Keyword results: Lucian Miers

IMB
IMB
PREMIUM CONTENT

Imperial Brands – interims, still some Income value

Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced results for its half year ended 31st March 2022 emphasising “stabilisation of our core combustible business” and “successful consumer trials validate our approach and strengthen our confidence in our Next Generation Product strategy”. This sounds encouraging.

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JLP
JLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jubilee Metals – expansion delivery, financial delivery to follow...

Jubilee Metals (JLP) has announced a performance update of its new and expanded fully integrated South African Inyoni PGM and chrome operations and its Zambian southern copper strategy. So what’s the situation, with the shares having responded up to 15.4p?

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Lucian Miers: Amigo the simplest UK slam dunk short, target price 2p ( now 6.35p)

Lucian Miers’ (the bear raider) top three UK short positions are:

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AEX Gold – adds further exploration potential, still a Buy

AEX Gold (AEXG) is pleased to announce its addition of mineral exploration licences No. 2020-41 and 2021-11, covering areas in South Greenland.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Macfarlane – AGM trading update, upgrades after half-year?

Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced “a solid start to 2022, with first quarter sales and profits from continuing operations ahead of the same period in 2021… expectations for the full year are unchanged”. So what of a current 120.5p share price?

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In the coming recession no hope if no moat

I suspect that very few investors and surprisingly few PLC directors have any idea what a recession looks like. For starters most folks in both camps are rich but in a recession, it is the poor or lower middle classes who get whacked hardest. That is especially so when it is an inflationary recession as those lower down the order tend to have the least ability to “play catch up” by forcing through pay rises. And secondly you have to be of a certain age to remember a savage inflationary recession as an adult – the last one was ended with some fairly painful medicine by the blessed Lady Thatcher forty years ago.

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BP
BP

BP – Q1 update, Income Buy

BP (BP.) has announced a first quarter of the year $20.4 billion loss... though also reduced net debt to $27.5 billion, a maintained 5.46 cents per share dividend and a proposed further $2.5 billion share buyback. So what’s going on?

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DS Smith – “pre-close statement” and enters new financial year with confidence

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced year ending 30th April “trading in line with management expectations… enter the next financial year with confidence”, helping the shares up to 325.6p.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Fresnillo – Q1 production ‘on target’, Buy

Fresnillo (FRES) has announced first quarter of the year production including attributable silver production of 13.28 million ounces and gold production of 0.15 million ounces and that, despite challenges, “2022 guidance remains unchanged”.

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AEX Gold – 2021 results, significant news flow soon...

AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced 2021 calendar year results and that it “is very well placed for the year ahead and investors will have a lot of news to digest”.

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VP
VP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Vp plc – majority shareholder sparks formal sale process, still time to Buy

Shares in equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) closed at 820p before the latest news. However, they are now up to 940p on news that it is now considered “appropriate to investigate the sale of the company and is therefore launching a formal sale process”. So what now?

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GSK
GSK
PREMIUM CONTENT

GlaxoSmithKline – Q1 update, still further share price upside as demerger nears

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has announced its first quarter of the year results and that it reconfirms its full-year 2022 guidance. We are well ahead on this share tip where we are also drinking our own medicine so what to do now?

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SWG
SWG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Shearwater – full-year trading update, ahead of expectations, don't bank gains yet!

Cybersecurity group Shearwater (SWG) has emphasised a “set of market-beating numbers… we remain excited for what the future holds”. What of a share price response up to 140p?

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Ferrexpo – 2021 results, continuing to operate in Ukraine and Waseem Shakoor is buying, we agree: BUY

Iron ore pellet producer, Ferrexpo (FXPO), has announced results for the 2021 calendar year, and that it has continued to operate, launching a significant humanitarian programme to assist those directly impacted by the Russian invasion.

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CEY
CEY
PREMIUM CONTENT

Centamin – Q1 update, production fall expected and we can now look to better times ahead

Centamin (CEY) has announced a quarterly update including “as planned, Q1 2022 production reflected the successful transition to owner mining in the underground… reiterates its 2022 full-year guidance”, so what of a share price response currently down closer to 90p?

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FLO
FLO
PREMIUM CONTENT

Flowtech Fluidpower – a buy for further recovery?

Shares in Flowtech Fluidpower (FLO) remain below levels of earlier this year despite recent results showing encouraging recovery and noting an encouraging start to this year, with there looking to be scope for further recovery in profitability and for the share price.

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AAZ
AAZ
PREMIUM CONTENT

Anglo Asian Mining – Q1 update, additional production on the way - BUY

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced it “is pleased to provide a production, sales and operations review for its Gedabek contract area in western Azerbaijan, for the three months to 31 March 2022”. So, what of the shares responding slightly higher to 95p?

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Ferrexpo – continuing production and sales despite its operations being in Ukraine

Iron-ore pellets producer, Ferrexpo (FXPO), has announced - despite operational constraints following Russia's invasion of Ukraine - “production of 2.7 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2022, representing a figure in line with the same period in 2021, and 11% below the previous quarter… Sales in 1Q 2022 of 2.6 million tonnes… net cash position of approximately US$159 million”.

SWG
SWG

Shearwater – major contract win for a winning share tip: set for earnings upgrades?

Cybersecurity group, Shearwater (SWG), has announced a “new contract win, to the potential value of up to c.£21.0m, with a leading telecommunications and media company”, helping its shares more than 25% higher, to 138p, in response.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Canadian Overseas Petroleum Ltd and the Charlatan in Charge

In response to some dynamite exposes on Shareprophets about Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited (COPL), the company released a bizarre RNS in which the sole executive, Arthur Millholland, dismissed his critics, mainly Tom Winnifrith, as snake oil salesmen and expressed “renewed confidence” about the future. Pots and kettles spring to mind here when Millholland’s track record is taken into consideration.

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VP
VP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Vp plc – trading “ahead of expectations”, still a recovery Buy

Equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) has issued a trading update announcement which is headlined “Expected performance ahead of expectations driven by increased demand”. This sounds good.

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AEX Gold – Nalunaq exploration drilling results suggest very real upside potential: BUY

AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced exploration drilling results from its Nalunaq project, which, it emphasises, verify that the Valley Block, unrecognised by previous operators, is a new high-grade zone and supports its 'Dolerite Dyke Model'. This, it says, has been used to predict the location and extent of five new high-grade zones.

IMB
IMB

Imperial Brands – half-year trading update, still good value?

Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced in a trading update “first-half adjusted group operating profit ahead of last year on constant currency basis” and full-year outlook in line with guidance.

VRS
VRS
PREMIUM CONTENT

Thoughts as Q1 comes to a Welcome Close - 3 sure fire shorts

As Q1 limps to a close, it is difficult to see clearly through the fog of war. Mindful, doubtless, of the Covid aftermath – which bottomed almost exactly two years ago and led to a spectacular rally in stocks – investors have returned, and the sell-off seems to have petered out.

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OptiBiotix Health – following recent developments, how does the valuation stack up?

Shares are now ‘ex-dividend’ for Optibiotix’s ‘ProBiotix Health’ business, which will be spun off onto the AQSE Growth Market – with an associated fundraise – at the end of this month. Additionally, SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX), in which it has a 20.73% stake, has just announced half-year results – that the market did not like. So, how does the valuation stack up now?

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IMB
IMB

Imperial Brands – “Update on Russia and Revised Guidance”, Buy

Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced an update on its actions and impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concluding on Russia “an orderly transfer of our business as a going concern would be in the best interests… have begun negotiations with a local third party about a transfer”.

PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – intention to list its ProBiotix Health business on AQSE, Strong Buy…

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced that it intends to seek admission of its ProBiotix Health business onto the AQSE Growth Market with an associated fund raise of approximately £2.5 million at an indicative premoney valuation of £22.5 million and a distribution in specie. With, at a 35.5p share price, OptiBiotix as a whole currently capitalised at £31.3 million, is this good news? You bet!

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SWG
SWG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Shearwater – contract win, boosts confidence in meeting full-year forecasts: BUY

Cybersecurity group Shearwater (SWG) has announced a three-year contract with a global financial organisation, totalling $4.1 million, to provide the customer with security software across the breadth of its operations.

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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

It’s safer to stick to small caps as a bear and this is the next Omega

There now seem to be serious peace talks in Ukraine with both sides, apparently, prepared to give a little to stop the bloodshed. I know too many folks are beating the war drums and bursting with pride every time a British missile takes out a Russian tank but they are mistaken as I explained in a podcast HERE. As a human being I pray for peace and an end to the killing. If there is peace all stocks will melt up, but especially the big caps.

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Headlam – 2021 results, further trading improvement to follow: BUY

Europe’s leading floorcoverings distributor group Headlam Group (HEAD) has announced its results for the 2021 calendar year and said “trading in January and February 2022 in line with plan, with the strong margin performance in 2021 maintained into 2022”.

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Fresnillo – 2021 results, on-going challenges but confident in prospects: BUY

Fresnillo (FRES) has announced 2021 results and on-going challenges but also confidence in its prospects. Really?

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Stocks like Cineworld are NOT Ukraine Binary Bets whatever Mr Market says

I see that amid some optimism that we might see peace in Ukraine the FTSE 100 is staging a bit of a rally as I write.  And with that all sorts of stocks among the small and mid-caps are heading higher. Of course, I pray for peace. If we get it then all stocks will be marked higher but for how long?

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HAT
HAT

H & T Group – 2021 results, looks well positioned for trading recovery

H&T Group (HAT) has announced results for the 2021 calendar year and that looking ahead it “is well positioned”. Is it?

Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Lucian's top 4 shorts & my 10 shares to collapse by Christmas reviews and an oil price warning

The gardening photos from the Welsh hovel will appear later on my own site. Before then I review the  4 retail stocks of the Lucian Miers apocalypse: Versarien (VRS), Supply@ME Capital (SYME), Eurasia (EUR) and Chill Brands (CHLL) and then my 10 stocks to collapse by Christmas. One has fallen so far it is probably not a short now though I would not buy it while three look set to go to zero, possibly as soon as next week in one case. My 10 are Supply, Chill Brands, Versarien, Avacta (AVCT), Wildcat Petroleum (WCAT), Amigo (AMGO), Cineworld (CINE), Argo Blockchain (ARB), Verditek (VDTK) and Tern (TERN). I also look at the oil price and consider whether those sitting on gains might bank a few profits. 

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BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh and Partners – further disposal completion suggests value

Early stage financial services businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced it has completed a sale of its 77.25% shareholding in Summa Insurance Brokerage for £8.1 million after all associated costs, with also a further £1.5 million in full for its loan, emphasising this “once again demonstrates the success of our investment approach over a number of years”.

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OptiBiotix Health – “in line” trading update, but now time for profitable delivery...

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has issued a trading update commenting that 2021 “total invoiced sales for the group were £2.2m (2020: £1.5m) an increase of 46.7% on the previous year and in line with market expectations” and including that it “has made good progress against its stated aims of focusing on a smaller number of large partners in key strategic markets and expects to see the benefits of these in 2022 and beyond”. What does that mean at the bottom-line?

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RIO
RIO
PREMIUM CONTENT

Rio Tinto – 2021 record results, growth and income from “disciplined investment” ahead

Recent Income recommendation Rio Tinto (RIO) has announced record results for 2021 and that it is “targeting disciplined investment in commodities that will see strong demand in the coming decades”.

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SLP
SLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Sylvania Platinum – interims, a trading improvement Buy

PGMs tailings materials retreatment company in South Africa Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st December 2021, noting a net profit of $24.4 million, “cash balance at 31 December 2021 of $110.1 million (HY1 FY2021: $67.1 million)” and that it is expecting second half-year PGM ounce production improvement.

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Macfarlane – 2021 results and confident of further growth, Buy

Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced results for the 2021 calendar year and that 2022 trading in the early months has been “encouraging” and that it is confident it will deliver further growth.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Sitting on the fence with Lucian Miers

I start with Ukraine, Russia and all that macro shite and say afew things which challenge the Western narrative and which some of you may disagree with violently. I cover Ferrexpo (FXPO),Amur (AMC) and Eurasia (EUA) in this section. I mention Cineworld (CINE) and then discuss today’s news from Optibiotix (OPTI) and, en passant, Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) where I am buying more shares this afternoon. 

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SkinBioTherapeutics – “Business update”, expect shares to respond positively on further updates soon: BUY!

SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has published a Business update” announcement including that it has now progressed to the second phase of its AxisBiotix-Ps food supplement for psoriasis product commercialisation strategy and that the SkinBiotix active ingredient project with Sederma is on track. Sounds good!

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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

Short Peloton

Can we all agree that the Covid bubble/lets all WFH bubble has burst and also that the tech bubble is bursting. I will write up the top way to cash in on this on the N50 website this weekend. Meanwhile here is some more free money for the bears.

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EVR
EVR
PREMIUM CONTENT

Evraz plc and the Media Muddle

Given the hysteria surrounding the situation in Ukraine over the weekend, the falls in Western-listed Russian names were relatively muted with most being down low single digit percentages on Monday. The exception to this appeared to be FTSE 100 constituent Evraz plc (EVR), the steel producer and coal miner with major operations in Russia and Ukraine. The stock which had closed on Friday at 444p opened at 285p, showing a decline of 159p or 35%. The press was quick to latch on to this “carnage”:

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JSE
JSE
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jadestone Energy – 2022 production guidance, set to increase shareholder returns

Jadestone Energy (JSE) states that it “is pleased to provide its guidance outlook for 2022”, including noting that it expects to generate material incremental cash at current oil prices and premiums and may consider an increase in shareholder returns through increased dividends and/or share buy-backs later in the year. Sounds good.

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BP
BP
PREMIUM CONTENT

BP – Q4 and full year 2021 results, further upside potential?

BP plc (BP.) has announced fourth quarter and full year 2021 results and argues “strong progress” in its transformation to an ‘integrated energy company’.

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OptiBiotix Health – “Commercial and strategy update”. What does it mean tangibly? It means BUY

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has made what it describes as a Commercial and strategy update”, including arguing “look forward with confidence to further commercial progress of the group in the current year and beyond”. What does that though mean tangibly?

JLP
JLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jubilee Metals – half-year operational and financial update, still a Buy?

Jubilee Metals (JLP) states that it “is pleased to announce its unaudited operational results for the six months to 31 December 2021” and that it looks forward to “the next six months with the full impact of the Inyoni facility being felt, as well as the targeted ramp-up at Roan enabling us to take another major step in our commitment to achieve annual copper production of 25 000 tonnes”. So what of a current 16.3p share price, £396 million market capitalisation?

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AltynGold – Q4 update, “one of the most undervalued gold mining stocks on the London Stock Exchange”?

AltynGold (ALTN) has made a “4th Quarter results” announcement and states that it is “positive that we will deliver even better numbers in the coming year”. So what’s the detail?…

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SLP
SLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Sylvania Platinum – Q2 update, profit growth and more to come

Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for its quarter ended 31st December 2021, including cash of $110.1 million and “significant progress in terms of access to additional chrome tailings resources at both the Eastern and Western Operations”.

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JSE
JSE

Jadestone Energy – “ended 2021 with considerable momentum”, and that looks set to continue as soon as next week

This has been a very good share tip for our readers but there is more to come. Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced that “2021 production averaged 12,545 boe/d, in line with expectations” and “cash balances at the end of the year are estimated at US$117.4 million, representing an increase of 30% year-on-year, even after the largest spending programme in the company’s history”. This sounds encouraging.

PREMIUM CONTENT

A resting banker explains why Cineworld is a zero

Lucian Miers and myself have repeatedly called out Cineworld (CINE) as a compelling short and those who have followed our calls have prospered. But the FT, the home of almost every wrong call in history from backing the UK joining the Euro to selling its gold in 1997, runs a story “Cineworld debt pile set to save cinema operator from bankruptcy.” You might think this is a reason to buy. Au contaire. A resting banksta writes to me to explain.

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Photo Article: Lucian goes to Cake Box Eastleigh as the company serves up weedy response to bear case

Today we were told that the COO of Cake Box (CBOX) had bought £50,000 of shares yesterday. Compared to the £10.5 million dump by his boss in November it is peanuts. Showing rather poor form, Dr Jaswir Singh made the purchase BEFORE rather than AFTER the company put out a weedy and patronising RNS trying to refute the bear case as explained HERE on Sunday.  Surely the good Dr was aware that a refutation was coming and thus had price sensitive information? While Dr Singh was dealing like a dervish, Lucian Miers went to visit the franchise stores in Eastleigh and Southampton. The photo below is from Eastleigh.

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Essentra – shares further ahead on trading update, further corporate excitement potential?

Components and (currently) Packaging and Filters company Essentra (ESNT) has announced fourth quarter like-for-like revenue up 12.7% on the prior year (+11.1% v. Q4 2019) and that it “expects to deliver FY 2021 operating profit in the range of analysts’ forecasts” (£80.7m-£84.3m) and “order book trends remain strong”. The shares are now 340p, a just shy of £1 billion market cap, but is there still further to go here?

SWG
SWG

Buy Shearwater Group

Shares in cyber security group Shearwater (SWG) are down from more than 200p reached early last summer and more than 140p as recently as November to currently 99p to buy. There is clear trading expectations risk, but also reasons for optimism that the shares will spark again and they now look a risk/reward Buy.

HAT
HAT
PREMIUM CONTENT

H and T Group – 2021 update, scope for further progress

October share tip at a 279p offer price, UK pawnbroking group H&T (HAT) has announced that “trading performance during the second half remained consistently strong and the group expects to report profit before tax for the full year within the range of current market expectations”.

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ODX
ODX
PREMIUM CONTENT

Omega Diagnostics manifestly deceives investors as CEO walks the plank

If the share price of a company is in sharp decline and the CEO walks it is for one of two reasons and neither is good. It could be that the CEO knows that things can only get worse and wants to put as much clear blue water between him and a ship that is bound to sink. Or the rest of the board know that stakeholders will only do what is needed to try to keep the ship afloat if there is a change of captain, it is an admission that the ship is in deep trouble. Either way it is always a sign to sell or short or add to shorts and that brings me to Omega Diagnostics (ODX) where I have been a long term bear.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast – a Fake Sheikh hunting competition for detectives among you

I start with a weather report from Chez Atwater, refer to this article, and ask any cultists to explain. Then there is a fake sheikh (or not)-hunting competition regarding ADM Energy (ADM). Finally I ask if we bears really will have a long promised tea party in 2022 as slimmer of the month Lucian Miers suggests. Heck, he is even thinking of shorting Tesla again.

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CEY
CEY
PREMIUM CONTENT

Centamin – Q4 update, further recovery ahead

Centamin (CEY) has announced “the final quarter delivered what was a highly successful 2021” and that it is now looking forward to delivering on a clear roadmap to growing and unlocking further value from the Sukari gold mine in Egypt and its exploration portfolio. The shares have responded up to 93.425p and look to have much further to go.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health and SkinBioTherapeutics – further progress & triggers for dramatic 2022 re-rate

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) was one of our tips of the year, with we anticipating financial progress as its deals for its compounds expand and further deals kick-in. It has now announced that a further human volunteer study on its cholesterol-reducing probiotic LPLDL - on a different population group of hypercholesterolemic adults – has shown “at six weeks, when volunteers taking placebo were compared to those taking LPLDL, there were statistically significant changes to clinically important cardiovascular risk”, including “34.2% reduction in total cholesterol (p=0.001)”.

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BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh & Partners – another deal, again suggesting value

Following recently a shareholding transaction in an investee company further suggesting value, B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has now announced another deal suggesting the same.

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AAZ
AAZ

Anglo Asian Mining – Q4 and full-year update, further potential: BUY

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has published a fourth quarter update, including noting an underway technical study to determine the commercial viability of adding to its production from an existing underground mine, Vejnaly, in the second half of this year.

THG
THG
PREMIUM CONTENT

The Hut Group (THG plc) – not an invitation to short but an obligation to

Shares in The Hut Group, THG plc (THG), listed at 500p in September 2020, then zoomed to 800p but now trade below 200p. Even so this business is still valued by the market at £2.2 billion.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: A sleazy PWC report does not excuse grotesque NED share option greed at Optibiotix, it stinks

I start with a few minutes on Woodlarks. This may be my last year doing the Rogue Bloggers Walk but myself, Lucian Miers, and Jonathan Price are minded to do it once more in May or June. On the basis that it could be a last hurrah and that you may want to consider a way of shifting that Christmas belly bulge how about you join us in 2022? Then onto Optibiotix (OPTI) where its NEDs have behaved in a most disgraceful way with free money share option troughing. As a loyal shareholder this is another kick in the gonads for me and I urge Steve O’Hara to sack three of the four of them and replace them with one new, less greedy, individual. Actually I’d go for all four booting out chairman Neil Davidson as well.

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Gold
PREMIUM CONTENT

The View From The Montana Log-Cabin As Gold End 2021 at $1830

Gold ended the year at $1830 – up $20 in a shortened week, but down almost $70 on the year. So much for my belief that anything to do with Gold would have a good year – and so much for my $2000 at year-end prediction. But I sense things are swinging back in favour for the yellow metal.

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Bobby-Moore
PREMIUM CONTENT

The ShareProphets 24 tips of the year for 2022 – No 22 is a SELL from Lucian Miers

Between Boxing Day and January 3 all of our writers will be serving up their share tips of the year for 2022 – and now a new occassional contributor has stepped up to the plate so that will be 24 tips. Twenty second in our series is a SELL from Lucian Miers. Over to the Bard of the Boleyn…

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AEX Gold – Valley Block early signs “very encouraging”, Buy

AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced that  it “is pleased to provide shareholders with an end of year update”, with it noting a revised mine plan will be driven by drilling results in the Valley Block where the early signs are “very encouraging”.

BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh & Partners – investee company disposal further demonstrates model, a winning share tip still cheap

Specialist investor in early stage financial services businesses B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced it has sold its stake in UK Courier and Taxi fleet motor insurance specialising business Walsingham (WMIL), emphasising the transaction is another example of it being able to identify niche opportunities to back successful management teams and to successfully realise value for shareholders.

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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

In this market the cash-strapped who signal a placing are still a short

This is a market where being short can be exceedingly painful. As Gabriel Grego found out the other day, even what appear to be slam dunk frauds can roof it. This is what happens at the fag end of a bull market. But in the UK, I sense that there is now real ennui among investors, both institutional and the spivs at the bucket shops, when it comes to placings.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – further partner agreements positives...

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has followed a sales agreement with Apollo Hospitals Enterprises for its GoFigure weight management product range in India with an agreement for GoFigure and SlimBiome Medical in Saudi Arabia (KSA). Is this further encouraging progress or just more flannel?

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Aferian – positive full-year update, Buy

Video streaming technology company Aferian (AFRN) has announced year ended 30th November 2021 performance “ahead of the prior year, and in line with board expectations” and confidence looking ahead including increased exit run rate annual recurring revenue of approximately $15 million and further visibility as customers place orders up to 60 weeks in advance in response to extended lead times in the supply chain.

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JSE
JSE
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jadestone Energy – operational update, positive growth outlook

Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced that 2021 average annual production is expected to be around the midpoint of the 11,500-13,500 boe/d guidance range and that it “now expect to reap the benefits of higher production and attractive pricing, given ongoing oil price strength, our unhedged position and recent improvements in the Tapis differential”.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Kicking another man who is down, Cineworld - sell with sub 10p target

I trust that numerous warnings from myself and Lucian have allowed you to make good money from shorting Cineworld (CINE) all the way down. The shares have collapsed this week on news that it has lost a Canadian court case and is on the hook for C$1.23 billion but that merely accelerates the end game here. Do not even think of closing your short at 31p.  My target is buttons. Post an inevitable debt for equity swap and bailout placing this is a penny share.

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EZJ
EZJ
PREMIUM CONTENT

easyJet – a Recovery Buy?

An already widespread virus mutating to what is being seen clinically as “extremely mild cases”. Not bad news then… except in Airstrip One – and a resultant very negative stock market reaction. However government response madness is gradually being revealed and travel and leisure should resultantly gradually recover, though some share prices here remain depressed. Opportunity?…

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PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – positive interims and outlook confidence, Buy

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st October 2021 and that it has “confidence to deliver a significant improvement in profitability during the second half of this year” following an increased pre-tax profit to £175 million in the first half.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – strategy and CFO update, formally adds to corporate excitement potential

Previously writing on Essentra (ESNT) we noted ‘Q3 update, adds corporate excitement potential’ with the company “reviewing the full range of strategic options for the Filters business” with it aiming to become a pure play Components business over time, targeting strategic focus and an acceleration of organic and inorganic growth. Now a further “Strategic Update” and a “Directorate Change”.

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US-Flag-Blonde
PREMIUM CONTENT

Has the time for sanity in the US markets arrived?

Although the S&P 500 index is still around all time highs, there have been some savage declines of late in certain names and 275 stocks are lower now than they were six months ago. This suggests to me that the health of the US markets is much more fragile and precarious than the level of the three main indices implies.

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VP
VP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Vp – interims, “strong and continuing recovery”. Buy

Equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) has announced results for its half-year ended 30th September 2021 emphasising “a strong and continuing recovery in all of our businesses”. This sounds encouraging.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Another great chance to 'kick a man when he is down' – Tern

Evil Knievil: “the best time to kick a man is when he is down.” The great bear raider is correct, especially in these crazy times when so many frauds or near bankrupts seem able to defy gravity as the believers still belief and continue to BOTFD, so providing share price support. But in some cases even the believers are starting to smell the coffee.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – full-year results, still a “transformational” progress Buy?

SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced results for its year ended 30th June 2021 emphasising “transformational” progress. So what is this?

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Macfarlane – trading ahead of expectations, Buy

Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has published a trading update including news that it “now expects the group will exceed its previous expectations for the full year”. Sounds good!

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – launch of sports nutrition products to add £1m a year to sales, Buy

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced the launch of a new sports nutrition product range, LeanBiome, with a supply & licensing agreement with “a leading global player in beauty & nutrition”. What of a current share price response up to 42.5p?

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PREMIUM CONTENT

AEX Gold – Q3 update, Nalunaq and exploration upside potential: too much yakking but we still have faith

AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced third quarter results and an update including that a Nalunaq project engineering study is on track to be completed by the end of the year and that it is extremely excited by the wider exploration potential of its assets and looks forward to also being able to demonstrate the potential value of its non-gold, strategic mineral assets in due course.

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Atalaya Mining – Q3 “another strong quarter”, but what of a now more than 400p share price?

Atalaya Mining (ATYM) states it is pleased to announce its quarterly and nine-month results for the period ended 30th September 2021, with it emphasising “another strong quarter… robust operational performance, combined with strong copper prices, has seen our EBITDA for the first nine months of 2021 more than triple from the amount generated during the same period of 2020”. So what of a now more than 400p share price?

PREMIUM CONTENT

Chill Brands New Distribution deal – do the maths, check out the Arfur Daley lock-up & listen to the silence

Shares in the fraud Chill Brands (CHLL) have raced ahead today by 53% to 17.25p on the back of news of a new distribution deal. Yup, the market cap has gone up by c£12 million on the back of a transaction worth £275,000 or less. Insane. You bet. But of course Chill does not give any numbers in its release and morons buying this stock have not done the maths or checked out Google Earth. I have, as you can see below.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – OptiBiotix’s share sale, who does it think it’s kidding?

Having been falling from early this month, shares in SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) are currently further lower after it announced “OptiBiotix Health Plc has placed 3,636,363 ordinary shares in SkinBioTherapeutics with new and existing institutional investors at a price of 55 pence per share”. With SkinBioTherapeutics CEO Stuart Ashman though arguing “the company is going from strength to strength” and “it is important to attract new investors who are keen to come on board to support us in the next stage of the company’s development, as a commercial entity”, why the further share price fall?

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Chill Brands – the best time to kick a man is when he is down

‘The best time to kick a man is when he is down’ is a quote from my friend the bear raider Simon Cawkwell, aka Evil Knievil. It is not a reference to individuals who have fallen on bad times for Cawkwell is, sometimes, not that uncharitable, but to shares in companies hitting new lows.

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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

The Demise of Activist Short Reports?

Until recently the playbook for activist short sellers was relatively straightforward. You spend a lot of time and money researching your target. You write a punchy report explaining your thesis in a manner designed to persuade even the most mentally challenged fund manager that they are holding a ticking bomb. You release your report at a time of your choosing and in the resulting share price fall you maybe take a bit off the table to cover your costs. If the report is well researched, accurate, and compelling, it is a reasonable and, in my view, perfectly respectable way of making a living which is beneficial to the integrity of the market in an age where regulators and enforcement agencies are greatly enfeebled.

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BP
BP

BP – Q3 results, positive cash generation and shareholder returns

BP (BP.) has announced third quarter of the year results, emphasising it is delivering significant cash to strengthen finances, growing distributions to shareholders and investing in strategic transformation.

DS Smith – ‘more than offsetting input cost increases’, Buy

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced for its half-year it is more than offsetting significant input cost increases, helped by continuing strong structural drivers of growth.

PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – launch of first commercial product, high margin profit potential from this cracking share tip

SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced it has commercially launched its probiotic food supplement to help alleviate the symptoms associated with psoriasis, AxisBiotix-Ps.

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EUA
EUA
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jam Tomorrow from the Brit, the Yank and the Irishman

I am all for patience when it comes to investing, but the forbearance of small retail investors when it comes to continual promises made and broken by small and disreputable companies never ceases to amaze. Amazon and Apple are two examples, often cited by dreamers, of plucky minnows which struggled for years before exploding into being behemoths. If they can do it, the thinking seems to be, why not anyone? Give them more time and money.

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SLP
SLP

Sylvania Platinum – Q1 update, positive in a challenging environment: BUY

Platinum group metals recovery company in South Africa, Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for the first quarter of its year, including “net profit of $8.6 million… Cash balance of $132.7 million”. Good news?

CSH
CSH
PREMIUM CONTENT

When a regulator works with a short seller you know the target is in trouble

Since, a few weeks ago, Matt Earl launched his first bear dossier on Civitas Social Housing (CSH) its shares have fallen by 25% to 91p. The company did issue a response to the first dossier published by the bear raider known as “the Dark Destroyer”.

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HAT
HAT
PREMIUM CONTENT

A detailed note on why H&T is a BUY

The latest results from pawnbroker H&T Group (HAT) noted Covid-19 related trading restrictions and reduced high street footfall impact but they still showed profitable resilience and noted growing confidence. We can understand why, given the strains raging inflation will put on household budgets, and predict a return to the 380p+ share price levels of early 2020. At a current 283p offer price  (279p when we tipped it two weeks ago) and up to 290p, this is a recovery BUY.

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BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh and Partners – interims, a good share tip continuing to deliver

Early stage financial services businesses investment company, B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st July 2021 and that it “continue to believe in our strategy of investing in people with ambition, and a track record of delivering within their sectors, and this again has been borne out by these results”.

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Atalaya Mining – Q3 performance sees increased production guidance, share price upside to come

Atalaya Mining (ATYM) has published a third quarter update including that it is now increasing its production guidance for the year. This sounds like good news.

PREMIUM CONTENT

BREAKING: Tern – oopsadaisie: Just How Bust is Bust at Device Authority?

Oh dear oh dear. AIM-listed jam-tomorrow IoT investment company Tern (TERN) principal investee Device Authority has just posted amended FY20 accounts at Companies House. Given that the original accounts were signed off back in January but not posted until 21 September 2021, that looks like carelessness – as do the missing Notes to the Accounts. And then there is an increased £4.6 million liability, apparently owed to nobody!

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Where is the promised quarterly sales update? – Chill Brands is a most compelling short

You can get borrow and you should. There is a collapsing long position on margin but the real reason to go aggressively short of Chill Brands (CHLL) is the deafening sound of silence. Let me explain.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Headlam – Chief Executive “stepped down”. Bad news or time for a change?

Floorcoverings distributor Headlam (HEAD) has announced that Steve Wilson has “stepped down” as Chief Executive and from the company having “been instrumental in the company’s success throughout his 30 years with Headlam, the last five years as Chief Executive”. Bad news or time for a change?

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IMB
IMB
PREMIUM CONTENT

Imperial Brands – full-year trading statement, Income Buy

Imperial Brands (IMB) is “pleased to report the business continues to perform well… on track to deliver our full-year results in line with expectations”. That suggests upside potential from a below 1500p share price.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – shares nudge ahead on interims, much more to come

Life sciences compounds developer OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced results for the first of calendar 2021, emphasising “sales of LPLDL and SlimBiome of £1.076m, a 44.5% increase over H1:2020… pleasing given the continued uncertain global economic environment and challenges of the subsequent waves of COVID-19, particularly in countries like India and the USA. The shares have currently responded slightly higher, to 50p.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

James Bond to the Rescue at Cineworld? I Don’t think so.

In the last week shares in Cineworld (CNE) rose 25% from 66p to 83p, adding around £230 million to its market cap. To put that number in perspective it represents more that its entire profit before tax in 2019, the last full year without Covid.

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JSE
JSE

Jadestone Energy – new well onstream further boosts shares, more to come

Following half-year results from Jadestone Energy (JSE) recently, we noted the financial improvement despite challenges and that with the growth potential suggested the 77p share price too harsh an appraisal. There is now a Montara H6 well successfully brought onstream”-titled announcement and the shares are further higher.

SkinBioTherapeutics – announces AxisBiotix-Ps launch date, high margin profit potential moving closer - we are 289% ahead but much more to come

As things stand at 69p, we are 289% ahead on this share tip but there is much more to come. SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced its probiotic food supplement to help alleviate the symptoms of psoriasis, AxisBiotix-Ps, is to launch on 29th October, following highly positive results from its consumer study in May and key commercialisation activities since.

Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the Agony and the Ecstasy

I sart with a chat I had with my friend Lucian Miers on Demetri Kofinas and financial nihilism. Honest, it is more interesting than it sounds. Then to gold and why one might be losing faith. Lucian has.  Then to two stocks I own Kefi (KEFI) and MyHealthchecked (MHC) and one that I do not and which is on its way down the plughole: the fraud Chill Brands (CHLL).

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EUA
EUA
PREMIUM CONTENT

Now it's time to go to town on Eurasia Mining as a bear

Two or three weeks ago I clambered off the fence and explicitly told you to short Eurasia Mining (EUA) at 28p. The shares are now 23.6p in the middle. So far so good for we bears but the company is still valued by the market, on a fully diluted basis as there are loads of in the money options, at well over £700 million which is insane. A placing announced yesterday is the cue to add to your shorts.

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AAZ
AAZ

Anglo Asian Mining – interims, production guidance maintained. Buy

Miner in Azerbaijan, Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced results for the first half of 2021 and that “FY 2021 Production guidance of between 64,000 to 72,000 gold equivalent ounces remains unchanged”.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Tern stinks, AIM Regulation must act NOW!

I have identified Tern (TERN) previously as a compelling short as nothing it says makes sense, the stated NAV is about 9p at best and the shares are 19.25p. But that NAV is bogus! The main component of NAV ,just over 50% is a holding in Device Authority but there is a bombshell out there Tern is not telling folks about. Device looks to be insolvent.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: can anyone interpret my new nightmare, a Saint (Vin) and a sinner (Lucian) and his toxic 4

I am up early thanks to a new nightmare. Can anyone interpret it? Are you out there Joseph? I then look at saint Vin Murria and Summerway Capital (SWC). Then I discuss Lucian Miers big Joe Retail toxic four (Chill Brands, Supply@ME Capital, Tern and Eurasia), why things are going his way, which will crack first and why and what the fallout will be. A regular bearcast will follow later.

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UHS
UHS
PREMIUM CONTENT

10 red flags we all might have spotted at the Umuthi fraud

This weekend’s short letter on the N50 website will look at a company whose shares you can trade. Today, I am feeling pretty proud of my take-down of Standard Listed Umuthi (UHS) whose March 4 IPO was to have valued it at £368 million. A series of articles HERE has seen its sole NED resign and nobody now seems to doubt that this is a complete fraud with no business and that the revelations are truly shocking. Sadly, as it is an obvious zero, its shares are suspended but there are lessons. Here are 10 signs that this was a fraud:

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JSE
JSE

Jadestone Energy – interims, production and cash flow growth to come

Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced its results for the first half of 2021, reaffirming full-year production guidance of 11,500-13,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and anticipating 20,000 boe/d towards the end of the year. We are well up on this 69p offer price share tip but where do we go from here?

BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh & Partners – half-year trading update, reasons for confidence

Early stage financial services businesses investment company B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has made a trading update for its half-year ended 31st July 2021, including that its “portfolio has performed well during the period, and we expect this to continue through the group’s current financial year”.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast - Probing Lucian, as he prepares to do porridge, on the big five UK shorts - what triggers the end game?

Yesterday I was reviewing Lucian Miers’ big 5 small cap shorts with the great bear over breakfast. Breakfast BTW was porridge with homemade stewed apples (from the Welsh Hovel) in cinnamon. In the podcast, I discuss last night’s culinary fare but then probe Lucian on what he sees as critical mid and end points for each of his 5 UK small cap big shorts: Tern (TERN), Versarien (VRS), Chill Brands (CHLL), Supply@ME Capital (SYME) and Eurasia Mining (EUA).

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Preparing the fatted pig for Lucian Miers

This is my shortest bearcast ever. Having picked Lucian’s brains, I promise you two tomorrow.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Lucian Miers' big 4 UK small cap shorts

On each of the four there is borrow and Lucian is short. There is a 5th where he has a small short but borrow is hard to obtain. I go through all five and explain why they will all see a share price collapse if not a total wipeout.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Should Lucian Miers and I buy shares in Versarien or go to Zagreb?

I start with what should have been Joshua’s first day at school but for the utterly inexcusable laziness of the teachers. Then I mention Versarien (VRS) before moving onto the fraud Chill Brands (CHLL), a bt of CV analysis at Nanosynth (NNN) and a discussion of the latest nonsense from Eurasia Mining (EUA) where again I compare it with Jubilee Metals (JLP).

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – a Recovery buy

A half-year results announcement last month from Essentra plc (ESNT) included “we are now trading ahead of 2019 levels with Q2 revenue up by 2.5% LFL. The market cap at the end of 2019 was £1.13 billion. At a current 287.5p offer price, it is £870 million. It may not be the most exciting company on Earth but that is usually not a bad thing. We regard it as a recovery buy.

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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

Supply@Me and Chill Brands. Leaving it late in the day.

Two dogs, covered extensively on Shareprophets.com  where i am short are leaving it rather late to come up with the goods. Chill Brands Group (CHLL), formerly Zoetic, has until Tuesday to publish its results to March 2021 (and that’s after a Covid extension) and Supply@Me Capital (SYME) has stated that a trading update is “expected” this month.

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ARB
ARB
PREMIUM CONTENT

Times when it is best to retire to the pavilion

I have been a critic of Argo Blockchain (ARB) for an awfully long time. It is run by sharp promoters and backed by some nasty spivs. And it seems to me that it has failed woefully to address the issues flagged up a few weeks ago in the recent Boatman bear dossier HERE.

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JSE
JSE

Jadestone Energy – “Guidance and Operations Update”, long-term attractions from this successful share tip

“Guidance and Operations Update” from Jadestone Energy (JSE) notes work necessary to restore production from the Skua subsea wells and the revised cost of the H6 infill well at Montara, where the well has been sidetracked due to mechanical equipment issues, as well as that it is still awaiting clarity on Maari offshore New Zealand government approvals timing. However, “average full-year 2021 production guidance of between 11,500-13,500 boe/d remains unchanged”.

PREMIUM CONTENT

How do you KNOW when a company is facing a cash crunch? A case study - Verditek

I preface this by saying that Verditek (VDTK) is a company that can lie about winning take or pay contracts just to get a placing away. In the end, the “customer” – and I use the word loosely – neither takes or pays. So anything it says in an RNS, even its cash balance, is not something that I would necessarily believe. But to make life simple, I give it the benefit of the doubt and assume its stated cash balances are, more or less, correct.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – ‘Business Update’, high margin profit potential moving materially closer

SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has delivered a “Business Update” including that the commercial launch of AxisBiotix-Ps is on track for Q4 and has further encouraging potential, that SkinBiotix manufacturing scale-up with Croda (CRDA) is progressing to schedule and 30th June year-end cash totalled £4.6 million. Sounds good.

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AAZ
AAZ
PREMIUM CONTENT

Anglo Asian Mining – Zafar maiden JORC Mineral Resource adds to potential

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced a maiden JORC Mineral Resource for its Zafar polymetallic deposit in the Gedabek contract area, Azerbaijan, which it argues is “extremely encouraging and will help underpin the company’s future long-term production growth”.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – extends Seed Health territories, strong buy

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced further growth with an agreement to extend the territories of its deal with Seed Health.

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BP
BP

BP – Q2 results, creating value now and for the future?

BP (BP.) has announced second quarter of the year results emphasising “generating value for our shareholders today while we transition the company for the future”. Sounds good, but what’s the detail?

VRS
VRS

The Versarien Cultists have their cake and eat it as Ian Westbrook hits £20,000 target - start sweating Neill Ricketts

The good news is, and I thank so many generous Shareprophets readers, that Ian Westbrook has – as you can see here – raised £20,000 and so, in January, the loathsome pig Neill Ricketts will get to sweat in Court. I shall be preparing my deposition for Ian’s barrister next week. Natch the Bulletin Board cultists were driven to a frenzy of rage by this.

Headlam – as suspected, “materially ahead of current market expectations”

Early in July we noted shares in Europe’s leading floorcoverings distributor Headlam Group (HEAD) looked a recovery buy at a 495p offer price, considering there clear potential for outperformance of forecasts based on the trading momentum and the operational improvement programme being implemented. A “Pre-Close Trading Update” sees the shares currently at 528p. Is there still further upside?

PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – shares up on ‘trading and commercial update’, much further to go

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has made a “Trading and commercial update” including that sales are ahead of its expectations for the first six months of the year and that it “believes it is in a strong position to meet or exceed its full year sales forecast”. The shares have currently responded up to 49.5p but there looks much further to go.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Impellam – half-year results, recovery but more to come?

International staffing group Impellam (IPEL) has announced results for the first half of the year and that it is seeing “increasing positivity in our customer demands for our managed service and talent solutions across our markets”. This sounds encouraging.

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GSK
GSK
PREMIUM CONTENT

GlaxoSmithKline – second quarter results, still a recovery buy

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has announced second quarter of the year results, including stating “strong commercial execution” and “we are likely to deliver full-year Adjusted EPS towards the better end of our guidance range”. So where now for the shares?, with they currently having responded back up to 1400p.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – disposal agreement further aligns it with FMCG and e-commerce customers

DS Smith (SMDS“is pleased to announce the proposed sale of its De Hoop paper mill in the Netherlands to De Jong Packaging for a cash consideration of €50 million (c. £43 million)”. Good news from this leading provider of sustainable paper-based packaging?

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Thoughts on Tern – Part 2

Bulls and bears in tech investment company Tern plc (TERN) can at least agree on one thing: the key to the investment case is its holding in Device Authority Ltd (DA Ltd), a provider of security solutions for IOT products. Tern holds 56.8% of DA Ltd’s equity and has to date lent it £3.1 million in convertible loan stock. The stake is carried at £12.8 million on the balance sheet (valuing the whole company at £22.5 million), representing 58% of the value of the portfolio. It is DA Ltd’s perceived potential that has seen Tern’s shares trade at multiples of its book value and been the hook upon which it has hung the majority of its 16 placings to date.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Thoughts on Tern - Part 1

As I predicted it would in my last piece, Tern plc (TERN) came back to the trough last week with yet another placing (its 16th since it emerged from the ruins of Silvermere Energy in 2014) and the shares predictably sold off, causing a few rumblings of discontent among its shareholders, 100% of whom (bar management) are retail. But before I lay into the company and its management, let me present you with a fun fact regarding dilution, a dirty word for most equity investors.

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MRW
MRW

Wm Morrison – Apollo Global Management update, take profits?

We previously updated on Wm Morrison Supermarkets (MRW) including noting Apollo Global Management stating that “it is, on behalf of certain investment funds managed by it, in the preliminary stages of evaluating a possible offer for Morrisons” meant that we could still see further upside potential with a competitive bid situation developing. There has now been a further announcement from Apollo.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Headlam Group – a recovery buy?

A trading update earlier this month from Headlam Group (HEAD) included “total revenue for the year-to-date is now in-line with the 2019 comparator, having been slightly below for the four months to 30 April 2021” and “the company’s Operational Improvement Programme delivering revenue growth opportunities and cost improvements”. This combination suggests there is further recovery value in the shares.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Ouzo Time! Tern Placing - Bears to the rescue?

It is time for yet another ouzo! As long suggested on this fine website, AIM-listed jam-tomorrow IoT investment company Tern plc (TERN) has done yet another discounted placing to raise c.£2 million (before expenses) at 18.8p per share – and launched a PrimaryBid offer (which you should definitely ignore) in an attempt to raise the same again. But the joke is that it seems it was the Bears to the rescue!

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GSK
GSK
PREMIUM CONTENT

GlaxoSmithKline – a Recovery Buy?

FTSE-100 pharma and healthcare company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is currently engaged in somewhat of a battle with well known activist investor Elliott Advisors. However, that is about the level of change as change is coming and Elliott is only involved as it “believes GSK has a substantial value creation opportunity – 45% upside in its share price – ahead of Consumer Health separation and greater beyond”. We concur that there is an attractive value creation opportunity here…

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DS Smith – further recovery and structural growth potential following full-year results?...

At 425p, shares in fully fibre-based, innovative packaging for consumer goods company DS Smith (SMDS) are well up on our 321.8p offer price November recommendation but is there more to come, particularly following results for its year ended 30th April 2021 and “accelerated opportunities a post-Covid-19 world offers”?…

AEX Gold – Nalunaq and exploration update, Buy

AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced an update on progress at its flagship Nalunaq project and that it has also applied for a new exploration licence in Greenland.

Atalaya Mining – AGM and Mineral Reserves statements, Buy

Atalaya Mining (ATYM) has made AGM and Reserves statements, including emphasising “substantial, unexploited mineral resources in the vicinity of our modern 15 Mtpa mill and related infrastructure, together with a very prospective land package with world class exploration potential, offer compelling opportunities for continued growth of our company”. So what’s led to this statement?

Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending June 26

When Chris Bailey returns to the non-Tom leaderboard, he reurns in style. Bid discussions at Morrison Chris Bailey is number one or number two if you include the Bearcast and Tom’s new shareshow. The Pub Quiz also sneaks onto the list at number ten. Just saying. Which one is the best of the week? Tell me in the comments.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Impellam Group – a recovery buy?

The latest results from staffing group Impellam (IPEL) included it emphasising “we are well placed to take advantage of a return to growth”. We have longer-term macroeconomic concerns, added to by the response to Covid-19, but do accept there is strong upcoming macroeconomic recovery potential. Many stocks in the recruitment sector have already responded, doubling and much more but here a current 294p to buy compares to a low of 220p and we see recovery potential back to 375p+. That makes the shares a recovery buy.

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EUA
EUA
PREMIUM CONTENT

Lucian Miers writes to Eurasia Mining

Lucian is short of Eurasia Mining (EUA) and for a host of reasons I think he is right to be short. One of those reasons is a mystery shareholder. Lucian has written to Eurasia’s boss Christian Schaffalitzky and his letter, still not having received a response after several days, follows:

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J Sainsbury – recently risen fast for a FTSE ‘elephant’ and another dividend secured, so...

Recommending shares in J Sainsbury (SBRY) as an Income portfolio buy in November at a 199.7p offer price, we noted grocery and general merchandise sales had remained strong to date in its second half of the year and suggested a 260p+ share price achievable. Little more than 7 months later the shares are already nearly there.

PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix – 2020 results and company chat, Strong Buy - 200p+ within 30 months

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced its 2020 calendar year results, emphasising improving financials and that it is well placed to exploit a now established low overhead, sustainable business model. It is what we learned in a chat with Steve O’Hara that makes us flag this up as such a STRONG BUY.

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BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh & Partners – full-year results, recovery opportunities

Insurance businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced results for its year ended 31st January 2021, emphasising “total shareholder return of 10.1% for the year including the dividend paid in July… remain optimistic that we will be able to secure scalable and high growth investments, which will deliver substantial shareholder returns over time”. That sounds good to us.

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Bear

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 26: A two and a half hour bear special with Lucian Miers and David Scott

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, sparky interviews with two great bears and some thoughts from myself. First up is the Bard of the Boleyn Lucian Miers followed by David Scott of Andrews Gwynne. Stocks to short and buy, asset allocation, macro-economics, it is all covered You can access the show HERE 

EUA
EUA
PREMIUM CONTENT

Funny Money, odd placings, smells all wrong...

Lucian Miers wrote about one aspect of Eurasia Mining (EUA) that smells all wrong to him the other day. My friend and colleague is yet to get any satisfactory answers on that matter. But here is another oddity.

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Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending June 5

The most read non-Tom article is Who owns Queeld Ventures which has a stake valued at £73m in Eurasia Mining? by Lucien Miers at number four, or number 11 including Bearcasts and Tom’s new shareshow. Which one is the best of the week? Tell me in the comments.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Tern is a slam dunk short and there is borrow!

Even in these crazy times when shares in insolvent frauds go up, some things just have to be a slam dunk short. The good news with this one is that there is borrow. Lucian Miers is already short so I suggest you join him in taking free money off morons who are buying Tern (TERN).

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PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – positive study results suggest this could be a six bagger from here!

SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced the results of the AxisBiotix-PsT consumer study of patients suffering from psoriasis and it says that it will now be seeking regulatory approval for the product as a food supplement in parallel in the UK, US and Europe… targeting a commercial launch of theAxisBiotix-Ps™ product in Q4 2021”.  Do the maths! This is going to be massive.

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EUA
EUA
PREMIUM CONTENT

Who owns Queeld Ventures which has a stake valued at £73m in Eurasia Mining?

They say that the best way to rob a bank is to own one and it is with a slight feeling of queasiness that I have been recommending buying the shares of Ferrexpo (FXPO), whose founder, Kostyantyn Zhevago, has been accused in some quarters of doing just that (fortunately the shares have done quite well). For balance however, I am short the shares of Eurasia Mining (EUA), which also appears to have connections with a party accused of the same skulduggery.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: does anyone care about corruption or misuse of taxpayer cash anymore?

I start with thoughts about yesterday’s walk, especial thanks to Jonathan Price, Steve Moore, Robert Lewis and Lucian Miers and his son, the other five rogue bloggers who managed all 34.2 miles. Lucian as the logistics meister who also got another stack of relatives to join us deserves especial credit. Thank you to all who sponsored us, it is not too late to donate here. Then onto what I see as corruption, the misuse of taxpayer cash by so many in the corporate world. It is legal but immoral but I sense no one really cares which saddens me.

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Woodlarks

Photo Article: Six Rogues for Woodlarks at 6 am at Winchester Cathedral

It is 6:00 am and the Rogue Bloggers number six. Lucian Miers’ son joins us. Andrew Bell is a no show, Our target is to raise £48,000 but any more would be a bonus.. As of now we are at £47,200.89, Please support the Rogue Bloggers and Woodlarks with a donation HERE
Tom

Saturday 29th May I walk 34.2 miles – will you please sponsor me and the other Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks?

I seem to have pulled some muscles in my back and shoulder and am in a bit of pain which will make tomorrow’s 34.2 mile walk from Winchester Cathedral to Woodlarks even more “fun”. But walk I shall as the quite amazing charity said that it needed to cover its costs in this year when its revenues have been eliminated by lockdown by us raising £48,000. So I will walk and I will finish. I won’t be alone but ask that you do your part and sponsor me as we seek to raise that £48,000. To those who have already done so I say thank you, to the rest of you…

PREMIUM CONTENT

The Best time to kick a man is when he’s down

Being a bear over the past year has, as I have noted many times before, been painful. You expose a company for being a fraud and its shares go up. You reveal that it has lied to investors and…its shares go up. You demonstrate that it is trading poorly and is running out of cash, its shares dip but then, post an oversubscribed placing, start to roof it again. It is unnatural. But it is the way of life in the last blow off stages of a bull market.

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AAZ
AAZ
PREMIUM CONTENT

Anglo Asian Mining – ‘pleasing’ 2020 results, Buy

Miner in Azerbaijan Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ“is pleased to announce its final audited results for the year ended 31 December 2020” and emphasises “exciting development opportunities”. Though don’t they all say that?

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ZOE
ZOE
PREMIUM CONTENT

The big red flag is almost always what a company does NOT say in an RNS: Ref Zoetic

Shares in the Standard Listed fraud that is Zoetic International (ZOE) are, at 56p mid, almost 50% off their all-time highs achieved at peak pump earlier this year. To have suffered such slippage amid a bull market for pot and small cap stocks takes some doing and is, in itself, something of a red flag. The posh but extremely dim and morally bankrupt PR man for this firm, Mr. Henry Harrison-Topham, tried to steady the nerves of the fools invested here with a trading update but it was no good. It was a case study in where what the company did NOT say serves as a red flag.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Atalaya Mining – Q1 results, strong financial delivery

Atalaya Mining (ATYM) has announced what it describes as “strong financial results achieved in Q1 and look forward to the rest of the year, with confidence”. How strong?

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Malcolm you might be right short term but you are actually wrong

With Gift Aid, we are either at £30,000 or just £1500 short of that on Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks. Lucian is walking the 34 mile course today so think of the rain and please donate HERE. My friend Malcolm Stacey is a naughty old bull. I discuss his column today HERE and why he is just wrong.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

AltynGold – “pleased to announce” Q1 update, we can understand why: BUY

Kazakhstan gold miner AltynGold (ALTN“is pleased to announce its 1Q21 production results and financial update”, and the shares have currently responded approaching 10% higher to 172.5p. So what’s the news?

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SLP
SLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Buy Sylvania Platinum

On banking near 300% gains on Jubilee Metals (JLP) earlier this year, we noted still significant positives but management actions which were not comfortably supportable. On fundamentals, at 20p, Jubilee still looks to have 10% upside, or arguably more, which is why Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore remain shareholders but we cannot, in good conscience, tip shares in a company where there are such clear corporate governance issues. So, on that basis, the following looks a good replacement for it .

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VRS
VRS
PREMIUM CONTENT

A golden rule about companies that threaten legal action

Of course, there are some instances when it is appropriate to take legal action against some critic. If, for instance, the attacks are against wives and children, there is a threat of actual body harm or the allegations are just so outrageous (paedophilia for example) then a company might justifiably take action. But simply to bring in lawyers, who are always expensive, to try to silence someone who criticises a company’s business model, or its valuation, is a monumental red flag.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

AEX Gold – strategic update and long company chat

I wrote as a slightly miffed shareholder: AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced its full year 2020 results and a further strategic update and I have had a good long chat with CEO Eldur Olafsson. Previously-announced project development delay disappointment looks to be in the price and the potential of the project to still commence initial production by the end of next year does not. Then there is the possibility of equity dilution.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – new research programme adds to the vast potential but its looming Winclove results which are the key

Noting that “there is now an extensive growing body of research demonstrating direct links between the microbiome and the immune system, and consequently skin health”, SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) announced, a couple of weeks ago, initiation of a research programme with the University of Manchester. This is good news but not the elephant in the room!

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JSE
JSE
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jadestone Energy – “pleased to announce” Malaysia acquisition. We can understand why

Jadestone Energy (JSE) is pleased to announce an agreement to acquire an interest in Peninsular Malaysia – and we can understand why.

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J Sainsbury – full-year results show there is still income value

J Sainsbury (SBRY) has announced results for its year ended 6th March 2021 and that it has “carried good underlying trading momentum into the new financial year and started the year strongly”.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Choose Your Rogues Wisely

On the whole, it probably does make sense to avoid investing in companies run by rogues but if one is to break that rule, it pays to back a rogue who knows how to generate cash. Perhaps rogue is too strong a term for Kostyantyn Zhevago, founder and majority shareholder of Iron ore miner Ferrexpo PLC (FXPO), so let us just say he is a colourful Ukrainian entrepreneur, one of the original oligarchs who, finding himself in the right place at the right time, acquired some promising assets for a song and listed his company in London in 2007.

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ZOE
ZOE
PREMIUM CONTENT

Leverage can hurt bulls as well as bears – watch Zoetic collapsing

Given that it has lied on an industrial scale to investors, regulators and consumers and managed first half sales of just £54,000, I think it will not surprise anyone terribly that I view the fair value of shares in Zoetic International (ZOE) as 0p. But I published all the evidence of the malfeasance and parlous financials and the shares still headed to well over 100p valuing this company at more than £200 million. That was two months ago. Now they are 57p to sell and falling fast. If you can short you should do so as this should be a penny stock really very soon.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

In anything other than a raging and insane market this company would be valued at 0p

Verditek (VDTK) is a company that I have exposed as a serial liar and warned about many times before and my bearishness has been vindicated. Last August, at peak ramp, the shares stood at 18p. Egged on by disgraced share tipster Mike Walters, some folks paid almost 20p a pop. Today the spread is 3.7p-3.9p but even that values this business at £12.8 million which is insane as fair value is clearly zero. The valuation tells you everything you need to know about the insane market in which we operate.

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GPM
GPM

Golden Prospect Precious Metals – 2020 results from a great share tip, though more to come

Precious metals companies investor Golden Prospect Precious Metals (GPM) has announced 2020 results including emphasising that, with now a higher metal pricing environment, “the precious metal miners… look cheaper on a P/NAV basis than they did pre COVID (explorers only constituting 11.2% of this fund). So, despite a current 48.5p share price comparing to a 27.6p offer price March 2020 share tip, still an opportunity? Of course it is!

Ferrexpo – Q1 production report, there remains upside potential from this cracking share tip

Iron ore pellet producer in Ukraine, Ferrexpo (FXPO) has announced a first quarter 2021 production report which includes it noting some ongoing pelletiser upgrade work impact though also that there has been some additional production, in terms of high-grade concentrate…

BP
BP
PREMIUM CONTENT

BP – trading and net debt position ahead of expectations, Income Buy

An “update on progress towards net debt target”-titled announcement from BP (BP.), which includes a claim of “earlier than anticipated delivery of disposal proceeds combined with very strong business performance during the first quarter”. This sounds good…

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PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – new research programme - we are already 250% up but far more to come

Noting that “there is now an extensive growing body of research demonstrating direct links between the microbiome and the immune system, and consequently skin health”, SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced initiation of a research programme with the University of Manchester.

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Beggar

Photo from the latest Woodlarks training walk of ShareProphets Reader Robert Lewis.

We are now up to eight rogue bloggers for Woodlarks with J, the son of reader Jonathan Price joining the party. That means one more person for the “having to talk to Dan Levi rota” so spreading the misery of hearing about the evils of Brexit and why disgraced Guardian fantasist Carole Cadwalladr is a genius, more widely. That is all good news. But think of how we will suffer on the day, even if it is now for less than 2 hours each and make a donation HERE. Meanwhile we continue with our training walks. As I look at the snow falling here in Wales I am glad I did my weekly walk yesterday. But here is a photo from Robert in Cornwall as he made it up to 15 miles.

VRS
VRS
PREMIUM CONTENT

A Q1 Review with a question that long-suffering shareholders in Versarien must ask the loathsome Neill Ricketts

As Q1 draws to a close, I have few regrets about having been inactive in the market particularly on the short side.

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CEY
CEY
PREMIUM CONTENT

Centamin – remains a recovery buy

Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) announced results for the 2020 calendar year emphasising “record revenue of US$829 million… generated significant free cash flow, of US$142 million, a 91% increase, making it possible to propose and pay dividends attributable to 2020 of US$104 million”  but also ‘impacted guidance’. A recovery buy?

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Lucian's 3 UK shorts and a big 5 figure sell and buy in my pension fund

I discuss Joshua’s future career, gooseberry planting and two discussions and missives to regulators. Then the three UK shorts of Lucian Miers: TUI (TUI), Cineworld (CINE) and Versarien (VRS). then a five figure sell in my SIPP and how the cash was redeployed with a buy to treble!

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Ferrexpo – full-year results, still further upside to come on this cracking share tip?

Ferrexpo (FXPO) has announced results for the 2020 calendar year and that it expects to deliver a further increase in production this year. It is all looking good…

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PREMIUM CONTENT

AEX Gold – development plan and exploration progress, still a buy

Following recent Nalunaq project development delay disappointment, AEX Gold (AEXG) has noted progress in reviewing the development plan and of exploration work.

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Beggar

The begging bowl goes out – the 4th rogue bloggers for Woodlarks walk is May 29: please donate today

To those folks who have made out like bandits in the current bull market, I ask you to be especially generous. Woodlarks needs your help. This year’s rogue bloggers walk is planned and is on a new route. We will go the extra mile with our walking and we ask you to do the same with your donations.

PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics interims – apologies for delayed update and an upgrade but I had to ponder

Notwithstanding the lock-in shenanigans with Optibiotix (OPTIdiscussed HERE, I am more bullish than ever. The results from Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) for the six months to 31 December 2020 came out on Monday. I apologise for the delayed update but I needed to ponder a while. What we read a few days ago was just excellent. Hence this upgrade.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – strong commercial progress & company chat: this will be inflexion year: buy

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced a “Commercial strategy update” which shows strong progress in its strategy to initially build sales and brand presence and then move up the value chain by selling more product than ingredients and commercialising further compounds. We’ve also had a catch up chat with CEO Steve O’Hara. This should be THE YEAR when profits come close to or exceed £1 million.

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MRW
MRW

Wm Morrison – full-year results, still an Income Buy

Wm Morrison (MRW) has announced its results for its year ended 31st January 2021 and that it is confident it can continue momentum into the new year, expecting both profit growth and a significant reduction in net debt.

Tom

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 21: 2 1/2 hours of cannabis, bears, Lucian Miers and a new stock I've bought into

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Ed McDermott of FastForward Innovations (FFWD) on cannabis stocks and his company. This is, I think, the most interesting CEO interview to date. Then I discuss a new share I have invested a five figure sum into on behalf of the company. Finally there is bear raider turned bull, the bard of the Boleyn, Lucian Miers. You can access the show HERE

PREMIUM CONTENT

Is my Supply@ME Capital owning stalker Charlotte really a man?

In yesterday’s bearcast, I relayed how I had been contacted by a Charlotte Daniels who I was convinced was trying to entrap me and whose phraseology strongly indicated the use of google translate. Two emails later, I wonder if Charlotte, a shareholder in the fraud Supply@ME Capital (SYME), is in fact a British male soccer yob. Here is the complete correspondence, judge for yourself:

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AAZ
AAZ
PREMIUM CONTENT

Anglo Asian Mining – provisional agreement terminates, but is this good news?

In July we noted on Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) a provisional agreement for a “first enterprise outside of Azerbaijan”. Now it has announced those discussions have been terminated. Is a little changed share price response correct?

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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

A Couple of Index Pairs for Turbulent Times

In these times of unprecedented uncertainty, it is not a great idea to make bold predictions about anything related to the markets and if ever there was a good time for sitting on the sidelines it is surely now. I will therefore make two not very bold and related predictions with which I feel comfortable…

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – trading update and company chat, Buy

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced a trading update, emphasising “another year of progress… probiotic and functional fibre divisions achieving profitability”. The shares have though currently responded lower to 55.5p, so what’s the current situation here? We’ve spoken to Chief Executive Steve O’Hara and we believe that Mr Market has got this one wrong.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

AEX Gold – sincere apologies for Nalunaq development disappointment, but average down

There is an “Update on Nalunaq Development” announcement from AEX Gold (AEXG) which we apologise for and about which CEO Eldur Olafsson was also very apologetic in a chat we’ve had. He damn well should be…

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Top-10

Notes from Underground - Most read articles for the week ending February 6

The most read non-Tom article this week is How likely is it that a proper silver short squeeze will happen? by Gary Newman at number seven, or  number 15 including Bearcasts and Tom’s new shareshow. Which one is the best of the week? Tell me in the comments.

Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: as insanity rages I look at the thoughts of 3 great sex symbols and investment legends: Becks, Lucian Miers and Malcolm Stacey

I start with a joke about Lord George Young and the late Jimmy Savile prompted by a discovery my sister made today in Shipston. Then I look at IQE (IQE), Cineworld (CINE) and the scandal that is the David Beckham linked pot IPO.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Lucian Miers adds to his only UK short position and why

In today’s podcast, I look at Iconic (ICON), Eden Research (EDEN), Supply@ME Capital (SYME) and Zoetic (ZOE). I also look at macro madness in UK short caps and look at what happened in 2001 and 1721, both of which were very similar to today.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Good companies just do not get their shares suspended like this - ref a very bad one: Supply@ME Capital

For me, one of the highlights of the past fortnight was stumbling across a discussion in the “private and secret” Telegram chatroom run by shareholders in Supply@MECapital (SYMEwhere morons talked about hiring a hitman to have me killed.  The trigger was the shares getting suspended by the FCA – which regulates the Standard List where Supply shares were traded – after I sent a letter pointing out why they should be suspended.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

AltynGold – “pleased to announce” Q4 production update and we can understand why, shares still cheap

Kazakhstan gold miner AltynGold (ALTN) is “pleased to announce” a fourth quarter 2020 production update – and the shares have currently responded a pleasing circa 30% higher. So what’s behind the re-rate?…

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AAZ
AAZ
PREMIUM CONTENT

Anglo Asian Mining – special dividend & “significant opportunities” - still more upside in the shares

Good News! There has been a ‘special dividend’ announcement from gold, copper and silver producer in Azerbaijan Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ), with it noting that it has delivered expected strong cash generation. So what’s the detail?…

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AAZ
AAZ
PREMIUM CONTENT

Anglo Asian Mining – potentially “great” restored contract areas potential...

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has updated investors on the status of its three restored contract areas located in formerly occupied territories and Nagorno Karabakh following the Azerbaijan & Armenia ceasefire agreement…

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VRS
VRS
PREMIUM CONTENT

Versarien’s “Sound Financial Base”: Two Death Spirals and a Dodgy Loan!

It helps when shorting a company’s shares to have a tailwind and there are few more favourable tailwinds than if that company is resorting to death spiral finance. This desperate measure tells you that all normal financing options are closed to it and that realising cash at punitive and dilutive rates is the only way to survive. The reality of death spiral financing is so grim that it is little wonder that many companies attempt to obfuscate it by hoodwinking investors into thinking that the finance provider is an institution willing to invest in their shares…

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