Our favourite technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com, reckons that Gold is in for some slippage – it could slip down to around $1670 or so in the run-up to the Fed’s first interest rate hike, probably in March. If that is not enough, the minutes of the last Fed rate-setting meeting made it clear that it will be tightening policy – and possibly performing quantitative tightening (the opposite of QE) too. Normally that might be seen as a cue for the yellow metal to nose-dive, and although it fell once again below $1800 it closed the week at a resilient $1797 – down just $33 from the close at the end of 2021.
This week Gold again went nowhere, closing at $1783 against last week’s….er…..$1783. But beneath the apparent market inactivity I sense there is a change of sentiment going on. The issue for me is that in theory, with interest rate rises on the horizon (making bonds more attractive) and suggestions that inflation may be moderating, Gold should be falling in price yet it is holding up quite nicely.
Gold closed this week at $1792 – up from last week’s $1768 and like last week it had a pop at $1800, reaching $1813 before being batted back down below $1800. Gold stocks had another good week too, as can be seen on the chart showing Gold, GDX (major producers’ ETF), GDXJ (“junior” producers) and GEOX (explorers) below.
Gold closed the week at $1757, down a tad from last week’s $1761 but pretty much unchanged. Nothing to write home about, perhaps, but very quietly Gold stocks seem to be showing a little more poise than of late. My chart of Gold against GDX (Gold majors’ETF), GDXJ (Gold not-so-juniors ETF) and GOEX (Gold explorers) shows what I am talking about.
Having traded between around $1800 and $1830 for the past month, on Friday Gold finally gave way and dropped to $1763. Gold Stocks duly followed. So what lies ahead? Further declines, a jolly good bounce or just flat-lining?
Last week I noted that the calamitous latest US jobs data had helped the yellow metal over the $1800 mark and Gold reached $1831 as the magnitude of the miss sank in. Jordan Roy-Byrne, of TheDailyGold.com had been predicting a rise to between $1825-1850 before hitting overhead resistance and this week saw inflation data pushing ever higher which was taken as a cue to sell off.
Last week I sensed that we were near the bottom of the correction in the Gold price at $1700 per oz. This week I see that Gold has risen to $1728: things are looking up! So have we finally seen off the grinding correction which started last August?
We are not quite at the all-time high, but Gold posted an all-time high last night in terms of its weekly close, is US dollar terms. We have moved a long way very fast: just 17 days ago the yellow metal cracked $1800 and only in March the price dipped below $1500. Year on year the price is up by around a third. I noted the other day the danger of a bit of a pull-back, but it hasn’t quite happened yet.
The bears are looking extremely foolish right now. The coronavirus appears to be in retreat and equities are roaring, US jobs data yesterday was taken as bullish, the Nasdaq scored a new all-time high the Dow Jones index closed just 8% off its all-time high and gold has been in retreat. So all is wonderful in the garden, right? I’m not so sure – in fact, I think things are setting up for another big crunch. To coin a phrase (from Alan Greenspan, former head of the Federal Reserve): the markets are exhibiting irrational exuberance.
Equity markets have had a startling run since posting coronavirus lows back in March. It seems to me that the appetite for risk hadn’t been dented and most seemed to believe in the V-shaped recovery theory once the economies around the world had reopened. Most startling for me is that the Nasdaq was actually up on the year so far. That seems to me to be utter lunacy: I see an “L”-shaped non-recovery for the time being.
Yesterday’s online extravaganza at our one-off ShareProphets Shares Conference was sensational - all the videos are now up for a la carte selection if you are yet to view. Just for a start, the technical side was pretty ground-breaking and there were some who thought that technical matters would get in the way, but Darren did a fantastic job (although I don’t think we’ll be seeing him today as he recovers from the marathon). And then there was Tom Winnifrith on a marathon serial interview session – sixty hours of it! Stunning. Absolutely stunning. And the content was exceptional – whether or not you agreed with what was being said, it was presented logically, tested incisively by Tom and there was much to make me sit up and think. And that brings me to the yellow metal.
I see that our favourite technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com is getting ever more bullish. Although he is a gold-bull, he is often rather dour in his opinions shorter term but it seems that the flood-gates have opened – not just with reference to his charts but with reference to anything to do with gold. More importantly, it seems that the big institutional money has finally started to arrive. Bank of America has slapped at $3000 target on the price of an ounce of gold over the coming eighteen months, well up on its previous forecast of $2000.
Peter Schiff puts an interesting question in his latest podcast here in relation to the rout of Oil futures this week: could it happen in reverse with gold? The action of the oil market this week has been terrifying. Or at least it should be, as a barometer of what is to come in the holed economy purportedly as a result of Coronavirus, although I would argue the issue is more of a giant everything bubble that was waiting for a pin. Well, the pin duly arrived and our very own Peter Brailey has covered himself in glory, correctly predicting negative oil prices. So what is Peter Schiff’s point?
It is a big question: where can you make money now? More to the point, with economic uncertainty the order of the day, perhaps not making money but just preserving capital as best you can should be the focus. Are shares going to go up? In general, I doubt it – at least for the time being. With interest rates at historic lows and therefore bond prices sky-high it is hard to see much progress there too. Perhaps we should all just move into cash? But central banks are printing, governments are borrowing so the threat of devaluing currencies makes that option unattractive too. What to do?
Warren Buffett is famed for many pithy comments such as “When the tide goes out you see who wasn’t wearing trunks” in the wake of the banking crisis. It is often the case that those who really understand what is going on are best able to explain it in simple terms and this week Peter Schiff offered up another. The point here is that we are being told that everything will return to normal once the coronavirus has been dealt with – Peter Schiff completely disagrees.
It looks as though the mass dash for cash may have halted abruptly as far as gold is concerned – and silver. Having been lower before closing last week at just under $1500, it seems that yesterday’s announcement from Fed Chairman, Buzz Lightyear of QE to inifinity….and beyond has set the gold price alight. We are now at $1665 and rising vertically...
The price of gold seems to have fallen over the edge of a cliff. This morning it fell below $1450 per ounce as the sellers moved in in spades – so is there anything to worry about? Well, yes there is – but it is not the price of gold: it is the magnitude of the calamity heading this way. Snowflakes may be selling but old fogies like me and that young whipper-snapper Tom Winnifrith have seen this before. And so too have our good friend Malcolm Burne (on and off of Golden Prospect) and the inimitable Peter Schiff.
The reference to scumbags John Belliss and Gavin Burnell is explained in full in this podcast which covers CyanConnode (CYAN), Audioboom (BOOM), Magnolia Petroleum (MAGP), Revolution Bars (RBG), Peter Schiff and the economy, AIQ (AIQ), Tern (TERN) and Haydale (HAYD). Both Brokerman Dan and I are now training with blisters. This weekend I move up to a 14 mile walk ahead of our 32 mile July 28 stroll for Woodarks. Thanks to all who have sponsored us. swe have now raised more than £8,000 with gift aid and are at 34% of our target. To those 90% of you listening who have not pledged, surely you can spare a tenner. You can donate £10 HERE.
Libertarian Peter Schiff is a great hero of mine and I am glad to see him calling Bitcoin out as a bubble.
Peter Schiff is a libertarian a gold bug and a hero of mine. So I listen to what he says. His latest podcast - not surprisingly - has a similar world view to mine. The Fed is now indicating it needs evidence that the Q1 weak economic data is transitory and not a trend. This is interesting for 2 reasons. The Fed’s narrative has always been to tout economic growth even in the face of flimsy or no supporting data. Now the Fed is actually admitting there is weakness. The other interesting thing is that, although the Fed continues to claim it is “data dependent”, it has been ignoring the economic data ever since the first rate hike. The market puts chances of a June rate hike at almost 100%. Maybe that is because it believes the Fed will raise rates regardless of proof.
Libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is a big hero of Tom Winnifrith. He called the 2008 crash and he has also made some duff calls. But what he says about US retail in his latest podcast is fascinating. What happens in the US will wash over to the UK in due course. This is terrifying stuff to listen to.
Libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is one of my heros and his latest podcast reminds us all why the stockmarket may be hitting recorcd highs but it is clearly way overvalued.
Libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is one of my heros and his latest podcast reminds us all why we need material gold exposure in the months that lie ahead. Inflation is back!
Is the Trump rally fizzling out? Yes it is. But is this going to be a soft landing? No. That is the view of libertarian gold bug superhero Peter Schiff who explains in his latest podcast that bubbles just do not go away gently. And we are living in a bubble.
Shares may be zooming in the Trump rally but libertarian gold bug ( and all round super hero) Peter Schiff does not think it will last or is sustainable. But the first casualty of the bonds sell off will be commercial real estate warns Schiff in his latest podcast.
Admittedly I have been slow to get tickets to the circus sideshow that is Cloudtag (CTAG), yet another company in the little device that monitors your health consumer space. Team ShareProphets has been writing about this company for months now, commenting on its lack of product in stores and its RNSs promising sales in 2016 that have been damp squibs.
Libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is a hero of mine and in his latest note he makes a very vaild point about Donald Trump - he could well bankrupt America. Over to Schiff:
Folks have focussed on how shares have zoomed since Donald Trump won but what about the bond market which saw its worst week for five years? What does that mean and will it continue? Yes it will. That is the warning of libertarian hero and perma bear Peter Schiff in his latest podcast.
Libertarian gold guru Peter Schiff is a big hero of mine. In his latest podcast he discusses why he thinks US Q3 GDP data was rigged and why Us consumers really are feeling bad. He also explains for anyone too thick to understand why the Hillary Clinton email issue really should send her to prison and why he thinks Trump deserves to win and now may well win. And what this all means for the markets. Peter called the 2008 crash now listen to what he says on US car leasing and what that tells you. It tells you that there is a meltdown coming folks...
As you know, Peter Schiff is a hero of mine, a libertarian and gold bug he predicted when and why things would go wrong in 2008. Schiff says the next meltdown will be worse and it will be soon and explains why in this compelling new video.
There are several reasons the world economy is unsustainable within the current systems according to my hero, the libertarian Gold bug Peter Schiff. We have featured Peter several times here in recent weeks - see HERE. He believes the biggest factor is countries like the US which have huge deficits. They have low production rates requiring mass imports of goods in exchange for pieces of paper that are losing their value. This forms imbalances which destabilize the global economy. There are also enormous amounts of bonds and unfunded liabilities which creates vulnerability to a backup in interest rates. If rates go up, they can’t afford to pay.
Libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is a hero of mine. This latest podcast on the bond bubble and the nightmare of a Clinton Presidency is really superb. On Crooked Hillary he really is very funny and very accurate. Spare 25 minutes for a listen.
You know that libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is a major hero of mine. In his latest video he shows how real GDP growth is negative, it is collapsing. And that has profound implications for all of us on both sides of the pond. This is cracking stuff from Schiff. Yes we really are in recession already!
Full disclosure: I am a gold-bug. I love gold. And I think the economic doom-mongers like Peter Schiff make fantastic arguments for a radically higher gold price. We are in uncharted monetary territory which threatens the fundamental integrity of our paper currencies. But I also know that investing on the basis of an impending apocalypse means betting on something that has never happened before. History tells us that stock markets and most of their constituents tend to survive wars, disasters, economic collapse, etc.
This is classic Peter Schiff with the great man explaining to Alex Jones why he thinks that the US economy is already shrinking and getting worse. In essence Trump is right - the economy is broken. He describes negative interest rates as an admission of failure and warns of an impending dollar slump.
Once again Peter Schiff is on cracking form explaining why the bogus economic recovery is not real. The short video below is a classic
As you know Peter Schiff is my hero, a libertarian sound money man. In his latest video he explains why the next move in US base rates is going to be down and why rates could go negative. On the basis of that he advises buying gold.
Peter Schiff is a libertarian hero of mine. He called the 2008 crash brilliantly - its causes and what would happen. Now he calls the great crash of 2016. This interview with Schiff is frightening and compelling and what he says about the US also applies to Britain. Schiff thinks we are sleepwalking to insolvency. Show me how he is wrong!
I greatly enjoyed the video below concerning the great Peter Schiff. Peter Schiff was right. He called the 2008 market meltdown to total derision. Seven years later we are here again and so as well as scanning Bulletin Boards for the usual suspects (Quindell, Daniel Stewart, Worthington) for examples of sheer idiocy you might check out what the bulls are saying as their predictions look ever more useless. As always post your entries in the comments section below by midnight Sunday.
The Fed, QE4, Interest Rate Hikes, and THE FED! Peter Schiff thinks the Fed has finally reached the end of the rope and the so called recovery is about to come to an end. Schiff called the 2008 crash spot on. And – as you may have gathered here – he is a bit of a hero of Tom.
Are we headed for a monumental monetary disaster? Peter Schiff is the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, a broker dealer, and predicted the housing crisis and the stock market crash of 2008, and he continues to make predictions on where the markets are going. Things aren’t looking that bright in general, according to himself, and we are in for more trouble. That is the worrying theme of his interview this week with my colleagues at Palisade Capital. He makes very good points IMHO.
Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3) is over but QE will be back. The real economy has not been kick-started all that the US has done is make zillions for Wall Street by creating new asset bubbles. And asset bubbles always pop in the end. This week my colleagues at palisade capital interviewed Peter Schiff , the President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital and also the author of NY Times best seller “Crash Proof 2.0” and he makes the point incredibly well.