit three stocks I assessed over the summer and look for any possible signs of encouragement.
Normally BearCast is just a weekday podcast feature. However in light of the plunge in global stockmarkets and the oil price on Friday I have served up a special. I make explicit warnings about how you should protect your wealth next week. This website was termed “Prophets of Doom” by another website which has encouraged you to buy shares generally and crap like Quindell (QPP) in particular. We are being vindicated in a massive way across the board. In that spirit I urge you all to listen hard.
Once again this website has exposed fraud, lies and deceit on the AIM casino – with regard to New World Oil & Gas (NEW). The statement from today vindicates everything that we have written and it has vindicated our approach. To the Bulletin Board Morons who attacked our articles as they averaged down I have no sympathy. You were warned but you insulted us. And you know who is next….
Shares in Quenron (QPP) plunged last week to close last week at 136.5p. They are now more than 75% off their highs. Where do we go next? Down obviously. The question is when not if they hit 0p. And here’s why.
Okay its time for the Bulletin Board Morons to apologise to me YET AGAIN – today’s victory is Monitise (MONI), shares in which have crashed to 31p as Visa has said that it wants out. My 10p target price stands.
It was only the other day that a Bulletin Board Moron owning shares in Naibu (NBU) referred to me as Winnifraud, accusing me of making it all up. Hey presto come Friday there were dire interims and t is clear that it is not me that is the Norfolk and the moron saw his investment slump in value by another 40%. Worse is to come as I shall reveal later today. But this follows the same pattern as we have seen with Range Resources, Sefton, Vialogy, Globo, Quindell, Iofina, blinkx, Gulf Keystone, Outsourcery etc. etc. Folks like myself and Paul Scott, the great share blogger, point out obvious reasons to sell and all we get is abuse. Paul posted this on ShareProphets yesterday re Naibu
I just finished speaking with Gulf Keystone (GKP) CEO John Gerstenlauer and he has confirmed that the skilled technicians required to complete the final hook up of Shaikan 10 are flying to Kurdistan from Canada this week. In Mr Gerstenlauer’s words “we are still on track for 40,000bopd by the end of the year”. Hitting this target, by the self-imposed deadline, will be a significant milestone for Gulf. The company has been criticised in the past for slippages. In meeting the 40,000bopd goal this could go a long way to proving to the market that this business is finally on the cusp of fulfilling its vast potential. Mr Gerstenlauer is clearly confident of this being achievable subject to the security situation remaining stable.
Ben Turney wrote HERE that he gave Gulf Keystone (GKP) the benefit of the doubt after its analysts presentation last week. I do not.
So much hype and hysteria surrounds Gulf Keystone (GKP) that determining a valuation can be an unnecessarily emotional affair. I’ve been increasingly bullish on the stock, since the publication of the Competent Persons Report. However, today’s numbers have given me pause for thought. At 77.5p (last seen), Gulf is valued at £688million. For a company which produced 2.2million barrels of oil in the first half, there is no escaping from the high degree of expectation priced into this stock.
As Iraq adjusts to a new Prime Minister (not a military coup, Tom) and the US Air Force rains down fury on IS fighters, the Kurds have quietly continued to make progress in supplying the international market with their oil. Reuters is on top of this story and over the last few weeks I’ve had a couple of Google Alerts trigger with news of the status of different Kurdish oil shipments. Of all the reports and rumours currently circling around Gulf Keystone (GKP), this could well prove to be the most significant in the long run.
Ben Turney today suggested that US intervention in Iraq would see Isis beaten back and is thus an opportunity to buy Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Genel. He cites some curious examples to back this thesis up
I’ve spent a little time this morning wondering how I could write about events in Kurdistan. It is horrible hoping to profit out of human suffering, but I’ve had to remind myself the market is amoral. It simply reflects the good and the bad of our society, for better or worse. I’ve chosen to be a market commentator and it is more than probable that if you are reading this piece you’ve chosen to buy stocks. However we might feel about what is happening in the world, in this aspect of our lives our goal is simply to grow our wealth by as much as we can. Fear often leads to the best buying opportunities. It is generally a costly mistake to ignore this. The precipitous drop in the value of the various companies with Kurdish oil ventures could prove to be a significant opportunity for anyone who believes in the long term viability of these operations.
President Obama has now ordered his warplanes to bomb some ISIS Islamofascist loons off to a place where they get to meet 72 virgins. He is now off on a 2 week golfing holiday. If you think that this will save the Kurd oil plays in London - Genel (GENL) and Gulf Keystone (GKP) here is why you are wrong.
On a financial level I have always been bearish on Gulf Keystone (GKP) long arguing that the shares were really only worth 30-50p – something that has not endeared me to the Bulletin Board Morons. Well I guess I was right. But what has changed to make this an outright slam dunk short sell? Answer: ISIS.
In the last two years my seven most covered bear selections have been: Gulf Keystone (GKP), Iofina (IOF), Cupid (CUP), Quindell (QPP), Globo (GBO) Avanti(AVN) and Purecircle (PURE). With the exception of Purecircle, the other six are all firm retail favourites and I often wonder what it is that draws the private punter like a flame-bound moth to such eminently shortable stocks. One can highlight various useful themes but all seem to throw up exceptions – modestly I point oiut these have all bar one (so far) been great short calls by my good self.
Are you serious about making money from shares? Yes? There are three reasons to read on as a matter of some urgency.
It is always extremely difficult to pass comment on companies from the outside, without really knowing what has happened behind closed boardroom doors. Even so, I am as certain as I can be that my call last month, that M&G Investment Management was preparing to dump Todd Kozel from Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) board at today’s AGM, has come to pass. We’ve just heard that Mr Kozel has withdrawn his bid for re-election to Gulf’s board, but with this announcement coming immediately before the AGM, I think we can all be fairly safe in assuming it was a case of his jumping before being pushed. Even though Mr Kozel is going to remain as an officer of the company, his departure from the board is a welcome step in the right direction and I am more bullish on Gulf’s prospects as a result.
Last week we asked readers to vote on which company they thought would be next to send a lawyer’s letter to myself, Tom Winnifrith. The readers have spoken clearly - exactly half of those taking part think that Quindell (QPP) is about to piss its shareholders cash away with a legal threat.
It looks like little old Scotland’s referendum on independence is proving to be a catalyst for similar movements around the world. The Scottish precedent has the potential to cause a great deal of upheaval, as previously recognised international borders (often rooted in the imperialist past) melt away and fledgling nation states spring up. As a good old fashioned liberal, I view this as a good thing. Why shouldn’t people be able to vote on who governs them? I’ll admit I don’t hold too much interest in the vote for Scottish independence, other than the provocative view if they are allowed to vote on remaining part of the Union, shouldn’t we English also be granted the opportunity to decide whether or not to allow them (and their tax subsidies) to stay?! But before I unleash another wave of Twitter abuse against our site, let’s move swiftly on to events in Kurdistan.
The Sheriff of AIM is feeling rather fragile today in the wake of the AIM Cesspit awards dinner. Do not expect a great deal of output from me today. I had a good time and think that others did too. The wine and beer flowed freely, Evil and Lucian Miers gave good talks and David Lenigas pitched in with his thoughts on Nomads. A brave Quindell (QPP) shareholder turned up and was teased a bit but took it well. But you want to know who won.
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) have soared in recent days partly on hopes that Todd Kozel would be given the boot at the AGM on 17th July but also on speculation that the company could receive a takeover approach. We understand from a reliable source that there will be no bid.
I have not had a lawyer’s letter for more than two weeks. I can only conclude either that the greedy fat cat City Bully Boy lawyers are all sipping corporate champagne at Wimbledon or that I am slipping and being too much of a nice guy for my own good. It is only a matter of time and so I invite readers to guess who will send me my next lawyer’s letter. And, to help you select which scumbags are likely to win, I offer a handy form guide.
As the market works itself up into a lather about the prospect of a bid for Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP), the significance of Wednesday’s events appear to have been missed by most shareholders. The headline news was Todd Kozel’s retirement as CEO of the company and his plan to remain as an executive director. The assumption appears to be Mr Kozel will see his wish granted in the vote held on his reappointment, at the AGM on July 17th. I’m not so sure. The departure of three of the four non-executive directors, whom M&G Investment Mgt managed to get appointed to Gulf’s board immediately before the last AGM, surely signals an escalation in the boardroom conflict that has plagued Gulf for too long. And now M&G is no longer playing nice...
It now looks like the recent weakness in Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) share price has been caused by not one, but two civil wars. I covered events in northern Iraq a fortnight ago, yet it is boardroom infighting that is once again the greater concern. Greed does funny things to people and it is high time the directors of Gulf grew up and got their acts together. Failing that, they should just take off their shirts and go and wrestle in the car park until one side cries uncle. Anything would be better than having to watch this never-ending struggle for control of the company.
You could not make it up. Some folks cannot but help pick overpriced glamour stocks which crash. Meet Mike Bowen who tweets as @lookatbowen and who first spring to my attention as he tweeted @tomwinnifrith the only person certifiable is you Tom – Oooh er missus. I guess he owns Quindell (QPP) then.
I probably shouldn’t write this piece. Making personal judgement on geopolitical events inevitably results in oversimplification and, almost certainly, misunderstanding. I’ve never been to Kurdistan, so the truth is I can’t really have any real insight to what on earth is happening over there. However, my money is mine to do with as I please, and I suspect that the current pullback in Gulf Keystone (GKP) will present an excellent buying opportunity.
The two stocks most beloved by Bulletin Board Morons are Quindell (QPP) and Gulf Keystone (GKP). I have got death threats, shit in the post, a hate campaign against my restaurant for questioning both companies. I am not gloating about the losses suffered by “innocent shareholders.” But the losses suffered by those who have tormented me trying to gag free speech and legitimate questioning cause me no sorrow. Quindell shares have plunged today as it failed to move from the AIM Cesspit to the main market (see HERE) but Gulf is also down by 12.5% at 79.3p: blame leverage and Al Qaeda.
Two weeks ago Tom Winnifrith and Lucian Miers recorded a series of four videos which first appeared on their Nifty Fifty website. This video covers Globo (GBO), blinkx (BLNX), Avanto Communications (AVN), Iofina (IOF) and Quindell (QPP).
So many to choose from and so little time to think – who am I nominating for these prestigious awards? Ultimately it is down to you, the investing public to vote on who wins, but for what it is worth my nominations have been:
On Wednesday infamous bear raider Lucian Miers and Tom Winnifrith recorded a series of four videos. The first covers the markets. The second and third cover “old favourites” for the bears: Globo, blinkx, Avanti Communications, Gulf Keystone, Naibu and Iofina. The fourth covers some new Lucian shorts.
I have noted before how the yield to maturity on Gulf Keystone (GKP) Bonds was a terrifying sell signal on the equity. For folks who have ignored me I have bad news: it is getting worse.
I think that you must be aware by now that I have major concerns about the way that AIM operates. The way that money is raised is bad enough in that it creates two classes of investors. The amount of shareholders cash spent on share promotion as opposed to creating value is alarming. But my real gripe is that companies appear able to tell outright lies and get away with it.
I am trying as hard as I can to be open-minded about the prospects of Gulf Keystone (GKP). Yesterday, Tom penned another bearish piece on Gulf, in response to the morning’s Interim Management Statement. He raised some valid points, but where I felt his analysis fell short was he didn’t take into account what was promised in the recent Competent Persons Report.
Oh dear, oh dear, today’s trading statement from Gulf Keystone (GKP) is a bit of a dog’s doo doo. I fear that the bears will enjoy it and having suggested that the stock might be a trading buy on the basis that grossly overpaid CEO Todd Kozel might be about to get his P45, I now revert to my normal sell stance – so far utterly vindicated with the share price having dived today to 91p.
Thursday will be a day of birthday celebrations for Frank Lampard and Nichole Kidman, but will Gulf Keystone shareholders be cracking open the Champagne, or hitting themselves over the head with a bottle of Babycham when the annual results are revealed?
The recent rebound in Gulf Keystone shares means that they are fast approaching not only the level of the broken two-year uptrend line at £1.70, but also what can be described as the coastal level, the £1.67 zone where CEO Todd Kozel transferred 10 million ordinary shares to a third party.
I offer no comment on this weekly feature it is a simple matter of observation.
A few weeks ago I described Genel as being a rich man's Gulf Keystone. Ironically it would appear that in the wake of the latest Kurdistan oil discovery from the two groups, Genel may have itself contributed to help making Gulf Keystone a rather richer version of itself than the bears may feel comfortable with.
As you might imagine over recent weeks have become quite a keen follower of the news wires in terms of the latest developments at Gulf Keystone. I also keep an eye on what the latest targets are for the oil and gas explorer. It would appear that we are looking at anywhere between £10 and 10p as far as the forecast price targets for this much followed / sacred cow of a company.
I offer no comment on this weekly feature it is a simple matter of observation. The two tables below show the most active discussions on the ADVFN and iii Bulletin Boards as of a Thursday morning.