I'm sorry, but I have a reputation to protect. This is all to do with an excellent cause, which 94% of you are yet to support. Please do so, HERE. I then discuss Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV); Amigo (AMGO); Versarien (VRS); THG (THG); Morses Club (MCL); and Argo Blockchain (SPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOF).
Tomorrow's training walk really will start at 4.30 AM. I promise. If you are among the naughty 95% yet to donate, please do so HERE. After that, there is more work on the Ha-Ha, ahead of a new idea which I will announce next week. I start with how NOT to get a job, when I was the one who got you an interview! I end with why this year, it will be I, not Malcolm, who calls the housebuilders right. In between, I discuss a share my SIPP bought yesterday; the fund and games with Vin Murria at M&C Saatchi (SAA); Cellular Goods (CBX); and THG (THG)
A bit over six months ago I observed that there were “so many reasons to keep on avoiding The Hut Group”, which we now know as THG (THG). Since I wrote then the shares have continued post IPO shocking performance and today sit at a circa one quid share price, having been over four quid back in October (and having had an original IPO price of 500p a year before that). So is there an opportunity to buy now or is the smartest view to keep on avoiding?
I have been bearish on this for a while, unable to understand the valuation from the IPO. Shares in THG, The Hut Group as was, now trade at a new low of 95p. There are a couple of matters to discuss ahead of numbers on Thursday, notably a management departure and suggestions of late payments to suppliers. Is this window dressing as per Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) and its December 31 cash number, or something worse?
I start with a look at 5 duff IPOs and the questions folks did not ask: Peel Hunt (PEEL), musicMagpie (MMAG), Nightcap (NGHT), Parlsey Box (MEAL) and THG (THG). Then onto Russian stocks crashing and Eurasia Mining (EUA) delaying its own downfall but only pro tem. Finally a look at Marechale Capital (MAC) backed by my friend Luke but run by the Upper Clas twit of the year. What is Luke thinking of? I run through hard numbers.
I start with KPMG and another scandal but the real scandal is the way it deals with its employees who are fraud enablers by act or by omission or both. Then onto the Methodists and why its stance on Rio Tinto (RIO) is, I suggest, not what Jesus would have advocated. Moreover it highlights how ESG driven investing has created valuation anomalies on both the long and short side. Finally, THG (THG) and PE bid speculation.
I start with a weather report then consider Diageo (DGE) in light of Chris Bailey’s mea culpa bull piece earlier. I am not sure that I agree with him. Then I look at THG (THG) where an £8 million share dump by a PDMR announced on Friday shows why the bears were right and are still right. Steven Whitehead knows far more about share valuations than Tory Boy poseur and A Grade bullshitter Matt Moulding.,
I start with Mr Moulding who must be a decent chap as he gives vast sums to that beacon of integrity that is the Conservative & Unionist party. I discuss today’s horrible statement from THG (THG).The incident should also see firings at the Mail on Sunday and Sunday Times but it will not. I look at Omega Diagnostics (ODX) as it rushes towards a single figure share price and at Guild e-Sports (GILD), still a joke, notwithstanding today’s statement. Finally i look at the Sound Energy (SOU) bids for Lord Lucan’s Angus Energy (ANGS) Will Lucan get any more lucky?
These are the most-read articles and most listened-to Bearcasts of the week. The most-read non-Tom, non tip-of-the-year is Is it time for me to sell my Barclays shares by Chris Bailey.
I start by considering events in the Ukraine where my sympathies are, naturally, with Mother Russia but what could it all lead to? Then I consider why shares in Zak Mir’s Lift Ventures might fly but why his plan is flawed. Then onto THG (THG), Deepverge (DVRG) and Union Jack (UJO) and CEOs who say the shares are too cheap too often or who “fear” a takeover at this price.
Shares in The Hut Group, THG plc (THG), listed at 500p in September 2020, then zoomed to 800p but now trade below 200p. Even so this business is still valued by the market at £2.2 billion.
I name all those shareholders or their BB or Twitter names that Union Jack Oil (UJO) is using shareholder cash to troll in a most thoroughly unpleasant way as I exposed yesterday. I also comment on THG (THG), Cineworld (CINE), Tintra (TNT), Versarien (VRS) and then on the bursting of the Covid testing bubble with particular reference to Omega Diagnostics (ODX), Avacta (AVCT) and Novacyt (NCYT) which has its own BIG question to answer. Plus, of course, MyHealthChecked (MHC). I reference vaccination and covid rates in Israel in the podcast which is covered in more detail HERE.
I start with a discussion of why I have very wet feet. It was, a schoolboy error according to Joshua. Pictures explaining why can be found here. Then to some corrupt journalism in the Mail on Sunday and why it makes me more bearish on The Hut Group (THG) and a story about David Beckham cashing in which looks tome to be another top of the market signal.
Mr Moulding is clearly feeling the pressure at THG (THG). The interview here is remarkable and no doubt Moulding feels it will assist the share price. For all sorts of reasons I conclude that what comes over is a quite enormous sell signal.
Apparently The Hut Group (THG) ‘is a British e-commerce company headquartered at Manchester Airport … operates over 100 international websites that takes brands direct to consumer through its proprietary e-commerce platform’. How wonderful but the last time I wrote about the stock (here) observed that it was ‘over-loved’. Kind of interesting then to see a big 43% fall in the share price year-to-date.
Back in late October, I wrote about THG Holdings (THG), The Hut Group, observing then that company had been performing well since its September listing. Back in October, it estimated a 30% odd increase in Q4 sales across beauty and other third party products, but today’s announcement achieved a super dynamic just over 50%, led by Beauty, Nutrition and OnDemand businesses. So well done The Hut.
I have written a couple of times about THG Holdings (THG), The Hut Group, about which I essentially stated that you should not be chasing this one after the first day IPO pop from the 500p list price to a c. 600p share price. Well that was all fine and dandy, until the last week or so when the share has pushed up about 10% or so. Funnily enough, today’s third quarter update notes not only an acceleration in revenue growth (to 38.6% from 35.8% in H1) aided by strong progress in the direct-to-consumer and its Ingenuity Division (‘beauty manufacturing and product development for third parties’), but increased full year revenue growth target from a c. 25% increase to a new guidance range of ‘c. £1.48bn to c. £1.52bn (+30% to +33%)’…
Earlier this month I wrote a pre-IPO article about The Hut Group (THG), concluding you should ‘brace yourself for the newspapers falling all over this one the day after it lists post a day one share price romp’ and that essentially I was not going to chase it. This was due to a variety of concerns…