Keyword results: John Gerstenlauer

GKP
GKP

Gulf Keystone: was that a profits warning?

This morning’s announcement from Gulf Keystone (GKP) had the decided whiff of a profits’ warning about it. It is extremely frustrating when companies dress bad news up. I appreciate the importance shoring up sentiment has, but if a company has to warn shareholders that it is going to miss its financial targets it surely must be an inviolable principle of transparent markets that it explicitly says so. Today’s example from Gulf could prove to be a perfect case in point and doesn’t bode well for new CEO Jón Ferrier’s attitude towards investor relations.

GKP
GKP

Gulf Keystone determined not to go the way of Afren

Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) board might not be popular among shareholders at the moment, but it’s been left with little choice. The likely trigger of the Book Equity Ratio (“BER”) Put Option, when the company announces its next set of results, is a looming disaster for the company. If activated, Gulf will be required to make an offer to repurchase all of its $250million 13% Notes, issued last April, for $252.5million plus accrued and unpaid interest, at around the end of September. Given that Gulf had cash of $86.3million prior to this morning’s placement, and appears to be burning about $4million a month, shareholders were facing an Afren’esque (AFR) wipeout. After this morning’s actions, at least there is a glimmer of hope.

GKP
GKP

Gulf Keystone; fighting for survival or negotiating well?

If there is one topic guaranteed to start a row at ShareProphets HQ it is Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP). We all know who is on which side and so far I’ve been fighting a losing battle. The collapse in the oil price has hurt this company, but possibly not as much as the specific challenges it faces in getting paid for the oil it produces (oh, and let’s not forget the rampaging nutters currently marauding through the region). On Friday, Gulf disappointed the market with news it had suspended oil exports, pending resolution of a “stable payment cycle”. The share price dropped sharply to settle just above the 52-week low, but are things as bad as the market implies?

GKP
GKP

Three oil calls revisited; Gulf Keystone, Bowleven & President Energy Part 1

Two and a half years ago I wrote this article, outlining the apparent direct relationship between the movement of the price of oil and the introduction of Quantitative Easing. Even though I’ve had this at the back of my mind since, I failed utterly to anticipate the recent price collapse of the black stuff, in response to the withdrawal of QE by the Federal Reserve. This should have been an incredible trading opportunity, not least because the move appears to have wrong-footed so many in the market. In grappling for an explanation, most commentators have settled on a consensus that oil’s fall from Grace is down to fundamental reasons and the lack of global growth. Anyone who has followed the Baltic Dry Index over the last few years will know this is nonsense. Given that the outlook for the price of oil looks decidedly weak, it’s time to revisit three stocks I assessed over the summer and look for any possible signs of encouragement.

GKP
GKP

ShareProphets Exclusive; Gulf Keystone technical team returns to Kurdistan this week!

I just finished speaking with Gulf Keystone (GKP) CEO John Gerstenlauer and he has confirmed that the skilled technicians required to complete the final hook up of Shaikan 10 are flying to Kurdistan from Canada this week. In Mr Gerstenlauer’s words “we are still on track for 40,000bopd by the end of the year”. Hitting this target, by the self-imposed deadline, will be a significant milestone for Gulf. The company has been criticised in the past for slippages. In meeting the 40,000bopd goal this could go a long way to proving to the market that this business is finally on the cusp of fulfilling its vast potential. Mr Gerstenlauer is clearly confident of this being achievable subject to the security situation remaining stable.

GKP
GKP

Giving Gulf Keystone the benefit of the doubt

So much hype and hysteria surrounds Gulf Keystone (GKP) that determining a valuation can be an unnecessarily emotional affair. I’ve been increasingly bullish on the stock, since the publication of the Competent Persons Report. However, today’s numbers have given me pause for thought. At 77.5p (last seen), Gulf is valued at £688million. For a company which produced 2.2million barrels of oil in the first half, there is no escaping from the high degree of expectation priced into this stock.

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