Advance Energy (ADV) is proving to be probably my worst tip ever, given that I only covered it yesterday and the share price is currently down around 80% following an update on drilling which appears to be bad news, and I can only apologise to anyone who bought based on my piece yesterday. At least it has given my pea brained critics on twitter a day of onanismic delight.
Advance Energy (ADV) is a company which I covered last summer and suggested that although it has a very chequered history, new assets and a completely different management team made it well worth a speculative buy with a drill to come.
A real buzz seems to have returned to the oil and gas sector in recent times and with commodity prices at their strongest for several years, and that even seems to be trickling down to the lower end of the market and the explorers now with some shares on a real rip.
These days there seem to be very few AIM oil or gas companies drilling wells targeting significant resources, and even fewer where the outcome is a success.
We warned continually before 1st October Lekoil (LEK) shares suspension – most recently before that with “Director Loan – Update”, why don’t I think this is going to be good news?. However, Peter Brailey recently noted the company having since needed to continue issuing announcements and these meriting comment for their puke value. And today… “Notification of legal claim”.
Yes Piers Linney is back. I fill in a few gaps for Mail readers including red flags from the latest venture of disgraced Piers, Moblox Limited. Then it is onto macro predictions on oil, gold, interest rates, inflation, house prices, tax, equity markets and bitcoin. Happy New Year.
Hello, Share Followers. Nobody sees the stock market as a sensible place. It’s about as logical as Chitty Chitty Bang Bang. One of the strangest mysteries is how big oil companies continue to see low share prices even though the cost of the black stuff is soaring. It had a bit of a hiccup few week back, but now it’s aiming for the stars again.
Hurricane Energy (HUR) is a company that I’ve been following and covering ever since the days before it drilled the Lancaster appraisal well; through the times when it looked like it could be a big AIM success story; and more recently when it was uncertain as to whether it would even survive.
I commented recently how I saw the oil and gas price having positive movement upwards in the near term. Since then, a few things have changed, but that does not include the oil price, which is still around the $82’ish level. I think an inflection point of pricing has now been reached however, it is not so much a case of fill your boots, as much as batten down the hatches. Two things happened yesterday that have moved my view on oil and gas.
Nostra Terra Oil and Gas (NTOG) is one of those companies that has always seemed to be popular with private investors over the years, but it is hard to see why as all it has done during that time is rack up substantial losses for them.
I have been following the COP26 two-week jamboree of the so called “great and the good” flying into Glasgow on private jets over the last two weeks. I have noted how some 18-year-old school kid from Scandinavia has been teaching our bonkers Prime Minister Carrie Boris Johnston to say Blah blah blah. It has been irritating and an insult to all thinking people. However, the implications to us investors are wide and many. A few views and opinions as the wafflefest comes to a close.
Hello, Share Takers. Shares in big oilers, like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) and BP (BP.), stay subdued. Even though the price of Brent Crude is consistently robust, hovering just below its recent highs of $85 a barrel. As results statements for these giants start to reflect the lofty oil price, I suggest a buying opportunity.
JKX Oil and Gas (JKX) is a company that I’ve followed for a number of years but it has never quite lived up to expectations, nor performed anywhere near as well as its assets on paper suggest that it should have.
BP (BP.) has announced third quarter of the year results, emphasising it is delivering significant cash to strengthen finances, growing distributions to shareholders and investing in strategic transformation.
Hello, Share Johnnies. News that the COP 26 get-together in Glasgow has backed Mark Carney’s plan to make banks and big investors avoid dirty fuels, understandably sent shares down in the likes of BP (BP.) and Shell (RDSA). But not by as much as you might think. And that’s probably because the high price of Brent crude means big oilers will announce juicy profits when they next report.
Petrofac (PFC) shares have been good for trading over the past few years, assuming you managed to get your entries right, but the company has had too many potential issues to really have been considered an investment, unless you had a very high appetite for risk.
Serica Energy (SQZ) has seen a sizeable drop in its share price over the past couple of days, and the news that landed this morning suggests that some got wind of this before the official RNS announcement. TW Note. Surely you are not suggesting insider dealing on the AIM sewer, the “world’s most succesful growth market” – surely not?
Asset manager Lawrence Lepard reckons the end of the bull market in everything is nigh. He sees equity growth slowing a sign that we are near a market top. Last year we had explosive growth in GDP but that has waned in recent months. We printed trillions to get us through the Covid period and now benefits are running out. The economy is starting to choke and the key question is will they do further stimulus or will the markets be allowed to roll over.
Hello, Share Shakers. Nobody ever said the stock markets follow logical paths. And nothing demonstrates this fact more than the current share prices of the oil majors, and even the oil minors. Yes, shares in the ebony nectar rose strongly on the mounting oil price. But now, though the value of Brent crude continues to lift, many oil shares are stuck.
I start with a couple of talkes fromthe Welsh Hovel and what they say about inflation and that almost drove me into buying two stocks for my SIPP. I considered another two but then went for a fifth, an oil and gas play. I explain my thinking behind all. Then I discuss Peter Brailey’s piece on ITM Power (ITM)
Writer Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” has a couple of pretty extreme big calls.
Afentra (AET) is a company I covered a few months back as being worth a look, and it now looks as though it could finally be on the verge of securing an asset with its cash pile.
The oil price is panning out largely as I expected when I last drafted on this matter back in March. We are now at $84 as I type, compared to the $67 when I last commented. I saw a high probability of $100 by year end, and so far, I see little to change my mind. Oil and Gas equity prices lag the commodity prices, and oil lags gas. I see real opportunity here, but not without some downside risk.
To say that I am cross by today’s turn of events would be an understatement. Hence this podcast is short and late and somewhat bad tempered. It covers Asos (ASC), Anglo African (AAAP), Tirupati Graphite (TGR), and Orcadian (ORCA) with another comment on the oil price and oil shares.
Against this backdrop our money is edging ever closer towards its biggest reinvention in centuries, which has implications for us all. Not only will this impact our everyday lives, but it will have a bearing on the future value of our pensions and savings in a world where inflation is back after decades of lulling us into a false sense of security.
Hello, Share Lovers. If you strip out the rising share prices of oil companies, the Footsie is in retreat at the moment. Which is surprising given that, as Boris says, the economy is waking up after the worst ravages of covid. So why should shares be faltering when the signs look rather good?
In today’s Bearcast, I look at oil shares including the one I own and one I may well buy next week, at Brighton Pier (PIER) and at Anglesey Mining (AYM)
Sometimes I look at a company and think its shares are just too cheap at the current market cap and is pretty much being priced to fail, yet in some cases there certainly doesn’t appear to be anything fundamentally wrong that suggests that to be the situation.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP) is a company that I’ve covered here several times before and which I believe has a lot of potential, and the latest drill results certainly seem to support that still being the case.
Hello, Share Collectors. Recently, I suggested that big oil companies might be undervalued. Since then the case for that view has strengthened. There seems to be even more reasons to buy shares in these companies, or at least to keep holding them.
Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced its results for the first half of 2021, reaffirming full-year production guidance of 11,500-13,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and anticipating 20,000 boe/d towards the end of the year. We are well up on this 69p offer price share tip but where do we go from here?
Investor Michael Gentile has a simple message about the only way to cope with inevitable inflation coming down the track towards us and fast.
Back in June I observed about ‘British multinational engineering and consulting business’ John Wood Group (WG.) that ‘having made a small profit a few months ago, my view today is to AVOID (but keep watching)’. As for the shares since then, they have gone down a bit further to currently trade at 222p. I guess I bought more (last year) and sold all (early this year) pretty well. So any interest now?
I have been noting for the last few weeks how the Gold price has been fairly stable (…ish!) whilst Gold stocks have been falling. Last week I had wondered whether a mini double-bottom put in by gold stocks might draw an end to this. Alas, no – here is the chart for Gold, GDX (large gold-miners’ ETF), GDXJ (“junior” miners ETF) and GOEX (gold explorers’ ETF). They are still dropping.
Trinidad and Tobago oil and gas explorer Touchstone (TXP) has made a second quarter operational and financial update, including emphasising it is confident its funding capacity together with operations are sufficient to complete a budgeted four well development program as well as drilling Royston-1, one of a number of milestones it forecasts to achieve in the second half of the year.
BP (BP.) has announced second quarter of the year results emphasising “generating value for our shareholders today while we transition the company for the future”. Sounds good, but what’s the detail?
A few weeks ago I wrote a piece here about Cairn Energy (CNE) shares being too cheap, both in terms of its producing assets and also on the basis of any resolution of its long term battle with the Indian government. Quite a bit has happened since then.
The name Andalas Energy will be enough to send a shiver down the spine of investors who had high hopes for the company, before getting shafted, but the new company that is has evolved into, Advance Energy (ADV), looks very different.
Like many oil and gas companies at the lower end of the market, San Leon Energy (SLE) has had its fair share of ups and downs over the years, but in recent times has been heading in the right direction as it builds its business producing oil in Nigeria.
I have been taking a brief look at AIM-listed Plexus – mainly because its ticker code is POS. So is it? Er……
Kosmos Energy (KOS) has to be one of the most under-rated oil companies listed in the UK, but I think that people that overlook it in favour of some of the more popular producers are wrong to do so.
Cairn Energy (CNE) is a company that I have followed for many years, almost for as long as its ongoing saga relating to compensation from the Indian government, but it is starting to look more likely that will actually finally be settled.
Formerly Sterling Energy and searching for years for a transformative M&A deal, this company is now Afentra (AET), emphasising “a complete transformation in recent months”. Many such-described moves are not particularly transformative but this one looks like it could indeed be…
I3 Energy (I3E) has been a great example of why past failure doesn’t necessarily point to a continuation of that in the future – in the same way that past success doesn’t mean that a company or management team will manage the same again.
EnQuest (ENQ) has announced a proposed issuance of equity “in line with the announcement on 4 February 2021”. So what was that announcement and what is the proposed equity issuance and its impact?
Energy services provider Lamprell (LAM) saw its share price take a big hit following the release of its annual results for 2020, which included a statement about the need to raise further capital via an equity issue – the exact amount and terms of which is yet to be announced.
Previously writing on support vessels provider Gulf Marine Services (GMS), earlier this month with the shares at 3.25p I concluded hopefully my prior caution was heeded. As the attempted refinancing plays out, I currently continue to avoid. Today a “Result of Open Offer” announcement… and the shares currently further lower below 3p…
Pharos Energy (PHAR) has announced a discovery it considers reconfirms the potential for additional oil on the El Fayum concession, Egypt, and that it is about to commence development drilling in the Cuu Long Basin and 3D seismic acquisition in the Phu Khanh Basin, offshore Vietnam. Having helped the shares up to 25.6p, what now?…
Oil has been on a bit of a charge recently and there aren’t any real signs of that strength coming to an end anytime soon, but quite a few of the producers haven’t responded as well as you would expect, in terms of share price movement.
EnQuest (ENQ) has announced a new senior secured borrowing base debt facility of approximately $600 million and an additional amount of $150 million for letters of credit for up to seven years. What is the significance of this?
Previously writing on support vessels provider Gulf Marine Services (GMS), with the shares above 7p in March I questioned it stating “as the numbers demonstrate… in a strong position”. Today a “pleased to announce… proposed capital raising” – and the shares currently at 3.25p…
When I covered Longboat Energy (LBE) last July there was much derision on social media and bulletin boards over my opinion that the company was well overvalued at the share price at that time, but it has just announced that it is raising funds at discount of around 40% to that level in order to complete an acquisition.
Pharos Energy (PHAR) has made an update on its operations in Egypt and Vietnam which the market likes – the shares are higher at above 25p. So what’s the news?…
Hello, Share Strummers. The oil price is firing ever higher. Seeing the amazing volume of holiday traffic in my neck of the woods, I’m not surprised. And yet you would imagine in other parts of the world, India for example, individuals and businesses would be using less ebony nectar. So what does all this mean for an oil giant like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA)?
When an AIM company changes its name it can often be to try and hide a dodgy past, generally where it has raised money consistently from shareholders but failed to actually deliver anything, but there are also times when it can signal a change to the business and a move in the right direction.
Union Jack Oil (UJO) has announced that all necessary consents have been received for the final phase of achieving targeted oil production from the Ashover Grit reservoir, one of the three productive reservoirs present at Wressle, following its 2020 results.
The International Energy Agency was set up in 1974 to ensure the security of oil supplies, if you are old enough, like me, you might remember the Arab oil embargo, queues at petrol stations and rocketing oil prices. So, if the IEA come out and say “that no new oil and natural gas fields are needed in the net zero pathway”, then that must be true and all of us oil and gas professionals can hang up our boots and head to the scrapheap.
So a Ukranian-born oil and media bloke tops the Times rich list with £23 billion. It makes that £200 quid you made on Avacta (AVCT) look a bit anaemic doesn’t it? Second was and third were property brothers David and Simon Reuben .Their assets grew byt £5.46bn to £21.46 billion .
Jadestone Energy (JSE) is pleased to announce an agreement to acquire an interest in Peninsular Malaysia – and we can understand why.
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Optibiotix (OPTI) boss Steve O’Hara and oil guru Peter Brailey. There is also me. I am a big investor in Optibiotix but explain why I am angry but not selling and challenge Peter on how to play oil plus he and I discuss the most overvalued stock on the Standard List, a total joke capitalised at almost £100 million, worth c£1 million.You can access the show HERE
Asset manager David Hunter does not mince his words. Equities are in a late stage melt up but will then, he predicts, fall by 80% as we go from a global deflationary bust followed by an inflationary recovery cycle. We will see dollar weakness now followed by a big dollar rally during the bust.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP) has fallen out of favour with investors in recent days following testing news at one of its wells which the market took badly and caused the share price to drop by more than 30%.
When it comes to Alaskan oil explorer 88 Energy (88E) the hype around its drills has always far outweighed the actual results that it has managed to achieve, as can clearly be seen if you look back at a chart over the past five years or so and the timing of the big gap downs in the share price.
Shares in Predator Oil & Gas (PRD) reached 15p earlier last month, but are now available at a 12.8p offer price £34 million market cap (11.3p offer price, £29 million market cap when this article first appeared). That is despite a recent positive ‘Business development update’ and upcoming potential catalysts. It was our March tip of the month, targeting 18p to sell.
Oil company EnQuest (ENQ) has announced calendar year 2020 results and that “year to date February production averaged 46,635 Boepd, affected by outages, repairs and opportunistic maintenance at Magnus and Kraken”. The shares have currently responded lower to below 19p, but this is a blip. The shares are a buy.
A month or so back I covered an oil company called Pharos Energy (PHAR) as a strong buy and gave my opinion that it was undervalued, and the update today reinforces that view even more.
The oil and gas market is quite hard to read at the moment, particularly when it comes to individual companies which are producing, as some have seen large share price rises whilst others barely seem to have moved despite the fundamentals appearing to be strong.
The recent rise in the share price of 88 Energy (88E) has been very noticeable and it has held those gains so far in spite of the company putting out a statement that it knew of no reason for the rise, other than what had already been disclosed via RNSs.
You are always learning with the investment world. Take Wood Group (WG.), which describes itself as ‘one of the world’s leading consulting and engineering companies operating across Energy and the Built Environment’. Back in August 2019 HERE I rambled on about how I could see the share at five or six quid but – due mainly to the impact of the Covid-19 crisis – the stock instead more than halved to below 150p. Fortunately I spotted an opportunity after publishing some thoughts back in August last year HERE and a week or so later I more than doubled my position at about a 200p share price. The net result is that I am now siting on a small profit. So do I move on or stay excited?
In today’s bearcast I look at Zoetic (ZOE) and why its monster lie from April Fool’s day 2019 does matter, even as Seth Freedman, at the behest of a Zoetic shareholder, harasses another one of our writers at 11 PM. I also look at Peter Brailey’s call on oil, why I agree and how to play it.
Quite often ShareProphets readers contact us asking for an opinion on a particular company, and I’m always happy to take a look – although there is no guarantee that the conclusions I come to will necessarily be what they wanted to hear about the company!
Pharos Energy (PHAR) has been one of the worst stocks that I’ve been invested in – not necessarily in terms of the share price performance, although that has also been awful, but more the way the company has been managed and the amount of money that I’ve seen them waste over the years.
Hello, Share Planners. Investing in a shipping broker has a rather historic feeling to it. Isn’t that where the share game first started, with merchants buying shares in ventures by galleons to exploit foreign markets? Shipping brokers often turn up in the exotic works of my favourite author Joseph Conrad. Any road up, today’s choice is a modern version – Braemar Shipping Services (BMS)…
Union Jack Oil (UJO) has noted an update from the operator on progress at the Wressle (Union Jack – 40%), North Lincolnshire, hydrocarbon development site after the workover rig and associated services and equipment have been successfully mobilised…
EnQuest (ENQ) is a company that I have followed for a long time and have previously been invested in myself, but over the past few years its shares have performed terribly and has never really recovered from the previous oil price slump, which bottomed out in 2016.
You might have noticed that recently I have started covering a few companies in the oil and gas sector as being worthy of a long term investment, and in case you are wondering if I’m mad to be doing so given what is going on in the world, I believe that it is the right time in the cycle to start positioning again.
What a mad year for oil sector investors. We entered with Brent at $68 per barrel. All looked set for a good sector performance, then the oil price fell off a cliff to $16 Brent before recovering to $52 as I type. I stuck my neck out previously predicting some negative pricing and WTI subsequently went spectacularly negative some weeks later. I’m going to try my luck a second time and give my view for what next year may hold in store.
People often try to tell me that it isn’t possible to make money by actually investing in AIM oil and gas companies and that they are only worth trading, but I would have to disagree based on some of those that I’ve picked out over the years as having long term potential.
As any regular readers here will know, I’ve been a fan of Serica Energy (SQZ) for many years and during that time have watched it grow into a mid-tier oil and gas producer, and I believe that now is the time to consider investing in the company once again.
At first blush, we have a lot to worry about when it comes to our shares. Covid cases rising in many areas, a Brexit deal not arrived at, rising unemployment and bank and oil shares still wallowing in the depths. But this old punter has seen it all before. And he knows that the sun will come shining through. Yes, you probably think the arch bull is being overbullish again. But the fact is that I have never sold fewer shares and that state of affairs will continue.
This year a lot of private investors seem to have been focussing on any stocks even loosely associated with Covid, plus those in the tech sector, and more recently mining has also seen a resurgence, gold in particular, but oil and gas has very much remained unloved and out of favour. That gives you a great opportunity and this is no fisherman’s tale…
Having had an involvement in UK onshore drilling decades ago, I follow the sector with interest, and just occasionally my cash. For some time now Union Jack Oil (UJO) has seen me invest and cross my fingers. West Newton has really interested me. Today’s news on the WN-B1Z drill results is a further very positive result, for what could be an exceptional find.
Block Energy (BLOE) is typical of so many AIM listed oil and gas companies, which sound great on paper but usually have spent years failing to live up to expectations whilst burning through considerable amounts of cash in the process.
In my experience there are often opportunities to be had in shorting a company’s shares in the period after a debt restructuring deal has been announced as shareholders are generally slow to grasp the effect of the dilution on their interests…
RockRose Energy (RRE) was one of the real success stories amongst AIM listed oil companies prior to being taken over for nearly £250 million, and now its executive chairman, Andrew Austin, has made a return to AIM with a new venture which listed last week.
Whenever a smaller oil company is drilling a well these days you pretty much have to expect the share price to get hammered unless they announce a substantial find that exceeded market expectations, and that is exactly what hammered to Union Jack Oil (UJO) this week.
These days I generally tend to avoid taking risks on oil exploration drills, but on occasions I still can’t resist taking a position, of a size that reflects that risk, and when the drill looks particularly interesting.
Hello, Share Sharpers. When the market’s closed it’s always worth reflecting on the macro picture. What’s likely to befall all of us who own shares in the coming months? Nobody can tell. Who foresaw the present plague, for example? But we can make educated guesses. And ‘educated’ is the world here, not ‘optimistic’. As you know, we can’t lose dough by guessing right. For what it’s worth, here are a few of my thoughts.
Buying shares in a large company which seems to be going through a rocky patch is always a risk, as in some cases these companies never actually manage to recover, but if you do get it right it can be very lucrative and Covid appears to have helped to create some good opportunities. Energy provider, Centrica (CNA) has performed terribly over the past six or seven years and anybody who has held it as a long term investment during that period of time will be sat on a sizeable loss. Even prior to the arrival of Covid it was already in a downwards spiral with high levels of debt and falling profitability, but the virus accelerated that and even though the markets and many energy shares have recovered to some degree in recent months, Centrica is still trading closer to the lows with a share price of 44.8p…
Currently you could easily argue that there is a longer term investment case for numerous oil and gas producers, based on the assumption that commodity prices will improve over the next few years, and could even spike in the same way that we’ve seen in the past after prolonged periods of low demand.
If there was an award for the worst performing oil and gas share listed on AIM over the past decade there wouldn’t be a lack of contenders, but Nostra Terra (NTOG) would definitely be in the running!
It has been some time since there has been a really big exploration drill for an AIM listed company, but that is exactly what should be coming soon for Bahamas Petroleum (BPC).
AIM-listed Block Energy (BLOE) seems to have made a pretty decent effort at addressing the problems I raised HERE. On Thursday, an RNS appeared which seems a pretty good overview of where things are and announced the departure from the board of NED and former technical director, Mr Roger McMechan…
Hurricane Energy (HUR) promised so much but it looks like it will end up joining the long list of failed companies in the natural resources sector following recent updates, including the interims today.
The level of trust that you have in the management of a company can often play a big part in your willingness to invest.
And you thought that our own Nigel Somerville was nutso. Meet macro strategist David Hunter. Hmm, now what are my shares in Ariana (AAU) & Xtract Resources (XTR)worth on a DCF basis with gold at $10,000 oz? I am only kidding; this is quite literally insane.
BP (BP.) has announced second quarter and half-year results including “underlying replacement cost loss for the quarter was $6.7 billion, compared with a profit of $2.8 billion for the same period a year earlier… A dividend of 5.25 cents per share was announced for the quarter, compared to 10.5 cents per share for the previous quarter” ($2.1 billion)… and the shares have responded higher to nearer 300p…
But enough about black gold what about the real stuff?
Just because a company has traded at much higher share price levels it doesn’t mean that it will do so again, and that is particularly true of oil companies at the moment.
Longboat Energy (LBE) is a company that I actually like and hope does well longer term but, having seen its share price double, I’m finding it hard to see where the value is up here and would be inclined to at least bank some profit...
I had been wondering when further news would come from i3 Energy (I3E) and these week two significant RNSs dropped on the same morning, which ultimately led to shares being suspended for the foreseeable future.
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new, I hope, weekly show. This costs 99p per episode to access and you can either listen or watch very sparky interviews with our in house oil guru Peter Brailey not holding back with a new explicit warning on gas, Stuart Ashman of Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) who was so impressive I have just bought more shares and myself on how gravity cannot be defied forever with reference to zeros in waiting, Amigo (AMGO) and Intu (INTU). You can access the show HERE
The short sellers were smart to highlight Wood Group (WG.) as a top opportunity back at the start of the year as it has been a dog stock this year. Well thematically you can understand why given the sheer volatility in the oil price so far this year and the slash and burn of capex budgets by the oil giants. That is not good news for a company providing a range of services to the sector.
A “revises price assumptions; expects charges at 2Q” announcement from BP (BP.), including February-commenced CEO Bernard Looney stating “in February we set out to become a net zero company by 2050 or sooner… we have been reviewing our price assumptions over a longer horizon. That work has been informed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which increasingly looks as if it will have an enduring economic impact”. Loony or very clever?...
Union Jack Oil (UJO) has announced it “is pleased to publish the positive conclusions of a Carbon Intensity Study on the West Newton hydrocarbon project”...
When you combine one of the least successful AIM listed natural resources companies with probably the worst bucket shop brokers around, then you rarely end up with a good outcome.
There is a lot of focus on oil companies of all sizes at the moment, with many investors speculating on their future recovery now that commodity prices have improved, but I would probably be more focussed on those which largely produce gas.
Chris Vermeulen looks at the current market conditions and sees a trend change coming as precious metals, miners, and bonds are all showing positive patterns. He argues thatb sentiment is reaching new highs, and a lot of leverage is being deployed in the markets.
It shows just how crazy the markets are currently when a small oil company can announce that it has just lost ownership of most of its asset that has the potential to produce oil, yet its share price rockets by more than 100%! I am of course talking about consistent AIM failure, Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL), and its OPL226 licence in Nigeria which has apparently been on the verge of reaching production for several years now, and was due to have an appraisal well drilled later this year, but that was before the emergence of Covid-19 and I’d be surprised if that goes ahead as planned. Even more so following the latest news...
But is Union Jack Oil (UJO) not a UK oil producer in an extremely troubled oil environment? It is… but only in a small and low-cost way and the oil market will swing back to a better environment as it always does. Meanwhile, the shares down from more than 0.30p last year and the asset potential here sees us ride again…yes, we have twice tipped this before and twice told you to bank big gains. Now for our hat-trick...
I noted last week that whilst most precious metals experts were saying this was the time to buy gold Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com was suggesting a correction may be on the cards. Well, gold did indeed slip – as did the gold miner ETFs (so full marks to JRB) and then on Friday it all bounced back again. Was that it?
88 Energy (88E) is a company I had almost forgotten about as it was once one of the most popular oil shares at the lower end of AIM, but has almost disappeared into obscurity since then and only came to my attention when I was contacted by a shareholder.
When I considered PetroTal (PTAL) previously I was particularly focused on the net current asset position at the year-end (31st December 2019). Due to Covid19, the publication of the results to confirm the position has been delayed until mid-June, but my conclusion was a negative position with a very significant balance due to trade contractors. The company fessed up in March, it had agreed to manage the payment position with its contractors – effectively stating it did not have the cash to settle due accounts and was looking for further funding. With the field now shut in the cash flow will have stopped. This is clearly not good.
Currently a lot of private investors seem to be looking around the oil and gas sector for the most bombed out stocks that they can find, in the belief that these will offer the most upside on commodity prices eventually recovering. The big problem with that though is that if commodity prices do stay fairly low for a prolonged period of time, as seems likely given expected demand levels even when things do start to recover plus the huge amount of oil sat in storage currently, then some of these companies may never actually recover...
The company's oily chairman Lyin' Steve Sanderson has dissembled about how paltry is the cut he has temporarily taken in his £700,000 annual pay package. Shareholders have lost 97% of their cash in less than 3 years and have just been diluted again with a bailout placing this week so what does AIM dog UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) do? Its latest tweet is just hilarious. Firstly what is the last thing the world needs now?
One aspect of the recent oil price crash which fascinates me, and which I’ve seen very little written about, is hedging. There has of course been plenty made of the fact that some companies, or even countries, have at least part of their future production hedged at much higher prices than the current level. But what I haven’t seen mentioned is the potential impact on those who are on the other side of these hedges...
For the benefit of Tom Winnifrith, who is considering fully listed Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) as a possible investment for his SIPP windfall, the company offered an update on its quarterly performance to 31 March, the forthcoming dividend of 6 US cents and the effects of the Covid-19 virus so far……and the news was good.
Columbus Energy Resources (CERP) has updated on its measures with it “actively working to make itself resilient during the current downturn” and “optimistic that it will emerge well placed for the future”…
My views on Block Energy (BLOE) haven’t exactly been popular over the past year as it was a favourite with private investors, but unfortunately so far everything has played out as I feared that it would do.
As per my earlier piece, developments in the gold market have left me feeling very enthusiastic so I thought I would offer my thoughts on my various gold holdings, including AIM-listed Ariana (AAU) and Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV), fully-listed Centamin (CEY) and the BlackRock Gold & General and Junior Gold unit trusts – and a couple of other corners.
I don’t need to spell out to any reader of my recent articles on the oil price and specific oil companies, that I’m finding it difficult to see any good investments in the small cap oily space currently. Having written my Vomit list of crap oil shares at Christmas, I thought Easter would be a good time to undertake an interim review.
I spend some of my time contemplating and commentating on the oil and gas sector, but I spend considerably more time actively involved in the power and petrochem sectors. In recent years this has been focused on the waste to energy sector. Every Engineer worthy of Chartered status looks for opportunities to solve problems beyond direct day to day responsibilities- taking what we know and issues arising and thinking about solutions to problems. Here is my view on one issue.
I’ve always gone on the basis that if something doesn’t feel quite right when it comes to non-binding deals being announced, then at the very least it is worth questioning the likelihood of completion. Of course, that isn’t always the case and some non-binding letters of intent, or memorandums of understanding, do in fact proceed as outlined, but my first thoughts when I saw today’s news from Zenith Energy (ZEN) was that it looked very ‘spoofy’...
As usual the bulletin boards seem to be flooded with people saying what a great deal I3 Energy (I3E) has just secured, having announced today that it had acquired Toscana Energy Income Corporation (TEIC).
At the moment most of the focus on commodities that I have been seeing has been on gold and oil, and what people are forecasting for the coming months and longer term. But I suggest we are missing a great opportunity here.
I wouldn’t be rushing to buy shares in any companies at the moment, and probably even less so in anything natural resources related, unless you are prepared to take a fair amount of risk and have a very long-term time frame. The safest option is to just sit on cash and wait for not only the markets, but also the world economy, to turn around whenever we do finally see the back of this virus. You won’t get to buy in at the bottom if you wait for the trend to change, but you shouldn’t also suddenly find that the shares you bought are now another 50% lower! However...
I start with my family and Coronavirus as I discuss in full HERE. then should we taxpayers bail out all businesses? Even frauds? Or the Mob? I explain why folks like our in house Euro loon J Price are so badly wrong. I then look at Laura Ashley (ALY), Itaconix (ITX) and then the oil stocks. Could oil really hit $3 a barrel? Or $10? I look at Echo Energy (TOAST), Nostra Terra (TOAST), Premier Oil (PMO), Tullow Oil (TLW), BP (BP.) and Shell (RDSB)
It has been a truly wild period on the stock market and I fear it is going to get worse before it gets better. The coronavirus has ripped through everything and it is panic stations on the markets – as well as in the supermarkets. Some of it is logical: I’m not sure I would want to own shares in an airline right now, nor a restaurant business, and I would not be surprised to see some casualties in the fullness of time if the coronavirus plays out as seems to be expected.
Newsletter editor David Skarica talks a lot of sense in the latest podcast from Palisade Capital. He starts by comparing Covid 19 to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 and discusses why it was under-reported.
I wrote positively about PetroTel Corp (PTAL) in June and could see real potential for a business of significance to be established. In November I saw the need to restate the cash position as a serious negative together with the lack of Board level oversight as a reason to sell. Last Tuesday the company provided some good detail on the likely operational cash flow at various oil prices. Despite this good guidance (many other oil company’s should note the disclosure detail of netbacks at various oil prices), I have not changed my view. This company needs more working capital.
Hello, Share Rockers. This old punter has held Tullow Oil (TLW) shares since Abraham was a teenager. But I’m inclined to sell now. Perhaps not at the moment as the virus continues to have its wicked way, but that won't last forever. The latest figures, which don't really reflect the virus effect, are not that good...
I am still sitting on my shares in AIM-listed Bowleven (BLVN) which I picked up during the corporate handbags as the old management was given the boot. For a short while I looked very clever indeed as the shares headed north, allowing me to top-slice and last year a special dividend of 15p per share added to my returns. But things haven’t quite worked out as I had hoped….
I3 Energy (I3E) was one of the most popular oil shares on AIM last summer and autumn, but the situation is very different now after a number of failures operationally.
In today's podcast brought to you from Shipston I look at the oil price and what it means for a range of oil shares from the majors down to shitty little oil explorers on AIM. I then return to the coronavirus ex oil and with especial reference to Telit (TCM), Cineworld (CINE) and The Restaurant Group (RTN).. Finally I look at the proposed comeback of disgraced Neil Woodford.
I start with the great global warming nutter who is here today. I then deal with another of that ilk, Malcolm Stacey, and his worries about owning oil shares. I coment on how central bankers might respond to Coronavirus but ask if it will work. I look at Angling Direct (ANG) and Sirius Minerals (SXX).
Looking at the chart for Pharos Energy (PHAR) I wouldn’t blame you for coming to the conclusion that it is best avoided as it has been on a steady downwards trajectory for several years and with little sign of any relief.
Making a profit on small oil and gas exploration and appraisal companies largely comes down to timing your buys and sells correctly, rather than just holding onto your shares through the ups and downs. With many of these companies the actual risk of holding for a drill often isn’t worth it, especially with exploration plays, but good money can still be made in the lead up to drilling activity, and by leaving some profit to run in the case of some of the safer appraisals. Buying when there is a general lack of interest and no immediate operational activity, and then being patient, is often the best way to get in at a good price – even if not necessarily the lowest price, as that generally comes down to a large slice of luck...
Hello, Share Pickers. As a shareholder in Black Rock’s Greater European Fund (BRGE), I take account of what the company’s supremo has to say about the future. And the interestingly-named Larry Fink says climate change worries will cause a "fundamental re-shaping of finance”. And that it’ll come a lot sooner than expected.
Hello Share Peekers. I’ve always regretted my very long-term holding in JKX Oil & Gas (JKX), the middle range producer. That’s because the share value has eroded sharply over the years. However, things now seem to be picking up...
Hello, Share Smashers. The move by BP (BP.) to sell some of its North Sea assets to Premier Oil (PMO) may boost the share price of both companies. Premier will take over the Andrew platform and BP's controlling stake in five surrounding fields, as well as its quarter stake in the Shell-operated Shearwater field. BP will raise £474 million from the deal. The Andrew platform is 140 miles northeast of Aberdeen. Why is BP doing this?...
I jest. The death of Qassem Soleimani sees one more evil bastard heading to hell. While those with #TrumpDerangementSyndrome will shed tears for this Jew hating, terror loving mass murderer, I do not but discuss the impact of this latest Trump triumph on the region, on the oil price and on oil stocks. I look at Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) and at Zenith Energy (ZEN) whrre I am contacted by material shareholders who want regime change something that makes Anglo's desire to own Zenith shares even more bonkers. Finally I suggest that unless Bidstack (BIDS) clarifies three matters urgently its shares will continue to collapse.
Hello, Share Toasters. Have you seen the price of oil now? It’s the highest it’s been for six months. And better than the big spike when terrorists bombed the Saudi oil operation. That suggests rising demand. And, in fact, there’s no sign of emerging countries decreasing their need for the ebony nectar.
Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) was one of the most popular shares on the AIM market at one time, but in recent years it has fallen totally out of favour and its share price has plummeted. It is nearly a decade since this oil explorer first announced a big discovery at its Sea Lion prospect in the North Falkland basin and its share price rocketed, hitting highs of in excess of 550p per share and a market cap in the hundreds of millions...
Excellent news about Malcom's 'big relief' yesterday but I have a different interpretation about a company he mused about earlier in the week: Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB).
Hello, Stare Swingers. As this old punter writes, the Footsie is up nearly 1.5%. Who’d have thought some news that Brexit is almost certainly on the doorstep would send shares soaring? Especially as so many companies have moaned that a break from Europe spells doom and gloom. But Friday’s massive hike in share prices proves one thing…
Hurricane Energy (HUR) is a company that I have been bullish on ever since first covering it as a buy back in June 2014, but things haven’t worked out particularly well for anyone who has been invested since that time. This is rather unfortunate, as from an operational point of view it has performed amazingly well, better than anyone could really have hoped for, and is an example of how an AIM oil explorer can sometimes succeed and take a large discovery all the way through to production. Unfortunately for longer term holders though, that has proved costly in terms of dilution to enable to company to retain 100% of its Lancaster field...
I3 Energy (I3E) is a company which I had high hopes for and have continued to keep the faith with despite being far from happy with the way that the board of directors has handled things during the current drilling campaign. Having screwed up the first Liberator pilot well, which was supposed to have determined the location for a first production well next year on its North Sea licence, and then operationally redeemed itself to some extent by striking oil during an appraisal of its nearby Serenity licence area, and proving that to be an extension of the adjacent Tain field, all eyes have been on the second Liberator pilot drill...
Columbus Energy Resources (CERP) has announced licence extensions and the appointment of a new CEO…
I3 Energy (I3E) has certainly had its share of ups and downs during its current drilling campaign, but I can still see the potential for shares in this to come good.
It has been fascinating watching Sound Energy (SOU) play out over the past few years, but probably less so if you’ve actually been invested in it!
I always find it surprising that private investors are prepared to take big risks on the drilling of oil and gas wells, yet they won’t touch certain shares due to geo political risks.
My views on Block Energy (BLOE) in recent months haven’t exactly been popular amongst shareholders, but unfortunately much of what I feared in relation its operations is now playing out and I feel that investors have been deceived by the company. I have been utterly vindicated. It will get worse for thise who ignore my latest warning.
There seem to be a number of mid-sized oil producers which have fallen out of favour with investors for quite some time now, and I’d definitely have to include North Sea-focussed EnQuest (ENQ) high up on that list...
Any negative news on an oil drill tends to see the share price getting hammered, and that is exactly what has happened today after I3 Energy (I3E) announced that a pilot well had failed to hit the reservoir that it was targeting.
It is hard to see why the share price of Jadestone Energy (JSE) has dropped recently as there seems to be little reason for it to have done so, and on that basis it definitely deserves closer attention...
Cabot Energy (CAB) suddenly seems to have become very popular for such a small AIM oil company, and given the recent news on a forthcoming discounted fundraise, I’m surprised that people are paying a huge premium to that.
President Energy (PPC) has taken a hit recently based on the fact that the bulk of its current oil and gas production comes from Argentina – but longer term that could present a buying opportunity...
The share price of Bahamas Petroleum (BPC) almost doubled following an announcement of progress on its ambitions to drill an exploration well next year, but is such a big rise really justified? Today there is a further ramptastic "technical update", world class prospect, yadda, yadda, yadda.
I’ve always been a fan of Parkmead Group (PMG), but after the last couple of RNSs there have been for this company, I can’t help wondering if my faith in it to succeed may have been misplaced.
There was much excitement back in April when an Arab sheikh took a stake in ADM Energy (ADME), so it must have come as a big shock to investors last week when news broke that he had sold all of his shares and had resigned as the company president.
Hello, Share Scoopers. I still believe that the bigger oil companies are undervalued, given the price of Brent Crude. Yes, recently the oil price has fallen and attempts to revitalise have been thwarted by the general malaise. But that could be a buying opportunity for some oilers...
Taking risks on exploration drills is generally a mugs game and a good way to lose money quickly, but just very so often if you choose carefully, it can really pay off. That was definitely the case with Eco Atlantic Oil and Gas (ECO) this morning when it announced a “major oil discovery” at the Orinduik block in offshore Guyana, when the Jethro-1 drill found 55 meters of net high quality oil pay in the lower tertiary sandstones...
BP (BP.) has announced 2019 second quarter results, emphasising “continuing to deliver strong performance and strategic progress”…
Back in March I covered Highlands Natural Resources (HNR) and its announcement that it was diversifying into cannabis, as well as highlighting concerns over the high level of costs associated with running the business.
Questions have to be asked when a company produces a headline rate from a well test; the CEO goes on an interview road trips talking about how much free cash flow will be generated; £12 million is raised via an equity issue – and then subsequently initial production rates are just a third of what investors were expecting!
RockRose Energy (RRE) has been one of the real success stories amongst smaller oil and gas producing companies in recent times and has grown its business at an incredible rate via a number of acquisitions. It has come an awful long way since I first covered it as a buy here back in April 2018 at around the 350p level, and today it relisted following a deal which constituted a reverse takeover of the Marathon UK and Marathon West of Shetland assets for $140 million. Currently it is trading at around the 1,900p level with a market cap of circa £240 million, representing a profit of nearly 450% for anyone who followed my original buy recommendation...
Hardy Oil and Gas (HDY) has been getting a bit of attention recently with news of a deal to sell all of its assets, which was then followed by a higher priced bid from another party.
There is often an argument for letting your winners continue to run, but in the case of many natural resource stocks listed on AIM you are often better off taking a healthy profit whilst it is on offer.
If legal action is being taken against a listed company you would expect that it would inform shareholders to be informed immediately, so I was more than a little surprised that it took Nu-Oil and Gas (NUOG) more than two weeks to inform the markets of a claim against it.
A couple of weeks ago I covered Sound Energy (SOU) and its recent disappointing drill results which appeared to cement its fall from grace as a favourite amongst private investors. At the time the share price was around 8.7p and I mentioned the fact that some of the placees from the recent equity fundraising of $2.7 million net at 10p would likely be looking to try and create a spike to sell into. Since then I have seen all sorts of rumours on social media, including one that a single shareholder took £3 million of placing shares – which is more than were actually issued!
TomCo Energy (TOM) seems to have become very popular all of a sudden with the share price almost doubling in the last few days.
Hello Share Graders. It’s my birthday. But reaching the age of 34 is a worry. It’s made me die my hair grey. The day is also unusual in that I can’t find any penny shares which I dare to commend to your further examination. So let me turn to one of the biggest commodity companies in the Footsie. A firm with a market cap of £38 billion...
Private investors seem to love the boom or bust scenario that applies to many of the exploration drills for oil and gas, but is it really worth taking the risk on these types of plays?
Unfortunately for any holders, Nu Oil and Gas (NUOG) has played out pretty much as I expected it to over the past couple of years, and anyone holding through this period will have seen their investment decimated.
When’s an oil field potentially not an oil field? Simple in my view – ask UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) to become the operator and see what else you can do with the “asset”! I reviewed in Part 1 my views on the current extended well testing and what I concluded that meant to the investment case, but now I turn to some of the issues I found on review of the planning application seeking consent for continuous production.
I followed the UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) storey from the first shouts of “Gatwick Gusher” back in 2015. I had my doubts back then on what Lyin’ Steve Sanderson said and reviewing the current position this week has not changed my view on the company.
Sound Energy (SOU) has proved to be a great example of why private investors shouldn’t get too far ahead of themselves and start ordering a new Ferrari, based purely on early results in any company drilling for oil and gas.
As an active oil sector investor, I sift through the myriad of AIM listed oilers drilling into the detail of the management, assets and finances before 9 times out of 10 concluding there is something in one or more categories that puts me off investing. Of course this sees me sometimes dismissing companies that go onto to have share price inflation due to momentum and hype before crashing back to reality – Sound Energy (SOU) comes to mind in this respect.
After pontificating on the position of Lekoil (LEK) prior to the results, it merits a review now that the results have been issued. So how did I do with my crystal ball, and where does it leave the company?
As is so often the case with oil and gas drills amongst the smaller companies, private investors built expectations around West Newton up to such a level that the actual results were never likely to live up to that.
When is a net profit not really a profit? When it is being announced by Prospex Oil and Gas (PXOG) would appear to be one answer to that question!
I have followed Lekoil (LEK) for some years now, and as each year goes by, I’ve become more questioning of the investment case. Like so many Nigerian based oilers, the potential seems high but is the reality ever realised?
I3 Energy (I3E) has had a bit of a bumpy ride of late, largely thanks to some untrue rumours which were being spread by certain individuals on social media, but the uncertainty has now been resolved following the latest news from the company...
At the lower end of the market if you want to get an idea of who was inside on placings then social media is often a good indicator, and in particular some of the accounts on Twitter which have significant numbers of followers and have been pushing the company hard just prior to an equity raise...
As long as you are prepared to accept a degree of geo-political risk, then I find it very hard not to like Genel Energy (GENL) at the current share price.
Smaller North Sea oil and gas companies seem to be out of favour, as investors go chasing big profits in riskier, less proven parts of the world, but more often than not the outcome tends to be heavy losses on these types of outfits.
Coro Energy (CORO) was my pick this year during the Dragon’s Den session I was involved in at the UK Investor Show, and I also hold a small position here myself from around the current share price. Like many smaller companies in the oil and gas sector, it is an investment that I class as being speculative, hence not risking huge amounts of money in it at this stage – but there is also a lot of potential upside...
I’m sure some investors must have wondered what the directors of AIM listed oil and gas outfit Highlands Natural Resources (HNR) had been smoking when they announced yesterday that they were diversifying into cannabis!
Hello, Share Travellers. As I'm just returning from a week in Jordan, I'm a bit out of touch with the markets. So allow me to pass on some titbits I picked up in the Middle East which could colour our portfolios in Blighty. My first point is how non-Europeans, as reflected by Jordanians, view the Brexit crisis on our economy.
If there were any prizes for being the worst performing company at the lower end of the market, then Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) would definitely be up there as one of the contenders.
Lots of private investors talk about ‘investing’ in oil and gas exploration plays, but in most cases I would argue that ‘gambling’ is a far more suitable description and has a similar outcome, with the majority ending up losing money.
SDX Energy (SDX) seems to be one of those AIM natural resources companies that has largely been forgotten about by private investors, but it has an awful lot going on over the coming 12 months, and beyond, and if even some of what it has scheduled goes to plan, then I would expect the shares to trade a lot higher...
For junior resource companies which aren’t actually producing anything yet, larger movements in the share price are usually dictated by newsflow relating to the operational side of things, rather than by fluctuations in commodity prices. Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) has gone through a period where not a lot has been happening drilling-wise, and as a result it has seen its share price bouncing around within a fairly tight range for this sort of stock...
Anglo African Oil and Gas (AAOG) has been hugely popular with private investors over the past few months and has seen big fluctuations in its share price as various pieces of news landed during its recent drill – including a placing to raise more money which Tom Winnifrith exclusively revealed here before it took place.
Sudden large drops in share price on larger companies tend to spook investors, but they can also offer great opportunities, either to invest at a cheap price or even just to trade any bounce back towards previous levels.
Hello Share Riddlers. Many of us still invest in oil giants. This is often because of the juicy dividends they pay, while staying fairly secure as reliable cash earners. I think most of us expect that Brent crude will keep rising in value. Yes, there was a nasty fall a few months ago, but the price is making what appears to be a sustained rally now. It’s the oil price which has brought the main oilers fatter profits lately.
Hello, Share Grabbers. Well, the New Year has bumped off to a decent start after a disastrous end to 2018. All the fears about a no-deal Brexit seem to have been priced in now. And some better news about the affair should send shares upwards fast. But, of course, some companies will continue to do better than others...