I wrote recently that, as a bear, one should not worry too much about big names appearing on the share register of a company of which one is short and have noticed that when a company is on the verge of failing, it is often the case that some bright spark decides to have a go and hoover up some equity…
I resisted the temptation to short Premier Oil (PMO) a year ago, along with Afren, Gulf Keystone and Petroceltic as it was never in the same basket case league as that lot. I even hitched a brief ride North as it became clear that a wipe out was not going to happen. (In case I come across as arrogant or smug I should declare that I was short Hurricane Energy at the time which more than did for the Premier rise)
At time of writing bondholders in AIM-listed over-indebted Igas Energy (IGAS) are meeting in Oslo, having been summoned by the company to consider proposals to waive certain bond covenants while a restructuring of the company’s capital is negotiated. Igas previously indicated that a bond covenant breach was anticipated to occur this very week. Will the bondholders play ball?
I have had rather a soft spot for the management of Xcite Energy (XEL) ever since it responded to a rise in its share price by effectively warning over exuberant retail punters that its shares were close to worthless.
When I penned my one and only suggestion in the 2015 ShareProphets Christmas tipfest, AIM-listed Igas Energy (IGAS) shares sat at 18.5p on a market capitalisation of £55.3 million. They have been all over the place since then – up as high as 21p twice and down as low as 10p. They are currently 12p as the last bubble nonsense deflates gently but has anything really changed? Er, no. The company is still drowning in debt which it can’t repay and the lit fuse is now almost ten months shorter. Igas remains a stonking sell.
Those dreaded phrases "strategic review" and "breach of banking covenant" should have warned you that Circle Oil (COP) was toast and I warned you often enough in bearcasts. But it today Circle has admitted that the game is up yet one broker does not get it and has published the worst note in history or at least since Cenkos & SP Angel told folks to reject the 3p bid for Petroceltic (PCI)
I start with a few comments on Brexit The Movie, noting how the EU has screwed the little guy across the continent but especially here in Greece. Then it is onto the pathetic bleatings of Mr O'Cathain of Petroceltic (PCI) and also a demented analyst from Cenkos. Both deserve piano wire. But what lessons do we learn from the wipeout of Petroceltic and their dismal attempt to gain forgiveness?
Shares in troubled gold miner Avocet Mining (AVM) more than doubled the other day as its first quarter production update showed an increase of 3,149 oz at a cash cost of $925 per oz, $169 lower than the preceding period.
We were meant to record a video. In fact we did record but something went wrong and the Conservative Club with its cheap beer beckoned. And thus the video short letter appears as a contemporaneous note.
Oh dear. You cannot say that you were not warned by this website but those morons who were hoping that they would get at least 3p for their Petroceltic (PCI) shares must now brace themselves for 0p. It is a day of shame for certain City analysts, the board and the morons who, in many cases, were the architect of their own doom.Vindicated I laugh at my abusers...
Having stated its offer for Petroceltic (PCI) was conditional on 90%+ acceptances, Worldview has announced at closing valid acceptances of 54.6% have been received and that resultantly “the acceptance condition has not been satisfied and the offer has lapsed”. Uh oh…
Until today the board of Petroceltic (PCI) has either opposed or refused to endorse the 3p a share offer made by Sunny Hill Ltd, aka 29% shareholder Worldview. Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of pounds have been spunked on advisers and drawn as boardroom pay while the imbeciles who made Petroceltic what it is today ( effectively bankrupt) denied the inevitable.
As a bear of Gulf Keystone (GKP) since 180p, I note that the shares are now just 11p after the publication of results which are at every level just a disaster - even today this is a storming sell. Where to start?
With Petroceltic (PCI) put to bed I am looking for borrow in UK Oil and Gas (UKOG) which seems crazily valued at £51 million and represents cracking value to short at 2.43p Any suggestions are welcome. I am not short but would like to be.
I think it is probably fair to say that Petroceltic (PCI) Chairman Robert Adair and CEO Brian O Cathain do not feature on the Christmas card list of Worldview’s Angelo Moskov who now, finally controls the company, having snapped up 70% of the company’s debt at a substantial discount to face value.
I reckon that Petroceltic (PCI) is toast and that the villains of the peace are the management who drove it into the ground. It is toast. But broker SP Angel thinks 29.6% shareholder Worldview has questions to answer and reckons other investors should put up a fight for a better deal. I think the broker is wrong but in the interests of balance, it writes today...
In the race to 0p who will win? After today's statement FastJet (FJET) is in the running as is LGO Energy (LGO), PetroCeltic and XCite Energy (XEL) which also had news today. I also look at Plethora (PLE) and the idea of something which is too good to be true. Then I move onto Richard.Chase@Nyotaminerals.com - if you have not emailed the greedy useless mother yet PLEASE DO SO NOW. I offer up a suggested form of wording for your email. Warning/ Bad language alert.
And yet again the Bulletin Board Morons take something of a battering because they thought they knew better. This time it is - essentially bankrupt - Petroceltic (PCI), shares in which have this morning been suspended pending clarification. Ooops a daisy.
One of the benefits of being a short seller is the joy and happiness that one engenders in others when being sandbagged by a short call that goes wrong. I have closed out my position in InternetQ (INTQ) at a substantial loss,
A day truncated by medical appointments sees me start the podcast with Grantchester and the Mighty Hammers - the article I mention on the latter is HERE. Then it is onto the disgrace at 3Legs (3LEG) for which there can be no excuse and where there is more to come. Then onto Horse Hill, a funny smell and the THREE placings on the way. I look at African Potash (AFPO), LGO Energy (TOAST) and the total farce at Petroceltic (PCI - bad language alert in that section.
Warning: The podcast contains both bad language and also a lot of abuse directed at Australians.I start with the guys who run Slater & Gordon and accept that they can't be thrown to saltwater crocs who have not eaten since Christmas. shame. Its all down to geography. I then move onto the liar David Lenigas, Rare Earth Minerals (REM) and LGO Energy (LGO). Then to Bingo Bango Bongo (BGO) WTF is going on? Petroceltic (PCI) - the new Afren in every respect - and then to 4D Pharma (DDDD), Finally I dwell on the spectre of mass unemployment in certain sectors in China, the UK and the USA and what it means.
At first I thought that Angelo Moskov of Worldview must have gone crazy to bid 3p per share for the 70% of Petroceltic (PCI) that he doesn’t already own. But I see now that there is method in his madness and that he is merely trying to remove the current management from ongoing discussions with the banks before they lose patience and pull the plug on the company.
Bidder Worldview has made it clear that Petroceltic (PCI) equity is worthless and the fact that the debt trades at 35 cents in the dollar shows that it is right. As such the 3p per share offer from Sunny Hill ( aka Worldview) is the best outcome for idiots who own these shares. That the Bulletin Board Morons are in denial - see HERE - is no shock but leading City brokers? WTF. Prepare to meet an analyst who makes an amoeba look like a multi-brained frigging genius.
I start with Jimmy Savile as I have no apologies for running this yesterday.The BBC enquiry is just another establishment cover up and I explain why. Then it is onto investor denial at Petroceltic (PCI), not at Premaitha (NIPT), but at LGO Energy (LGO). I explain why Volex (VLX) is - and always will be - a shit company. Then I ask Rob Terry and Knob Park to unblock me on twitter as we should all have an online beer and popcorn party late on Sunday when Slater & Gordon (SGH) reports its results. I'll be up to do a special podcast and it will be fun. I hope you'll be joining me and that Rob will unblock me so he can take part too. There is also a brief comment on Nyota (NYO) where the piggery by a useless CEO is about to stop.
Time and time again we bears warned folks that shares in Petroceltic (PCI) were essentially worthless. But the Bulletin Board Morons - as always - knew better. Tom Winnifrith is just a failed fund manager/pizza boy/alcoholic they chanted as they bid the shares to 20p+. Oh dear folks, this former oil analyst has no sympathy as today Petroceltic received a bid at just 3p per share and that is as good as it will get. The Morons - as ever - just do not know what they are talking about.
It is now 48 hours without nicotine and lefty luvvie Emma Thompson attracts my ire. there is also comment on the Horse Hill ramping and Leni-maths, the tobacco smugglers at Afriag (AFRI), Fusionex (FXI), Adolf Hitler's business cards, Iofina (IOF), Petroceltic (PCI), Environmental Recycling (ENRT), Edenville (EDL), Tertiary (TYM), Totally (TLY) and Igas (IGAS).
The website of hedge fund Worldview Capital doesn’t give much away. We know that the principal is a Bulgarian named Angelo Moskov, and that one of the firm’s specialties is “Distressed debt situations including restructurings”. How much money the fund has under management or who the investors are is unclear.
I start with today's placing news from Deltex Medical (DEMG). I do not reckon that this will be its last placing and its language stinks at every level. The money will be used for "working capital". Bollocks. It means to "fund our ongoing fucking losses". And there is more. Yes this is a bad language special. And if you are a Guardian reading loser who thinks the NHS is cash starved you will also be offended. I also look at Petro Matad (MATD), Petroceltic (PCI), Rose Petroleum (ROSE) and once again push Wandisco (WAND) for a statement. Is there a "strategic review" yet? How close are you to tits up time?
I have won £5 from Shipston's Buffett for tracking down a long lost cousin to whom he has not spoken in 50 years. That is my main achievment today. I shall comment on InternetQ (INTQ) and MX Oil (MXO) elsewhere. I start with a look at BP (BP.) and explain why we have bought the shares today. Then I look at Corero (CNS) in detail and at Condor Gold (CNR), Nighthawk (HAWK), Petroceltic (PCI), Mosman (MSMN) and Aureus (AUE) before a detailed look at the dog Blur (BLUR).
Judith W is one of those folks who just get a kick out of posting nasty things about me. Having been put in her place on her last smear she is at it again with a post on this website which is scant on factual accuracy but makes me worry for her sanity.
Anyone who thinks that Worldview is going to pay more than a nominal amount for Petroceltic (PCI) shares, if indeed it bids at all, needs to read this. A source close to the situation tells me that $60 million of its $220 million of borrowings is now being hawked around the debt markets at just 35 cents in the dollar.
I am sorry for the delayed podcast but I am only just back from time in the Grim Northern welfare safari with the mother in law and thus can now let myself go with a volley of bad language. I end with an explanation of who benefitted from the £150 million + Himex fraud at Quindell (QPP) laid bare earlier HERE and how it also affects Watchstone (WTG). Before that I talk of my annoyance on the silly blogger spats and the explain the difference between a cash shell and an investment company and why I regard our work on exposing the latter as invaluable. In the middle segment I have more bad news for oil companies such as XCite (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Petroceltic (PCI) & Gulf Keystone (GKP) and for the sector as a whole but also for the markets. Dont blame China, we bears are still in the driving seat.
Warning: This Podcast contains bad langauge throughout as well as a couple of mother in law jokes. In it I cover TrakM8 (TRAK), Petroceltic (PCI), Frontier Resources (FRI), criminals who should be in jail, Plethora (PLE), Pinnacle Technology (PINN), Plutus Powergen (PPG), Fusionex (FXI) and the fate of those follishly buying into shitty little oil stocks today.
Oh how the morons like being rogered. Today's lesson is Petroceltic (PCI) where 29.6% shareholder Worldview has said that it may make a cash offer for the company subject to due diligence, etc, etc. Petroceltic shares have raced ahead by 85% to 20.1p valuing the company at £39.7 million. This is of course madness.
I warn you that this podcast contains bad language from the start as I discuss how - as a customer - I hate BT (BT.A) with a passion. I then move onto China Norfolk Taihua (TAIH), a brief Jabba the Hutt section on Solo Oil (SOLO) and LGO Energy (LGO) and a look at SeaEnergy (SEA). Oil disasters dominate the fallers and in that vein I cover Petroceltic (PCI), MX Oil (MXO), Iofina (IOF), Magnolia Petroleum (MAGP), Bahamas Petroleum (BPC) and Range Resources (RRL). I also have a butchers at the fun and games at Altona (ANR).
The weekend news from the oil sector is grim. I am not sure that folks out there in, what Malcolm Stacey might term, punterland realise just how grim it is. There is a massive PR and IR industry supporting the proposition that things can only get better. Au contraire, for the next few months at least, they are going to get a lot worse. And in that spirit I offer up a list of eleven oil E&Ps to sell now, to get out what and while you can, as they could well hit zero.
In this podcast I discuss Chris Oil's Christmas carol, part 1 HERE and parts 2 & 3 to follow. My Christmas Carol series always gives me great pleasure to write and I hope you enjoy reading them. And I beg you to fill in the Christmas win an iPad survey HERE. Then it is onto David Lenigas, Sam Antar, Petroceltic (PCI) and Wandisco (WAND) and to what little treats are in store for tomorrow. Ho Ho Ho. Finally i wish you all a Merry Christmas, none of this PC seasons greetings bollocks from me.
Petroceltic's (PCI) year just got a whole lot worse when at 5.24pm yesterday, a.k.a '' nobody is watching o' clock " the company rolled out the red carpet of piffle from an operational and financing update inc. a strategic review. As Petroceltic has a history of trying to gag anonymous bloggers (whilst I don't hide) I think I'll skate gently on the thin ice its business model is built upon. I don't want to spend Christmas suffering another attack from an army of delusional investors crowing that Petroceltic is a real value play when in reality the paddywack performance is plain to see.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at Petroceltic (PCI) , San Leon Energy (SLE), XLMedia (XLM)
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at firstname.lastname@example.org - Today I look at shares of Aquarius Platinum (AQP), Falcon Oil (FOG), Petroceltic (PCI) and offer some share price targets.
Featuring shares in Caza Oil & Gas (CAZA), Iofina (IOF), New World Oil & Gas (NEW), Petroceltic (PCI)
The market is clearly unimpressed with Rockhopper Exploration’s (RKH) acquisition today. The company’s share price has fallen to 6.15% to 57.25p, last seen. Perhaps investors are concerned to see the $11.5million drop in Rockhopper’s cash pile, perhaps they aren’t overly enamoured with an entry into Egypt or perhaps this is just simply a reflection of the general distaste for all things oil. Whatever the case, on a fundamental basis, today’s news looks attractive. That is so long at the crazies don’t sweep to power in Egypt!
The 35% drop in Petroceltic International’s (PCI) share price over the last three weeks has been one of the most predictable events of the year. Once the company’s major shareholder, Worldview, fired the first shots in the latest civil war to engulf the company, there really was only one direction the stock could take. Against the backdrop of a persistently low oil price, lingering concerns about the health of Petroceltic’s balance sheet were bound to have a depressing effect. This morning the company issued its latest response to this unfolding disaster. And it doesn’t exactly inspire one with much confidence, even at 58p per share.
If you want me to analyse a stock for you just drop me a line at email@example.com - Today I look at Petroceltic (PCI), Strat Aero (AERO), Utilitywise (UTW).
Just over a year ago, Worldview Capital Management, Petroceltic International’s (PCI) largest shareholder, launched a stinging public attack on the company’s board. Petroceltic responded, there were some closed door negotiations and by the middle of June 2014, a compromise was reached. Boardroom changes followed, which seemed to ameliorate Worldview. I tipped Petroceltic at 150p, as a contrarian play against the prevailing negativity this little drama caused. By the start of October, the company’s share price rose to 221p, only to fall back dramatically as the market for oil went into meltdown. Today Petroceltic trades at 101.5p, Worldview is back and this time it means business.
The Olive harvest at the Greek hovel is finally underway and so it is a late BearCast. On the agenda: Beacon Hill, Radiant Growth (a Daniel Stewart special), Xplorer (a disgrace), Petroceltic, Rose Petroleum, Quindell (a fraud) and New World Oil & Gas (a total shocker).
I’ve spent a little time this morning wondering how I could write about events in Kurdistan. It is horrible hoping to profit out of human suffering, but I’ve had to remind myself the market is amoral. It simply reflects the good and the bad of our society, for better or worse. I’ve chosen to be a market commentator and it is more than probable that if you are reading this piece you’ve chosen to buy stocks. However we might feel about what is happening in the world, in this aspect of our lives our goal is simply to grow our wealth by as much as we can. Fear often leads to the best buying opportunities. It is generally a costly mistake to ignore this. The precipitous drop in the value of the various companies with Kurdish oil ventures could prove to be a significant opportunity for anyone who believes in the long term viability of these operations.
It is probably best to get the negative factor out of the way here first at Petroceltic (PCI) – that of Egypt, and the upstream oil & gas explorer’s exposure to the “Arab Spring” nation.